08 05 07	binriso 156.34.209.176
Well first of all, the CPC are nothing here, their 19% or so result last time is probably the absolute ceiling. In 1984 the PC vote cratered here to 18% and a distant third place and that was in the Mulroney landslide where Waddell held the riding with over 50% of the votes. Alliance never got above 30% here and the CPC way below that. This is a probable Liberal win, but I wouldnt count out the NDP, They always get above 30%, except in 2000 and they held this riding since 1962 with only a close defeat in 1974 until it was redistricted into other ridings for the election in 1988. Might be pretty close, but leaning Liberal.
	08 04 26	BJ 70.70.170.21
Realistically, Emerson won't run here as a CPC candidate or anywhere else for that matter. This riding, in it various configurations, has been Liberal for around 15 years, since 1993. In both 2004 and 2006 both primary candidates (Emerason - Liberal, and Waddell - NDP) were caucasian candidates in a highly concentrated Chinese-Canadian riding. Chinese-Canadians are centre/centre-right on economic issues and have a strong affiliation to the federal Liberal brand. In 2004, the federal Liberals garnered 40.4% in this riding (29% provincially overall), while the federal NDP garnered 37.3% in this riding (27% provincially overall). With the same candidates, in 2006 the Liberals increased their vote to 43.3% (+3%) in this riding, while the NDP vote decreased to 33.6% (-4%). Those results contravened the overall BC federal results in 2006, whereby the NDP vote provincially inreased a couple of points and the Liberal vote decreased a couple of points. During the next election, the NDP has a caucasian ‘union’ candidate while the Liberals have a Chinese-Canadian candidate. Based upon the historical anethma by most Chinese-Canadians to unions as well as their traditional support for Chinese-Canadian candidates, this riding should continue to remain in Liberal hands. BTW, BC federal voting trends have been consistent for over the past year with the federal Liberals in BC increasing their vote over 2006 and the federal NDP losing roughly 1/3 of the BC federal vote from 2006 (29%). Eg, Ipsos - NDP (21%), Mustel - NDP (22%), and Angus-Reid - NDP 20%.
	08 02 14	A.S. 99.233.96.153
2006 was truly the year of the last fading wheeze of one federal NDP leadership candidate after another: Lorne Nystrom, Svend Robinson, and here, Ian Waddell. (Interestingly, the only comebacking NDP ex-parliamentarians elected were a pair of women: Dawn Black and Irene Mathyssen.) What happens now will depend upon whether Vancouver-Kingsway considers itself more ‘Vancouver East South’ (i.e. NDP-leaning) or ‘Vancouver South North’ (i.e. Liberal-leaning). The latter may have the upper hand; but, flip a coin, really. Emerson or not, CPC is a wild card at best.
	07 11 05	MH 76.64.198.115
The only certainty in this riding is that if David Emerson has the temerity to run he will get clobbered. And so will any other Conservative candidate. The Conservatives are moribund in Vancouver, something that doesn't seem likely to change in a hurry. Also, the last time that Vancouver Kingsway elected a Tory was in 1958, when John Browne won it by a mere 200 votes. The voters here resisted the Mulroney landslide in 1984. That said, both the Liberals and the NDP have a shot at the seat, but given the current weakness of the Grits, the NDP seems to have a slight edge.
	07 10 15	King of Kensington 70.52.184.229
Given the weakness of the Dion Liberals, this riding is a top target for the NDP. Don Davies seems like a decent candidate while the woman running for the Liberals is by most accounts very weak. Still Kerry Jang, a Chinese Canadian professor at UBC, may have been a better choice in this heavily Chinese riding. I really doubt Emerson wants to humiliate himself by running again. He can go back to the corporate world and maybe Harper will appoint him to the Senate someday. The Conservatives are of course would never take this riding unless hell freezes over.
	07 09 22	Pat Gibbons 24.85.75.131
There are three good reasons some Liberal supporters might swing NDP here. First, the Liberal national office parachuted Emerson in as part of the BC ‘dream team’ with Dosanjh--only to have Emerson defect. Second, after several electoral campaigns where vote splitting was emphasized, NDP candidates have won many seats--so much for a NDP vote=voting 4 Satan. Finally, the last time I looked out my window Kingsway was still in Vancouver and BC: people out here often vote based on snark and resentment. What better way to thumb off both the Liberals (parachuted candidate) and Tories (floor-crossing betrayor)?
	07 06 27	J.Mc. 64.183.138.101
While I agree that this riding will likely not go conservative, and that the bulk of the Emerson voters will continue to vote Liberal, an NDP victory is conceivable. The last few elections have been fairly close, so it is possible that the combination of the few votes Emerson will take with him to the Tories on the basis of personal loyalty plus the few Liberals who may vote NDP on the floor-crossing issue (there will be a few - not all voters think as rationally as the Poli-Sci types who frequent this website) may be enough to put the NDP over the top to a narrow victory. Definitely too close to call right now, though.
