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Vancouver South

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
9:34 AM 6/23/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
5:29 PM 18/03/2004

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Charles Boylan
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Ujjal Dosanjh
Canadian Action canadienne:
Joe Horrocks
Bev Meslo
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Doug Perry
H. Sandhu
Victor Soo Chan
Stephen Von Sychowski
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Frank Wagner

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Vancouver Kingsway (10.0%)
Sophia Leung
Vancouver Quadra (23.6%)
Hon. Stephen Owen
Vancouver South-Burnaby (66.4%)
Hon. Herb Dhaliwal

2000 Result/Résultats:
16,837 46.80%
12,443 34.59%
2,845 7.91%
2,186 6.08%
1,667 4.63%

Vancouver Kingsway
(20/190 polls, 6473/67302 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Vancouver Quadra
(48/232 polls, 15239/78359 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Vancouver South-Burnaby
(114/203 polls, 42969/71410 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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21/06/04 David C.
Email: [hidden]
Ujjall Dosanjh is quite popular personally. People like him yes a lot of people are disappointed by his decision to switch parties but most seem to want to vote for him because of him as a person. He's seen as a nice guy who is moderate and competent regardless of what his detractors say. This is just the perception that he gives and that is rather comforting to some not to mention the fact that he's a much better communicator than the Conservative candidate Victor Soo Chan. The NDP candidate Bev Meslo is running a surprisingly strong campaign and while one can only read so much into a poll of 300 people she's at least around 15-20% and at the most 30-35%. This is probably attributable to Meslo as a person whom I might add is a very strong personality and a good communicator who will finish a respectable second. Normally I would say this would spell trouble for the Dosanjh but like I said people are voting for him not the party -- even though this is a pretty L! iberal riding. The Conservative candidate isn't all that strong and he can't rely upon his name getting him votes -- it just won't happen. Finally in regards to the sign war Dosanjh seems to be winning it by around a seven to four margin over Meslo, with only a few signs for Soo-Chan. And since in Vancouver these signs can't be on public property it's an indication that Dosanjh has at least a reasonably strong base to start from. All of this will combine to ensure a Dosanjh victory and keep this riding in the Liberal column -- probably the safest Liberal riding in BC.
15/06/04 On the Fence
Email: [hidden]
Chinese community will not vote for someone just because he has a Chinese last name. He has to work to earn the votes. Most immigrants will vote either NDP or Liberal while the affuent Chinese will likely vote Conservatives. However many Liberal votes will go to Dr. Chan this time mainly because they do not like someone who betrays his party that supported him for so many years.
Judging from the poll the Liberal will win this riding. What is interesting is when we have a minority government the Liberal Party likely will have a leadership review. If so Vancouver south voters would like to see Herb Dhaliwal back.
12/06/04 The Great Wall of Whiner
Email: [hidden]
I do a great deal of on-line chatting (yeah, I know. Not much time on my hands), and I was in a Vancouver Yahoo Chatroom last night discussing this riding, and guess what?
Not one person was voting Liberal! So many people expressed the view that Ujjal betrayed his party and those who are left-leaning were parking their vote with the NDP and former Ujjal supporters will hold their noses and vote Conservative to spite him for his percieved turncoat opportunism.
Given this fact, and the fact that Dr. Chan will fair well with the Chinese community, leaves me to ponder whether this riding is too close to call or not.
If I HAD to call it, I'd call it for the Conservatives because the left will fracture, with many "soft" voters going Conservative because polls are showing the Conservatives leading the Liberals and they would rather have their MP in government rather than on the sidelines.
14/06/04 CM
Email: [hidden]
A Compas Poll of the riding shows Dosanjh well out in first with 41%, with Meslo and Soo Chan in a statistical tie for second with 28% and 27%, respectively.
11/06/04 TH
Email: [hidden]
Anyone see the poll numbers for this riding. Dosanjh was way ahead, with the NDP and CPC running distant seconds and thirds. I think Dosanhj has it in the bag provided he can get the vote out on the 28th. But the same cannot be said about the Libs in the election...
11/06/04 Aric Houlihan
Email: arichoulihan@rogers.com
Looks like Dosanjh made the right decision to join the Liberal team as the COMPASS poll today shows him with 41% to the Conservatives 27%, so it looks like he may now be an MP in Parliament on June 28.
