Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Vancouver Quadra

Prediction Changed
2009-08-25 16:11:00

Constituency Profile


Elkins, Victor Edward

Meredith, Deborah

Murray, Joyce

Shaw, Laura-Leah

Joyce Murray

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • vancouver-centre (68/275 Polls)
  • vancouver-quadra (166/232 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 27 rsg
    There is absolutely, positively, no chance at all that this riding will go Conservative. i drive through this riding, through all parts of it, and it's huge riding. Joyce murray is far, far ahead in the sign count, oh and yes, i know signs don't vote but i think it's pretty clear from previous elections that the electorate in Vancouver-Quadra have rejected the Conservatives and their right wing policies. It won't be that close at all.
    11 04 28 Marco Ricci
    Apparently the Liberals are still polling well in the Vancouver area itself, despite their low provincial/national numbers. That means they can still hold onto this seat. It is also a seat that stayed Liberal in 1984 despite the Conservatives winning a huge majority under Mulroney. The question is whether NDP voters will vote NDP, or vote Liberal to block the Conservatives here.
    11 04 26 Dr. Nguyen Van Falk
    It's ridiculous that this riding was called for the Liberals back in 2009, based on a small number of submissions. My prediction is that this riding will be a narrow Conservative win. Though the Liberals won this riding by about 9 percent in 2008, the current Liberal campaign has been weak nationwide. The NDP has run a strong campaign, especially in BC, and will siphon off Liberal votes in Vancouver-Quadra. The Conservatives will also gain votes, in light of their relatively strong campaign and the ever-increasing affluence of this riding. The student population will be lower, which would be beneficial for the Liberals, what with classes at UBC being done. Though I agree with the last poster that the Jewish population in this riding isn't significant enough to tip the balance in and of itself, in a close race it could make the difference.
    11 04 24 MF
    Quadra will go Tory because of the ‘Jewish vote’...seriously? First of all, the Jewish population in Vancouver isn't all that big and even in Quadra I don't think they're more than 5% of the population. And even *if* there was a big swing to the Conservatives among Jewish voters in Quadra (and I have my doubts), it wouldn't be enough to defeat the Liberals. Second, the Jewish population in Quadra is like that of St. Paul's in Toronto - chock full of small-’l’ liberal intelligentsia and urban professional types who would never vote Tory.
    11 04 23 From the Left Coast
    Wow, not a lot of recent submission. Want to here what others think. UBC is going to be out on election day for summer break; so the minimal amount of youth vote is going down even lower, to the detriment to either the Lib or NDP. This has a very large Jewish population in BC, from every article I read on globe and mail and the national post talks about the shifting Jewish vote from Lib to Con.
    Example 1) http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/opinion/fyi/jewish-vote-too-shifts-tory-ward-120533444.html
    This riding may just flip due to incremental increase of Con vote, and vote migration from Lib to NDP.
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    The Tories have a ceiling in the high 30s here and it was only close in the one by-election due to the strong showing by the NDP and Green Party. You can expect they will unite behind Joyce Murray whatever their misgivings are to ensure this doesn't go Tory. Also this includes Kitsilano and the university while areas like Kerrisdale and Shaughnessy may be more favourable to the Tories, but hardly Tory strongholds and certainly not enough to offset their weaknesses on the north side. An interesting side note is using the provincial boundaries, the Tories would have won Vancouver-Quilchena, but got clobbered in Vancouver-Point Grey, In fact Vancouver-Point Grey is more centre-left than centre-right and I suspect the BC Liberal wins there had more to do with the fact this was the premier's own riding.
    11 04 14 Tony Ducey
    Murray's weak but if this riding can go Liberal during the 1984 election then it can go Liberal in 2011 when we may see a CPC majority but not as strong as the PC majority of 1984.
    11 04 05 M. Lunn
    A mixture of the university, Kitsilano which is home to many Yuppies and the more affluent neighbourhoods of Kerrisdale and Shaughnessy which have a large wealthy senior population. Definitely favours the Liberals so long as the Greens and NDP don't do to well as the Tories will probably get in around 35%.
    11 02 06 Marco Ricci
    I think Joyce Murray will retain this for the Liberals for now. I don't see why it would go Conservative. After a very poor result in the by-election a few years ago, Murray came back during the 2008 general election and won the riding by a much larger margin, and managed to do so despite the fact that the Liberal vote collapsed in British Columbia in 08. On top of that she is now the incumbent with a couple of years in Parliament behind her that gives her more name recognition.
    11 02 03 Quadra
    The CPC candidate had her chance in picking this up in the by-election a few years ago. She couldn't get the job done last time and won't get it done this time. I am by no means a fan of the incumbent or the LPC and why the CPC has gone back to the well with the same candidate is beyond me.
    09 10 07
    The conservative candidate had the 3rd most votes of ANY vancouver candidate last time, unfortunately for her one of the two the had more votes then her was also running in Vancouver quadra. Things have changed though; The conservatives have weathered the economic storm unscathed while the liberals are once again having leadership issues. Its not unrealistic to think this well educated riding would dump a backbench opposition mp in favour of a potential cabinet minister.
    09 09 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    This riding isn't exactly a bastion of NDP supporters any more than places like St Paul's or Lac-St-Louis are. The help that the NDP voters might have given to the Liberals to block the CPC won't be much of an effect this time now that the Dion debacle has passed. It's not going to be a margin of victory ala Stephen Owen but it will be better than last time.
    09 09 02
    Don't call this one for the Liberals just yet. A lot of NDP voters voted Liberal to a) block the Conservatives from winning after the results of the close bye-election, and b) the NDP ran their candidate very late into the campaign. This time, many NDP voters won't be comfortable with Ignatieff's right wing slant, and the NDP will probably run a much better campaign. The Conservatives will also likely gain some votes because Joyce Murray isn't that popular in this riding, not nearly as popular as Stephen Owen. This could mean the Conservatives may win with a good candidate.
    09 08 31 MF
    Van Quadra is arguably the safest seat for the Liberals in Western Canada. The Liberals were able to win this by a comfortable margin under the Dion debacle when they were at an all-time low of 19% of the popular vote in B.C. and the Tories will almost certainly be down from the 44% they received in B.C. last time. It has an affluent, urban professional demographic that is very comfortable with the Liberals and not all that big on the Tories.
    09 08 24 a.L.
    Sadly, this stays Liberal. Joyce Murray is a weak MP and a wasted riding for the Liberals. If they had a star in this safe riding, it would help them overall in the area and it would be a cabinet minister in waiting. Murray wins in spite of herself.
    09 08 23
    This riding is not the massive Liberal stronghold it used to be, but it is still a safe one. Murray is a hard worker and will hold this riding despite what may occur in other BC ridings. If the CPC wants to have a shot of winning, they will have to run a very well known and prominent candidate; otherwise, this will stay in the Liberal fold.

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