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| ||15 10 15
|LeadNow call is a bit bizarre, but won't change the outcome. The only local poll that put any candidate clearly in the lead was Mainstreet, which had the largest sample and showed a 16-point lead for JWR. If the majority of the LeadNow 5,400 vote pledgers were NDP-leaning anyhow, the vote pledge could in theory move at most 2,000 Liberal leaners (assuming roughly as many NDP as Liberal leaners participating in LeadNow and a handful of Greens) to the NDP. However, many won't follow the pledge in the face of evidence that seems to show that JWR is clearly the candidate with the best chance of winning. She seems to have a clear lead (based on Mainstreet, her lead would be about 7K of likely voters assuming 2011 turnout (when Liberals stayed home)), and will withstand the effect (if any) of the vote pledge.|
| ||15 10 14
|No idea how this goes, but there's a well-publicized live vote swap meet in Vancouver Thursday (Thornton Park, 5:30PM) so that Greens living here have the opportunity to swap for a more useful vote in a nearby riding, and NDP here have the opportunity to pitch an NDP vote here to Liberal supporters who really would rather make sure the Cons lose in Richmond Centre. Vancouver could flush all Cons into the Pacific, in fact the BC coast could be free of them entirely, with only a few thousand swappers.|
The communication across riding lines now matters more than the polls do.
| ||15 10 13
|New Mainstreet poll for the Friends of Canadian Broadcasting shows a strong Liberal lead: 44 LPC, 28 NDP, 20 CPC amongst decided voters; 39 LPC, 25 NDP, 17 CPC amongst all voters (11% undecided). |
I think this will be an easy win for Wilson-Raybould. If, as the national polls increasingly suggesting, Mr. Trudeau will be our next PM, expect to see Wilson-Raybould get a prominent cabinet job.
| ||15 10 14
|A new Environics riding poll for Vancouver-Granville was released today and it explains why this riding has remained Too Close To Call until the final week:|
| ||15 10 14
|Liberal rise in BC moves this from TCTC to red.|
| ||15 10 13
|Environics/LeadNow poll just released puts JWR ahead of Oreck and Broshko 35/33/28. While this is well within the margin of error, any Liberal-leaning strategic voters carefully watching local polling who were previously backing Oreck will now get behind JWR. If the Liberals continue to surge and NDP and Tories continue to fall, both will very soon have to focus their resources on holding their ground elsewhere.|
| ||15 10 13
|Further to my post of a few minutes ago, Mainstreet has JWR ahead of Oreck and Broshko 44/28/20. This poll is more along the lines of what everyone was expecting based on candidate strength and past voting patterns. Definitely time to call this one.|
| ||15 10 14
|Guess we know what people think of Sarah Silverman in this riding, Jody Wilson-Raybould p is going to Ottawa, Mainstreet Research poll shows|
| ||15 10 14
|Two riding level polls now show the Liberals in first. A Leadnow/Environics poll has Liberals 35, NDP 33, Tories 28. Even more significantly, a Friends of CBC/Mainstreet poll has Liberals 44, NDP 28, Tories 20. The Friends of CBC has a larger sample size and aligns more closely with what projections such as 308 have. |
Liberals likely have this one in the bag.
| ||15 10 13
|The 2011 CPC vote here likely includes far more former liberal voters than seats like south surrey and Delta. With the LPC up in polls and the CPC down its seats like those on the north shore and vancouver proper where we'll see the swing. LPC win around 40% of the vote|
| ||15 10 11
|With the NDP dropping nationally this one should be placed in the Liberal column. Rumours are that Oreck is running out of money (her advanced polls door knockers were black & white on cheap cardstock using elastic bands to hang them). At the same time, Wilson-Raybould has had several riding wide phone outs and mailers. Wouldn't be surprised if she dropped another one in this last week before E-Day.|
Also, strategic voting (which in tidings such as this the NDP pushed hard at first), could lead to further trouble for Oreck as last minute strategic voters see the NDP chances fall.
