Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Vancouver Quadra
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
12:54 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:39 AM 5/15/2004

Constituency Profile
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David Askew
Katrina Chowne
Canadian Action canadienne:
Connie Fogal
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Stephen Owen
Stephen Rogers
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Doug Warkentin
Donovan Young

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Vancouver Centre (29.1%)
Hon. Hedy Fry
Vancouver Quadra (70.9%)
Hon. Stephen Owen

2000 Result/Résultats:
23,060 43.81%
18,144 34.47%
4,928 9.36%
3,703 7.04%
2,797 5.31%

Vancouver Centre
(68/275 polls, 23819/96047 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Vancouver Quadra
(166/232 polls, 58078/78359 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 W. Wong
Email: [hidden]
I have to agree with C. Morton's point. I bus through a portion of Quadra to get to school every day and I would say that in the parts of the riding that I have seen, Stephen Rogers and Stephen Owen are pretty much tied in the number of properties with signs. David Askew is further behind and I have seen two or three Green Party signs as well.
I also don't think the Liberals should expect much last minute support from NDP voters wanting to prevent a Conservative government because in this riding, I believe that most NDP supporters are staunch in their support even though they are small in number (and I believe that includes some of the students living in the riding).
23/06/04 Victor A.
Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com
Vancouver-Quadra is no doubt the safest Liberal riding in British Columbia. The urban, affluent character of it can only help the Liberals. The same goes, when it comes to the high number of University graduates in the riding. The Liberal party of Canada will win a respectable 6 BC ridings, ( The same result as in the last election ). Along with Quadra, they'll win Vancouver Kingsway, Vancouver South, Richmond, Victoria and Esquaimault-Juan de Fuca ( their only gain from the CPC ). They will lose Vancouver-Centre to the NDP. They also have a chance to win in New Westminster-Coquaitlam and Burnaby-New Westminster, but I don't rank them as favorites in neither of those two.
22/06/04 Liu Bang
Email: [hidden]
It will be close, very close even, but I think that Stephen Owen will scrape through as the NDP's Askew splits the anti-Liberal vote with the Conservative.
22/06/04 Liu Bang
Email: [hidden]
I'm venturing to guess that the fourth Liberal "star" Dave Emerson will be tasting defeat on June 28th. I think Ian Waddell will be returning to Ottawa by a comfortable margin. Even with the Liberal recovery in the national polls, the local folks here are going to punish the Liberals for ramming candidates down their throats.
22/06/04 Adam
Email: [hidden]
Vancouver Quadra represents the ultimate paradoxical selection of candidates. On the one hand, incumbent MP Stephen Owen is a member of an unpopular scandal-plagued government, something that threatens his incumbency from the outset. That said, however, Owen has a remarkable record and reputation as the Liberals' 'Mr. Clean', and can take credit by all accounts for much of the positive changes brought about by the half-year-old Martin government vis-a-vis corruption and graft.
At the same time, Owen's principal opponent, Conservative candidate Stephen Rogers, is a member of a party that is riding a massive wave of support that can trace much of its roots to the party's promise to clean up government corruption and waste. Even so, Rogers' record hardly stands up to the promises made by his party. While a Social Credit cabinet minister in British Columbia in the 1980s he was twice forced to resign amid allegations of conflict-of-interest.
Because the candidate of the sparkling new Conservatives has mud on his shoes while the incumbent member of the dirty Liberals is squeaky clean, it stands to reason that the positive reputation of the incumbent will win the day in Quadra.
21/06/04 Barin
Email: [hidden]
Door knocking with the candidate is yielding very positive results. Secondary voter id polling (calling back the undecided from the first round) shows the Conservative candidate trending upwards moving the Conservative candidate into a lead. I am not sure why this riding is listed as Liberal safe seat, when the writing is on the wall that Rogers is going to roll through Quadra like a diesel truck and Owen is left to drive for his live in a little convertible volkswagon.
20/06/04 C. Morton
Email: [hidden]
I'm not sure what Barin's talking about. If Stephen Rogers has "signs all over Quadra", then so do Stephen Owen and David Askew; the two Stephens have about the same number of signs out, with Askew having maybe two-thirds as many. To be frank, there are very few signs of any kind on display throughout the riding; if you find a block with a half-dozen supporting a given candidate, chances are five of them are on one property. Furthermore, we have yet to be canvassed by supporters of any party, and have received a mailer from only the NDP. The claim that the Conservatives have some sort of grassroots advantage is not warranted.
20/06/04 Bruce Stewart
Email: [hidden]
A very odd sight yesterday ... it seems to me that a number of Stephen Owen (Liberal) signs have been removed from private properties in the past few days. No destroyed or toppled signs were about; the houses were nice and neat. It just appears as though the owners have had them removed. This is through the middle of the riding, cruising along 16th Avenue and King Edward Avenue, and on Macdonald, Blenheim and Dunbar Streets. Both Rogers and Askew signs in the neighbourhood continue to grow. On the strength of this I'd say Rogers is now likely to take the riding; it would appear Owen is bleeding both to the Conservatives and to the NDP, much more so that I would have expected.