11/06/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
This is one of 12 or 13 ridings polled by Ipsos Reid. 300 respondants and the former permier is leading with support in the 40s and Bev Meslo is in the high 20s.
10/06/04 Karen
Email: [hidden]
I attended the vancouver candidates debate tonight and Soo Chan was obviously the weakest candidate of them all. He was too nervous, has no speaking skills, and could not give any good reasons why he was running as a conservative or why he wanted to be in politics at all. I'd say Dosanjh will likely win.
09/06/04 Dave
Email: [hidden]
I think the only thing saving Ujjal here is his name recognition and the weakness of the candidates selected by the other parties (although the NDP probably did a superior job to the Tories in their selection). If the Conservatives had a stronger candidate, this would have been a much closer race.
07/06/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
Drove through the riding yesterday. Almost all the nig Dosanjh signs spray painted with dollar signs.
I am not certain he can win, the dislike of him is high among the left and the right. If I had to make a bet here, I think Bev Meslo might win because she is not Dosanjh.
05/06/04 pollster
Email: [hidden]
As far has Dr. Soo Chan, the only chance of him winning is every chinese person in the riding must vote for him. Historically, Chinese canadians in this riding has a low turnout. Dr. Chan does not have the communication skills to which Bev Meslo and Ujjal posses. I heard him on the radio and he has no debating skills at all. Chan nervously studders every time he speaks. Bev Meslo has great communication skills and can debate very well. I would have predicted the Conservatives, but Dr. Victor Soo Chan is too weak at his speaking and arguing abilities. NDP have a chance in Vancouver South.
04/06/04 Andrea Lewis
Unfortunately, this area isn't going NDP, but I don't think its going Liberal either. Ujjal appears to be winning the sign war, but that depends on where you live. There is a good scattering of NDP signs, but where I live, Killarney, Soo Chan is the clear favourite. Also he has a poster in the window of almost every window on Victoria Drive. People are pissed with Ujjal. Victor Soo Chan wins in a squeaker.
03/06/04 Victor A.
Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com
I watched the mini-debate on Newsworld's *Politics* and the only thing I have to say is that Victor Soo Chan's only advantage is the large and usually more pro-Liberal oriented Chines Canadian community. Victor was literally knocked down by the arguments of Ujjal Dosanjh and Bev Meslo, both of whom presented themselves as solid and ready to win candidates. Mr Chan was not able to respond to their arguments in any clear, convincing or concise manner. Although Bev was very strong, I do not expect her to win here, too bad she did not try in a potentially winnable riding, if the NDP would have put her in Kingsway she'd won it for the NDP hands down. Ujjal will carry it out at the end of the day, sure it won't be easy but Mr. Chan will have only a limited appeal to anyone outside of the Chinese Candian community and Dosanjh's experience is clearly giving him the edge.
02/06/04 YukonPundit
Email: yukonpundit@yahoo.ca
Question for people living in and around Van South: Is Bev Meslo seen as a viable candidate since she ran for the NDP leadership or is she just viewed as wingnut in this riding?
01/06/04 david mann
Email: david-mann@shaw.ca
I've noticed a lot of Ujjal signs (and they are not in any public area !!!)in Vancouver south since writ was dropping about a week ago. I'm sure Ujjal will win, probably with 60% of the vote because he will attract lots of social progressive vote from NDP. NDP is running a weak candidate in South is also help Ujjal. CPC is no factor in this riding so far.
25/05/04 Bruce Stewart
Email: bruce@stewart-group.com
Ujjal Dosanjh's effrontery apparently knows no bounds - after opening the door wide to the perception of opportunism by accepting a Prime Ministerial appointment to the candidacy of the riding, his further comments against voting NDP (a so-called "vote for Harper") and meddlesome endorsement of Richard Mahoney in Ottawa Centre (as if anyone in Ottawa Centre cares what a former NDP Premier of BC thinks, or as if anyone in any Vancouver riding is fooled into thinking Ujjal matters out of province!) strongly suggests backlash. I have heard no pro-Ujjal comments since his parachute ride into Vancouver South, and a growing number of "sit down and shut up" comments of growing intensity. So much for Martin's "knowledge" of the BC voter - or Ujjal's, for that matter. I don't know yet which way the riding will tip, not having had the time to poke about it, but my guess is that the Prime Minister, looking at the election night results, will wish he'd kept Dhaliwal around.!..
