Prediction Changed
2:41 PM 08/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

Vancouver Quadra
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Barens, Norris
New Democratic
Caplan, David
Grice, Dan
Meredith, Deborah
Murray, Joyce

Joyce Murray

2006 Result:
Stephen Owen **
Stephen Rogers
David Askew
Ben West
Betty Krawczyk
Marc Boyer
Donovan Young

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 09 Brenton
The results of the by-election shouldn't be used to inform the results this time. A really low voter turn-out meant Joyce Murray barely won the by-election. Many Liberals stayed home, thinking it was a safe Liberal seat. Watch for them to come out in numbers for this election. This won't be as close as some predict.
08 10 06 ACMEgeek
Strangely, a bunch of David Caplan arterials showed up over the weekend; clearly the local NDP riding association is still functioning. Having said that, I'm still seeing more Joyce Murray signs than anything else -- not just the big arterials, but the smaller lawn signs on minor streets throughout the Point Grey/Dunbar areas. With Conservative support slipping as the economy slows, and Deb Meredith having been unable to win the riding in the byelection, this seat only goes blue if the NDP and Greens manage to split the progressive vote.
08 10 04 Vancouver guy
In the end, I suspect Joyce Murray will narrowly hold onto this one. The NDP's candidate is virtually not campaigning at all, there are no signs anywhere, nor did he show up to UBC when all the other candidates were there to promote themselves at a screening of leader's debate. After a strong endorsement from ‘The Georgia Straight’ in the by-election Green candidate took a strong 13% of the vote, a number that could increase because of his successes last time and the NDP not really running here. However, Murray will benefit from some of the NDP as well as a stronger voter turnout than during the by-election.
08 10 04 southernontarioan
A couple of notes:
1) The NDP ran an incredibly weak candidate during the by-election and still won 14% of the vote. The NDP are usually a non-factor in the race anyways too (in the past 3 elections they won ~14% each time). At most they drop another 5% because the NDP is still on the ballot! Of that assume it splits 50-50 for the Libs-Greens and the race is still tight. (By-election results were 36-36-14-13)
That makes it say 39-36-9-16.
2) SC notes that in swing ridings in BC the Grits are down ~5% and the Tories up ~5%.
That makes it say 35-41-9-16
With that, I think its fair to say its going Tory.
08 09 29 Seth
Yesterday I spoke to someone who has been a card carrying NDP member since the 1960s and has lived in Quadra the whole time. He is voting Liberal for the first time to ensure that the Tories do not pick this up. Strategic voting this time will keep out the Conservatives out. Easy Liberal hold.
08 09 29 Dunbar Watcher
The candidate issues around the NDP mean that Dan Grice - an excellent candidate, btw, and very hard working! - should pick up votes. These would otherwise have gone to Murray. The net effect will be Meredith taking Quadra for the Conservatives.
08 09 28 david m.
no matter how disastrously the campaign and leader debates go for the liberals, i refuse to believe that the conservatives have any shot here. the close by-election result last time was a total fluke, and voters in this riding have a long history of strategic voting (i cut my teeth here) - even a milquetoast candidate like murray couldn't lose here in a general election. ujjal's got the safest of all seats, but murray is safer than hedy, that's for sure.
08 09 27
The Quadra Equation: Liberal vote collapse in BC + Deb Meredith winning sign war + NDP vote going Green for most part (many NDPers will not vote for Gordon Campbell minister Joyce Murray) + ultra close by-election + momentum and high polling numbers for the Conservatives = CPC PICKUP.
08 09 26 Vortigern
I lived in this riding for quite some time, and for long enough to recall that zealous Reform/Alliance/Conservative types hyped their prospects in the last three general elections, only to fall well short on the day.
Granted, the by-election was a scare for the Liberals, but while it has encouraged the right, that scare is just as likely to encourage moderately progressive voters to vote strategically, despite the weaknesses of Joyce Murray.
08 09 25 The Dude Abides
I have to change my prediction to the Liberals. Now that BC NDPers are dropping out with the flimsiest of excuses in ridings where they split the lefty vote, giving Liberal candidates the opportunity to win close races, Jack Laytons promise to work in coalition with the Libs is coming to fruition.
08 09 25 WD
This time, this riding goes Conservative. Deb Meredith has deep roots in the riding, and is a very strong candidate. It will be close, and the non-existent NDP campaign in Quadra helps the Liberals and Greens. However, in 2004 and 2006 the riding was not so much a safe Liberal riding as a safe Stephen Owen riding. Mr. Owen drew support from all quarters including traditional NDP voters, and from among those more inclined towards the Conservatives.
It is unlikely many of those NDP voters are going to forgive Joyce Murray for being in Gordon Campbell's cabinet provincially, and the continued progression of Stephane Dion into NDP territory on the policy front is not sitting too well with those not enamored of the NDP's creed.
08 09 23 Joey Joe Joe
With No NDP candidate I don't see how this is competitive.
Owens won by 12,000 in a bad 2006 election for liberals. 9,000 NDP votes are up for grabs even if everyone when conservative the liberal would still win.
08 09 23 Dunbar Watcher
Will be close in Quadra, but this time I think Meredith will pull ahead of Murray. So far the sign war in the mid-riding would seem to favour the Libs, but it's still not even mid-campaign. What's interesting to me is the younger voters talking over coffee - there's a real block of votes there talking up the Conservatives.
08 09 22 Matt N
With no NDP candidate, and apparently none being nominated, and the nomination deadline having passed already, this riding should be a Liberal lock, especially given that Joyce has been campaigning since she won, holding ten town halls in 15 weeks during the summer.
08 09 20
Whoever said Joyce Murray had no campaign presence during the by-election was wrong. Joyce Murray knocked on doors, had plenty of signs up, attended the debates. Yet, she still only won by 0.5% of the vote. Both the Liberals and Conservatives are a full force in this riding right now. The Conservatives have tons of signs up on private property, so if anything, it's definitely a sign (no pun intended) of a close race. Haven't received any literature from the Conservatives so far, but I am guessing they're saving resources until the last 2 weeks of the campaign, when the voters will actually be paying closer attention to the campaigns.
I also don't see NDP voters flocking to Murray. She is hardly a beacon of shimmering light, especially during her tenure as a Minister in Campbell's government. Instead, I see the majority of them going Green. And if the NDP find a new candidate, then there's no discussion here.
08 09 19 SJ
NDP candidate resigned today, in the wake of the Dana Larsen resignation in West Van/Sunshine Coast/Sea to Sky -- (memo: avoid posting video of yourself breaking the law on the toobz, even if it's a law you disagree with). Unless the NDP vote flees green, this resignation makes this virtually a Liberal lock, even if the Tory vote goes up (and it will).
08 09 19 Seth
Liberals who were asleep during the byelection have woken up with a start. When this riding voted Tory, they elected Red Tories. The Red Tories are gone from the Conservatives; gone to the Liberals and Greens. Easy Liberal hold.