20/06/04 LJ
Email: [hidden]
Owen is still the favourite, but it is really a tough call. Askew, the New Democrat, is FAR more visible than any NDP candidate I've ever seen in this riding, and he is doing very well with the sign battle--slightly ahead in some areas. Regardless, he's up against pretty steep competition with this pair of opponents in a high income area. Looking at last time around, the Alliance candidate did very well here, so if Askew erodes the edges from Owen, this could potentially let Rogers (who is running strong, especially in the uber-rich parts of a generally well-to-do riding) take it in a close one. I wouldn't bet on either of them at this point.
20/06/04 George
Email: [hidden]
Quadra will go to the Conservatives for four reasons:
First, Stephen Owen is an incumbent Liberal cabinet minister who is attached to the sponsorship scandal and a few of his own. Stephen Owen is a Liberal cabinet minister who has dishonoured his constituents by blindly (if blandly) defending the scandalous behavior of his cabinet colleagues.
Second, Stephen Owen further dishonoured his constituents when he admitted there was political involvement at the highest levels in the sponsorship scandal in an interview with the Globe and Mail earlier this month. This comes after previously defending those same cabinet colleagues in the House of Commons and in the media.
Third, Owen is running a terrible campaign. His defensive presentations at all candidates' fora, and his mediocre efforts to promote any service he may have performed for his riding are tiresome. When asked about his own shortcomings as a Liberal cabinet minister he demurs and obfuscates. He's obviously been well schooled in Liberal Party tricks.
Fourth, the visibility and strength of the Conservative Party candidate tells me that Stephen Rogers wants to win this race. Rogers is experienced and it shows. His presentation at the all candidates' events is polished and reassuring. He held a public meeting earlier this week that was attended by some 250 people. Rogers knows the local issues; he understood the national issues and he articulated his party platform with enthusiasm.
Stephen Rogers for the Conservatives is clearly up to the job. A massive billboard is up in the middle of the riding, the campaign office is abuzz with aggressive young volunteers every time I visit Choices supermarket next door, and the distribution of his signs across the riding is impressive.
15/06/04 Barin
Email: [hidden]
Roger's signs all over Quadra, He has like 30 volunteers a night out canvassing for his campaign, I know as I live close by. Owen is basically left on his own as the Martin boat has capsized and is sinking. I predict a Rogers win.
15/06/04 duane
Email: duane@snille.com
Quadra should be an interesting riding. Even though Owen may hold this seat, I think Rogers has a very good chance at an upset. Rogers was a pretty popular MLA/cabnet minister in an unpopular Social Credit gov't. Owen has been a muffer and a fumbler. When he was parachuted in here last election, we thought he'd be a breath of fresh air, somewhat free from the party ties that bind, and loyal to his constituents, not the party brass. After all, he was the provincial Ombudsman, before Gordon Campbell decided we didn't need such a position here in BC -seeing how his gov't was going to be free of scandal and represent everybody fairly, yah right- and as Ombudsman, he needed to put objectivity first and foremost. This clearly has not been the case. If the riding had the same boundaries as last election, I believe Rogers would win easily. However, with the growth of Vancouver Centre, many people who used to live in that more Liberal riding have been GerryMandered into Quadra. The ex-VanCentre Liberals may be the difference to put Owen over the top. On the other hand, BC will generally be anti-Liberal as we are traditionally, and there will be an anti-Gordon Campbell/anti-Liberal vote, even though the Provincial and Federal parties maintain a distance from each other.
15/06/04 r.r.
Email: [hidden]
I must say that I'm really suprised about the media attention the quadra riding has been getting. The Vancouver Courier writing an article title "Even Stephens" and how similar the two men are??
Did the reporter do any research? The fact is that Stephen Rogers was forced to resign twice from a scandalous government and in the past has made several incredibly offensive comments (inclduing comments toward the Haida community), whereas the Liberals Stephen Owen really has quite a clean record and does seem to stand up for his morals.
I would like to see the media outlets dig a bit and not be afraid of airing information (whether it be good or bad) about the candidates. I think it's offensive to omit such blatant information from an article such as the one in the latest edition of the Vancouver Courier.
13/06/04 Dan
Email: [hidden]
This is a close race. It shouldn't be. Stephen Rogers knows the riding, and represented the area well in the provincial legislature for nearly two decades. On the other hand, Stephen Owen has fumbled about with his public comments at almost every opportunity. The reason he gave in one interview that he voted against having an independently appointed ethics commissioner was that the motion was proposed by the CA; he did not say that the proposed legislation was bad, only brought in by the wrong people. This is not an attitude that goes over well in Quadra.
12/06/04 The Great Wall of Whiner
Email: The Great Wall of Whiner
Given the new poll numbers province-wide, and looking at Mr. Roger's high-profile in the province, this riding should be "too close to call".
