Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Vancouver Centre

Prediction Changed
2009-08-23 21:34:00

Constituency Profile


Carr, Adriane

Clarke, Jennifer

Clarke, John

Fry, Hedy

Hill, Michael

Huenefeld, Michael

McCrea, Travis

Shillington, Karen

Hon. Hedy Fry

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • vancouver-centre (207/275 Polls)
  • vancouver-east (16/191 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 05 01 J89
    I don't think you can or should compare national/provincial Green Party trends to this scenario, it is a local situation contained within the riding. I previously predicted a Liberal win with a strong Green finish. I'm expecting the race to be closer now, especially given the amazing strength of Carr's team. They have had volunteers drop something in every mailbox twice, they have volunteers all over the riding this weekend. I have received nothing from Hedy. The race could go either way.
    11 05 01 The Progressive Conservative
    Like Saanich-Gulf Islands, this is another incumbant I would like to see defeated, but I just don't see it happening. Fry will win here, yet again, but it will be closer than expected. On a broader note, Liberals may come 3rd in popular vote across the country, but will still be official opposition at the end of the day.
    11 05 01 Libvan
    It appears Green activists are resorting to Harper tactics in suggesting there is a poll that places Adriane Carr a ‘close second’ in Vancouver Centre. (See article in May issue of Common Ground) No such poll exists and Common Ground did not even bother to contact Hedy Fry’s campaign before publishing this story. The reason Green supporters have resorted to making things up is probably because, like last election, the best they could hope for is fourth place.
    11 05 01 WAC
    Everyone is talking about a ‘leaked Liberal poll’ which: 1. no one has published; 2. can't see the methodology used; 3. Contradicts the province and nation wide polling data that has the Greens down about 50% since last election. Sounds like more wishful Green think that anything else - I expect them to finish a very strong 4th behind the NDP, Conservatives with about 15-20%. Like last time. Liberal hold, but a closer race.
    11 04 30 Dave
    I hate to rain on the Liberal parade but nationly the party in a nose dive. Hedy Fry is not the most respected or well liked candidate.The Greens have a very good shot considering one Ekos polls shows Green 13.4% in British Columbia and the Liberals at 19.2% . Considering the Greens have no seats while the Liberals have 5 here , the 6% gap is not a lot espcialy in riding like Vancouver Centre. Its going to be a close race and the winner will win by 3% at most.
    11 04 29 A Drummond
    Just a gut feeling, but I think that Fry may get surprised this time. The Liberals are failing across the country and Fry can't be immune. Carr is well respected and may have a chance here.
    11 04 28 S.G.
    Fry has clearly has a strong local following (why, I don't know) through six elections that defies her party's varying national fortunes. She received her highest percentage of the popular vote in the 2006 election, even though her party went down to defeat that year. It's difficult to see any of the other parties defeating her, unless the ‘orange crush’ grows exponentially - unlikely in this riding. I can't see the Green takings this riding or any other, except perhaps Saanich-Gulf Islands.
    11 04 28 rsg
    i hate to rain on the Green party poster's parades, andrianne Carr will finish second here, as i mentioned before, this is not a Liberal riding any more, it's a Hedy Fry riding, the National trends will not have an impact here at all. I have lived in this riding a long time and as i said before they've all lined up and tried to take Hedy down and have all failed. It won't be any different this time.
    11 04 28 Mike S
    This could be a surprise for everyone, with the NDP's so-called surge (which is mainly happening in Quebec), a strong Green candidate and the Liberal incumbent splitting the left of centre vote. The support for the Conservatives has not dropped and I'm sure there are many voters who will vote Conservative because they are tired of being called out to vote every couple of years.
    11 04 28 Gigi
    While Elizabeth May has a real shot in Saanich-Gulf Islands, Adrianne Carr is far behind Hedy Fry in Van Centre. She carries a lot of personal baggage. She's known for playing fast and loose with the truth, going back to her days in the Western Canada Wilderness Committee. In person, she's a poor performer who never has her facts straight. She looked ridiculous up against Fry at all-candidates meetings. Fry has vanquished far bigger opponents than Carr, and all the polls are saying she'll hold this riding.
    11 04 28 Camrin
    I also think the Greens have a great shot of winning. Polls have shown green are aroun 4-8 % which isnt bad considering the media not giving the greens much attention. The support in B.C has rising, because of the strong campaign by May in the Saanich Gulf Islands. Liberals are losing support across the country and in B.C. Where the NDP candidates are strong like in Vancouver Centre the Liberal vote will go to the Greens.Vancouver Centre is a toss-up , who knows what will happen if the Liberals go under 20% in the polls which I would never of guessed could happen but their in a nose dive.