Liberals 42%
Conservatives 34%
NDP 13%
Green 11%
08 09 18 E. L. Smerl
Too close to call, but likely a Conservative win - revisit later on. They were much invigorated, and Liberals disheartened, by the too-close byelection result. And that was before the carbon tax flap. So this would be a close Conservative win. But, Stephen Harper desperately needs a Vancouver MP to replace Emerson and will spend a lot of time and money on this. The Liberals are going to have to do more work than any other BC riding to keep this one, and it's not clear they have the capacity to do it.
08 09 16
The Liberals were pretty clearly the first out of the gate in the riding -- Joyce Murray's signs were up before those of anyone else (at least through the Point Grey/Dunbar area), with Dan Grice's appearing very shortly thereafter. I've only seen Deb Meredith's signs over the last few days, and their numbers pale in comparison to those of Murray and Grice (though I haven't been down Marine Drive, traditionally the most Conservative part of the riding). Murray is also the only candidate whose campaign literature has arrived, at least at our house. Given that she was able to hold the seat with virtually no campaign presence during the by-election, and given the preponderance of red signs (on side streets as well as arteries), I don't see Meredith winning this time out.
As someone else wrote, the Conservatives' best chance was in the by-election, and they did not capitalize.
08 09 15
I love how liberals continue to underestimate the conservative chances here. You see I did not think it was possible either but was proven wrong, and my response wasn't holy crap that was close but just a fluke, it was more along the lines HOLY S$@# the conservatives are a lot stronger in Vancouver and the lower mainland than I thought. But you know whatever continue to underestimate them and then when they do win here then you can continue to claim it as simply a fluke. As for my prediction, with the Conservatives rising nationally, and in BC and in the lower mainland specifically, this riding is defiantly TCTC
08 09 13
Safe Liberal again,
The UBC student vote is overrated. A vast majority of them are too apathetic to vote -- as bad as that is, it is the reality. And those that do vote are probably evenly split between all four parties. I also don't see the NDP vote going to the Liberals en masse in this riding because Murray is a former B.C. Liberal provincial cabinet minister under the right-wing Campbell government. She has been criticized by some for her environmental policies during her tenure.
In terms of the sign war, it is too early to comment on that. This riding, which barely has signs, only has a couple Murray signs and no Meredith signs. I expect that next week the Conservatives will start to get their signs up, as will the NDP and Greens.
As of right now, a CTV commissioned poll shows Conservatives leading in specified battleground ridings -- Vancouver Quadra being one of them. That means the Conservatives are making inroads into the urban vote.
A Deborah Meredith, Conservative win is a high possibility here.
08 09 11 newwestreality
Joyce Murray managed to continue her sparkling electoral record (of flaming out) by almost completely wiping out a previous 10000 plus vote win for the Liberals in this riding. If during the By Election Harper had even stuck his nose into the riding to do some backing up of Meredith, she would have won in a walk. Conservatives in the nomination period heralded Quadra as a ‘break through.’ I actually think that the central campaign committee of the Conservatives fumbled this riding away in the By Election. In Quadra, I don't see them making the same mistake twice. There were rumbles of Emerson leaving Kingsway to take out Murray, but he just turned tail instead. Meredith is a well spoken candidate, while Murray is there solely because she backed Dion in the leadership race. Back to the political scrap heap for Joyce Murray on election day. A cup of coffee in parliament... thats all.
08 09 11 Safe Liberal again
Tories don't realize that people here are urban and educated, but not all wealthy. There are a lot of basements, towers and low-rises. Like most such urban areas, it's Liberal country - if the Tories ever get close, it scares NDP votes to the Liberals. Joyce Murray will have an easy time convincing UBC students and the Kitsilano granolaheads that they'd better vote Liberal or their next MP could be with Stephen Harper's party. The NDP will never win here, and their voters know it. Besides, Joyce's winning the sign war easily - a sign of much tighter campaign organization than in the byelection.
08 09 09 Jeffrey
The byelection had the conservatives behind by only 151 votes, although the turnout was low, with the 3 major parties recieving a total combined number of votes barely 50% of the previous general election (though the Greens actually had more votes - a St. Patrick's Day bump?). And in that vote, the Liberals and the NDP were doing much worse proportionately compared to the Conservative candidate who will be running again. It would seem that with just a little more growth in support for the Conservatives, and a sufficiently split vote between liberals, NDP, and Greens could result in a Conservative win. Not to mention that the election is scheduled for the day after the Thanksgiving long weekend; how many UBC students will be voting in their home districts (by mail or in person) because of that? That could be a bit of a blow to the Liberal, NDP, and Green causes here with the large student population.
08 09 08 Al
Huge potential steal for CPC here.
1) Look at how well the CPC did in the last by-election
2) CPC support is up all over the Lower Mainland
3) Liberal support is down all over the Lower Mainland
4) NDP and Green support is up in the area
This riding needs to shift into the ‘Too close to call’ category.
08 09 08
with the recent poll of the ‘swing’ ridings in BC putting the tories at 45% and the libs way down at 25% i think this one is going to go conservative.
08 09 03 Ratel
I agree this one will be pretty close but will still end up going Liberal. The Emerson campaign and the Conservatives seem to be saying he won't be running here. I am of the opinion that would actually hurt their chances, university students love a good protest and UBC student are allowed to vote in this riding even if they live elsewhere in Canada. He would be harassed mercilessly. But I also think that the by election was closer than it will be this time because people had the freedom to vote green and NDP with less repercussions. In the full election, knowing these parties cannot win in Quadra, strategic voting will lean heavily Liberal. I will be attending a meeting on the Liberal's Green plan in a few weeks and will get a better feel for things at that point.
08 09 02 PY
As a business law professor at UBC, I wouldn't be surprised if Deborah Meredith might have had some help from some of her students, regardless of how well-connected they might be in local Tory circles. But at the risk of sounding like a broken record, I must stress that if John Turner was good enough to have been the MP here during his stint as Liberal leader, then surely the same courtesy will be extended to Joyce Murray and perhaps Dion as well.
08 09 01 Warren
I am afraid tories have lost their best chance to win back the riding. Had they worked harder, they could have won. If this is a match between conservatives and liberals, conservatives already maximized their turnout in the last by-election and the remaining margin is all for liberals to gain. But it could still go conservatives if Joyce Murray slips since she has not exactly been a star during her stay in Ottawa but it has not been long enough for people to pass their judgment yet, so I predict a hold, but it will not be by a comfortable margin.
08 08 19 Left Coast
To the unidentified Tory supporter: The Quadra byelection was close but it was no Outremont. There has been no significant swing towards the Conservatives in B.C., unlike the Outremont byelection which occurred in the context of rising NDP support.
Turnout was around 35% in the byelection. The Tories got their vote out and targeted their supporters. The Libs took it for granted. The Green vote is always stronger in byelections. When there is 60-70% turnout, there is not much more room for Tory growth. Emerson may a big name, but he also has a lot of baggage.
08 08 12
Left Coast,
I wouldn't call Deborah Meredith, a UBC lecturer, a low-profile candidate. Nor would I say she ran a low-profile campaign. Her signs dominated the riding, she was out door knocking and canvassing often. Joyce Murray obviously did not underestimate her opponent -- she knocked on thousands of doors, and even moved back to the riding after living in New Westminster to run for MP. You'd think her result would be much stronger. You'd think that her campaign would motivate the core Liberal support to the polls.