I'm not going to call it; it's too close even for a political veteran like me!
12/06/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
Although, there are no real safe federal Liberal seats in BC this one comes close. Meaning, Stephen Owen will be returned to Ottawa by a narrow margin.
10/06/04 David C.
Email: [hidden]
Contrary to what someone said below the riding didn't add the more conservative portions of South Vancouver. The riding is actually much smaller now and that in question area has been redistributed to Vancouver-South, which will cause Ujall Dosanjh more trouble than it, will Stephen Owen. The high-income neighbourhoods aren't necessarily conservative -- what they are more bell-weather than anything else (although of course it's almost impossible that the NDP would be elected here). Since Stephen Owen is a high profile Minister the citizens of this riding are likely to re-elect him -- partially because of that fact. While Rogers the Conservative candidate has previous experience as a minister with the Social Credit provincial administration and is a fairly moderate conservative all this talk about social issues, like opposing abortion, won't play well in an urban riding and socially liberal (fiscally conservative) riding like Vancouver-Quadra -- even though the sponsership scandal is still plaguing the Liberals.
09/06/04 Dave
Email: [hidden]
This has got to go back into too close to call. If the Liberals lose any seat within Vancouver city limits, it's this one. Owen's continuing war of words with Jean Pelletier is only keeping the internal division in the Liberal party alive and keeps reminding the electorate what they don't like about the Liberal's record. While Owen is probably seen by most people as being more "squeaky clean" that Rogers, the tories certainly have a strong candidate. The ancient history presented by other commentators (in a certainly coloured and biased manner) will have little play or relevance.
07/06/04 Bruce Stewart
Email: [hidden]
Follow up to my earlier posting. Still no election material from the Cons (Rogers), although both the NDP (Askew) and Libs (Owen) have done one drop. More Rogers signs now showing up in Dunbar area, and more Askews than I expected to see; Owen still winning sign war in the north & Rogers in the south of the riding. Owen's comments revitalising the sponsorship scandal (reported on the front page of the Globe and Mail) I read as a negative sign from his campaign. My guess is that enough votes will go NDP to swing the riding back to the Conservatives, although the see-saw of the parties here in BC still make this anyone's race.
06/06/04 Harvey in Quadra
Email: [hidden]
The unnamed entry below this is correct in implying that the majority of the polls in the NEW Vancouver Quadra riding voted Conservative in the 70's and 80's. Bill Clarke and John Fraser won majority support in the southern 2/3 of the new riding, while Pat Carney, and later Kim Campbell, received strong support in the Kitsilano area (the northern third) that has joined Quadra for the 2004 election. Quadra voters in the 90's switched to the Liberals. The point is that Quadra is a conservative, but swing riding. And it is a riding that cannot be bribed with election goodies. Its Asian voters are successful and entrepreneurial, and are inclined to want a return to good government and lower taxes.
The Alliance and PC votes from 2000,if combined, would have beaten the Liberal. As the NDP is running a stronger candidate now in 2004, NDP voters will be inclined to leave the Liberals and return to voting NDP. Worse for the Liberals, is that Stephen Owen is tarred not only with scandal and waste, but also his recorded vote to have the ethics commissioner report to the PMO (which he campaigned against in 2000). As mentioned below, Stephen Rogers for the Conservatives, is a well-regarded small-businessman with more cabinet experience than Owen. Not surprisingly, the Owen Liberals are rumoured to be very worried with Owen. He has now attacked the former Prime Minister's government over scandals, without mentioning he was a member of that government
Many Liberal voters from 2000 are posting Conservative signs on their lawns. The Conservatives have every reason to expect to re-take Quadra.
Email: [hidden]
This riding has been a solid win for Bill Clarke of the Conservatives all through the 70's and well into the 80's. Quadra has only gone Liberal of late through the running of Prime Minister John Turner and subsequently the right-wing vote split and voter anger at the Mulroney government. Bear in mind that the riding includes Shaughnessy and other high-income neighbourhoods, and since the change in riding boundaries, has pared off the more left-leaning eastern part of the riding and has taken on well-to-do parts of Vancouver South that historically voted for John Fraser of the Conservatives. I think with a combined Alliance-Conservative voter base, this riding has a strong chance of going Tory. Moreover, Rogers has the credibility of being a moderate Tory/Socred that will appeal to the soft Liberal vote. As an aside, I will say that the signage so far has been strong for Owen out of the gate, but Rogers is catching up.
02/06/04 Vortigern
Email: [hidden]
Having travelled through various parts of my home riding, I'd have to say Stephen Owen probably has the lead in the sign-battle. Down south, along 41st, and especially along Marine Drive, Rogers looks to have the lead, though Owen is prominent, and the others are very sparse. Along 12th, however, Rogers signs seem very rare, with Owen in the lead, Askew second, and even the Greens making a comparatively respectable showing.