	07 06 06	British Columbian 213.33.77.174
The idea that people who voted for Emerson last time will vote NDP next time because they are upset with the switch is absolutely ridiculous. Instead of looking at the situation and coming up with a prediction, its as if Dippers see that they came close in 2004 (not so much in 2006), get excited, make an NDP prediction, and fill in a bunch of illogical dribble justify the prediction. The unlikely thought processes cited that would lead former Emerson voters to vote NDP are obvious partisan fabrications. I fail to understand why voters who are upset at Emerson would punish the Liberals. Liberal-Emerson voters won't vote NDP because they are angry about the switch; they aren?t mad at the Liberals, they're mad at Emerson. No former Emerson voter will vote NDP because they believe an NDP MP is less likely to cross the floor; Yuan will be running a campaign slamming Emerson for the switch, so there is no danger of her crossing the floor. The switches of Dave Haggard, Ujjal Dosanjh and Shirley Chan, not to mention the high profile Bob Rae in Ontario, are far from forgotten in BC. Given these relatively recent NDP defections, I doubt voters will make the distinction between party switchers and floor crossers and conclude that an NDP MP is less likely to cross the floor than Liberals. That is obviously just a weak NDP sales pitch that nobody is going to consider seriously. Angry former Emerson supporters are more likely to vote Liberal in an attempt to punish and humiliate Emerson by showing continued support for the party, and not the man. In order to win, the NDP needs to pick up votes from somewhere. They are behind in the polls BC, both provincially and federally. Only one poll from the last 2 months places the Federal NDP even within 7% of the Federal Liberals (See: http://www.nodice.ca/elections/canada/polls-britishcolumbia.php), and this lone poll shows a 1% improvement for both parties over the 2006 result, meaning no net gain for either party. Unless the polls turn around, the NDP is not going to win more votes in Kingsway net of increased support for the party province-wide. Can anyone honestly believe that people who voted for a big business executive will now vote NDP? People who voted for Emerson were either solid Liberal voters or Liberal-Conservative swing voters who were impressed with his business credentials. People don?t vote for the former CEO of a major forestry corporation and then vote for a socialist. If anything, left-leaning or green Liberals who voted NDP instead of for the former forestry executive will vote Liberal next time. The Greens only won 1,300 votes in 2006, so the NDP can?t expect to steal many of those. People who voted for Kanman Wong will certainly not be voting NDP; if anything, Chinese voters who wanted to support a fellow Chinese Canadian voted Conservative in 2006 and will vote for Yuan next time. The NDP provincial election machine that won back the Kingsway and Kensington provincial ridings in 2005 were not even able to even maintain Waddell?s support in 2006, while the Liberals picked up 2,800 more votes. Besides, Don Davies is nowhere near as popular as Ian Waddell, nor does he have the experience or profile that was so often cited in 2004 and 2006 NDP, which of course turned out to be incorrect. The NDP have a 4,500-vote deficit and Dippers are simply spinning reality to justify their NDP predictions. They won?t be winning former Emerson votes, Conservative votes, or Green votes. The Liberals can capitalize on the anti-Emerson sentiment, benefit from the Green alliance, and win ethnic Chinese voters in a riding with such a significant Chinese population. And I think that everyone agrees that Emerson is toast; this is not a Conservative riding, and former Emerson voters are furious. Not only is Yuan an attractive candidate, but she is also running for the strongest federal party in the riding. The Liberals will take this one back.
	07 05 24	Chris L 64.59.144.85
The NDP have always had a close race with the Liberals in this riding. The NDP has strong BCNDP support here and with the famous Emerson doing what he did and getting major negative publicity for it, this riding is going straight to NDP no matter how good the Liberal candidate is and conservatives will not be making $1.50 from this riding.
	07 05 08	British Columbian 143.161.248.25
Wendy Yuan, a well- educated candidate with a successful international business career, is exactly what the Liberals need to hold the riding. She is not only the perfect candidate to attract the same fiscally-conservative voters that elected Emerson in the past, but also a role model for the Chinese-Canadians, who compose a significant proportion of the population. Steve L. contradicts himself when he claims ‘Emerson will be lucky to get 10,000 votes’ and then that Liberal-Conservative vote splitting will leave the NDP ‘unharmed,’ concluding that they will therefore win the riding. Assuming Emerson is ‘lucky’ and wins 10,000 votes, he only wins 1,300 more votes than the previous Tory candidate. If the ‘Liberal-Conservative’ vote split gives the Tories that 1,300, then the Liberals would still win 2,200 more votes than the ‘unharmed’ NDP. The NDP needs to do more than hold it’s current vote share to win this riding; they lost by over 4,500 last time, and they aren’t going to win many former Emerson votes. David Emerson, former CEO of Canfor, is a business executive, and the people who voted for him were either die-hard Liberals or fiscal conservative swing voters who would never vote NDP. The NDP could only win the riding if Emerson wins significantly MORE than 10,000 votes. If, as he says, the conservatives still win less than 10,000, then there actually will not have been any significant vote splitting at all. Clearly Steve’s conclusion has been influenced by faulty logic. The NDP will not steal votes from the Liberals either. As Harry pointed out, the NDP are way down in BC. In the 2006 election, the Liberals won 27.6% of the vote in BC, and the NDP won 28.6%. A May 3rd Ipsos-Reid poll of BC places the Liberals at 32 (+ 4%, but virtually unchanged within MoE) and the NDP at 15 (-14%, YIKES!). http://www.nodice.ca/elections/canada/polls-britishcolumbia.php Emerson will lose virtually all of the personal support he had in the past two elections. Previous supporters will not follow him to the Conservatives: those that for the candidate were all betrayed, and the rest just voted for the party. If he runs here, he will place a distant third and will indeed be lucky to win 10,000 votes. The Liberals will hold the riding in the next election, and this time, may even hold it after the election.