    11 04 27 Pauly D
    I really wouldn't have even considered that this was a possibility but I really think Adriane Carr might pull it off. The Liberals are hurting right now and will likely only get a mid-teens finish in B.C. I can also see NDP supporters shifting to the Greens if they see the Greens have a shot here. I also think the presence of Elizabeth May in B.C has helped Greens here significantly. I think it'll be close, but I think Adriane has it.
    11 04 27 AR
    Liberal support is waning in BC. Out of all the ‘star’ candidates Hedy Fry has faced over the years, no one ever bothered to stay and challenge her again. This is probably the reason the Conservatives wanted Rachel Greenfeld to run here twice. However, Carr's ability to win will still depend on the youth vote, a demographic that is not guaranteed to show up on election day. The other factor is the NDP surge sweeping the country - Karen Shillington could come up the middle. Only 12% of voters base their choice on candidate strenght. Compare that to 20% for party leader and 60% on party policy. The second factor is strategic voting. Conservative supporters may vote for Carr to knock out Fry: http://www.commonground.ca/iss/238/cg238_Fry.shtml
    This riding is TCTC but I think it's leaning Green.
    Fun Fact: People under 40 make up 50% of the electorate in Vancouver Centre.
    11 04 27 Andrew M.
    I'm surprised that I'm saying this, but I think the Greens are going to pull out the victory here. While much of the national focus has been on Elizabeth May's campaign in Saanich-Gulf Islands, Carr is a very strong candidate, and the Greens are really campaigning hard here. The Liberal candidate here is not particularly well-liked, and I believe many disgruntled Liberal voters will consider switching to Carr. At the very least, this riding should be too close to call; it will definitely be close, but I'm calling Green on this one.
    11 04 28
    @Seth: Internal polling is highly questionable and often skewed towards the party one is representing. If Carr's polling is 32% to Fry's 30%, then Fry would probably win. Why? Because a large faction of Green Party support is from protest votes, and these voters are less likely to come out on Election Day. In general, I do sense a hunger for change in this riding, but internal polling is not particularly accurate.
    11 04 27
    This is a Hedy Fry hold. I don't see the Green Party even in the running. Their vote is down 40% and as much as I hate to say, the environment just isn't a big issue this election. It was the last time around after Dion was fried for suggesting a carbon tax, nobody will touch the issue.
    11 04 26 Seth
    After today, I'm switching my prediction to Carr. An internal Liberal poll was leaked over the weekend, that has Carr and Fry neck-and-neck in the 30s, and the Tory and NDP candidates trailing way back in the teens. Ignatieff was also in the riding yesterday - a strong indication that the Liberal machine is feeling the heat from Carr. Carr is tapping that most sought after demographic - the under-30 set that normally doesn't vote. Election night tally: Grn 32%, Lib 30%, Cons and NDP 19% each.
    11 04 26 Kathy
    I think the Greens have a good chance here. The NDP has a week candidate and the Conservatives are likely to even gain in this riding. The greens are the strategic vote here againts the Liberals.
    11 04 26 J89
    It is highly unlikely that the Conservatives will win here, sure Hedy Fry is a polarizing figure but you have to take into account her popularity in the community and her 5 consecutive wins. Also, even if Green support is down in BC, it is not taking into account the local strength of the campaign and quality of the candidate. A lot of people who have voted for Hedy this time are voting Green. I suspect Carr will finish a strong second to Fry.
    11 04 25 Marco Ricci
    Green vote appears to be down in B.C., so they may perform less well than in 2008. That doesn't bode well for Adrianne Carr in Vancouver Centre or Elizabeth May in Saanich-Gulf Islands:
    ‘The most bleeding has come from the Green Party, which has plummeted from a respectable 9.4 per cent in 2008, to six per cent now.’
    11 04 26 JM
    The Conservative vote has been recovering every year since 2004 and can return to 30%+ levels not seen since 1993 (43% combined Reform/PC). Not many ‘safe’ Liberal seats any more, especially with Fry being such a polarizing figure, the NDP/Green vote will still be in play. Coalition and constitutional questions raised by NDP resonating with large segment of grey vote who will turn out to vote. Could also swing NDP depending on Green vote, or Fry's self-preservation instincts: crossing floor if NDP official opposition.
    11 04 24 59