It all points to what we know already. Rogers will win polls in the south, while Owen wins them in the north. There may be a risk of support bleeding to David Askew - and to be honest, I've seen more campaign material from him than Owen, and nothing at all from Rogers. Until the Conservatives are polling comparably with the Alliance from 2000, however, I'd continue to put this in the Liberal column.
25/05/04 B.A.S.
Email: [hidden]
A couple of factors combine to make this a definite Conservative pickup. Owen may be in the next Liberal cabinet if they win, but only maybe. If they win and Bill Cunningham wins in Burnaby Douglas, a big if, then Owen is out. Cunningham will take the Lower Mainland's seat at the table.
The strength of the ND candidate combined with growing anger at the Liberals will make for big gains in the ND vote.
The Conservatives hold the combined vote from 2000 and win on the basis of vote-splitting on the left.
25/05/04 Full Name
Email: [hidden]
I am very surprised that you have put this riding in the Liberal column. If you research the riding's history, it has vacilated between Liberal and Tory consistently. It went Tory during the Joe Clark minority government and in 1980. In fact, the rational for it being Liberal for the last few elections, was a) John Turner, the Liberal Party leader, was from here, and b) Overly socially conservative leaders, for this more 'libertarian' riding and vote splitting on the right--both of which no longer apply. It was very close in '97 and '00, with only a few thousand votes between the CA and Liberal candidates, add the PC to CA you get a win, although obviously the math isn't exact.
Similarly, this time around the Conservatives are fielding a much better candidate in Rogers. Findlay was a one-issue candidate last time around, and Rogers is much stronger, with obvious BC blue-blood roots.
In general I have to say that your BC predictions are a little suspect. BC for the last couple of elections always give the Liberals "hope" in the beginning, but then seems to turn against them strongly. You'd do well to remember this before placing so many ridings in the "too close to call" column, or prematurely awarding Liberal riding "wins."
25/05/04 Bruce Stewart
Email: [hidden]
Early days in the Dunbar section of the riding shows a rash of Owen signs (and the destruction of a few Askew signs during the first 48 hours since the call. Only one sign so far noted for Rogers.
That said, I think this riding may be closer than shown (as of 25-05-2004 called for Owen/Lib). Owen is clearly in line for demotion to the backbenches, has not been a strong Minister, and has revealed himself to be another parrot of the Martin line. His campaign organization is rejecting help (as a long time Liberal worker of my acquaintance who lives in the riding said: "I went to help, they turned me away because I was not 'one of them'. I'm helping next door in Kingsway ... and not planning to vote for Owen.") As the Liberals lose a few points during the campaign, Owen could well be in trouble; I'm expecting a very close race with all three candidates viable and the Green votes deciding the outcome.
25/05/04 C. Hanger
Email: [hidden]
Mr. Owen (aka Mr. Clean) vs. Mr. Rogers (aka Mr. Robinson Eddie Murphy Character on SNL)
Not knowing anything about Liberal Inside information but as an ordinary electorate, I have to disagree with Jonathan who was probably involved in the Chretien/Martin infighting before submitting his opinion.
Based on the candidates alone and what they have done for their Ridings, the former BC Ombudsman, Mr. Owen is as honest and respectable as any of his other great British Columbian family members the former Lieutenant Governor, Walter Steward Owen, the former Vancouver Mayor, Phillip Owen, and Philanthropist/Artist, John Koerner. So Mr. Owen would get my vote without basing it on political association. He has no blemishes on his personal record and those issues that Jonathan claims were improprieties may have been caused by ill advise from the former PMO puppeteers.
However, if we look at the other Vancouver Quadra candidates most are either old and yesterdays men compared to Mr. Owen who is in his late 40s and early 50s. David Askew must be in his 60's and his votes will be split with the other left wing parties , the Green Party and the Canadian Action Party while Mr. Rogers is 65 and a former scandal ridden Bill Vanderzalm SOCRED retread. If you don't believe me here is his history.
Rogers, Charles Stephen
- May 1976: Rogers said both inside and outside the legislature that most B.C. wines are not true wines at all because they are not made from pure grapes but are adulterated with grain alcohol, chemical and other substances. He described most B.C. wines as resembling "a collection of zoological samples." He later apologized to the wine industry, but after demanding a retraction of the original article that reported his comments.
- Gained a name for himself as a backbencher in 1977, when he exposed a government official’s stock market activities and prompting investigations into land speculation along the proposed route of the Grizzly Valley pipeline. "It was Rogers’ first brush with conflict of interest and the only one in his 11 years in government where he was the accuser, not the accused."
- 1986: while acting as minister of health for the province, Rogers was forced to resign over charges from Progressive Conservative leader Peter Pollen that he had breached the Financial Disclosures Act. Rogers failed to include a $100 000 investment in Western Pulp Ltd. (a company with an interest in timber from the South Moresby region), a joint debt to the Bank of B.C., and ownership of more than 30% in Montgomery Investments Ltd. And Star Leasing Ltd., while filling out the required disclosure form. He subsequently pleaded guilty and was granted and absolute discharge, but was refused any immediate return to the cabinet by Bill Bennett.