The Tories have been very quiet (using paid canvass & sign teams) but the change mentality in this riding is strong. Also, the Chinese community (likely a pillar of Broshko's election strategy) is split between the Tories & Grits.
Both the underlying fundamentals as well as current circumstances point towards a Liberal win.
| ||15 10 12
|Withdrawing my call because the NDP has wisely focused on winnable races including this one, and because Liberal energy is actually being unwisely dissipated including on meaningless spoiler campaigns like in Victoria. Where they really should have followed the Green lead in York Centre and endorsed a Green-for-Liberal vote swap. That could have held this also.|
There is supposed to be a large scale vote swap meeting to exchange votes between various Vancouver ridings. If it's big enough that'll swing this.
| ||15 10 09
|At this point in the race, this *should* be in Liberal column if you account for regional swings, riding history and riding demographics. Yet, the NDP's Mira Oreck is keeping this TCTC by running a strong campaign. |
If the NDP wins Vancouver Granville, it will be because of Mira Oreck and not Thomas Mulcair.
| ||15 10 07
|The new riding of Vancouver-Granville has been squished-in between the other five ridings of the City of Vancouver, and takes territory from four of them: Kingsway, Quadra, South, and Centre. Granville is a pretty high-income riding, and has a large Chinese-Canadian population. Some areas, such as Shaugnessy, are amoung the richest in BC. |
The Liberals are running a high profile candidate here, Jody Wilson-Raybould who is the regional chief in BC for the AFN. The Tories are running businessman Erin Broshko, the NDP are running activist (And the NDP's highest profile Jewish candidate) Mira Oreck, and the Greens are running Economist Michael Barkusky.
Roughly, I see this riding's results as being: LPC: 34%, CPC: 31%, NDP: 23%, GPC: 12%. A close race between very qualified candidates, but with the Liberals narrowly coming out on top.
Since the riding takes roughly from all four of those ridings evenly, I have broken it down into the territory previously held by the other four. For my predicted results, I have put them as such: LPC/CPC/NDP/GPC.
To the immediate south of Downtown, this area includes the neighborhood of Fairview, and is economically mixed. Last election, there was a three way tie between the CPC, NDP, and LPC, with the Greens also having extremely strong numbers. The Conservatives will likely lose much of the support they held last time in this area, with the Liberals and NDP drawing evenly from it. The Greens will likely have their strongest results in this area as well, with the target seat of Vancouver Centre to the North. 35/15/30/20.
A very wealthy area of the riding, in 2011 the CPC won almost every poll in this area, and well over 55% of the vote. It includes the neighborhoods of Shaugnessey and parts of Kerrisdale. It likely will not go quite so strongly to the CPC this time, and expect the Liberals to make major inroads, though still come. The NDP, meanwhile, will have a harder time expanding here. 35/40/15/10.
This comes from Kingsway, an NDP held riding to the East. The NDP won that seat in 2011 with 50% of the vote and the CPC received about 28% of the vote. Despite this, this area of Kingsway was the CPC's strongest, although the NDP still came on top. While the NDP should hold on to much of that support, the LPC's strong candidate will enable them to take support from both parties. 30/25/30/15.
Although slightly more middle class then the Quadra areas of the riding, the South part still has upper-middle class neighbourhoods of Oak Ridge and Marpole. With a heavy Chinese-Canadian population, these areas went to the Conservatives quite strongly (And specifically because of their candidate, Wai Young) Still, the Liberals should be able to win back some of that support, although the NDP will likely flounder here. 35/45/15/5
| ||15 10 04
|In the last weeks of the campaign, big leads tend to become bigger leads on the left, because even hardcore partisans abandon their party for ABC leader, which in this riding is clearly Liberal. NDP and Greens have so much infighting to do elsewhere, so many better prospects for donation, volunteering and vote swaps, that they are going to just abandon this. A Liberal lock at this point, given the Cons will not recover BC numbers in the cities or coasts - they are not trusted and will remain not trusted with the fate of BC's inland bays and rivers, nor with native relations.|
| ||15 09 24
|I am trying to find ways for the NDP or the Conservatives to take this riding and I think it is an uphill climb for either party.|
We have essentially two parts to this riding - one that is highly educated, left wing, condo dwelling with lots of renters. The second part of the riding is the wealthy conservative old elite mixed in with rich, rich Asians. The second part has some extraordinarily wealthy areas with houses worth in excess of $4 million and incomes north of $600,000/yr.
