Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Vancouver Centre

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
12:53 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
12:58 PM 6/26/2004

Constituency Profile
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Kimball Cariou
John Clarke
Canadian Action canadienne:
Alexander Frei
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Hedy Fry
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Robbie Mattu
Gary Mitchell
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Joe Pal
Kennedy Stewart

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Vancouver Centre (94.3%)
Hon. Hedy Fry
Vancouver East (5.7%)
Libby Davies

2000 Result/Résultats:
18,774 41.98%
11,465 25.64%
5,971 13.35%
5,150 11.52%
3,359 7.51%

Vancouver Centre
(207/275 polls, 72228/96047 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Vancouver East
(16/191 polls, 4378/71791 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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23/06/04 DJF
Email: [hidden]
Based on the campaign style, performance in local debates and desire for change in this riding, I believe that Kennedy Stewart has the upper hand. Most folks in the riding and in the rest of Canada remember Hedy Fry for one thing: her statements about racism in Prince George. Even though she corrected her statement the next day, most people didn't hear the correction. Sadly in politics people remember the outrageous statement, regardless of whatever positive contributions an MP may have made. As such I think this urban riding is ready for change, but not ready for a move to the right. Kennedy Stewart has most of the qualities which reflect this riding in terms of education, age and lifestyle.
24/06/04 David Josephy
Email: [hidden]
The standing prediction of a safe Liberal win in Van. Centreis absurd. This riding has a long history of super-close contests, going back to the days of Art Phillips and Pat Carney. It is probably going NDP, or at least should be Too Close to Call.
23/06/04 michael
Email: [hidden]
why hasn't this prediction changed? 2 seperate polls released in the last 2 days have kennedy at 46% and hedy at 30%. gary is back at 18-20%. even when the margin of error is factored in kennedy still has a 5% lead. the ndp has won the sign war by far (no public property signs are allowed in the city of vancouver so every sign is connected to at least one voter). not to mention kennedy has recieved endorsements from xtra-west and the georgia straight, while the courier ran an ad from the firefighters endorsing him. the voters want a change in this riding and kennedy is the one they are looking towards more and more everyday!
23/06/04 Victor A.
Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com
I believe that K. Stewart should win this riding. All the controversy over Hedy Fry's statements from 2001 is just too much and the CPC is polling only 18 % is the city of Vancouver gives K. Stewart a clear advantage. Furthemore, the most affluent parts of Vancouver-Centre were added into Vancouver-Quadra. Not a large win, by any means but Vancouver-Centre will be one of the 6 NDP ridings in BC. The other ones will be Vancouver-East, Burnaby-Douglas, Skeena-Bulkley Valley, Nanaimo-Alberni and Nanaimo-Cowichan. The NDP has also a chance in other Vancouver Island ridings: Victoria, Saanich-Gulf Islands, Esquaimaut-Juan de Fuca as well as in Surrey-North and maybe just maybe New Westminster-Coquitlam.
23/06/04 Aric Houlihan
Email: arichoulihan@rogers.com
This riding should have been in the too close to call category for a while now. At this moment, I am ready to predict it for the NDP. Recent NDP internal polling shows the following for Vancouver Centre:
Kennedy Stewart (NDP) 46.9%
Hedy Fry (Lib) 30.6%
Gary Mitchell (Con) 17.7%
Rob Mattu (GN) 4.1%
Internal party polls are not always as reliable, but a 16 point lead over Liberal Hedy Fry, and current trends of a higher NDP vote than last time and a lower Liberal vote than last time with the Conservatives not having a big presence here, lead to an NDP Kennedy Stewart prediction.
23/06/04 Seymour Howe
Email: [hidden]
I think it's time for the editors to call this downtown riding for the NDP...or at least remove the prediction for the Liberals. Internal polling by the NDP shows Kennedy Stewart with 47%, Hedy Fry with 31%, Gary Mitchell with 18% and Rob Mattu with 4%. I'm not sure what the margin of error is, and perhaps detractors will say "of course the NDP will skew its polls to favor the NDP" but I think this decisive lead is enough for me to call this one for the NDP.
I wonder if any more Conservatives will post claims that Gary Mitchell, the "reasonable moderate conservative", has a chance in this riding? If so, please explain your logic. I'm really curious.
It seems that I was right that the NDP's increase in the polls in BC has occurred more in Vancouver than elsewhere. Jack Layton's focus on urban issues to have reasonated here. Interestingly, the same NDP pollsters found Nanaimo-Cowichan, which EP has already called for the NDP, to be a statistical dead heat between the Tories and the NDP. Perhaps Layton is too "big city" for the likings of the residents of this riding.