- 1986: ran in the Socred leadership race in Whistler, but dropped out after the first ballot with 43 votes.
- 1987: involved in more controversy following his return from a business trip in Britain, when he suggested to reporters that the large unemployment in the UK was a problem particular to "poor white trash." Rogers told reporters outside the legislature: "There’s no unemployment among the skilled or educated people, but there is substantial unemployment amongst the really poor white trash." Opposition leader Mark Rose called for his resignation and Rogers initially denied in the legislature that he had made the statement. The next day, he apologized to the house after hearing a reporter’s tape of his comments.
- January 1988: Rogers faced allegations that the Rogers family trust, which included shares in MacMillan Bloedel and it’s parent company Noranda mines, were a conflict of interest with his position of minister of the environment and parks. It was also later disclosed that Rogers held shares in Westmin Resources Ltd., which had substantial mining claims in Strathcona Park (one of the six parks affected by Rogers’ rezoning to allow development of mining claims) as well as family trust shares in Cominco ltd. And Norcen Energy Resources. Both companies had uranium claims in B.C.
- Feb. 27th 1987: West Vancouver police found the son of then Highways Minister Stephen Rogers was driving a car, registered to the provincial government, in which two of his friends were charged with being minors in possession of liquor. "Deputy chief Jack Ross said the incident began when police received reports of youths drinking in a car parked in the White Spot restaurant lot at Park Royal.
- Aug. 1989: while acting as Vancouver South Social Credit MLA, Stephen Rogers was fined $100 in provincial court for careless flying. Rogers pleaded guilty to failing to ensure the path of his float plane was clear when he took off from a lake on Saltspring Island, striking a pleasure craft containing Edward Aird, of Coquitlam, and his children Michael, 13, and Jennifer, 9. The charges were later withdrawn after the guilty plea was entered.
Therefore, he has been out of politics for 20 years and I think he should stay retired and collect his current MLA/provincial pension without double dipping in the taxpayer funded Federal Pension.
23/05/04 TDH Strategies
Email: jonathan@tdhstrategies.com
Stephen Rogers was most definitely bored and uninspired during the municipal campaign, and with good reason...his party has the absolute worst Mayoral candidate in Vancouver history, and absolutely no resources or support to speak of. Rest assured, he is not feeling the same way about this particular race.
Owen has been absolutely horrible in his handling of the sponsorship scandal, and looked like a backbencher thrust into the spotlight unwillingly. He stumbled, he seemed confused, and continued to use the same force fed PMO talking points everyday in the House. 3 front page stories in the Vancouver Sun regarding impropriety of the way he mismanaged funds in WED and the shady manner in which his former EA was handled (double dipping from the government - pension + salary + untendered contract = dirty dealings).
The NDP candidate seems to be strong and relatively well known in the community, which is a far cry from previous NDP offerings.
Rogers, however, has a strong, strong team behind him, the full support of the party, and knows how to campaign because of 6 victories in his past. Owen, on the other hand, has been essentially abandoned internally, as Marrisen and crew are looking to Dosanjh, Anderson and future Senior BC Minister David Emerson (assuming he wins of course) to fill the Cabinet boots. Owen is on the way out, and while struggling to remain a force internally in the party, is being shoved out and left for dead.
Rogers wins this because the NDP pulls off enough votes from Owen and Rogers runs a tip top campaign to pull it through.
18/05/04 Pollwatcher
Email: [hidden]
Too soon to call this one, folks. The NDP are running David Askew, the first serious candidate they've run in Quadra in many years. Disaffection with the libs, plus Owen's decidedly lackluster performance in representing his constituents, plus the recent success of both Jack Layton and Stephen Harper in defining themselves as legitimate alternatives to Paul Martin means the NDP could pick up significant support here, support that would come at Owen's expense. Given how close the last election was, a drop in liberal support could afford an opportunity for the tory candidate to run up the proverbial middle. This one's on the bubble and will likely remain so well into the election.
18/05/04 Dennis
Email: [hidden]
The reason the Liberals won this seat in 1984 when they were reduced to 40 seats was because their leader ran in the riding. Otherwise, this was a Tory stronghold. Look for Stephen Rogers to pick this one up.
13/05/04 Mr. Mischief
Email: [hidden]
Although I hate the thought of it, this will be a Liberal victory. When the Liberals only owned one riding in all of Vancouver, this was it. When the Liberals were reduced to their lowest number of seats in history, 40, and wiped off the map in the west, they held this seat. "TOO CLOSE TO CALL" ?!?!