The left wing part of the riding is fine with either the NDP or the Liberals. Under no circumstances, will these apartment and condo dwelling highly educated professionals vote Conservative as they can't stand the attacks on government scientists etc.
The right wing millionaire '0.1 percenter' part would prefer the Conservatives but if they had to switch, they would vote Liberal and be OK with that. Under no circumstances will the rich part vote NDP - it's just not in BC's political culture for rich people especially the really rich people found here to vote NDP.
So you have a part that could go equally to the Liberals or NDP but will never vote Conservatives. And you have the other part that trends Conservatives but could vote Liberal and would never vote NDP.
Therefore, the odds favour the Liberals.
| ||15 09 23
|Insights West poll shows NDP maintaining a small lead. But still TCTC in my view.|
| ||15 09 18
|Let's do some math...|
In the 2011 election the Conservatives got 45.5% of the vote in BC. Currently they are polling around 32% in BC. This means that Conservative support in BC is currently about 70% what it was in 2011. Assuming uniform changes in voting patters across the province, then the CPC will get 24.7% of the vote in this riding. That takes them below what the Liberals got here in 2011 and almost tied with how well the NDP did. This does not take into account where those votes are going. These numbers work if that missing 30% support all sat home. They won't, most have migrated to other parties. In addition, my earlier assumption that changes are uniform across the province is an obvious oversimplification. The truth is there has been a greater shift away from the CPC in urban areas than elsewhere. That said, the 30% drop in CPC support is likely higher here. The math says that with current numbers, the CPC can not win this riding. While I am not certain who will come out on top, I'm pretty sure it won't be team blue.
| ||15 09 12
|At the moment, its a toss up between the Liberals and NDP. While this riding does lean Liberal in demographics, Mira Oreck is a strong candidate for the NDP. |
Two weeks ago, the NDP were poised for a sweep in BC. Right now their numbers seem shaky, but it will be premature to count them out.
The only way the Conservatives are in play in this riding is if they are charting majority territory.
| ||15 09 08
|Drove through the riding yesterday, and I must say I was stunned at the sea of blue signs throughout this riding. Add to this that the Conservatives have a great dynamic young candidate, and the Liberal candidate is a total nut job. This riding was almost handmade for the conservatives to have a shot at winning a Vancouver seat - taking the best polls out of South, Quadra and Centre. The Kingsway part of the riding won't make a difference for NDP fortunes. I believe this will be the one and only Conservative pick-up in all of Western Canada, and it will cost Wei Young her seat as this riding has adopted some of her best polls. |
| ||15 09 07
|It's hard to know what is going on in Vancouver Granville because there is contradictory information coming out right now.|
On the one hand, there was the riding poll in August showing the NDP ahead here, meanwhile the 308 projection shows this riding as an 85% chance of a Liberal win as of September 6, 2015.
The riding poll showing the NDP ahead was done last month at the height of the NDP surge in BC, and was done by an NDP-leaning pollster, so it's possible that it overestimated NDP support.
Since that time, the NDP numbers have begun to level off, and the Liberal numbers have begun to come up. Jody Wilson-Raybould is also higher-profile than Mira Oreck and was in place as the nominee many months earlier, and got a head start.