Well, as it turns out, Murray pulled a win just by the skin of her teeth, in Liberal stronghold Quadra. The reason? No, not because Deborah Meredith was a ‘low-profile’ candidate as you put it. The reason Murray almost lost Quadra was because Dion's brand of Liberals just aren't selling well. And his proposed Carbon Tax is just going to irritate the situation in the next election.
If the Conservatives could do well in an urban riding with left-voting university students, they could very well take BC ridings like Richmond.
08 08 06 Left Coast
I think most observers were generally very surprised by the result. I actually think the fact that the Conservatives had a low-profile candidate/campaign in Quadra actually helped them come close. The Liberals, seeing very little of a Tory campaign, thought they had the riding in the bag and normally Liberal voters thought it was safe to sit it out or cast a protest vote against Dion's leadership. Had the Conservatives come on stronger, it would have been easier for the Liberals to unite the anti-Harper majority in the riding. Certainly in the next general election, they'll be better prepared.
08 03 28 Stevo
I grant you that if Deb Meredith runs again, it will be another close race. But the Conservatives will still fall short. My reasoning is this: in Vancouver-Quadra, you have Liberal voters, Conservative voters, and swing voters. In this by-election, general satisfaction among Conservative voters for the way their party's government has conducted itself in Ottawa, combined with general DISatisfaction with Dion's performance as leader, led to depressed Liberal participation and boosted Conservative participation. The swing voters, meanwhile, didn't show up at all. These are people who generally don't give a passing interest to politics beyond general election campaigns, and certainly couldn't be bothered to vote in a by-election. Once we are in the midst of a general election campaign, those apathetic Liberal voters are likely to come out in larger numbers - they have more room to grow, when compared with Conservative numbers which were already strong in the by-election. And this being Vancouver, the swing voters will tend to lean Liberal rather than Conservative. (what about the NDP, you ask? unusual for BC ridings, the NDP isn't a major factor here). I just don't see the Conservatives getting over the hump here.
I liken Vancouver-Quadra to Oakville. The Conservatives will get close - very close - but the general, and usually irrational, 'Big Three' (Van, TO, MTL) aversion to anything Conservative will keep them from winning. In fact, they have even less chance here than they do in Oakville, since Vancouver-Quadra is an inner-ring urban riding whereas Oakville is not.
08 03 27 R.O.
Well my thoughts on this riding a few factors will determine the future outcome those being Joyce Murrays performance as an mp. during her time in Ottawa does she accomplish things or get better known in the riding. but her future will also be decided by several other factors. The next big question here will be who gets the conservative nomination as the race was so close, my guess is if Deborah Meredith tries to get the nomination she could again be the nominee but that is not guaranteed. A third factor is the ndp/greens and what they do for candidates, you would assume after this weak finish the ndp will run a new candidate next election. The greens its hard to tell if there strong finish was a fluke or a sign of growth for the party.
08 03 26 T.V.
This was a very riding- and by-election-specific result. A lot of environmentalist Liberals in the riding didn't like Joyce Murray's past so they chose to protest vote for the Greens, which explains their astronomical result. By-elections aren't a time to vote against the government. They're a time for protest, and that's exactly what we've seen. It just goes to show that Dion made a huge mistake by listening to the advice of some Liberals about downplaying his environmentalism after the leadership. In a general election, most of this won't be a factor and people will go back to the Liberals in order to keep Harper from winning another government.
08 03 20
You claim that the usual Liberal supporters were too apathetic to vote - well, I think that's concerning for Dion because by-elections are a time when voters are traditionally trended towards voting AGAINST the current government. In fact, the opposite happened; support for the Conservative government increased solidly in this riding, support for the opposition Liberals nearly collapsed. The fact that Liberal supporters were too apathetic to vote is a reflection that the Liberal party is not engaging their traditional supporters to go and vote - something that could very well play out in a general election. The CPC went up +6% from last election, the Greens up +8%, and the Liberals down -12%. It demonstrates that people are satisfied enough with the Harper government, but they are not connecting with Dion's party. I guess even usual Liberal voters are not angry enough with the Harper government to go out and vote - and that is a big, big problem for the Liberals.
I do think that in a general election, the Green protest vote will be deflated. Part of that vote will go to the NDP, another to the Liberals, and another to the Conservatives. In the event of a stronger Conservative minority or a Conservative majority, some of the Liberal vote will drift to the Conservatives like recent trends. Thus, a Conservative win is possible in Vancouver Quadra, especially if Deborah Meredith (strong candidate who gave the Reform/CA/PC/CPC the best results in the riding since 1984) runs again.
08 03 19 Stevo
A close one. However, I think Conservatives are getting a little too excited here. Voter participation in the 4 by-elections on March 17 was a pitiful 20%, on average. I suspect that in Vancouver-Quadra, Conservative supporters - recognizing the possibility of an upset here - came out in droves and represented a much higher proportion of voters while apathetic Liberals stayed home. This will not happen in a general election scenario. My prediction is that the Liberals will rebound in the next election here, but certainly not to Stephen Owen levels of support.
08 03 18
Conservative Deborah Meredith defied the predictions of the pundits who claimed that this riding is an easy landslide for the Liberals. Murray is not popular, and it shows when she won by such a razor-thin margin. Dion's leadership of the Liberal party make the whole situation even worse.
I predict that this riding will go Conservative. Please don't go around claiming this riding is where the Conservatives have no chance - you are only deluding yourselves.
08 03 18 King of Kensington
Wow...the Liberals were short just 151 votes of another Outremont. They should have had this riding in the bag and the fact that the Tories almost took it really demonstrates Dion's weakness as a leader.
Keep in mind that the winner of this riding took less than 40% of the vote, I don't think anyone saw that coming. I also would have thought the surge in the Green vote would have come from the NDP, not the Liberals. It appears Dion's supposedly brilliant move to cut a deal with Elizabeth May has a downside!
I actually do think the Liberals will hang on in Quadra in a general election. The CPC has probably maxed out at 35% (and much of the northern half of the riding is pretty Tory-phobic territory), and the Libs will probably be better prepared for the Green threat. But this does spell trouble for the Liberals in BC, as ridings like Richmond and North Van could go back to the Tories.
08 03 18
Left Coast suggested people were smoking BC weed to think this riding could go to the conservatives...... That is funny seeing the Liberals only kept this seat by 151 votes!

By-election Prediction

08 03 17
Look at these interesting numbers:
MURRAY (Lib): 36.1%
MEREDITH (Con): 35.5%
COAD (NDP): 14.4%
GRICE (Green): 13.5%
For all those that predicted Murray would surge to victory in this traditional Liberal safe seat, Murray's flimsy 0.5% margin of victory is concerning in what once was known as the safest Liberal riding west of Ontario. Meredith actually led briefly, winning many polls (more so than the CPC candidate in 2006). The Green party candidate also did exceptionally well, increasing the Green vote percentage by 9%.
A difference of 151 votes, or 0.53% of the votes - an unexpected high showing for Meredith. I think these results speak for themselves - my predictions were correct that this riding is absolutely competitive. A traditional Liberal stronghold came crashing down to the skin of its teeth. The CPC is clearly making gains on the urban vote.
