Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2009/10

Vancouver Quadra


Prediction Changed
2009-08-25 16:11:11
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Incumbent:
Joyce Murray

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • vancouver-centre (68/275 Polls)
  • vancouver-quadra (166/232 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


  •  


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    09 10 07
    24.207.46.228
    The conservative candidate had the 3rd most votes of ANY vancouver candidate last time, unfortunately for her one of the two the had more votes then her was also running in Vancouver quadra. Things have changed though; The conservatives have weathered the economic storm unscathed while the liberals are once again having leadership issues. Its not unrealistic to think this well educated riding would dump a backbench opposition mp in favour of a potential cabinet minister.
    09 09 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    204.187.16.113
    This riding isn't exactly a bastion of NDP supporters any more than places like St Paul's or Lac-St-Louis are. The help that the NDP voters might have given to the Liberals to block the CPC won't be much of an effect this time now that the Dion debacle has passed. It's not going to be a margin of victory ala Stephen Owen but it will be better than last time.
    09 09 02
    96.49.104.25
    Don't call this one for the Liberals just yet. A lot of NDP voters voted Liberal to a) block the Conservatives from winning after the results of the close bye-election, and b) the NDP ran their candidate very late into the campaign. This time, many NDP voters won't be comfortable with Ignatieff's right wing slant, and the NDP will probably run a much better campaign. The Conservatives will also likely gain some votes because Joyce Murray isn't that popular in this riding, not nearly as popular as Stephen Owen. This could mean the Conservatives may win with a good candidate.
    09 08 31 MF
    70.48.66.47
    Van Quadra is arguably the safest seat for the Liberals in Western Canada. The Liberals were able to win this by a comfortable margin under the Dion debacle when they were at an all-time low of 19% of the popular vote in B.C. and the Tories will almost certainly be down from the 44% they received in B.C. last time. It has an affluent, urban professional demographic that is very comfortable with the Liberals and not all that big on the Tories.
    09 08 24 a.L.
    24.215.111.194
    Sadly, this stays Liberal. Joyce Murray is a weak MP and a wasted riding for the Liberals. If they had a star in this safe riding, it would help them overall in the area and it would be a cabinet minister in waiting. Murray wins in spite of herself.
    09 08 23
    96.49.110.185
    This riding is not the massive Liberal stronghold it used to be, but it is still a safe one. Murray is a hard worker and will hold this riding despite what may occur in other BC ridings. If the CPC wants to have a shot of winning, they will have to run a very well known and prominent candidate; otherwise, this will stay in the Liberal fold.



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