But taking all those factors into account, I agree with Teddy Boragina that for now one has to pick this as Too Close To Call until we see how the rest of the election unfolds.
| ||15 09 05
|I am not picking the 'No Opinion' option because I'm not sure, I am picking it because this is not a 'normal' riding. Given how it's made from bits of other ridings, it's really hard to tell how the 'feel' of the riding would be with uniform candidates. |
Regardless of the riding polls, I for one am not ready to make any calls heere.
| ||15 09 01
||Ron in Vancouver|
|I don't see this going to the NDP. Yes - the riding contains a big slice of the Fairview provincial riding that went NDP but it has a lot of Shaughnessy/South Granville wealthy voters. |
It's too rich to go NDP but too well educated to go Conservative.
It will go the way of neighbours Vancouver Quadra and Vancouver Centre.
| ||15 08 25
|Insights West poll out today has NDP at 41% in BC, with the Conservatives falling behind the Liberals. With those numbers, they should take at least 25 of the 42 ridings, including this one.|
| ||15 08 23
|I think people have to be cautious in using a riding poll conducted in August to predict what will happen here in 2 months. The NDP is getting higher than expected numbers throughout Vancouver this year and even appears competitive in the West Vancouver riding now.|
However, it's possible the BC NDP surge may level off by the time of the election, and one has to keep in mind the margin of error for riding polls, particularly when they show a 3-way split like this one.
It's also possible that the riding poll (conducted by Environics for a Progressive voting group) was off since it is in contradiction with Eric Grenier's 308 which shows a very high chance of this riding going Liberal.
So I think this riding is up in the air until further notice.
| ||15 08 22
|Although the newly created Vancouver-Granville looks like a 'naturally Liberal' riding on paper, according to an Environics conducted for Leadnow the NDP leads with 36%, the Tories are in second with 30% and the Liberals are a distant third at 24%. There is a precedent here: most of Granville falls in the provincial riding of Vancouver-Fairview, one of two Vancouver city ridings won by the NDP in the Adrian Dix debacle. And Mira Oreck, a key player in Vision Vancouver, looks well poised to appeal to the 'liberally minded' demographic the NDP is trying to cultivate. |
| ||15 08 24
|a 6% lead in a poll with a sub 500 person sample size is not enough to call this riding. Still a strong 3 way race however it would be surprising to see it go Tory or NDP. If the Liberals can't take affluent urban seats like this one oh boy are they in trouble.|
| ||15 08 21
|Although most projectors, like 308dotcom, have this seat going comfortably Liberal, a new Environics poll calls that into question. It has voting intentions at 32% NDP, 27% CPC, 21% LPC, 9% Green and 9% undecided (https://s3.amazonaws.com/leadnow/Environics-leadnow-aug-19-15.pdf). This new seat was always a very open question, and it appears that Mira Oreck may indeed have a good shot at heading to the House of Commons in October, with the help of the NDP's numbers in BC. Many affluent-educated voters, who are a key constituency for the Liberals, may be looking at the New Democrats much more seriously this time than they have in the past. |
If NDP numbers come back to earth, however, Liberal chances here may experience a boost.
| ||15 08 20
|LeadNow's Environics poll (Aug 19) on 13 swing ridings has the NDP up by 6 points in this riding of the Conservatives. Liberals way back in third. NDP - 36% / CPC - 30% / LPC - 24%. Margin of error 4.5%. This is an interesting riding. The higher density areas to the South and East are pretty fertile ground for the NDP. The candidate, Mira Oreck, is a well-known Vision Vancouver player which is the civic party in power that is a blend of federal New Democrats and Liberals. She has a strong shot to win here. |
| ||15 08 20
|Shocking poll by Environics for Leadnow, NDP leads Cons by 6 (36-30) in this riding with Liberals down to 24.|
| ||15 08 20
|We now have a Vancouver Granville riding poll from Environics! |
Decided voters: NDP 36, Cons 30, Libs 24
This leads to a pretty solid NDP call, that was not expected given the huge number of Liberal predictions for here. New ridings like this with no incumbents are often blank slates where one can place expectations and make calls not backed up by any riding history. It's also a lesson to be careful about relying on micro-regional polling aggregate averages.
