Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Vancouver Kingsway

Prediction Changed
2011-04-28 09:25:00

Constituency Profile


Boutin, Louise

Cariou, Kimball

Davies, Don

Kadioglu, Matt

Nguyen, Trang

Petersen, Donna

Yuan, Wendy

Don Davies

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • vancouver-east (3/191 Polls)
  • vancouver-kingsway (165/190 Polls)
  • vancouver-quadra (18/232 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 28 Strategic Voter
    I'd be tempted to call this one NDP as well, since Don Davies is working the hardest out of all the candidates. However, given the fact that the Conservative candidate is so awful, resorts to personal attacks and scowls at the crowd, that it'd be better if she DID skip out on debates, I think that a lot of conservative voters may go to the Liberals this time making the race much tighter. Either that, or they just may stay home on Election Day, since the Tory in this riding is nuts! I think Don will squeeze by, but it's going to be a much smaller margin than in 2008.
    11 04 27 J.Mc.
    @ The Communist vote? Seriously? The only party the ‘old’ communists and the M-L's hate more than each other is the NDP, who they view as ‘reformists.’ Left-wing Democratic Socialists who form the base of the NDP hate the Communists for giving Socialism a bad name. Centre-left urban swing voters choose between NDP and Liberal; ‘populist’ working-class types choose between NDP and Tory; and big-business types choose between Liberal and Tory. The Communists don't come into the mix ANYWHERE, and I highly doubt the Commies are taking votes from the NDP or vice-versa. Besides, their day in the sun ended when their only MP turned out to be a Russian spy...
    My prediction - too close to call between Liberal and NDP.
    11 04 27
    I wouldn't be so quick to call this one for the Conservatives. That's especially so in light of the NDP upswing in BC and Quebec in particular. This riding swings between the NDP and the Conservatives. This is a marginal riding for the Conservatives, the Liberals are perpetually weak (less possibility of a vote split here0 and so current trends favour the New Democrat candidate.
    11 04 26
    With the two communist candidates running they are going to split the communist vote, so I will have to call this for the Liberals instead. Driving through this riding, I feel that they have the most ground support.
    11 04 23 From the Left Coast
    If you look at the past 3 election, the NDP block of vote stay relatively the same; it was the LIBs that took a nose dive, while the Tory moved up. If this seat is going to flip it will be to the Tory. But for the mean time, NDP hold.
    11 04 23 Teddy Boragina
    The NDP's position in BC polls has firmed up in the past few days. They are now quite a distance ahead of the Liberals, and are slowly moving in on the Tories.
    11 04 18 Michael Watkins
    This riding remains NDP with the incumbent, Don Davies, re-securing a mandate from constituents. Within the small business community represented in the riding, particularly along the Kingsway corridor, there appears to be a high degree of dislike for the provincial HST, which many assign some blame to the federal government for. While not all business owners are electors in the district, a great many of their clientele are. This theme is one I've detected in other ridings within Vancouver proper as well.
    I'm a Vancouver Kingsway resident myself and have noted more support in my poll for the NDP than during the last election (poll results show my neighbourhood was one of the few pockets of Conservative support in 2008).
    11 04 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Liberals up in BC, Cons down in BC, NDP unchanged in BC. That would suggest the Liberals will retake this riding. The Emerson afterglow is gone, but new support amongst the Chinese community should result in CPC support holding above '06 numbers yet below '08 numbers. NDP support will stay steady and Liberals will probably benefit from all this. Liberal retake at the moment.
    11 04 16 BJ
    Mustel just released a large sample BC poll (which is also exactly in line with BC's Innovative Research numbers):
    CPC - 42% (-2% from 2008 or down 5% overall)
    Liberal - 25% (+6% from 2008 or up 32% overall)
    NDP - 24% (-2% from 2008 or down 8% overall)
    Green - 9%
    Mustel also states that the Liberals are ‘strongest in the City of Vancouver’. With the Liberals up 6% from 2006 and it's overall vote up 32% in BC and the NDP down 8% overall, the Liberals are likely to regain Vancouver Kingsway, a seat that they held since 1993.
    2008 also was an anomaly in BC for the Liberals with the ‘Green Shift’ and the lacklustre Stephane Dion causing their BC numbers to crash to 19% from their 26% avg. since 1993. Looks like the Liberal vote in BC has rebounded and they will clearly benefit in V-K.
    11 04 14 keefr
    Lawn signs, though not always a good indicator, are heavily weighted to the incumbent NDP MP here.
    The Conservatives will be an absolute non-factor here, as they aren't close to breaking through in any part of East Van, north of 41st.
    NDP by 2,000.
    11 04 10 burlivespipe
    Incumbents have an advantage, but for the past three years Yuan has been campaigning tirelessly like an incumbent. The collapse of the Liberal vote last election was mostly linked to the perceived weaknesses of their leader and not the local candidate. Yuan has made inroads beyond the large Chinese-Canadian community, and I just don't see the CONs holding their support, falling back to 15-18 percent overall. It should result in a 1,500 vote win for Yuan.
    11 04 05
    If you look at the 2008 results, the NDP only won because a large chunk of Liberal supporters went Conservative, giving the CPC one of their best showings in this riding. With their breakthrough in the crucial Chinese, Vietnamese, and Filipino communities, Trang Nguyen may well come out on top. I'd say the ceiling is 35-40%, but given the tight three-way race, that would be enough to come out on top. Plus, Nguyen is a decent candidate and MP Don Davies has generally been a low-profile incumbent. Liberal Wendy Yuan is running again, but if she lost 5,000 votes in 2008, I don't think she will regain them back, considering the Liberals' mediocre showing in the polls right now.
