10 05 03	96.49.102.215
binriso, how do you know the Conservatives won't be 25+ points ahead of the Liberals again? First, Michael Ignatieff's approval ratings are at ‘Dion’-level, hovering in the mid-teens. Also, a recent Angus Reid poll shows that Conservative have 51% support in BC, compared to 30% for the NDP and 14% for the Liberals. While this number may not hold on election day, it demonstrates the potential of support the Conservatives have in BC and it shows just how much stronger the Conservatives are in BC when compared to the Liberals. Furthermore, there are local factors that play into this riding that your analysis does not take into account. While Ujjal Dosanjh has appeared often in the media, he is not particularly well-liked and seen as opportunistic. On the other hand, I believe one reason why Wai Young came so close in 2008 is because she grew up in the riding, was seen as a more ‘grassrootsy’ local candidate, and had a lot of sociological, policy-making, and community leadership experience that appealed to some voters in this riding. She has received decent coverage in the Chinese media. Also, her party's ‘strong’ stance on crime appeals to voters in this riding due to an outbreak of crime and gangs in this riding.
	10 03 09	binriso 156.34.210.156
Thing is that last time the CPC were more than +25 over the Liberals province wide (almost +20 over the NDP). This will not happen again and in this case the Liberals will keep the seat.
	09 09 12	24.85.230.16
As a Vancouverite, my prediction is based on what I know locally. This will be a close race, and there are some important factors that contribute to my prediction. 1) Wai Young has roots in the riding, where she attended high school and has lived here most of her life. She knows the area well locally and is very grassroots. The key issues of voters in Vancouver South are crime (gang violence!) and the economy. Unfortunately for Dosanjh, the Conservatives are strong on both issues. The fact that the Liberal-dominated senate is stalling the House of Commons? crime bills won?t sit well with voters here either. Young, on the other hand, has experience with crime prevention and immigration programs and policy, which is a good fit for this riding. 2) Ex-Premier Ujjal Dosanjh has strong name recognition but he?s not actually particularly popular or well-liked. I think there is a hunger for change of representative in this riding. Many see him as opportunistic, sly, and resourceful. His furious rant blaming the voters (especially those who voted NDP) on election night 2008 came off as disrespectful and turned off a lot of people. 3) Expect Wai Young to run a very sharp and focused campaign boosted by support from her party. Unlike what MJL said, this was not a target seat for the Conservatives. From my knowledge, they put no party funding here in 2008. Next election, Wai Young is going to get resources from party central, Harper will likely visit this riding next election, and the Conservatives will target this riding with full force. Of course Dosanjh?s giant campaign team will mount a strong campaign to defend the seat. However? in 2008, Young ran a campaign with a small team and humble funds but she still came 21 votes from winning the riding. It was truly a David vs. Goliath type battle. With abundant resources in this riding in the next election, Wai Young will be much more experienced and will run a top-notch campaign. 4) The Conservatives have closed the gap with the Liberals among the minority and immigrant vote. Wai Young won a significant chunk of the minority vote in 2008. She appeals not only to the Chinese, but other immigrant communities as well due to her experience with immigration programs and policy and S.U.C.C.E.S.S. With the Conservatives in power for 4 years, ethnic voters are much more comfortable and inclined to vote Conservative. The Conservatives will continue to gain ground in this demographic due to ideological similarities. Furthermore, Wai Young is getting important exposure in the Chinese community such as the Chinese media (like Fairchild TV). 5) Foreign policy towards China is important in this riding because of the large Chinese population. Since the last election, the Conservatives have warmed up the ties by sending high profile cabinet ministers like Jim Flaherty and Stockwell Day to China to work out the relationship between the two countries and important issues like trade. Harper will follow suit this fall. This will make it much more comfortable for Chinese voters to vote Conservative. 6) This riding has significant centre-right elements. The Oakridge, Marpole, and Kensington communities have centre-right bases as shown in the provincial election. Therefore, I predict that Wai Young will win. Whether by 3 votes or by 3000, that remains to be determined.
	09 09 10	MJL 99.50.226.23
Interesting analysis of Vancouver-wide trends, but I am afraid the story the author is telling doesn't hold water. The swing against the Liberals was roughly similar to their province-wide drop - Dion was not liked in British Columbia. Michael Ignatieff polls much better in Vancouver. Secondly, it is not clear to me that Tory support spiked in ?urban core? ridings. In Ontario they gained the most in suburban 905 ridings. The party made large gains in only two ridings, where considerable resources were placed. Vancouver South became competitive because the Tories made a run for it. They will try again in 2008, but they are not as competitive as they were back then. Harper is an incumbent with a recession and Ignatieff is not Dion. Liberal hold.
	09 09 02	JJ 96.49.104.25
I thought these statistics might interests many of you, and directly relates to Vancouver South. Using Excel, I broke-down the vote percentages each party received in the last three elections in the five core, urban Vancouver ridings. 2004 -- A battle between Liberals and NDP LPC: 40% (96,698 votes) NDP: 32% (74,804 votes) CPC: 20% (46,403 votes) GRN: 5% (12,049 votes) OTH: 2% (3,611 votes) 2006 -- Liberals surge in Vancouver LPC: 43% (104,258 votes) NDP: 32% (74,297 votes) CPC: 22% (54,694 votes) GRN: 5% (11,597 votes) OTH: 1% (2,300 votes) 2008 -- Liberal and NDP support melt, Conservatives and Green surge ahead LPC: 33% (81,210 votes) CPC: 29% (69,718 votes) NDP: 27% (62,351 votes) GRN: 10% (25,036 votes) OTH: 1% (2,322 votes) This is clear proof that the Conservatives have become competitive in core urban ridings like Vancouver South. In 2008, as you can see, Conservative support surged ahead of the NDP, which is quite surprising consider the Conservatives won 0 of the 5 Vancouver seats, whereas the NDP picked up 2. This makes Vancouver South and the other Vancouver ridings (except NDP-strong Vancouver East) very competitive races.