22/06/04 Liu Bang
Email: [hidden]
With a week to go, it's starting to look like regardless of whether the Liberals or Conservatives end up with the plurality of seats that Hedy Fry is going to lose, likely to Kennedy Stewart who seems very much to be in the lead, if the signs and presence at the door are any indication.
21/06/04 Brent
Email: blondboybc@yahoo.ca
Its definitely time to move this one to the too close to call, given what local media and pundits are saying. Nonetheless, its seems increasingly likely that there could be an upset here, given the strength of the NDP in Vancouver and many urban ridings in BC, and the disillusion with Ms. Fry and the Liberals here. Polls indicate a close race in Vancouver ridings, especially between the Libs and NDP.
My prediction as of this time: NDP 37, Libs 33, Cons 20, Greens 9
21/06/04 ulala
Email: [hidden]
This riding's prediction NEEDS to be changed!
This one's looking more and more like an easy NDP pick-up. Look at today's Mustel poll: http://www.mustelgroup.com/062104.htm. Sure, the Liberals are at 39% in the City of Vancouver (NDP at 37%, conservatives, dead in the water at 18%), but consider the following.
The NDP have no support in Vancouver South or Vancouver Quadra. The Liberals are going to clean up with about 45% of the vote. This means their support is much weaker in ridings like Centre, East and Kingsway!
NDP takes this riding 39%, Libs 30, Cons 22, Greens 7, others 2
20/06/04 LJ
Email: [hidden]
This riding is starting to look good for Stewart. The sign count is quite bizarre, in that the NDP totally dominate: there are virtually no Conservative signs to be seen, and even the Liberal Fry signs account for no more than 1/3. No Green presence either. I've seen more Christian Heritage signs than Green. Chats with service people, friends, and so on seem to support this feeling. As far as energy, mentions in the press, and visibility count for anything, this may well be a surprise upset for the socialists.
20/06/04 g. debrun
Email: [hidden]
I don't know exactly what the always effusive NDP backers are smoking, but they seem to like to dream out loud. There isn't a safer Lib seat -- it may be the only safe lib seat west of Manitoba -- and the NDP candidate has done nothing to dent that. Fry has many flaws but she has served her constituents well and almost gained a Robinson-esque reputation in the west end. really, I guess shouting loudly against all odds likely won't squelch the leakage as voters choose between the Cons and the Libs in what has all the earmarkings of a close race...
15/06/04 Interested Voter
Email: [hidden]
I continue to stick with my earlier predictions of a return to the Tory fold here. Fry is appearing more and more desperate, and Mitchell is getting a lot of media pickup as a moderate, reasonable conservative. He has also been getting some traction by opting out of debates where the Greens are not invited. Greens are moving into the low teens, and many of the anti-Hedy but not -Tory votes will go there. Kennedy Stewart is also doing well -- race between NDP and Tories now that the bottom has fallen out of Paul Martin's campaign post debate.
15/06/04 Downtowner
Email: [hidden]
This one is over. The NDP is clearly winning. Forget the signs (which clearly show Fry is not popular) local polling puts the NDP at close to 40%. Stewart will win. The only question is whether this is a sample of a wider trend in BC in which liberal support is implodding and the NDP is picking it up (they are almost in a dead heat province wide). I suspect this riding suggests the NDP support is concentrated in the Urban ridings. If Stewart wins here. Liberal David Anderson is probably in trouble in Victoria, and the NDP will probably pick up Vancouver Kingsway and the Brurnaby/New Westminister ridings as well. Simply the NDP should not have been able to win here. The fact that they are suggests the liberals may be hard pushed to win even two seats in BC.
15/06/04 duane
Email: duane@snille.com
Hedy has had this seat for a long time. The anti-Gordon Campbell/anti-Liberal vote will cost her. Even though the Provincial and Federal parties maintain a distance, people out here just don't like the Liberals. Nothing personal, just that it is a tradition. Also, The Liberals have lost a chunk of VanCentre to VanQuadra through population change and GerryMandering. The Liberals lost some of there wealthier constituents from VanCentre to VanQuadra. Owen's gain will be Fry's loss. Without the wealthier Kitsilano votes, the NDP will have a higher concentration of Downtown voters who will be more likely to vote for them. The NDP in a major upset!
14/06/04 Mookey
Email: [hidden]
At the very least, Vanc-Centre needs to be moved into the "too close to call" category.
