Prediction Changed
3:48 PM 07/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Vancouver South
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Boylan, Charles
New Democratic
Chambers, Ann
Dosanjh, Ujjal
Gulyas, Csaba
Young, Wai

Hon. Ujjal Dosanjh

2006 Result:
Ujjal Dosanjh **
Tarlok Sablok
Bev Meslo
Doug Perry
Charles Boylan

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 14
So I guess I was right. Nobody believed me when I said this riding would be very close... Ujjal Dosanjh almost tasted defeat, retaking the riding by about 1-2%. What is interesting here is the massive swing in Chinese support from the Liberals to Conservatives. We saw this massive effect take place in Richmond; now we're seeing the same thing in Vancouver South, Vancouver Kingsway, and Vancouver Quadra. Vancouver SOUTH, however, will be the main riding to watch next time. If Wai Young runs again, there is high probability of her retaking it, especially if Ujjal retires. Plus, Dosanjh's angry rant on local TV about Jack Layton and the NDP definitely did not help him.
08 10 03 gorman
The Conservative candidate Wai Young had it just revealed in the Vancouver Province newspaper that she may be in a conflict of interest by accepting or being granted government contracts as recently as last month. All that being said this won't even be close it will be Dosanjh returned easily.
08 09 27
The sisters are obviously different people with different resumes and personalities, so you cannot judge one and assume the same for the other. Weak in the Chinese community? Hardly. Wai Young has worked with Lilian To of S.U.C.C.E.S.S. That alone is something highly regarded on the Chinese community.
To the previous poster said that she was ‘not clued in’ -- have you actually met Wai Young? I don't think it is a fair assessment. I have personally chatted with her and found her to be a very informed and articulate candidate. Watch her debate Dosanjh.
Dosanjh probably has the 10% Indo-Canadian vote more or less locked up. But mind you, 45% of the population here in Chinese. A recent Ming Pao online poll showed the Conservatives with a 14% lead over the Liberals within the Chinese community. Even though it is an online poll, it does hint at the support the CPC has within the Chinese community and shows which party has the momentum. Add to the fact that the Liberal support in BC has virtually collapsed, I insist that this riding is TCTC for now.
08 09 24 chinoise canadienne
Wai Young may have an impressive resume... but Harper should have done his background on Wai Young. Those that know her and her sister, Wai Sin, know that they're very weak in the Chinese Canadian community.
Just wait until you hear her speak on issues...not too clued in. Wai is hoping to cash in on her Chinese. She even has a picture a dead Hong Kong TV Star ( at the funeral) in her election material!
Although Ujjal is a stinker, they'd pick Ujjal over Wai.
08 09 23
The Green Party's candidate for Vancouver South is now Csaba Gulyas. The perception of the Liberals being under siege nationally will probably help Ujjal hold onto this riding as anti-Harpites give up on splitting the vote here.
08 09 21 s
ujjal is too well known and has the support of the large indo canadian population and the other visible minorities.
08 09 20
With the Conservatives polling strongly in BC and making inroads into the urban vote, I'd be more cautious to call this Liberal than some. The ethnic support base for the Liberals is all but melting, and relocating to the Conservatives and the NDP. With 40% of this riding Chinese, there is strong potential for Wai Young to pick up gains. Wai Young herself has a very respectable resume. I don't doubt Dosanjh's organization and name recognition in this riding. This will be a high watermark for the Conservatives. But for the sake of being cautious -- TCTC.
08 09 11 Bernard von Schulmann
IF the NDP were running someone other than Bev Meslo, I would think they had a decent chance at the riding. As it stands, I see this as a race between the Liberals and Conservatives.
Dosanjh is not popular among the NDP and I am sure they party would love to see him lose. Still I do not think Bev Meslo can win, so I suspect the most likely winner will be Wai Young of the Conservatives. The riding is also very strongly Chinese.
SUB-Date 08 09 11
08 03 22
Contrary to AS's wishful thinking, I don't understand why ‘things are gonna get easier’ for Ujjal Dosanjh in Vancouver South. Look - there's little doubt that Dosanjh would lose this riding: he's much too well recognized and high profile for the electorate to vote him out. Still, I think that with a reasonable Chinese Conservative candidate Wai Young and with the Conservatives recent surge in neighbour Vancouver Quadra, I think Young will make decent gains here at the expense of Dosanjh. The Liberals are really heading to difficult times due to lack of organization and Dion's leadership is not connecting much with Canadians. In Vancouver South we'll see how well the CPC's ethnic outreach initiatives play out, though it may not be the best litmus test as Dosanjh is too much of a star candidate.
I do believe that if Dosanjh ever resigns from this seat, it will be more vulnerable for the Liberals. Some of his support comes from ‘Dosanjh votes’ not Liberal votes. Also, this riding as well as Quadra are the ridings the CPC has somewhat decent a chance at winning in Metro-Vancouver. It was held by the PC until 1993, and in the subsequent elections after the Liberals won the seat, the Reform/Canadian Alliance has has respectable showings in this riding area, especially in 2000 where the CA candidate lost the riding by just 6% to Herb Dhaliwal (Vancouver South - Burnaby).
08 02 12 A.S.
U-u-jjal, things are gonna get easier for the Liberals here--the Vancouver equivalent of a Scarborough seat--than perhaps in any other seat in BC. Now, for Bob Rae to join his ex-NDP-premier colleague in Parliament. At least Glen Clark doesn't feel the need to jump ship likewise...
07 05 10 British Columbian
Ujjal improved his margin here last time, and leading the Conservatives by over 9,000 votes. That is simply too much ground for the Tories to pick up considering they won the last election. Although Ujjal may win by a slightly reduced margin this time, he won't lose Vancouver South
07 03 28 M. Lunn
What was once a safe conservative seat is now a very safe Liberal seat federally. Ujjal Dosanjh will win his riding easily even if the Liberals lose seats in BC. Interestingly enough he is a former NDP, while provincially and municipally this area tends to go for centre-right parties, however most centre-right voters tend to be quite moderate, similiar to the former Progressive Conservatives, as opposed to the current Conservatives, so I don't see them regaining this anytime soon. Never mind provincially you also have a left-right polarization, whereas federally you don't have that but instead have one left wing (NDP) one centrist (Liberal) and one right wing (Conservative).

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