    11 04 05 M. Lunn
    Traditionally a left leaning riding but with a large immigrant community, not as much as it once was. This group voted heavily Liberal in the past thus why they won here, but the Tories have made recent gains amongst them. Not enough to win the riding but enough to allow the NDP to take it. The NDP has consistently gotten between 33-37% so its more a matter of whether some of the Liberal voters who went Tory last time around will return to the Liberals allowing them to win this or will the Tories continue to pick up amongst the ethnic community thus taking votes away from the Liberals and allowing the NDP to win this.
    11 04 04 Nick Ng
    I was going through Vancouver Kingsway yesterday and Don Davies won the sign war hand-down. If the election is decided at the local level, then no doubt Don would be the winner, but statistically only about 5% of the votes is due to the local candidate. In 2008 he should have got a lot more votes from the Liberal but didn't. The liberal voters either stayed home or switched to the CPC. I am reluctantly giving this riding to the Conservatives because their polling numbers in BC keeps going up and they have a much stronger candidate this time.
    11 04 03 Seth
    It will be a tough 3-way race. The Tories are running the highest profile candidate they have run here in a long time. I will give the incumbency advantage to Davies but it will be a tough slog for him. NDP 33%, Cons 32%, Lib 30%, Green 5%. This is definitely one to watch.
    10 01 30 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    As others have said, the NDP can't seem to break 16K votes...nor do they seem to drop below 15K votes. Very solid voting block for them...yet can't get any new support. Be interesting to see how incumbency plays out for them. The Liberals lost this only because about 6900 of the former supporters went CPC or Green (with about 1500 staying home). The sit at home voters would be enough for them to recapture it. With CPC numbers dwindling, Don Davies really has to be careful. Most likely the CPC voters will migrate back to the grits. That is unless he can come of as a populist and swing votes. Could be done, have noticed him very much in the media, that usually plays well. The CPC, at the moment, have no chance here. That could very well change if they poll like they were back in October. With them neck and neck with the Liberals they will be playing defence. Couple that with a potential HST backlash...might not be good for them...All in all an interesting race.
    09 10 31 R.O.
    I think the ndp has the advantage here and i would expect them to hold the seat now that Don Davies is mp and there is no longer a big name liberal candidate like David Emerson. although i noticed when looking thru some results the ndp vote has not really changed here since 04 and consistently been around 15,000. what allowed for them to win was the liberal vote went down and the conservative vote went up . but the riding likely remains out of reach for the conservatives unless they were to find a really good candidate for this riding. and i don't see Wendy Yuan winning it as when it was vacant last election she got one of the lowest liberal vote totals in recent years for this riding. so it will likely stay ndp unless something surprising happens here.
    09 10 07
    remember the cpc was only back roughly 3500 votes here last time. If the conservatives are in the low 40's nationally on election day this turns blue. to say this riding wont go blue because it wasn't during the Mulroney years patently stupid. Kenora anyone???
    09 09 13 PY
    I reiterate last year's prediction with regards to Wendy Yuan. There will be no excuse for those who managed to stay home last election and having lost by almost 3000, I wonder whether Don Davies's support can really be considered that firm. Layton's reluctance to bring down the Harper government won't help matters much, either.
    As well, Harper's probably lost much in the way of goodwill from the Chinese community over his handling of our relationship with China; even though there's an increased effort to repair it now, I doubt it'll be enough to win Chinese voters over. Now, of course, I'm not saying that they'll blindly vote for one of their own (Yuan), but if general anti-Harper sentiment becomes more focused during the upcoming campaign, the Tories can say goodbye to the very possibility of pulling off an upset or a second-place finish here.
    David Emerson's original appointment as the Liberal candidate notwithstanding, Wendy Yuan's been nominated three times and as it's also a lucky number in Chinese numerology, election day could be her lucky day this time around.
    09 09 02 Jon.
    No way this is a 3-way race! The Conservatives have never held this riding, except when David Emerson left the Liberals for a cabinet seat. Too many people got burned on that to vote Liberal again last time (that's the main reason their vote dropped, along with the Green Shift and Dion's poor leadership) and the Tories are a distant third. Davies should be safe, barring a massive nationwide swing to the Liberals.
    09 08 23
    Too close to call: this is a 3-way race. Interestingly, in 2008 NDP Don Davis won, even though the NDP vote count was almost exactly the same as in 2006. Why the NDP won was because a massive chunk of Liberal votes (over 14%) were reallocated to the other parties, mainly the third place Conservative candidate. This allowed the NDP to slip through to victory. This riding is leaning NDP again, but to be honest, any of the three parties could win. There is ~3500 votes separating the NDP imcumbent from the Liberals and Conservatives -- a resonable margin, but still vulnerable to defeat. If there is a Liberal comeback in the region or a Conservative surge, this seat is vulnerable.

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