Contrary to many posters, this is not a particularly affluent riding. Most permanent residents that vote in the riding live in the west end/downtown core - appr. 75% of the riding population. Yaletown/Coal Harbour developments are populated by people from overseas and rich Americans without voting rights, as well as wealthy people with permanent homes outside the riding. Most people here are renters, working and middle class.
Kennedy Stewart has decisively won the all-candidates debates thus far, and the momentum for our campaign is amazing. However, thus far all of Fry's signs are in her assistant Steve Borne's apartment building, plus a few are posted in landlords' suites, and on B&B properties. Kennedy Stewart is winning the apartment window sign war by about a 5 to 1 margin and is polling between 35%-40%. The Green Party candidate is a nice guy but very weak and will not be a factor. CPC candidate Gary Mitchell has a solid base of support among straight men and seniors but will come in third overall with a respectable finish. Hedy Fry has a lock on the gay community vote but women and seniors have flooded over to the NDP in droves. Traditional federal Liberal voters have abandoned this demoralized effort.
11/06/04 DL
Email: [hidden]
I'm increasingly convinced the NDP will win here. This riding is a perfect concentration of exactly the constituency that is most attracted to Jack Layton's NDP. The Compas poll out today shows that in Vancouver South (a totally unwinnable seat for the NDP) NDP party support with no candidates named would be 33% and tied for the lead. If the NDP can be at 33% in a bad riding like Van South, they are probably at 45% in Van Centre.
10/06/04 MSH
Email: [hidden]
A recent lister expressed the view that the left-wing vote in Vancouver Centre might split, making a Conservative win possible. Where did the curious notion come from that the Chretien-Martin Liberals are a left-wing party? Look at what the Liberals did to balance the budget, which used to be a Conservative demand even though under the Mulroney-Wilson leadership the PC's were quite unable to do it. Transfer payments to the provinces have been cut, and Employment Insurance has been milked and milked again, taking billions out of the pockets of working Canadians to eliminate the deficit.
If Conservatives, as distinct from the Reform-Alliance crowd, had any sense they would be voting Liberal this time round. What they will actually be doing I can't guess, though I imagine a good many, unable to shake their distaste for the neoconservatism and bigotry of many Harper backers, their historical opposition to the Grits, and their fear of the NDP, will stay home or vote Green. Which is what I, a disgruntled Liberal who thinks Harper and his crowd are a menace, will probably do unless it develops that the Liberal candidate is in trouble in my riding, which at present she is not.
What does this mean for Vancouver Centre? I haven't lived in B.C. for quite a while but I do get back there often. The riding could go NDP, I would guess, though Hedy Fry's reelection seems more likely. Those who are predicting a Conservative win here are probably the same people who predicted an Alliance win here in 2000. Hope springs eternal .... Unless things are happening in Vancouver that aren't happening in downtown ridings in the other two major metropolitan centres of Canada, Montreal and Toronto, the Conservatives will finish third.
09/06/04 Shane
Email: [hidden]
I'm a gay man who lives in the heart of this riding, the West End... definately a big demographic. Judging by the number of signs you can see in apartment windows and balconies, this is a two-way race between Hedy Fry and Kennedy Stewart (I have yet to see a Conservative sign, and I've only seen one Green). Judging by the "word-on-the-street", this is likely the election that Hedy will lose. She is not popular. She is seen as inept and an opportunist. Kennedy Stewart has a bit more work to get his name out there, but the NDP is the only alternative in this riding to those who do not want Hedy anymore. The NDP sense this, and are pouring a lot of effort to win this riding.
09/06/04 Augustus Brian
Email: [hidden]
Vancouver Centre is yet another BC riding that is experiencing a three-way race. Hedy Fry will lose votes due, in part, to the scandal surrounding her nomination (and embarrassment caused by her infamous "burning crosses" comment). Her great strength is her hold on the gay vote, to which she has been wed for more than a decade. Disaffected gay Liberal voters cannot be wooed by Gary Mitchell who has, quite simply, chosen the wrong party for which to run. (In today's Xtra! West he claims to be something of a Libby Davies fan!)
The bulk of voters who feel they can no longer support Hedy Fry - and there are an awful lot of them - will be scooped up by the NDP's Kennedy Stewart. That said, barring any gaffs, Ms Fry may just squeek through.
I must disagree with Matt W's comment that "affluent voters have moved into Yaletown and Coal Harbour and are strong Conservatives." Not only aren't these people Conservatives, the vast majority aren't even conservatives (note the upper and lower-case, a very BIG difference). I've not seen a single Conservative sign in Yaletown - indeed, the NDP has the greatest visual presence.