25/05/04 Peter Harris
Email: [hidden]
Ujjal is only in the lead on "lawn signs" because I notice that many of them are on public property! (Which is illegal in Vancouver) The conservative signs are starting to spring up all over the place too. If anyone heard the Bill Good show this morning, Dr. Chan and Dosanjh were on and almost every caller was someone angry at Ujjal. Good ripped him to pieces. If anything, Dosanjh should put less signs out there, cause people who might vote liberal, when they see that he is their candidate, will probably take a pass. Ujjal is a cooked goose.
24/05/04 Grit
Email: [hidden]
From the looks of the lawn signs, Ujjal as an overwhelming lead already. Don't think it's going to be an overwhelming victory at the polls, because of the Liberals scandals. Also, the riding is dominated by Asian Canadians, specifically Chinese Canadian. You might see the majority of the immigrant Asians vote for Victor Soo Chan because of the cultural differences when it comes to decriminalization of marijuana and same-sex marriage. However, a victory for the Liberals is likely.
18/05/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@hotmail.com
Y'know how I said earlier that Meslo is more or less a joke candidate? Well she ain't the only one anymore... Dosanjh's apparent endorsement of Mahoney will probably have the effect of destroying his credibility has a reasonably independent voice... and will make the Dippers in Van South unlikely to hold their collective noses and vote for him...
12/05/04 jb
Email: [hidden]
Dosanjh's bizarre press conference "endorsing" Richard Mahoney in Ottawa Centre (who he probably doesn't even know) has probably turned off every NDP voter who might have considered supported him. Not that there are many NDP voters in Vancouver South, but now they'll probably either vote NDP, or become so angry that they'll vote Conservative just to get back at Dosanjh.
11/05/04 Ned Kelly
Email: [hidden]
Ujjal is going down, and probably by a fairly substantial margin. Today, he chose to further antagonize the party he deserted by mouthing the old saw about an NDP vote being a vote for the Tories. I suspect with a candidate of their own that they are at best lukewarm on, NDPers in Vancouver South might just oblige Ujjal and go straight to "GO" and vote for the Conservative Victor Soo Chan just for the pleasure of seeing the man who led a BC government to the worst defeat ever end up flat on his face on election night.
08/05/04 Ugly American
Email: [hidden]
Sounds (as of May 04) as though the Liberals will lose this one, despite a star candidate. Doubt voters will punish himn (at least not much) for his vote switch or his five minutes of fame. More likely than Chinese Canadians will support one of their own. It may come down to how well the Doc's local practice stacks up against the tooth fairy. Fearless prediction: Conservatives
06/05/04 Liui Bang
People hate turncoats in this part of the world. Ujjal can engage in all the self-justification that he wants, but at the end of the day, even a lot of usual Liberal supporters are likely to look at him and see someone who couldn't muster the backbone to remain loyal to the party that was his meal ticket -- and gave him the chance to be premier - and vote to punish him. Vancouver South is strong conservative undercurrents anyway, so don't be surprised when Victor Soo Chan emerges as a "giant" killer on election night. The NDP is not a factor here, and I can easily see angry NDPers voting Tory just to see Ujjal go down in flames.
28/04/04 C.S.
Email: [hidden]
The Conservatives have nominated a great candidate, Victor Soo Chan. As previously mentioned, the ethnic makeup of this riding will play heavily in Soo Chan's favour. He is very well known in the community as he has been a dentist there for over 25 years.
Ujjal Dosanjh may have a high profile but with his dismal record, that's probably to the Liberal Party's disadvantage. Combine that with the turmoil that's been created by Martin appointing this turncoat along with Dosanj's lack of organization and lack of support from the Liberal riding executive and its clear the Liberals don't have a hope of winning here.
As for the NDP, with 7.91% from the last election, there is no way they can be considered a contender here.
This riding will be a pick-up for the Conservatives.
27/04/04 Jim Reach
I can't believe anyone believes that turn-coat Ujall stands a chance of winning in Van South. We hear the Indo-Canadian community is steaming mad with Ujall’s "conversion", and with a clear majority of Chinese-Canadian’s in the riding rallying behind Dr. Victor Soo Chan Ujjy’s going to have an uphill battle to say the least. After leading the most hated provincial government in recent history and being crowned Liberal candidate Ujall has more then his share of baggage, never mind that he has to run as a right-wing Martin-Liberal: so much for bleeding votes from the left! Vancouver South residents know Dr. Soo Chan will make a wonderful MP!