Who knows what will happen in a general election...!
08 03 17 Tyler
I'm going to go out on a limb and call this riding for the Greens. The Liberal lead was marginal even before the Georgia Straight endorsed Dan Grice and Elizabeth May spent several days campaigning in Vancouver Quadra, and should be virtually nonexistent now. Expect to see strategic voting from NDP voters.
08 03 16 S.O.
Those poll results are fascinating, but from what I'm seeing in the northern part of the riding the NDP have a lot of strong support. The Conservatives are almost absent in the 10th Ave/W. Broadway area.
I'm also thinking that the student vote is going to be deflated. UBC students who live in residences have to jump through hoops to prove that they can vote and to find polling stations. There'll be a lot who show up and will be turned away because they won't have the proper documentation and who'll just not bother to go through the trouble. There'll be others who'll have trouble finding a polling station conveniently in my opinion. I even called the local Elections Canada office and it took forever to figure it out.
08 03 15 Matt
Here is another poll that was done by the Greens. They did this for three of the four by-elections.
The phone survey was conducted by the Green Party of Canada over the weekend
of March 8 to 10, 2008. This is before Green Party leader Elizabeth May visited the riding for three days (March 10-12) and before the endorsement of Grice as the candidate of choice by the Georgia Straight on March 13. The voice message asked ?which political party are you planning to vote for on March 17th?. Of 30,179 Vancouver Quadra numbers called, 648 voters responded. Their voting preferences were:
24.5% Liberal Party
18.8% Green Party
17.1% Conservative Party
13.3% New Democratic Party
26.2% undecided
08 03 13
This must be the most interesting race in Vancouver Quadra since a long time.
-My household has already received two high quality, colour-printed pamphlets detailing the resume of Rebecca Coad and the NDP team
-Her signs rival those of the Liberal candidate. If you had never seen the results of last election, you would think this riding was exceptionally competitive for the NDP. Go on tenth street and Dunbar area, you'll see what I mean!
-Overall running an impressive campaign, more so than David Askew in 2006
-I've literally received five to six flyers detailing Harper's vision and plan for Canada, compared to that of Dion's
-Meredith signs are very strong in the Southern areas, weaker in the Northern areas. The CPC signs now have stickers on them, detailing the date of the by-election and an aspect of the party platform (e.g. ‘Tackling Crime’)
-Running a visible campaign and the CPC clearly feels the momentum to win this riding
-I've received one cheaply printed black-and-white flyer, negatively attacking Harper of the Cadman affair and the environment. That's the only flyer I've received through the mail from the Liberals.
-Signage is strong, but there are an awfully lot of NDP and CPC signs for a traditional Liberal stronghold
-Murray is not a popular candidate like Owen, there is also a conflict of beliefs between the centre-right-wing BC Liberals (whom she was an MLA for) and more left federal Liberals
Should be a fun race to watch! I still predict Murray will win, but definitely not by Owen's numbers.
08 02 27 Nappyguy
Much like the chatter during the 2004 and 2006 elections, the conservative chances here are vastly overrated. With UBC in session on byelection day, watch for the Green Party vote to be slightly inflated (but still behind the NDP). A Liberal Victory by less than 5000 votes would be an upset IMHO.
08 02 25 T.V.
Stephen Owen's a good MP, but there's no way any candidate could swing 12,000 votes. This is just about as Liberal a riding as they come, and with the current reasonably competent candidate, they will win it comfortably.
08 02 24
Update: Murray signs are definitely at a much fuller force, but Meredith signs hold their own. Some areas are littered with Murray signs (Kitsilano/UBC area), while other areas (Southern areas of the riding)are abundant with Meredith signs. Even around my close neighbourhood, I've already seen 3 houses that used to have Liberal signs now sporting Conservative signs. Yet, the overall Liberal sign presence is greater than when Owen was campaigning in this riding in 2006.
08 02 23 rebel
Dear King of Kensington...Indeed this riding will be swept up in the last wash of the tide but I have noticed in 1997, 2000 and 2004 that provincial poll results taken in federal elections have tended to overstate the Liberal vote, rather than understate...
I perfectly agree that 12,000 is too much to overcome and rather like your characterization of the riding demographics...nevertheless the riding remains in BC and a BC trend to the Conservatives will have some effect in the riding...
Your guess of a Liberal majority would be most interesting as it seems that the by-election is more likely to take place than before...
08 02 20 King of Kensington
The Conservatives being on ‘a bit of a role in BC’ (if true, BC polling numbers always tend to be volatile) means nothing. Quadra is the safest Liberal seat in Western Canada. People keep mentioning the following reasons for the Conservatives being competitive: being a wealthy riding, Owen's personal popularity, and the combined Alliance-PC vote in 2000. Quadra's wealth is irrelevant: it is more akin to St. Paul's than to Oakville, it is too much of an urban, ‘silk stocking’ riding chock full of small-’l’ intelligentsia types to go Tory at this point. People overwhelmingly vote for the PARTY not the local candidate, there is no way most of their 12,000 vote margin last time would have disappeared with someone else. And the old PC vote is much more comfortable with the Liberals than with the Conservatives with Harper at the helm.
08 02 17 rebel
The very latest Ipsos-Reid, released February 16, suggests the Conservatives have a wide lead in BC as a whole (Conservative 46%, 26% Liberal and 19% NDP)...the 2006 results were much narrower 37% Conservative, 27 Liberal and 29% NDP.
Now the BC sub-set will have quite a good margin of error (the number of electors actually polled was just over 100) but it suggests that the Conservatives are on a bit of a roll in BC and a good increase in seats should be anticipated at this point in time.
Vancouver Quadra would be very much the high water mark for any Conservative surge and the 12,000 or so margin for the Liberals last time is quite formidable. If I would predict now I would predict a much smaller turnout as should be expected and a party vote of about 19,000 Liberal, 16,000 Conservative, 6,000 Green and 5,000 NDP.
08 02 16 PY
Maybe it'll be Lawrence's anecdotal evidence that'll win the day, but then again history might. This was the riding of one John Turner, and despite his performance as Liberal leader, people in the riding were more than willing to elect him twice as their MP. If they were willing to stomach him then, surely they'll stick with Dion and Joyce Murray. Also consider that it made the news that the Chinese New Year's card drop seems to be a repeat of the ‘Indian Day’ gaffe in 2004. Apparently, there are non-Chinese residents whose last names happen to be Lee who aren't all amused about getting those cards in the mail (including those in Toronto Centre). Some outreach there, Mr. Kenney!
08 02 13 binriso
First of all, in 2000 the vote was 44.8% for Owen and 37.5% for the Alliance and a difference of 3640 votes. That isnt excessively close and there were other ridings that were closer in Vancouver that year (Vancouver East and Vancouver South). While the Conservatives do stand to gain here and maybe narrow the gap by several thousand votes and several %, they still wont win because the gap is too wide and the candidate strengths are pretty much the same. The Conservatives might have national momentum, but It just doesnt look like it will be enough. Winning Quadra means the CPC will win 25-30 seats in BC next time and that sure aint happening.