09/06/04 Seymour Howe
Email: [hidden]
Matt, you say: "More affluent voters have moved into Yaletown and Coal Harbour and are strong Conservatives." Others have made similar points linking affluent voters with the Conservatives That's not necessarily true, if not outright false. Canadians by and large don't vote on class lines. And if you look at urban cores, conservative candidates do lousy even among "affluent voters". Toronto is years ahead of Vancouver in terms of having a huge yuppie population in the downtown core, and they by-and-large DON'T VOTE CONSERVATIVE (many vote NDP in fact). And looking at West Coast cities in the US, Seattle is the best-educated major central city in North America, San Francisco is just slightly behind. And are these yuppie enclaves bastions of right-wing conservatism? Hardly. This is a race between the NDP and the Liberals. And increasingly I think it's more likely to go NDP. You have Layton, whose base is largely among yuppies with a guilty conscience, focusing on urban issues. The NDP's up in the polls in BC and I suspect the increase is disproportionately occurring in Vancouver, as opposed to say, Kamloops. Furthermore, even with the increased national support for the Tories in BC, no poll has shown BC to be remotely close to going back to its 2000 right-wing vote. And how can the Conservatives gain in one of their weakest BC ridings when their provincial support is down???
09/06/04 Observer
Email: [hidden]
There is an interesting observation about signage in a previous post. The person predicts that the NDP will do well because there are way more NDP signs than Liberal signs. "Where is the Liberal support hiding?" it is asked. Well, I don't think signage is a very accurate predictor of electoral victory in this riding where most residents live in multifamily apartments or condos and have no sprawling front lawns to plant signs. From the few signs I've seen Downtown and in Kits, I've only seen red liberal Fry signs. Then again, I've seen only about ten signs in private residences out of hundreds, if not thousands of apartments. In my 22 story condo building, I can't find one sign at all. In the two towers next door - I can't see any signs from any political party. The closest sign is a lone liberal sign on one townhouse unit a block away near the Coal Harbour waterfront and no other signs from any other political party. Having said that, I think that Fry will win given her name recognition and for no other reason than the publicity caused by her well known "interesting" insights she has expressed about Prince George. I think Fry's case clearly illustrates the old adage that bad publicity is better than no publicity.
06/06/04 Full Name
Email: [hidden]
Now that the election is fully under way and we have had almost 2 weeks of campaigning, it seems increasingly likely that there could be an upset in this riding which is still--most puzzlingly-- being predicted as a Liberal win. At the least it would be advisable to post it now as too close.
Walking through this riding, I have yet to see one Liberal sign. What's up with that? Are the Liberal supporters hiding? From what I observe, NDP signs outnumber all others (read Conservative) 3-1 thus far. This riding is ripe for change, as Liberal support continues to wane. At this point I give the edge to the NDP to take this in a close race. Should be a fun one to watch election night!
06/06/04 Matt W
Email: [hidden]
I live and work in this riding and can safely say that anyone can win this race. Recall that the provincial Liberals (who are most like the federal Conservatives), running a gay man, won this riding easily last election. Sure, a pet hamster could have beat the NDP in many ridings, but this was supposedly a safe one for them. The left vote could easily split and the combined PC/Alliance vote COULD take it. More affluent voters have moved into Yaletown and Coal Harbour and are strong Conservatives. The NDP and even the Greens only subtract votes from an already weak Hedi. Don't be surprised if the Conservatives win with 35% of the vote.
05/06/04 Oven Mitt
Email: [hidden]
Dr. Kennedy Stewart as nor next MP? You've got to be joking. What's he a doctor of anyway? Many people I have talked to find him to be incredibly pompous. And, while he brags to have the Larry Campbell crowd backing him, they are in fact sitting on their hands. Hedy Fry is probably the most bizarre MP that we have ever had, but I'd take her over Kennedy Stewart any day.
05/06/04 David
Email: [hidden]
So Gary Mitchell is invisible, only to people who don't watch TV, read papers or listen to the Radio. Gary Mitchell has one of the highest profiles of any candidate in the country. His profile is so high that Kennedy Stewart has gone to Tory events in hopes of being seen. In fact - it took Gary introducing Kennedy once for me to even know who he was. This riding has far too many voters with money to vote for the NDP, and far too high of a level of education to re-elect Headless McFry.