24/04/04 Jonathan
Email: [hidden]
This constituency is 47% Chinese-Canadian, and 12% Indo-Canadian. The Chinese-Canadians will vote overwhelmingly for a strong Chinese-Canadian candidate ... and the Indo-Canadians, who hate Ujjal, won't show except those who come out to vote against him. Ujjal doesn't campaign hard: in the end, that will not help get out those who might be attracted by his record.
21/04/04 J. Windsor
I can't believe this seat is still firmly in the Liberal column. CKWX 1130 did a poll the day Dosanjh was nominated: would you vote for Ujjal as a Liberal? It was something like 70% No. People are mad at Ujjal for making the switch. Even the Liberal predictions here are saying "but I wouldn't be surprised if the Conservatives won." This is way too close to call right now. If anything, I think the Conservatives have the lead.
08/04/04 Scott G.
Email: [hidden]
I think Dosanjh is a thoughtful, principled person who I'd go against traditional party affiliation to vote for. Unlike some NDP supporters, I don't see his recruitment by the Liberals as a betrayal. The NDP can be a frustrating environment for people with functioning minds.
But Dosanjh will have to contend with the NDP working all out against him in order to embarrass him and the Liberals, with Liberal and unaffiliated voters who still associate him with the Glen Clark years (although time, and three years of Gordon Campbell's rule, will lessen this effect), and with supporters of rival candidates for the Liberal nomination here, many of whom will stay home. In 2000, the Liberals won this riding by a much narrower margin than in the neighbouring ridings of Vancouver Centre and Vancouver-Quadra. Dosanjh probably has the edge in this contest, but it wouldn't take a large swing in public opinion against the Liberals for this seat to go to the Tories.
07/04/04 Garth Brasseur
Email: [hidden]
I don't think that there are any safe Liberal ridings in the province. However, if there is one that I would say they were favoured to win, it would be this one. Dosanjh might pull it off as people who usually vote NDP respect him and there is not a perception that the NDP has any chance of winning the riding. Still, I would not be surprised if the Conservatives won here.
05/04/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@yahoo.co.uk
Vancouver South is a tradition Liberal riding (albeit with a Red Tory MP for over 20 years) and was a safe bet for the Liberals anyway... but now that ex-Premier Ujjal Dosanjh is running for the Liberals (while the NDP will probably nominate Bev Meslo... who is all but a joke candidate, and the CPC have chosen a dentist), Vancouver South will be the best Liberal seat west of Wascana.
05/04/04 Mike M.
Ujjal Dosanjh will pick up the Liberal vote that last election went to Herb Dhaliwal and some of the NDP vote. Ujjal is very well liked, despite being defeated in the Provincial NDP collapse in 2001. This is a star candidate running in a strong Liberal riding.
05/04/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
With the Liberals Western Canadian fortunes fading fast I except them to throw their full effort in winning this riding. Especially with one of Paul Martin's handpicked candiates running.
05/04/04 David
Email: [hidden]
Another case of who knows, and who cares.
Dosanjh was the ultra watered down version of the NDP provincially. The only difference between him and Herb Daliwhal is Ujjal has better hair. Voters here won't even notice the difference.
As for predictions that this riding will go NDP - I'd suggest that those people have never been here. Vancouver South is an affluant area with very high property values. There is way too much money here for the NDP to be a serious contender.
Taking this vote away from MiniHerb is going to be like pulling teeth, fortunatly the Conservative candidate has some experiance with that.
I think MiniHerb will win the seat for the Martin Liberals, but this will be one sleeper of a race.
05/04/04 WD
Email: [hidden]
If I were a New Democrat in this riding, I would be so annoyed at Dosanjh that, since there is little difference between Martin and Harper, and a minority Parliament would be best for Canada, and I could not vote for Meslo anyway, I would vote for Dr. Soo Chan.
02/04/04 EP
Email: [hidden]
Bev Meslo is the standard holder for the far left socialist wing of the NDP. With her in the race the NDPer are definetly going to vote for Dosanjh.
02/04/04 Mike P.
Email: [hidden]
Ujjal Dosanjh has been appointed by Martin to run here. NDPer's are not happy; they feel it's a betrayal of their party. Liberals are not happy since they have to work with a former NDPer. NDPer's will work their butts off for Bev Meslo, the NDP candidate, taking support from Dosanjh. Liberals will become disgruntled and vote for the Conservative candidate. Paint this riding Conservative blue. Besides, this riding has a historic tendency to lean to the right anyways.