	09 09 02	pollwerker 64.228.222.170
Dosanj squeeked by last time with the Conservatives leading the Liberals by 25 points in BC. That margin has been cut to 8 points. The Liberals have more money to advertise than they did in '08. Also the Conservative advantage in targetting ridings is reduced as they will be playing defense in much of the country. Also tricks to move money to target specific ridings are no longer going to be tolerated.
	09 08 31	MF 70.52.182.217
I think the Tories just missed their chance of taking Vancouver South. The Liberals were at a mere 19% in BC last time and the Tories were at a very high 44% and have almost certainly maxed out. I expect Ujjal to be re-elected.
	09 08 30	wyatt 24.235.142.160
This is one the Tories will steal away. After running a first time candidate here in '08 and losing by only 20 votes, they'll be sure to devote the right resources here. This was a PC seat between '72 and '93, so it is definitely a riding that has a strong Tory foundation on which the CPC can build.
	09 08 29	B.O. 142.176.71.130
Certainly a 20 vote margin makes this riding too close to call. But to suggest a simple visit by Harper would swing this riding to the Conservatives makes the assumption that the Liberals would do as poorly in the next election as they did in the last. Current polls do not show this. Obviously polls can change. But to me it doesn't seem likely the Liberals will do as poorly next time as they did last time. Last time the Liberals lost many, many votes in B.C. and dropped to below 20% of the B.C. vote. That would likely have to happen again for this seat to go Tory. I know that federal polls in B.C. always seem to change from what they were pre-election to what the actual results are on election day but many current B.C. polls show the Liberals having improved their vote share from the 2008 election in B.C. and the Conservatives having dropped several percentage points from the 2008 election in B.C. It is possible this riding could go Conservative but it would take quite a poor Liberal showing for it to have any strong likelihood of occurring. Of course all these calculations could change if Dosanjh doesn't run again. Then it could be quite a bit easier than before for the Tories to pick the seat up. But if he does run again he retains incumbent advantage as 20 votes was still enough to retain status as the incumbent MP. But before we can have any clear idea how this riding will go in the next election, we'll need to have a clearer idea how the next election will shape up nationally.
	09 08 27	24.207.46.228
Most in the federal conservatives were shocked at how close this riding was last time. now that they know its available look for harper to make an early visit here to lock it up ala his richmond visit last election. wai young also has cabinet potential, something alice wong does not posses.
	09 08 26	Observer 89.180.187.185
It is true that the majority of this riding are chinese voters but why do you think they will vote for the Conservatives? This inner Vancouver constituency like other big metropolitan cities just don't vote conservatives. Do you know any Conservative MP in the core of Vancouver, Toronto or Montreal? Minorities in this cities are progressive, they don't like right-wing politics.
	09 08 26	JJ 96.49.110.185
Observer, Vancouver South is approximately 45% Chinese and 10% South Asian. The overwhelming minority group in this riding is the Chinese -- this is the main community any candidate needs to reach out to in order to win. The Conservatives did in fact run a South Asian candidate (Tarlok Sablok) in the 2006 election, but he lost to Dosanjh by ~9000 vote margin. In 2008, the Conservatives were looking specifically for a Chinese woman (Wai Young) to run in this riding -- and I'm sure her demographic intersectionality contributed to the extremely close race, among various other factors. Furthermore, South Asian support for the Conservatives is also quite strong, so one should not assume that South Asians only vote Liberals. It was the vital South Asian support that helped many CPC candidates claim victory in 2008. There are also quite a few Conservative MPs of South Asian origin (e.g. Nina Grewal).
	09 08 24	Observer 89.180.69.237
South Asians have big numbers in Vancouver South. And they vote mainly for the Liberal party. If Conservatives choose a well-known south asian candidate they could win.
	09 08 23	96.49.110.185
This riding is, without a doubt, too close to call. Despite over confident predictions from pundits who predicted this riding would be a Liberal landslide last election, it turned out that this riding was not a slam dunk. I had predicted that the race would be a lot closer than previously predicted, and it turned out to be true. That supposed ‘landslide’ turned out to be just 20 votes when just two years ago, Liberal Dosanjh's margin of victory was 9000 votes! This close shave reflects the emergence of the Conservatives (and NDP in other ridings) as serious challengers to the Liberals' former vice-grip on the ethnic vote. Consider the fact that Conservative Wai Young's campaign basically had no financial support from the party and a relatively weak organization in the riding compared to Dosanjh's leviathan of campaign helpers and riding organization. Still, the fact that the Conservatives came 0.00048% away from claiming this Liberal stronghold is quite a feat. It definitely shows the inroads the Conservatives have made in the ethnic community. So who will come out the victor next election? For one thing, Dosanjh seems to be a lot more active than he previously was (in my opinion), which could ensure another victory for him. On the other hand, Wai Young has also been building support in the community for the next election. It could go either way. One thing is for sure: this will be an interesting race to watch.