    Anyone who calls this as ‘solid’ for Hedy better think again. Winning one-third of the vote as a 15 year incumbent is more of an embarrassment than anything. The trends are clear, with a weak NDP and Tory campaign, look for the Greens to capitalize on the ‘Anti-Hedy’ vote, as they have been doing by being the only campaign to compete with the Liberals on the ground.
    11 04 23 From the Left Coast
    This is a left leaning riding, but fortunately for the Liberal, they have Hedy Fry who can be quite a left-leaning firebrand of her own. The other party will just split the vote like the last time. So LIB-hold.
    11 04 23 Seth
    No need for strategic voting here. Conservatives are a nullity here. Even with star candidate Lorne Mayencourt last time, the Tories only got 25%. Now with Jennifer Clarke, the Tories will be back down to their usual 20%. The NDP's candidate is not much more impressive. Word has it that Hedy Fry is more worried about Adriane Carr than anyone else. Carr tends to mop the floor at all candidates' debates, and Carr has been very effective in mobilizing the youth vote through social media, which doesn't show up in the polls (remember the Calgary mayoral race?) It's all Hedy vs Adriane this time.
    11 04 21 Austin Gatensbury
    This is the kind of seat with a lot of strategic voting, especially against the Conserveratives. If NDP remains stronger than the Liberals nationally, you will see this riding come into play.
    11 04 18 rsg
    To the last poster, with all due respect, i lived in this riding a long time, trust me , they've all lined up and tried to take Hurricane Hedy down and have all failed miserably, i don't have to re produce all the opposition politicos of the past, but let's just say this will be a slam dunk once again, i'll even predict Ms Fry will increase her winning percentage.
    11 04 16 AR
    I'm not so sure that Fry is a lock. The conservatives are completely out of play in this riding considering their last minute selection of Jennifer Clarke who`s been somewhat mute so far. In the last election, Fry was the benefactor of strategic voting. An unlikely factor this time around. Karen Shillington is a covering a wide range of important issues like poverty and homelessness while Adriane Carr will become the only candidate to have ever challenged Fry on more than one occasion. She may have built up support here. Hedy Fry is still favoured as long as Liberal support stays in the 25% range in BC. Still, expect Fry to win with her narrowest margin of victory yet (if she wins.)
    11 04 16 Marco Ricci
    This riding is kind of boring this year! Normally in the past all the major parties have run high-profile candidates and Vancouver Centre has been one of the most-watched races in British Columbia. This year the NDP are running an unknown candidate who started late, and the Conservatives are running a replacement candidate who also started late after the previous one quit. The Conservative candidate has some name recognition from her previous career in politics, but that was several years back. After Fry, the best-known candidate may be the Green candidate, Adrienne Carr who ran last time, and is Deputy Green Leader. Unless we get any information to the contrary, this could be Hedy Fry's easiest race so far.
    11 04 14 keefr
    Though it's considered a ‘battleground’ for some of the media and commentators, I have no idea why anymore.
    Fry is completely unbeatable here even though she may not win by landslides. This will most assuredly be the case again. Easy prediction.
    11 03 30 M. Lunn
    Not really a Liberal riding, but they will win by default. The high end condos in Yaletown and Coal Harbour kill the NDP's chance at winning here while the large Gay community in the West End kills the Tories chance at winning here. By contrast the Liberals have 33-40% throughout the riding and don't get in the single digits in some sections as the other two parties do. For those pointing to Kim Campbell's win in the 1988 election, the riding boundaries were much different as this extended all the way out to UBC and included the affluent neighbourhood of Point Grey which is now in Vancouver-Quadra.
    11 03 29 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    Fry has defeated the best that all 3 other parties can throw at her time and time again since 1993. Perhaps when she retires we can talk, until then this is a Liberal lock.
    11 03 29 Marco Ricci
    The Conservatives have now selected their candidate - it will be former three-term city councillor Jennifer Clarke.
    Clarke will probably have greater name recognition than Greenfeld, but her very late entry into the race makes it difficult for her to win.
    11 03 28 John
    This one will stay Liberal.
    In addition to comments made by other posters, the major cities--Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal--tend to be Liberal strongholds. Fry is a multi term incumbent as well.
    It's her race to lose, and I think she will keep the seat.
    11 03 27 Marco Ricci
    This riding may get less attention this time around unless the Conservatives come forward with a high-profile candidate. There have been rumours about Trevor Linden, but nothing has happened yet. Meanwhile the NDP won't be nominating their candidate until the end of the week and it's expected to be a little known former Green candidate.