	07 04 16	any way 208.181.192.29
Kevin Potvin had won the Green Party nomination for Vancouver-Kingsway, but last weekend there was a move to discredit Potvin as being ‘Pro 911’, and May announced Potvin's candidacy at the SAME press conference that she and Dion announced a non-aggression pact between Liberals and Greens. May didn't consult with the members of her party, she just let Potvin drop from her roster in a wave of dubious media attention. Potvin is immersed in East Vancouver's Indie Media scene, owns a small magazine shop, teaches courses part-time, writes for The Courier, and is very active in our local community. Potvin would have been the best candidate for the job, but he was sold off in a back room deal last weekend.
	07 04 15	Steve L. 24.84.150.65
David Emerson will be lucky if he can get more than 10000 votes here. but i think most of the vote-splitting will occur within the Liberal-Conservative divide, leaving the NDP unharmed.
	07 04 12	Brian Appel 64.230.124.52
I think the person who predicted a Green victory must be smoking some of BC's finest. The only Green candidate who could potentially win here might be David Suzuki, but other than that the fight here is between the Liberals and the NDP. I just don't see the Greens picking up the thousands of votes that would be needed to win here. In this largely-Asian riding, Vancouver Kingsway may actually be a good fit for Yuan's slightly right-of-centre views. Easy Liberal win for Wendy.
	07 04 12	rodney 209.121.11.24
The Liberal's are weak enough that this should be an NDP lock. The Conservatives have never done well here, but might siphon off enough Liberal votes that it'll make it really easy NDP territory. The Green's might have some influence, and will do better than last time but I can't see them getting very far.
	07 04 10	24.81.131.134
There is the highest levels of protest voting here, with so many open wounds with what Emerson did. Liberals are unhappy with unknown candidate who in 2004 stepped aside for Emerson. Conservatives will get fewer votes because of flip flop, and without Emerson to vote for. NDP selected a Teamsters Union lawyer when NDP voters are cool to union bosses. Most importantly, the Green candidate, a long-time community paper columnist, prominent small business person, known civic campaigner who got 11,000 votes, has a bigger public profile than any other candidate in the riding, maybe the only riding in Canada where this is the case.
	07 04 07	Harry 24.84.14.228
Isn't even going to be close. Riding is predominantly Chinese, and Sophia Leung, former no-name Liberal MP did better than star David Emerson. Wendy Yuan is a more energetic, hardworking version of Sophia Leung. The Tories are hated here. Absolutely despised. And the NDP is weaker than it has been in a long, long time.
	07 04 06	J.F. Breton 70.81.76.2
Manifestement, les Conservateurs n'ont pas de chance ici, encore moins avec Emerson le transfuge. Ceci étant dit, il y aura tout de même un certain transfert de vote entre le PCC et le PLC. Je compte donc sur une victoire du NPD se faufilant entre le PCC et le PLC.
	07 04 01	24.81.18.126
I think this one will go NDP, depending on how well they do nationally. The Conservatives do not have much of a chance here, Emerson or not. The Liberals don't have a lousy candidate. I think she probably chose the wrong riding to run in as she is pro-lifer in the midst of liberal Vancouver!
	07 03 22	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 67.71.57.99
A riding that will feature a lot of saber rattling but there is no clear front runner yet. Emerson & the Conservatives will claim they can keep this riding, but they haven't a prayer. This is a left-leaning riding and the Liberals and NDP will be fighting over the mess left after the floor crossing. We say it will probably go (stay) Liberal but honestly it's too early for an accurate prediction.
	07 03 21	M. Lunn 74.99.130.109
David Emerson is toast if he runs here and will get clobbered coming in third. The question is whether this goes Liberal or NDP. Going Liberal would get someone who might possibly be in government, but considering the amount of floor crossing between the two parties, voting NDP would at ensure the MP elected doesn't cross the floor (NDP almost never has floor crossers).
	07 03 21	Jack Cox 142.55.209.48
Not even close here, Emerson is going to be thrown out on his butt by everyone here. I don't think people are ever going to forget what Emerson did to them. He will most certainly lose.
	07 03 20	Brian Appel 69.70.112.147
This is going to be a really interesting race. The Liberals have been waiting since Emerson crossed the floor to run against him in an election. And the NDP have come so close twice before to winning the seat. Wendy Yuan is running for the Liberals and I think she'll take the seat, whether or not Emerson decides to run under the Conservative banner.