08 02 13 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Being ones who often and openly preach that people should check the polls, it may seem hypocritical of us to dispute the Environics poll cited by Johnny-No-Name. It seemed a little counter-intuitive to us for such a large showing to exist for the CPC in we checked that poll. It turns out that the poll was conduced between Dec 12, 2007 and Jan 3, 2008 when the house was not in session. During this time the CPC was doing better overall than how they are doing since the house resumed, so we suggest some caution in accepting this data as it is no longer current. We don't have current poll data specifically for Vancouver, but we'd be inclined to think that it's not as good as what's in the Environics poll as we have seen that when the CPC goes on the defensive their numbers tend to sink (we may be proven wrong on this). Having said this, we are not going to make a definitive prediction, but we would still be inclined to think the Liberals have the advantage. This riding is just too much like Westmount or St Paul in our opinion.
08 02 09
Recent polling by Environics show the Conservatives at 38% in the Greater Vancouver Area with the Liberals and NDP trailing at 24% and 22% respectively. While a core of the Conservative support come from the suburbs, I truly believe that these numbers will play into effect during the by-election in Vancouver Quadra, whether the CPC wins the seat (though unlikely) or gives the Liberals are run for their money.
08 02 08 Laurence Putnam
Whatever the actual outcome, prepare yourself for a shocker:
Up until this point, I have thought that while this will be as competitive as its been since 2000 (42%-38%), it would ultimately go Liberal. I would now say its certainly too close to call.
I was out at UBC the other day, and on my drive, I easily saw 4 Meredith signs for every Murray sign. One fellow I know in the riding who always supported Owen is voting Conservative, and a Liberal friend of mine has told me that the Liberals, while by no means demoralized or anything, aren't as energized as they've been in the past either. All anecdotal evidence, I know, but lets just say I can feel a change in the air.
Incidentally, in reply to one of the below posters - this isn't as Chinese or Indo-heavy a riding as you might think - to the best of my recollection of the census data on the riding, its only about 20% Asian, and very little Indo-Canadian presence. Further, I've always understood it that Chinese-Canadians only turn out in about 30% of their numbers anyway, so I don't think the Liberal party would be banking this one on the ‘new Canadian’ vote. And contrary to popular mythology, the UBC vote will not necessarily be lopsidedly Liberal - statistically two thirds of them won't vote at all, and the remainder will break down fairly proportionally to the broader vote - with the benefits of whatever lopsidedness occurs accruing more to the the Greens and NDP than the Liberals.
I think the denizens of this riding's $1.5-million+ homes may just have a surprise in store for a Liberal party which you can tell just from reading the predictions here, has taken this seat for granted for an awfully long time.
08 02 04
The Prime Minister appears to have mail a Chinese New Year Greetings’ card to every households with a Chinese last name in this riding and in Toronto Centre. Brilliant move indeed if it is true.
08 02 04
Actually, M. Lunn, the current Conservatives are running on a predominantly centrist platform leaning right, so I don't know what information you have been reading with regards to them being too extreme. Also, the large Indo-Canadian and Chinese-Canadian population in this riding is actually an asset to the CPC as they generally favour more centre-right parties. This riding could be fertile ground for the CPC if it wasn't for Dosanjh's personal popularity. I'm still interested to see how well CPC candidate Wai Young does in this riding. I'm surprised that the Conservatives are doing an impressive job in recruiting ethnic women to run under their banner - Alice Wong in Richmond, Yonah Kim Martin in New Minster, and now Wai Young in Vancouver South.
08 02 03
As of now, I am predicting this ridings as:
I predict it is leaning Liberal, because yes, this IS a traditional Liberal riding comprised of more upper-class voters who tend to support the Liberals. Joyce Murray is a very cookie-cutter Liberal candidate for this riding - she's the type of candidate that Vancouver Quadra typically supports.
However, I'm calling this a competitive riding because the Conservative Deborah Meredith actually has strong roots in this riding, especially in the UBC area where the CPC needs to gain votes if they are to win the riding. For every Liberal sign I see in this riding, I see at least 2-3 Conservative signs on private property. Even houses that had no signs in the 2006 election are now sporting Conservative signs. True, signs are not an accurate indicator of candidate strength, but they definitely show which party has the momentum. In this case, Meredith has the momentum.
Remember, in 2000, the Canadian Alliance candidate was an arm away from defeating the Liberal candidate. Without the incumbency factor, the Liberals may find this riding more competitive than before. Also, this is a by-election where voter turnout is low, so anything could happen.
08 01 26 A.S.
For the *ruling* federal Conservatives to have such vain hope in a Western urban open seat which their PC predecessors held until 1984 and in which the Alliance was strongly competitive in 2000 is sobering, indeed--and maybe a bit scary, in a ‘Harper doesn't need Quadra to rule the country’ sense. Has it actually come down to *that*?!? Because of that, I'm tempted to withhold a prediction and pray, for reasons of national unity and balance, that the byelection-fueled CPC *does* become competitive again in Quadra, regardless of whether I'd support them or not...
08 01 26
this was an owen riding, at least to the tune of a few 1000 votes.
granted the liberals will probably win it will be wayyyy closer than people think.
The conservative candidate crushed mcneil with a strong organisation that she has built in this riding for the past 25 years. she is from the riding and knows it a whole lot better than murrey.
this could affect the outcome, maybe even enough to swing it CPC but that is still unlikely
70%chance for the liberals to 30% for the conservatives IMO
08 01 26 David
No way a Conservative will win. The vote may go up but no win. This riding is becoming very urban and liberal minded and diverse. The Greens will pick up votes but Joyce Murray will win this seat.
08 01 19 Stevo
Vacouverites have become Torontonian in their federal voting habits - by that I mean, Liberal auto-pilot. There's no way this seat will flip in the coming by-election. The Conservatives should focus their resources on on shoring up their weakening support in the inner suburbs of Vancouver for the next general election, as both 2004 and 2006 saw ever-decreasing returns for Conservatives as compared with Reform 1993-2000.
07 12 20 Left Coast
Anybody who thinks the Conservatives will win here must be smoking a lot of BC weed. I can't believe this riding is TCTC.
The Liberals won this riding last time by a 12,000 vote margin - their best showing in Western Canada. Their numbers in BC have not moved significantly so I can't see them losing this.
Reform/Alliance never took this riding even when they were sweeping BC and the CPC numbers are lower. And has been pointed out former Red Tories in ridings like Quadra do not support Harper.
The Conservatives have minimal support in major cities. They are about as likely to take Quadra as they are St. Paul's (not likely).
07 12 11 binriso
Also, the last time a right-wing party won a seat prefaced by Vancouver was in 1988. Loooong time ago, the Liberals have decent support in BC now to sweep the Vancouver ridings(except Vancouver East).
07 11 25 binriso
I can’t see the Liberals losing here, they won by 12000 votes last time and the CPC aren’t strong in Vancouver, they barely managed 25% in any of the ridings prefaced by Vancouver. Candidate strength seems about equal this time, which the CPC would need a much higher profile candidate to win this riding back. The CPC are not going to win or even come within 5000 votes/10% depending on the turnout. The NDP aren’t going to be a factor and might even lose some votes to the Liberals.