    Looks like the NDP and the Conservatives may be waiting until Hedy Fry retires before running a strong campaign in this riding. Hedy may be able to rest easier this year compared to 2008.
    11 03 26 Political Junkie
    The absolute wackiest riding in the country. If Dr. Hedy Fry can win despite that voice and some of the ridiculous comments she has made in the past, it will be no problem for her now. Thankfully she will be relegated to the backbenches and we will only after listen to her brainless drivel on very rare occasions.
    11 03 16 Marco Ricci
    Conservative candidate Rachel Greenfeld has resigned.
    This doesn't bode well for the Conservative campaign's attempt to win this riding from Hedy Fry since they need to find a new candidate at late notice. Unless the Liberal vote collapses in Vancouver in the next election, I think Hedy will be re-elected. What will be interesting is whether the NDP or the Conservatives finish 2nd.
    09 10 11 Phoenix
    Vancouver probably has more competitive seats within its city limits than any other major city in Canada. This is not one of them. Polling over the past few months has shown the Liberals at wildly varying levels of support in BC, from narrowly in the lead to (more recently)sub-Dion levels; no matter. Even in a competitive 4-way race last time, Fry did just fine. Given the consensus that her opponents this time around are generally weaker than those she faced last time, Fry should have little problem holding this seat.
    09 10 07
    The conservative candidate is weaker this time as is the NDP candidate. look for fry to break 40% of the vote again. liberal hold.
    09 09 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    We totally agree with Stevo. Every electionprediction-go-round people (including ourselves) are convinced Hedy will fall...and she never does. She's put up one helluva good fight over the years and we have no reason to believe that she'll fall...at least not for now, we reserve our right to change our prediction as an election draws nearer...
    09 09 11 Stevo
    Another Joe Volpe-like Liberal who keeps winning. Hedy Fry, of imaginary-cross-burnings fame, withstands everything and both Conservatives and NDPers have come to accept that they're stuck with her shrill intolerantly-politically-correct voice until she decides to return to her more worthwhile former occupation as a physician.
    09 09 09 Marco Ricci
    I don't think it has been officially confirmed yet, but it looks like Liberal MP Hedy Fry may be running here one more time. As long as she continues to run, it is likely she will continue to win. Despite the Liberal vote dropping in B.C. last year, she was able to hold onto this seat even though her vote share dropped. She was also able to beat 3 high-profile candidates from the other parties- the NDP, the Greens, and the Conservatives.
    09 09 07 Seth
    There are three things that keep this riding voting Liberal: Hedy Fry, Hedy Fry, and Hedy Fry. She unseated a sitting PM in 1993 and has been undefeated since. This seat is Fry's for as long as she wants it. After she announces her retirement we can talk about who else might take it. Until then, this is the safest Liberal seat in BC.
    09 08 31 MF
    I'm not sure if Hedy Fry really wins based on her own personality (an appeal I don't really get) or more because it is a Liberal riding demographically. Either way, Michael Byers was probably the biggest under-performer (with the NDP apparently bleeding to Adrienne Carr of the Greens) for any NDP candidate nationally and Lorne Mayencourt did about as well as possible for a Conservative in downtown Vancouver. I expect Hedy Fry to be elected again.
    09 08 24 MJA
    People have been predicting Hedy Fry's imminent demise at every election since 1993. This would always be her final election. There was no way she could beat Kim Campbell, or Svend Robinson, or Lorne Mayencourt... but she always does. The last time around wasn't even her tightest race, and with Liberal fortunes rebounding nationwide, this time around won't be her last.
    09 08 23
    Potentially a 4-way race! Still, even after Liberal Hedy Fry ran against strong and high-profile challengers from the Conservatives, NDP, and Green Party, she emerged the victor with a healthy margin. Despite losing almost 10% of the vote count, and despite her margin of victory being reduced from 11 000 in 2006 to 5000 in 2008, I cannot see this riding going anything other than Liberal (unless Hedy Fry retires).
    11 04 28 BCBOY
    I see this going Liberal again. The candidates up against Fry are weak at best and the electorate know that Fry has delivered for riding specific causes. I doubt they want a quiet voice, as eccentric as Fry is, to replace a loud voice for their important riding. This is one of those ridings where the Candidate votes outweighs the Party. Fry could run as an Independant and still win. Carr has not built a following or presence yet in the riding, but I suspect a few more years of living here will help her with that stigma.

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