| ||15 08 20
|An Environics poll of 482 people in this riding for Leadnow has the following results among decided voters:|
| ||15 08 21
|Leadnow's released a riding specific poll that puts the NDP ahead by 5%, followed by the CPC: the Grits are well back, even with a high profile candidate. Having worked at UBC I know a fair number of people who live in this riding--many of whom are profs, including several scientists. They pretty much all plan to vote strategically to get rid of Harper and his anti-science policies. Until this poll came out they were convinced that meant voting Liberal--even when most think Mulcair would be a better PM than Trudeau. This is going to be an epic election night...and a very long summer. |
| ||15 08 20
|Recent Environics riding-specific poll shows the NDP with a 6% lead over the Conservatives. Liberal vote down from 2011 Election.|
| ||15 08 21
|Funny. Previous voting would suggest a Liberal win this time, but a mid-August Environics poll for Leadnow puts the NDP slightly in the lead over the Cons: NDP 36%, CPC 30%, LPC 24%, Green 10%.|
| ||15 08 20
|There was a riding poll(Environics?)done here with the the following results :|
New Democrats 36%, Conservatives 30%, Liberals 24%, Greens 10%.
I would even argue the NDP would have more of an advantage since the Green vote came disproportionally from the parts of Vancouver Centre that were moved here, and this riding will likely not be targeted as much as that one by the Greens, which probably helps the NDP a bit more than the Liberals. Still though it will be a close race.
| ||15 08 12
|If Quadra, Centre and South are all Liberal calls, it's definitely time to move this back into the Liberal column. |
Since I last posted, the NDP has surged in BC, but, the Liberals remain at or above their 2008 support levels at which they still would have won this riding. The NDP nominated a decent candidate in Oreck, but very late and only after they had completely written this riding off. Many 2008/2011 NDP voters who committed to Jody in the past year are still voting for or helping Jody.
Despite the best efforts of many prominent Red Tories to get Jennifer Clarke the Conservative nomination, social conservative Broshko won. Many of these Red Tories who voted for Clarke or Lorne Mayencourt in Centre or Deborah Meredith in Quadra in 2008/2011 are going to vote for Jody. Broshko will probably place behind the NDP.
Liberal support dropped after C-51, but has rebounded after the first week of campaigning and the debate. 10 more weeks of campaigning is an eternity in politics, but Justin held his own in the debate and is a far better campaigner than Tom, Steve or Liz. Jody has still had a 1-year head start over everyone else, not just in being the candidate but also in terms of Liberals laying the groundwork for a win.
| ||15 08 11
|I originally had this as a no-brainer Liberal win, but that riding level poll in Vancouver South threw my entire thought process out the window in Vancouver. 27 Lib, 21 NDP, 17 Con is far below what would be expected for that riding given current provincial polling. Vancouver Granville was much closer than Vancouver South last election, so if we assume the ridings to be similar, the notion that Vancouver Granville could be close is not as unimaginable as it seemed before the poll. It makes you wonder where all the Liberal support in BC is coming from given all of these underwhelming riding-level polls. My guess is that the Liberals still win, since this doesn't appear to be the friendliest riding for the NDP or Conservatives. Like Quadra, it's too rich to vote NDP and too educated to vote Conservative. That being said, I wouldn't bet on it... |
| ||15 08 07
||Follow The Numbers|
|Why is this riding still listed as TCTC? The Liberals are far enough ahead in the polls in this riding that it would have to take a huge downturn in Liberal support for them to lose here. They have an 85% win confidence, according to threehundredeight as of this post. The Liberals are still very popular in Vancouver, whereas the NDP are strongest elsewhere in the province. The Conservatives have been slumping downwards in the polls and probably don't have a chance here.|
| ||15 06 14