07 11 05 BJ
I cannot believe that this riding has not yet been predicted for the Liberals. Old 'progressive' PC and Red Tory voters of the '70's and '80's have switched enmasse to the Liberals in the City of Vancouver over the past decade.
Vancouver Quadra is to the Liberals as Vancouver East is to the NDP.
Also take into account a large sample size (851) Mustel Group BC federal opinion poll from October 31 showing the Tories at 37% (no change from last election), the Liberals at 30% (up two points from last election) and the NDP at 21% (down 8 points since last election).
07 11 05 Dunbar Watcher
Now that the parties have all nominated their candidates, it seems clear to me that this riding is winnable by the Conservatives. Some of the comments made by other writers here about Liberal strength in the riding may well have a grain of truth during a general election, when ground resources for all parties are fully in play. During a by-election, on the other hand, the ground war resources (canvassers, sign handlers, etc.) can be strengthened by drawing from surrounding ridings. Couple that with much more air war support for the Conservatives (media, advertising, etc.) and the riding should be able to return to the Conservative fold. Finally, add a quality candidate in Deborah Meredith ...
07 10 30 M. Lunn
I agree with King of Kensington that this is a very safe Liberal riding and even though it may be affluent so are ridings like Don Valley West, St. Paul's, Westmount-Ville Marie and none of these do the Tories stand a chance. Likewise Manhattan is a pretty wealthy area yet votes solidly Democrat. It may have gone PC in the past when the party was more centrist, but over the past ten years, ridings in the city proper have become Conservative dead zones. Any gains will be in the suburbs, not the city proper. Never mind this also includes UBC and Kitsilano which tend to be centre-left so even if the Tories won Shaughnessy, Kerrisdale, and Marine Drive area, this would be offset by Kitsilano and UBC. The Northside of this riding did go Vision Vancouver in the last municipal election and the NDP is reasonably strong there never mind the BC Liberals are in some ways like the old PCs more than the current Conservatives, although they do have some more right wing elements too, but not to the extent the Conservatives do.
07 10 29 King of Kensington
I realize this is an open seat now, but why is Quadra deemed TCTC? This is among the two or three safest Liberal seats in Canada. The Liberals took this by 11,000 votes last time - that is a landslide. There is no way most of that can be primarily explained by Stephen Owen's personal popularity.
Hedy Fry is more likely to lose her seat to the NDP than Quadra is to fall to the Conservatives. Even Tory strategists aren't targeting small-’l’ liberal ‘silk stocking’ like Quadra or St. Paul or Westmount but rather more suburban and exurban seats.
And again, the fact that the combined Alliance/PC vote may have come close to or even outpolled the Liberals in the past is irrelevant. Reform/Alliance had more of a broad protest appeal that went beyond a more ideological small-’c’ conservatism and the ex-PC's, like in Rosedale and St. Paul, here find the new Conservative Party totally unappealing
07 10 18 not displayed
Just as an aside, Deborah Meredith is not a ‘law professor’ at UBC -- she is a business professor who is also a lawyer. She teaches business law at the Sauder School of Business. ‘Law professor’ would suggest she teaches in the faculty of law, which is not the case. Not that any of this has any bearing on her election chances.
07 10 15 King of Kensington
Along with Ujjal's seat, this is the other super-safe Liberal seat in BC. Yes Dion is a weak leader, but this riding is just too small-’l’ liberal to go the Conservatives and too wealthy to go NDP. The CPC has never polled in BC as Reform/Alliance and most of the old PC vote seems have gone to the Liberals. Joyce Murray will win Quadra by a very wide margin.
07 10 14
Actually, if thought over properly, the nomination of Deborah Meredith over Mary McNeil can hardly be shoved aside- Meredith has also has high credentials on her own right. She has lived in this riding most of her life, raised her family here, and is a law professor at UBC, an area where the CPC needs to gain votes if they are to win this riding. One thing IS for sure- this race will not be as easy for the Liberals as prospectors predict. This is an upscale, very wealthy riding, and thus is more inclined to vote Liberal in that aspect, but there are factors that may pull an upset.
-Green Dan Grice is running a top-notch campaign. This will hurt the NDP and the Liberals more than the CPC. Especially in a by-election, expect the Green vote to soar at expense of the LPC and NDP.
-Dion's approval ratings are low, as shown in the Quebec by-elections and polls.
-Lack of Liberal incumbency factor
-Joyce Murray lacks the name recognition that the Owen family has in this riding.
-Remember, in 2000 the Canadian Alliance almost pulled an upset in this riding.
07 10 11
With CPC Deborah Meredith nominated over Mary McNeil, I believe that Joyce Murray will take this one. However, don't be surprise if this race resulted in a 2000-type situation in which the Canadian Alliance candidate was at the doorstep of grasping this seat away from Liberal Stephen Owen. Without Owen's incumbency factor, it may be a closer race than we may have imagined.
07 09 30 tranio
Stehen Owen won because he was a decent man, he would have won as a conservative. I know several people who are conservatives but voted for Owen the man. That is no longer the case.
07 09 30 Mike R
Update: Deborah Meredith has been nominated as the Conservative Candidate in Vancouver Quadra. Proving that organization usually trumps celebrity endorsement. Both candidates for nomination were credible, and it should be an interesting race between two capable women.
Joyce Murray has never been a natural politician or a comfortable campaigner. Her recent move to the Riding may soften the hard-core Liberal suppport. But I would venture that most voters in that riding are from somewhere else, and those issues don't resonate largely in most elections.
If this is a byelection rather than subsumed into a fall general election, it will be seen as a bit of a referendum on both Mr. Dion's status as leader, and the Tories' ability to penetrate urban ridings. It still has to be seen as a Liberal win, if only by reason of the head start they have from past elections.
07 09 30 Pat Gibbons
The Tories nominated Meredith, not McNeill. Game over: easy Liberal win.
07 09 28 Mike R
The Conservative Party nomination is being held on September 29. It appears to still be a close race between McNeil and Meredith. The local press has not been kind to Joyce Murray, but it would still be a major upset to have the Liberals lose this one. They are helped by the weakness of the NDP vote generally (they have given up and nominated a University student) which eliminates any vote-splitting on the ?left? (assuming you can call the Liberals that). The Greens poll well in BC but have never shown any organizational ability. In a straight two-woman race the Liberals still have to be confident in this one - even with their internal problems.
07 09 20
Mary McNeil in fact is not well networked in the riding. She entered the race very late, many months after the other nomination contenders. She entered after Stephen Owen decided to step down. Though she has roots in the riding, She has not lived in Vancouver Quadra all her life, she currently resides in Vancouver Centre. She may be trumpeted as a ‘star’ candidate, but as anyone who has ever worked on a nomination campaign knows, ‘star’ power is meaningless unless you use it to sell memberships. McNeil has not done this. Deborah Meredith has been in this nomination contest for 10 months, working hard and selling memberships. Meredith will win this nomination, not McNeil.