10/05/04 Ian King
Email: vancouverscrum@myrealbox.com
I still figure an Owen win, but with a couple of comments. Stephen Rogers is a good candidate on paper; one of the least radical candidates in his party, and part of the Vancouver establishment -- both good fits for a riding that has large elements of university intelligentsia, old money, and yuppified "limousine liberals," especially north of West 16th. Quadra's affluence is not much help to Rogers; as others have pointed out on this site, Canadians don't vote along class lines like they used to. (Look at the large number of less well-off ridings the CA took in 2000 even as the Liberals held places like Quadra, Toronto Centre-Rosedale, and St Paul's.) Rogers's advantage is that he's more a natural politician than Owen, although Rogers did appear to be going through the motions in his recent (unsuccessful) bid for city council. Perhaps he's more on top of his game this time out. We'll see.
Looking at the various parts of the riding, you could safely say that Kits and the UBC endowment lands (together forming nearly 40% of the riding population) will strongly favour the Liberals; Owen probably also has a slight edge in West Point Grey. Rogers will likely outpoll Owen somewhat in Kerrisdale, Southlands, Mackenzie Heights, and Arbutus-Ridge, but those areas are about 30% of the riding. The rest of the riding is going to be a saw-off, even Shaughnessy -- both the Owens and the Rogerses have left their marks in said enclave. With the NDP not likely to do much better in this riding than last time, I still think that Owen will win by 5-10% of the popular vote.
Ugly American: Rogers doesn't have to worry about association with the cable company, which sold its BC holdings over to Shaw. Those who care, know that his family's the Rogers in the BC Sugar brand. On the other hand, he WAS part of the VanderZalm government...
08/05/04 Ugly American
Email: [hidden]
Tough to call and clearly a Tory target. But as of May 04 looks like Liberals will tough it out on points. Esp. incumbent minister & favorable boundary change. Though NDP surge could give the Grits a very close shave, or worse. Fearless prediction: Liberals
Question: will some voters associate Rogers with the cable company, and if so can that be good? Think it would be the kiss of death down here in Seattle!
24/04/04 Vortigern
Email: [hidden]
How many people in Quadra have actually heard of Stephen Rogers? He hasn't won an election in nearly 20 years, and even then, he was representing the provincial constituency of Vancouver South. At the time, most of the newly adjusted Quadra riding was part of the consitituency of Vancouver Point-Grey, which basically consisted of everything west of Arbutus. The last time Rogers won in Vancouver South (1986), the people of Point Grey elected Darlene Marzari of the NDP to the legislature.
With the old boundaries, and good Conservative numbers provincially, I would have given Rogers a chance. With Kits now in Quadra, and with the recent Environics poll showing the Conservatives at 30% in BC (exactly the same as in the previous Environics poll, I might add), Stephen Owen will be returned to parliament.
19/04/04 J. Windsor
Stephen "Sugar Daddy" Rogers is running. A former 16-year MLA and cabinet minister, he is easily recognized as vocal, quality cabinet material. People from Eastern Canada, understand: Stephen Rogers is of the Rogers sugar family. That's the BC version of the Labatt family or the Eaton family.
Owen is good, but he isn't great, and sitting in the Public Works chair doesn't help him amidst the sponsorship scandal. Last time he won against an Alliance candidate who was fixated on a singular local issue most people didn't care about, and a former Tory MP who, near 70 years of age, ran a half-hearted campaign out of party loyalty.
With the right united behind him, people are getting excited about Rogers' return to politics.
While Ontario and the Atlantic remains to be seen, the Tories will sweep Western Canada and this wealthy riding will be one you can chalk up in the Tories' column for election night.
13/04/04 ERB
Email: [hidden]
It will be close here, I think, but right now I'm prepared to venture a guess, which is a CPC victory with a margin of no more than a few hundred votes to spare. The key will be a siphoning away of Liberal votes to the NDP, which can't win Quadra but can make a respectable showing (20% give or take) and hurt the Liberals.
12/04/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
You know, I am actually surprised that Stephen Rogers was not recruited to run for the Martin Liberals. Getting him is a coup for the CPC.
Last time the CA ran Kerry Findlay - smart lawyer but was obsessed with a single local issue that effected only a few people in the area. She hurt herself with that.
Now last time I noted the Owens family is old BC establishment, there are only a few families older and more established - Rogers heing one.
Stephen Rogers is personable and centrist candidate. Stephen Owen does nto look ready for the hustings. Stephen Rogers is a perfect fit for the riding - they are his people.
But Owen is the incumbent.
Too close to call, and I suspect will be so until late on election night
08/04/04 Scott G.
Email: [hidden]
Barring a collapse in Liberal support in BC, I think the Liberals can keep this seat. The numbers in the last election were similar to those in neigbouring Vancouver Centre and Vancouver South - combined PC / Alliance totals a few hundred votes more than the Liberal winner's total. But there are differences that make this riding safer.