|The problem with raw poll-by-poll transpositions in Frankenstein-assemblage seats like this is that they have to account for the individualized conditions within each of the component parts--that said, and even if it's presently notionally-by-way-of-elimination Conservative, this has all the earmarks of a classic 'grand coalition' seat of the sort that's traditionally favoured the Liberals. That is, if they don't wind up being 'Mulcair Liberals' instead--and it isn't like CPC's drawing Carole Taylor/Art Phillips types into its fold, either. The only thing certain is that it'd be the perfect open-seat choice for Mayor Gregor Robinson (whichever affiliation he chooses) in case he wanted to make a federal jump a la Art Phillips.|
| ||15 05 16
|The newly created riding, with riding boundaries, from SW Marine Drive in the south at W. 73rd Ave. to W 41st Ave. in the north (the southern riding half), the Liberals dominated and swept virtually all polling stations here pre-2008. In 2008, with Dion and the start of Liberal fall in BC, the CPC won more than half of the polling stations. In 2011, the CPC won virtually all of the polling stations herein. Basically red tory/blue liberal voters here. NDP not relevant. |
The next segment of the riding comprises 1/2 of the northern geographical half - between W. 41st Ave. and W. King Edward Ave. Again basically red tory/blue liberal voters here as well. NDP not relevant. Pre-2008 the Liberals won all polling stations herein. In 2008, polling stations were split 50/50 between the CPC and the Liberals. In 2011, the CPC won all polling stations here including those east of QE Park to Main St.
The other 1/2 of the northern half of Van-Granville is situate between W. King Edward Ave. and W. 16th Ave. and west of Oak St. is where Shaughnessy is situate. Again, pre-2008, the Liberals won most polling stations herein, but the CPC won all wealthy Shaughnessy polling stations in 2011. East of Oak St., the Liberals won most polling station herein in 2008, but in 2011 the NDP won all polling stations therein due to many 'red' liberals.
The far northern portion of the new riding, north of 16th Ave. to 4th/6th Ave., also contains many 'red' liberals. Back in 2008, the federal Liberals won almost all polling stations therein - the CPC 5, NDP 2. With the federal Liberal collapse in 2011, the polling stations herein were won roughly 1/3 each by the Liberals, CPC, and NDP. And both the CPC/NDP split 2nd place positions where the Liberals won their 1/3 of polling stations.
To summarize, in 2008 and 2011, the CPC made major inroads in this new riding with the mostly red tory/blue liberal voters moving from previously voting Liberal to CPC. Similarly, a much smaller number of red liberal voters moved from the Liberals to the NDP in 2011 with the then federal Liberal collapse. Also important to note that Vancouver Granville is very close to top-ranking Van-Quadra in terms of income demographics.
While the federal Liberal collapse in 2011 would have seen this riding as a 5% CPC marginal win with transposed results, the Liberals would have won the riding with a 2% margin over the CPC back in 2008. NDP irrelevant in this riding and could be considered vote spoilers at best.
In any event, Vancouver City proper has always been the Liberal base in BC and it's becoming apparent that will again be reverting to pre-2008 popular vote share levels here in election 2015. Liberal win. No doubt.
| ||15 05 09
|We live and work in this riding - the northern portion, to be exact. We believe this one is still too close to call. The main race is between the LPC and CPC, but if the NDP have good national numbers, there is an outside chance of an NDP victory as well. Now that a CPC candidate has been nominated, we think TCTC is the more correct prediction at this point. |
The areas of South Vancouver (south of 41st Ave) generally side with the CPC, while the Shaughnessy area (wealthy, educated) may be more inclined to vote LPC. The northern section is more left-leaning and could tip the balance for either of the three parties. While Raybould-Wilson is favoured to win with her star-power, local residents may resent the fact that she appeared to be parachuted in by JT. The local, grassroots Broschko may resonate with voters more. Of course, with no NDP candidate nominated just yet, it is hard to say how much vote-splitting will impact the riding. While, we would call Quadra and Centre for the LPC, this one is definitely TCTC.