07 09 15
This riding is shaking up to be a very interesting race. I feel that with Stephen Owen's incumbency factor gone, this riding is out in the air. The reason why Owen was continually elected with such large margins was because he was a fairly decent MP, and people of all political stripes can agree with that. He didn't do anything controversial, or blatantly opportunistic. He was, essentially, a nice guy in politics, and that's what made him rather appealing. As well his family (Owen) is well-established in the riding.
But, he's not here to ‘protect’ the riding anymore. I believe that many Conservative and NDP voters may have voted for him due to his decent reputation. This is why I believe the riding is up for the toss. Mary McNeil is definitely banging her war drums in this riding with her high credentials (CEO of Cancer Foundation) and strong organization in this riding. If she takes the CPC nomination, Joyce Murray may never know what hit her...
07 08 21 Sir Mackenzie Bowell
The Grits should be the easy favourites in my home riding having elected Turner in '84 and a liberal ever since. However, satisfaction with the Harper government and lack of incumbency along with the usual low turnout for by-elections give the Tories at least a chance of winning. A lot will depend on the candidates and the date of the by-election. If Harper calls the vote when university is out and many students have gone home for Christmas he may improve his odds. Voter turnout and getting the vote out will be very important in determining the outcome of this race. I think the Greens will do well in the by-election as many usually liberal voters will park their vote with the Greens to showcase the importance of the environment but, without a 5% swing from Liberals to the Tories it will be next to impossible to get a Conservative elected.
If I were a betting man I would still pick the Grits.
07 08 14
My weigh on this riding is: Currently leaning Liberal, but if the Conservatives nominate Mary McNeil, it may be an interesting race.
These are two professional women who have roots in the riding.
Joyce Murray: Helped plant millions of trees with her business, was a former Cabinet minister in the BC Liberal government (but was defeated in 2005). As environment is a hot topic, this will benefit her campaign. This riding has recently had a record of voting Liberal, and is definitely a more ‘red’ riding. So currently, it will lean Liberal.
Mary McNeil: The CEO of the BC Cancer Foundation. I think everyone can relate to cancer, and the fact that she spent years leading an organization that will help find a cure will greatly help her campaign. She also has an endorsement from the Police Chief.
Why McNeil has a chance:
1) Stephen Owen was a well-liked MP, but he's retiring, so there is no incumbency factor.
2) Quadra has had a record of voting PC in the past. The CPC has shed much of its ‘scary’ image since election 1 and a half years ago, and has shown that is actually a more centrist party than anything.
3) In 2000, Canadian Alliance candidate almost pulled an upset, losing by around 3000 votes.
4) McNeil has a remarkable portfolio.
Too close to call.
07 08 06 Pat Gibbons
Mary McNeil is extremely well networked in the riding, having lived on the West side her entire life. Her kids went to school there, her husband taught high school there. She has been a relatively quiet mover and shaker in Vancouver for over a decade.
I think the Cons are...bad. But having worked with Mary I can't say anything negative about her really. Smart, industrious, savvy, enough heart and enough steeliness. She totally could win the riding, if she gets the nomination.
07 08 03 Laurence Putnam
I will still give the edge to the Liberals here - but I want to put this out there:
I do not believe this is the Liberal stronghold some here believe it to be.
This riding was solidly Tory up until 1984 - when the Liberal Prime Minister of Canada won it by just three thousand votes.
As a high-profile party leader he increased that base in 1988. And in 1993, with the winds of change, it was a Liberal hold, although PC+Reform numbers would have held the seat. (Yes, I realize the votes of neither party can be taken for granted as entitled to by the Conservative Party - but I wish only to illustrate that VQ is not the bastion of Liberalism it seems to be regarded as.)
1997 result was near-identical to the 1993 result.
It got a little tighter in 2000 when Stephen Owen (of Vancouver's Owen family - at this time Philip Owen was Mayor of Vancouver) won the best result since 1988 with 45% - but the Alliance were no slouches at 38%, and again, with the PC votes, the Liberals would have been defeated.
Owen posted extremely strong results in both 2004 (over 50%) and 2006 - this much is true.
But while its easy for people from all over the country to log on and look at the results of the last couple of elections and say ‘wow, this is real Liberal stronghold’ is not, in my opinion (as a Vancouverite) accurate - these facts need to be considered:
1. ‘Liberal Stronghold’ status started after the Liberal leader started running here in 1984 - defeating (and not handily) a 12-year PC incumbent.
2. A more typical, no-name Liberal candidate like Ted McWhinney in the 1990s never did better than about 42% in this riding. That'll win you the riding, but does not a stronghold make.
3. Stephen Owen is not just a cabinet minister - he's a member of one of the most influential families in Vancouver. He is personally respected by people of all walks of life in Vancouver - and this I believe, accounts for his incredibly strong results (Owen has done better in this riding than John Turner ever did)
4. This is the wealthiest pocket of Vancouver - and while the local denizens may not be of the gun-toting redneck variety - they're not best described as a bunch of bleeding-heart Liberals either.
I think the Liberals are still the likeliest winners - but I do wish to make the point that this should not be considered a stronghold - and if the Liberals do win, I'd expect to see Liberal numbers that look a lot more like the numbers in the 90's (low forties) than the kinds of numbers Owen was able to post.
It may be a long-shot for the Conservatives - but for the first time certainly since 2000, you'd better believe that this is going to be a race.
07 07 30 M. Lunn
For those suggesting the Tories might pull this off, lets get real. Yes this riding did go Tory in the past, but so did several ridings in Toronto and other large urban centres. It may have gone strongly for centre-right parties provincially and municipally, but so do ridings such as Don Valley West, Willowdale, and Etobicoke Centre. More importantly, most polls show the Tories have declined in support, but even if they do rebound, overcoming a 12,000 vote deficit won't happen. The Conservatives would need to be looking at a strong majority before this riding will come into play.
As for Joyce Murray, she lost twice since the Gordon Campbell Liberals were quite unpopular in New Westminster which is an NDP stronghold, but this riding includes the premier's own riding as well as Vancouver-Quilchena, which was the second best showing for the BC Liberals (67% of the popular vote) so if anything, Joyce Murray will be an asset rather than a liability.
07 07 28 Robert
Update: (though the news is now over 4 weeks old), the Conservatives have another nominee for Candidate - Mary McNeil. Former President and CEO of BC Cancer Foundation (very well respected for the job she did there for 9 years). With 50% of the 'public purse' going to Health Care - a very good point of experience to have on a resume. Mary also sits on the Vancouver Police Board, so understands urban policing issues (which the Feds - as the top tax collector need to do more on) so that will be another plus. When compared to Meridith (no offense but a UBC professor - who has little political skills) and Murray (at best a 'so so' Minister) if there is anyone can break through the Myopia of the Kit's and UBC Liberal Lemmings (?just how much money does a party need to steal before you see through the environment cloak Dion is hiding behind?) McNeil has to be it. But as other contributors have noted - this riding can defy all logic (what was it Churchill said: if you are not a socialist when you are 25 you have no heart, but if you are still a socialist when you are 35....). Bottom Line: still too close to call.
07 07 27 Mike R
Joyce Murray is a recent arrival in Vancouver Quadra. Her recent political experience was as MLA for New Westminster, where she resided until a few months ago. She also ran, and came third, in the riding of Coquitlam-New Westminster in 2006.