01/04/04 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca

Although he was the leader of an unpopular provincial government, Ujjal Dosanjh was untainted by scandals that brought down the BC NDP. This reputation for integrity is solid -- and this should be enough to secure his election in Vancouver South. (For what it's worth, I predicted two years ago that he'd run for the Federal Liberals in this cycle.)
31/03/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
So, the Sun says that Ujjal Dosanjh will be the candidate appointed here for the Liberals. This should make the riding go Liberal.
Why he is going to the Liberals now I have no idea.
29/03/04 Garth Brasseur
Email: [hidden]
I've visited this riding in past elections. As I've stated in previous postings, I don't think there are any safe Liberal ridings in British Columbia right now. The recent Leger poll indicates that the electorate is fluid right now. While Vancouver South is probably less so than Vancouver Centre, I think it unwise to have a Liberal prediction right now. I am afraid that the Conservatives might well win here.
29/03/04 Nick
Email: [hidden]
The NDP have a shot at this, there are a number of disaffected Liberals with the current scandals and the ousting of Dhaliwal. Similarly, the Conservatives will lose their progressives, and with the current scandals some of them will vote NDP, or simply not vote.
26/03/04 Vortigern
Email: [hidden]
Up in the air at the moment. This could fall to the Conservatives, but only if they were performing much better in the polls. The Vancouver ridings are very tough to predict at the moment. Were I forced to, I would call it Liberal, largely because I don't see the NDP bleeding off a great deal of Liberal support here.
20/03/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
The loss of Herb D will harm the Liberals - incumbency and power helped him hold the seat after winning in 1993.
The Liberals have no serious name candidates interested in this riding that I know of.
The Cons will benefit from the toning down of the ref/ca politics with the new conservative party.
While Paul Martin is a popular leader in this area, so is Stephen Harper.
17/03/04 Ghoris
Email: [hidden]
I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that the Conservatives could win here. This riding has a long history of voting Tory before the 1993 debacle (John Fraser owned this seat for almost two decades). Boundary changes make it much less favourable for the Liberals as it loses Liberal-friendly polls in Burnaby and picks up less hospitable territory from Quadra. Plus the lingering bad blood over the Martin vs. Dhaliwal fights at the executive level (which prompted Dhaliwal not to run again) could further hurt the Liberal campaign. The Liberals may also bleed some left votes to a resurgent NDP. If the Conservatives nominate the right candidate (and the Liberals the wrong one), all of these factors could combine for a surprise Conservative win. Although it's by no means in the bag, this is probably the Conservatives' best chance for a steal in the GVRD.
17/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
The Liberals will make a real fight here, this riding will dictate Liberal support, if the Liberals cannot win it, they are dead in BC
17/03/04 J. Windsor
That's not quite true...Van-Centre has been home to H.H. Stevens, Doug Jung, Pat Carney and Kim Campbell. It's winnable Tory territory. Hedy has been a greater embarassment than ever in the past four years, and she's been dumped from cabinet with no hope of getting back in. Between this and all the scandals going on, this seat is big time vulnerable. And the Tories' Gary Mitchell could take it. Mitchell should really be more worried about the NDP candidate. This riding is going to be sliced three ways and could be a 34%-style victory.
17/03/04 J. Windsor
Wuh-oh...the Tories just nominated Dr. Victor Soo Chan, a local dentist. With cabmin Dhaliwal stepping down, and the NDP siphoning off Liberal votes, this could be a problem. Add up the PC and CA vote totals and Dr. Soo Chan is going into this one with 40% already. Ron Jack ran for the CA last time, and after all of Stockwell's embarassments and one of Ron's own where his campaign team got arrested in a skytrain station, he still got 34%. Dr. Soo Chan could stay in bed for the whole campaign and be a better candidate. Dr. Soo Chan's softspoken, sincere style will resonate well with voters in this riding. Tory pick-up.
17/03/04 Objective Observer
Email: objectiveobserver2004@yahoo.ca
Since the 1940's Vancouver South has been traditionally held by the Liberals with the exception of the 1957/1958 PC victories during the Diefenbaker era. John Fraser, a red Tory, held the seat from 1972 to 1993. With the resurgence of the federal Liberals in B.C. over the last decade and the urban red Tory vote switching to the Liberals, this seat will remain a Liberal hold.

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