Particularly, the NDP isn't going to take many votes here, and it's likely that Stephen Owen can win the votes of many people who would otherwise vote NDP or Green. Owen was appointed in 2000 as someone who would appeal to educated and left-leaning voters. The Liberals rightly calculated that voters in the riding that includes the University of BC campus would support someone with an academic and government background, known (at least in those circles) for his work in the areas of dispute resolution, international human rights and the environment. Owen was never a politician as such prior to running for the Liberals, so he doesn't have the political baggage that Ujjal Dosanjh does. As they did here in '97, it appears the NDP will nominate a university student, who I'm guessing is also a party activist. I imagine the NDP strategy will be to focus on other Vancouver ridings where they have an incumbent (Van East), a high-profile candidate (Kingsway), an outside shot at winning (Van Centre), or strong motivation to play the spoiler (Van South, where they hope to embarrass Dosanjh and his new Liberal masters).
As for the Tory candidate, it's harder to tell what impact Stephen Rogers' history as a Vander Zalm cabinet minister will have. Several of Rogers' former colleagues in the Socred governments of the '80s made comebacks as BC Liberal MLAs in 2001, and I believe West Vancouver Tory MP John Reynolds was also in Vander Zalm's cabinet. While Vancouver-Quadra is home to many educated leftists, it's also much like West Vancouver, in that both contain Vancouver's wealthiest neigbourhoods. I certainly think Rogers has a decent chance. Against a Liberal candidate who was more obviously compromised, like Hedy Fry, and / or in a riding where the NDP was a contender or a spoiler, someone with Rogers' political experience might be the favourite. But probably not against Owen.
07/04/04 Garth Brasseur
Email: [hidden]
I don't believe there are any ridings in British Columbia that are safe for the Liberals. In recent polls are indicative of a trend, I believe the NDP vote will increase enough to make the Conservatives the winners of this riding.
05/04/04 Rooney Tunes
Email: [hidden]
Owen did not recieve much more than the combined Alliance-PC vote in 2000. Then, he was a new star candidate from an established family facing off a divided right and a lacklustre Alliance candidate. Now, he has been given responsibility for cleaning up the sponsorship scandal and has even been caught up in a few questionable practices of his own. With a united right behind star candidate Stephen Rogers, I think this one might go Conservative...but it will be close!
05/04/04 David
Email: [hidden]
Milton you're right people do short memories when it comes to politics. All I can remember about the Liberals is a billion dollar HRDC scandal, a waste of money on a gun registry and who knows how much missing on the public works scandal. Paul Martin wrote all those cheques and now wait a minute what is Stephen Owen's ministry - and if you think the fact that he wasn't minister at the time will be something voters think about - you're wrong.
01/04/04 Katey
Email: [hidden]
If Rogers is popular, it must be in the grey-haired crowd because I have no recollection of him at all (I'm in my 30s). As for Owen, although his party is in trouble, he still seems pretty clean to me. I was really hoping that a young dymanic candidate would stand for the CPC. Don't see much difference between Rogers and Owen myself.
01/04/04 Milton
Email: [hidden]
Right David, because so many of us remember personalities from the social credit days... all I can remember is some guy named Vander Zalm and Fantasy Gardens
31/03/04 David
Email: [hidden]
With Stephen Rogers as the nominated Tory candidate this will be a CPC pickup. A very popular former cabinet minister and speaker of the BC Legislature, up against a weak scandal laden minister, makes this a Tory pick-up.
29/03/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
First off, Stephen Owen is part of the Owens family of Vancouver - serious old establishment, his cousin was Mayor until fall of 2002. He is well grounded in Van Quadra.
Second, Stephen Owen boosted the Liberals in BC last time, it was amazing the convinced him to run. My take is that is still more popular than the party in general.
Third, the opposition is the Cons and they will have a harder time than last time as the riding has lost gound friendly to them and gained Liberal friendly ground, but it is worth noting that this riding had a higher PC/CA vote than Liberal vote (and the CA did well with Stock Day as leader and a candidate focusing on an anti-musqueam tirade)
So I am saying Owen, but not safely
29/03/04 Objective Observer
Email: objectiveobserver2004@yahoo.ca
After further thought, I have placed this in the Liberal column for the following reasons:
1. The City of Vancouver had the highest concentration of Liberal voters during 2000;
2. Vancouver Quadra received the 2nd highest level of Liberal support in B.C.;
3. Stephen Owen now has the benefit of incumbency and is respected;
4. The CPC will likely not garner the 2000 level of support in B.C. at 49%;
5. The CPC is slightly to the right of the old PC party which is less favourable in an urban, highly-educated riding such as Vancouver Quadra;
6. Former 2000 PC voters are likely red-tory in nature and probably would trend toward the Martin-led Liberal candidate;
28/03/04 David
Email: [hidden]
I'm not prepared to call this riding for the Liberals or the Conservatives yet. Stephen Rogers - if he wins the nomination would definatly tilt the scales towards my party though. Stephen Owen is not, as someone said earlier, part of the Vancouver establishment - he was a parachuted candidate from Ontario in 2000. There's an awful lot of money in this riding, but just enough University votes to pull the left of the Liberals to the NDP and give this riding to the Tories.