The attraction of Vancouver Quadra for her was, in a very small part, the fact she grew up in that neighbourhood. A much larger attraction was that it is one of the safest Liberal seats in the province. Only part of that was due to Stephen Owen's personal abilities. In reality, if the Liberals can't hold this seat they won't win any in BC.
But I doubt that there is much risk of them losing. Although it appears the Conservatives will have a credible candidate, it would take a major sea change in public opinion to make up an 11,000 vote gap. None of the polls have shown that to be happening.
Joyce Murray will make a very competent addition to the Liberal caucus, but I doubt that her strengths will show as an opposition member - particularly one whose time will be spent protecting her leader's back from the knives of his rivals.
07 07 25 David m.
There's almost no way that the Liberals lose this one.
This riding is not the same on that the Tories once competed for - recent arrivals and attrition (old people die, it's a fact) have made this riding far more Liberal friendly over the years, a trend noticed Vancouver-wide. The CPC hasn't even come close here in recent years, and this next election isn't likely to prove any different.
The one variable that could shift the race is the Conservative candidate. Liberals have an enormous numerical advantage in Quadra (meaning that low or high turnout, they win), but a real 'game-changer', Rick Hansen or Sammy 'the man' Sullivan for instance, imposed by Harper at the last moment, could potentially snag it for the CPC. The NDP has no chance, no matter who they run.
Barring a real recruitment coup and an unlikely move by Harper, Madam Murray is heading for Parliament Hill. God help us all.
07 07 13 free_thinker
If I'm not mistake, Joyce Murray was pretty soundly defeated for an incumbent in 2005 election. Her riding provincially, if I am not mistaken, is located in the more Liberal area of the federal Quadra riding. Not a good sign.
Second, this one of only two seats the Conservatives actually have shot in and so they will be pouring resources into both of these in quite a substantial manner.
When it comes down to candidate, Joyce Murray has a record and political baggage....Deborah Meredith has little to none. Furthermore, the Liberals are falling in the polls, lower than 2006 while the CPC is relatively the same. So, what counts here is the NDP.
So, what does that mean? If the NDP can peel enough votes from the Liberals, this seat goes Conservative. If the Liberals can hold their own locally, it stays Liberals. The Liberal's need to run a local campaign focus on local issues, and they need to talk about how bad Harper is...forget Dion, he wont help you in BC. The Conservatives need to focus on Harper, his leadership and contrast him to Stephane Dion. Also the should consistently mention that the people of Quadra want a government MP.
This is a tight race, closer than many think.
07 05 08 Layin' Down the Facts
Joyce Murray, a former BC Liberal cabinet minister, is the perfect candidate for this affluent riding for the Liberals. But that really doesn't matter in this riding. The margin last election was over 11,800 when the Liberals lost the election, and those kinds of margins don't just evaporate unless the federal campaign is a record-setting catastrophe. This was the one seat east of Manitoba that the Liberals managed to hold in the 1984 election (although it was the seat of the incumbent Prime Minister), and it has been Liberal ever since. The ‘near-upset’ in the 2000 election was more than a 3,500 vote margin, and the Alliance was still a 'protest vote' back then; many people who voted Reform or Alliance voted NDP before 1993 and vote NDP now. This is probably the easiest win for the Liberals west of Ralph Goodale's riding. Easy Liberal hold.
07 04 16 Steve L.
oooh wait! the bilingual investment banker (Rick Peterson) has dropped out of the nomination. therefore we will now most likely have the Sauder Business School law professor from UBC, Deborah Meredith, running against Joyce Murray. as for the NDP, i don't know about them.
not too bad of a matchup. were it a swing riding we may be looking at an interesting campaign. but i'm not entirely convinced that this is a swing riding yet, so... if i'm a betting man i'd still say Joyce Murray. although this Deborah Meredith lady might be able to tighten Murray's victory margin.
07 04 16 Steve L.
to answer Buck: Joyce Murray, former BC Liberal MLA, will run in Quadra. the same Joyce Murray who ran for the third-place Liberals in New Westminster-Coquitlam in 2006. to trump up the recent Liberal greenifying spree, Murray has posted up her master thesis on her campaign website - because she did hers on global warming! ha ha! what coincidence!
the Conservative nomination here isn't finished yet. it'll be either a law professor from the Sauder School of Business in UBC (kind of an uncommon catch for the Conservatives, a professor from UBC...) or a bilingual investment banker. not bad, but i'm not THAT impressed myself.
Joyce Murray might not be the best candidate here, but she's been around the block in politics and this riding was last known to be a heavily Liberal-leaning one, so right now i don't think it'll go anything but.
07 04 13 Buck
One rumour I've heard about Quadra is that Emerson will run here rather than in Kingsway.....
I think he'd have a greater chance winning here than in his current riding - site of the now infamous turn-coat - but whether Emerson could take Quadra would depend on the Liberal opponent.
Has anyone heard who will be running in Owen's place? Martha Piper?
07 04 10 Joe
When the Liberals fell to 40 seats in 1984, Quadra was one of them. It's been Liberal ever since, and even with Owen leaving - I still think it's a safe seat
07 04 03 Brian Appel
Vancouver Quadra is a weird duck of a riding. It's a mix of granola folk in Kits, the wealthy in Point Grey, and students in the UBC ghetto. It's due to Kits and UBC that this riding will never go Harper. They may do well, even come close, but it'll never be enough to put them over the top. But Point Grey will make sure to keep the socialists out but good. This is one of the best examples of a large ?L? Liberal riding in Canada. I mean, if John Turner could win it in the Liberal implosion of '84, than any Liberal can.
07 04 03 Dunbar Watcher
Actually, I think with both Owen retiring and the Conservative party rules that preclude Rogers from standing again the Conservatives do have an opportunity to win this seat. I could easily see a James Moore (Port Moody-Westwood) winning handily in Quadra; any candidate that shows his urban sensibilities should win enough votes in the north of the riding (and the south was Conservative to start with). Starbucks conversations in the area have shifted: lots more favourable comments about the Government than heard even six months ago. While under Owen the Liberals could mail Quadra in, not anymore.
07 04 01
I think Owen leaving opens this riding up. Remember, in 2001 the Canadian Alliance almost pulled an upset over Owen (replacing the retiring Liberal incumbent). It will depend on who the CPC and the LPC choose to run.
07 03 25 King of Kensington
Quadra is the western counterpart of St. Paul's riding in Toronto. It is a very affluent riding with too many small-l liberal intelligentsia types for the Harper Conservatives to be competitive. It doesn't really matter who the Liberals choose to run here with Stephen Owen retiring.
07 03 21 M. Lunn
Even though Stephen Owen isn't running, this is my former riding in 2004 and Vancouver Centre in 2006 (I now live in Toronto since last October), this is a very safe Liberal riding. It is too wealthy to elect an NDP MP, but with UBC, and progressive neighbourhoods like Kitsilano, there is no way the Tories can win here. Even the south side of the riding which goes massively for centre-right parties provincially and municipally will not go Conservative and there is little reason to believe this will change. Dion's green platform and combination of economic prosperity and social justice should reasonate well here.

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