| ||15 03 29
|While this was a close three way race last time around, I suspect the Liberals will take this with relative ease. The NDP and Greens are strong in the northern sections but know they cannot win this riding so many will vote strategically. Shaughnessy and Kerrisdale are part of the provincial riding of Vancouver-Quilchena which is one of the safest BC Liberal ridings, but unlike most BC Liberals elsewhere in the province, the type here are your wealthy university educated types so many will vote Liberal federally and even if some go Conservative it won't be enough to win this. Gordon Campbell running here as a Conservative candidate would help them, but still not enough to tip things in their favour as Harper is too widely despised here.|
| ||15 03 25
|Vancouver Granville will be the race to watch. We have a typically quite centre-left north portion of the riding, and a wealthy centre-right south portion of the riding. This could go many ways. The south could stay solidly blue, and help the CPC win while the LPC, NDP, Greens split the north. Or, the Liberals could make inroads in the south portion and pull a victory. NDP could also win, but the south portion of the riding is very hostile to the NDP, and they have the least room to grow of the three major parties. |
I don't think this riding should be called for the Liberals yet.
Plus, a previous poster suggested they think the CPC's anti-marijuana stance will hurt them here. In a riding that is almost 50% Chinese, and probably 70% immigrant, marijuana is generally frowned upon in these communities. Trudeau's pro-legalization stance won't help the Liberals here.
| ||15 03 22
|Redistribution makes this one an interesting 3-way split, however ultimately the odds-on favorite remains the Liberal. The NDP should come in a close second, though.|
| ||15 03 18
|Distrust any analysis from BC that says 'Greens are not a factor'. In 2011 over a thousand Green vote swaps were stranded due to lack of on-the-ground organization in Saanich-Gulf. It's ridings like Granville that will be getting that tactical injection at the last minute in 2015, as May no longer needs it. |
Greens either vote Green or they shift tactically to whoever they hate the least, but they always vote. The difference between the last intention polls in 2011 and the actual vote proves that half the Green vote shifts this way.
So if they decide to support the NDP here in return for the NDP not wasting effort against May or in Yukon or Calgary, the NDP will win.
Or, if the NDP decides to pick a pointless fight like Central Nova 2008, the Liberals will win.
But the Greens are always a factor. Because they don't always vote Green.
| ||15 03 17
|This riding may appears to be a 3-way race tilting CPC when you consider the 2011 results in isolation. News media also consistently calls this a riding to watch, a battleground or claim it was designed to favour the CPC.|
1) the LPC only won 13.4% in BC then - current polling has them consistently around 27-35%, and has not had them below 20% for years.
2) the LPC would have held the riding using 2008 results, when they won only 19.3% in BC.
3) the LPC is the only party to have nominated a candidate - Jody Wilson-Raybould in the summer. She has a huge head start in terms of fundraising and building a team.
a) The CPC has candidates interested in the nomination, but won't call a meeting - probably because none of their interested candidates so far would be competitive. Someone recently polled the riding to see if Gordon Campbell (CPC) could beat JWR (LPC). The results were never released, but my guess is GC was not even close. Why poll? i) to keep his name in the news, ii) Granville was a proxy for another riding to see if voters have generally forgiven him for HST, or iii) GC was a proxy for Kevin Falcon (think 'Campbell's heir', former Transport minister with lots of recent leadership supporters in Vancouver in a riding that wants a subway under Broadway). This was a few months ago. There seems to have been no activity since, which leads me to believe the results weren't promising.
b) many traditional NDP supporters want JWR to win and are supporting her. The NDP has either given up or is hoping a big name steps forward. They will have a hard time putting together a team keen on defeating JWR who are willing to split the vote, especially when they are trying to hold East and Kingsway and win Centre.
c) the Greens won a paltry 4,000 - even with Carr as their candidate in the old Centre (25% of the new Granville riding). They are simply not a factor.
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