26/03/04 Vortigern
Email: [hidden]
As a resident in the riding, I'm confident this will go Liberal. In contrast to last time, Owen is now an incumbent, and a very visible minister to boot. Furthermore, the inclusion of Kitsilano through boundary adjustment heavily favours the Liberals. The strong Alliance campaign in 2000 failed, and no strong candidate is on the horizon. I would guess 45% Liberal, 35% Conservative.
26/03/04 S. Lee
Email: [hidden]
I think that this is too close to call, especially now that the PC and Alliance have merged. Vancouver Quadra has typically been split between the east and west halves, the east half voting Liberal and the west half voting Conservative with respect to the affluency of each region. With the right-wing vote split, it certainly was one of the Liberal's safest seats in the West, but I suspect that the swing vote will be determined by the campaign promises the two parties make.
20/03/04 Jesse Hoffman
Not much to say about this one. With the CPC running in third in BC, this is a very very safe Liberal seat. The only thing to watch will be if the NDP can sneak ahead of the Conservatives for second place.
19/03/04 Ian King
Email: vancouverscrum@myrealbox.com
Surely the safest Liberal seat in British Columbia. Vancouver Quadra's fiscal and social tastes are more those of an upscale Toronto riding than one in Calgary. Blame it on old money, that darned university, or what-have-you, but Quadra's 'conservatism' tends towards that of the Red Tory/business Liberal variety, not the dare-I-call-it lowbrow Reform flavour. Stephen Owen has the advantages of incumbency combined with a still-quite-clean image, a holdover from his days as provincial ombudsman in the '80's. The Owen family name is as good as gold on Vancouver's West Side. Finally, redistribution favours the Liberals by removing conservative (by Vancouver standards, mind) Oakridge and Marpole from Quadra and bringing in Kitsilano, a most liberal and Liberal part of town. The Conservatives'hope rests on the fact that the combined Tory and Alliance votes were more than Owen's in 2000, but that weas also when the two parties had a combined support of 57% in BC, and before redistribution. Can you stuff all those voters into a big blue bag and knock off Owen? I'd say no -- unless you think that the CPC will take more than 50% of the vote, and that everyone who voted PC or CA last time out would vote for the new party and then some.
The only hope for the Conservatives is to catch some sort of electoral landslide combined with a gangbuster of a candidate. While former BC cabinet mininster Stephen Rogers might be attractive as a Conservative rival -- he's every bit a part of the Vancouver establishment as is Stephen Owen -- he's been out of the political game for over a decade, and his 2002 campaign for city council fell flat. The NDP's base in Quadra is so small that any NDP siphoning off of onetime Liberal votes won't make enough of a difference to let the Conservatives squeak by. Absent a Tory tidal wave sweeping urban Canada, colour this one red.
18/03/04 Alma
Email: [hidden]
I don't know why the editors call this riding "too close to call". BC is going to see a lot of tight races, but this won't be one of them. This largely affluent and highly-educated riding has never elected a Reformer to Ottawa. It did have a bit of a Red Tory tradition, but most Red Tories would be more comfortable with the Martin-led Liberals than in a Harper-led Conservative Party. The NDP and Greens will draw some support from the many professors and UBC students in the riding, and the addition of Kitsilano will add to NDP-Green support further.
Prediction: 50% LIB, 26% CPC, 18% NDP, 6% others (mostly Green)
17/03/04 Ghoris
Email: [hidden]
I predict Stephen Owen will hang on to this seat. His profile is much higher than it was in 2000 now that he is the incumbent and is in charge of a high-profile ministry, to boot. I don't get the sense that he has been personally tainted by the sponsorship scandal - in fact he seems to be scoring points for how he's handling it. The most important factor, however, is the boundary changes - Quadra picks up much more Liberal-friendly territory in Kitsilano from Vancouver Centre, while losing tony areas around Langara golf course to Vancouver South. Liberal hold.
17/03/04 MJ
Email: [hidden]
John Turner hand-picked and won this seat in the anti-Liberal backlash of 1984, so you know it's fairly safe for the Grits. Stephen Owen's been getting a lot of exercise standing and sitting in the House lately too. The scandal will hurt his numbers but I still think he'll pull off a win.
17/03/04 Objective Observer
Email: objectiveobserver2004@yahoo.ca
I think it may still be somewhat early to call this seat.Vancouver Quadra is the most affluent riding in the City of Vancouver. During the 1940's to the 1960's it was held by the PC's. From 1963 to 1972 and again from 1984 to date it has been held by the Liberals. During the last election the CA came in a relatively close second with the PC's a distant third. I suspect that the CPC vote will decline in the next election. Nevertheless, at the present time I would still place my bet on a Liberal victory.
16/03/04 Mike D
Email: mdavis@hfx.andara.com
This is the safest Liberal seat in BC, possibly the safest seat west of Wascana (Goodale). But the Conservatives are eyeing this seat with renewed interest as the Liberal scandals have damaged even Stephen Owen, the incumbent MP and former BC ombudsman. The NDP has never been a factor.

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