03/06/04 JM
Email: [hidden]
I'm not so sure about the Conservatives having "no chance in hell in this riding" or the candidate being "weak". As OB aptly points out, most of this riding consists of "tennants [sic], middle-lower class in the West End, the largest concentration of voters in the riding". Quite unlike the NDP and Liberal candidates, Gary Mitchell is a middle-lower class tenant in the West End. And the compbined PC-Alliance vote from the last (pre-scandal) election was close to Dr. Fry's total.
01/06/04 Old Political Hack
Email: [hidden]
There will be plenty of talk about three way races across BC -- this one might actually live up to the billing. The demographics of this riding are changing, moving more upscale as all the condos on False Creek and Cole Harbour get populated. It also has a very transient population in the rental apartments in the West End, with the voters list changing significantly election to election. This one is a real wild card, and will be tough to call for another couple of weeks yet...
28/05/04 OB
Many posters say that Hedy Fry is popular in this riding. I saw her out with her people carrying her signs on a busy intersection (Beach and Denman) the day the election was called. Nobody was honking, nobody was talking to her, she even got booed a few times. Very few people like Hedy. She is incompetent, dumb, silent on the issues, and unreacheable to her constituents. She tries to work the seniors and the gay vote. But I am not sure if these groups will respond to her efforts, given the NDP is a good option for them. The conservatives have no chance in hell in this riding. That is why they have such a weak candidate here. It is largely tennants, middle-lower class in the West End, the largest concentration of voters in the riding. The NDP can take this. Too bad the NDP set up their office outside the West End, in a downtown street, out of the way of most residents in the riding.
25/05/04 michael smith
Email: [hidden]
i have to respond to the person who was saying that kennedy stewart has been invisible. i have never seen gary mitchell on the streets in the west end (where most of the voters are). even the greens have more visibility than he does. kennedy has been out on the street rain or shine, he's been in the papers, on the radio, and on tv in the last week. hedy has been seen only in front of her office tucked away at the far end of the riding. kennedy's office is right in the centre of the riding geographically, and i have no idea where mitchell's office is.
23/05/04 Sam
Email: [hidden]
It seems funny to me that any of the candidates are being ruled out at this point. The latest polls have the Vancouver Centre race deemed a dead heat. Needless to say, with Hedy's nomination victory under police investigation, and an NDP candidate that nobody sees much of, and with Conservative Gary Mitchell pounding the pavement all over the riding, look for more and more voters who are disgusted with their absentee MP to look to him to carry the banner for them in the 38th Parliament.
17/05/04 DL
Email: [hidden]
Just a point of information. Kennedy Stewart, the NDP candidate is ultra-gay positive - but he is not gay himself. The only OPENLY gay candidate is the Conservative (anyone Uncle Tom's Cabin lately?).
13/05/04 Brent
Email: [hidden]
This will be a close race between the LIB and NDP candidates. Ms. Fry, though fairly popular in past, has been tarnished by the perception (correct or not) that she unfairly manipulated her win as the LIB candidate. Furthermore, the NDP is surging in this province and accross the country to levels of support not seen since the late 80's under Ed Broadbent (near 20% nationally, 30% provincially according to most recent polls). Coupled with the fact that Liberal Kits is now gone under redistribution, and with the extension of this riding further east into traditional NDP territory, Ms. Fry could have a big fight on her hands from the gay NDP candidate, Mr. Kennedy. I'm holding my final judgement on this one till the election gets underway, but don't be surprised if it comes down to the wire!
13/05/04 Vancouver Voter
Email: [hidden]
As Keith Davey used to say "once the voters start laughing at you, it's all over." First burning crosses, then the silence on 9/11, getting dumped from cabinet, and now "Hedy Fraud". The voters are laughing at this embarrassment that just keeps giving and giving. Look for the upwardly mobile voters of Centre to start banking on moderate conservative Gary Mitchell.
04/05/04 JD Smyth
Email: [hidden]
Hedy Fry probably won't win the riding by the margin that she won in the last election, but she'll win it again. She has an appeal to her constituents that goes beyond traditional party lines. She staved off a well-organized challenge from Lynne Kennedy and her (more conservative) supporters and what was rumoured to be a vote-swapping deal between Kennedy and Noormohamad, and her ability to win the nomination was illustrative of the fact that she can galvanize her pockets of support into action (gays and lesbians, yes, but also the arts community and ethnic communities). Hedy Fry is the type of politician that people either love or hate; lucky for her the people that hate her are largely from outside of her constituency.
03/05/04 E. Andrew Washburn
Email: [hidden]
Hedy Fry is the incumbent: This is the woman who defeated Kim Campbell in 1993. I think there is a strong NDP base of support here, but not enough to defeat Ms. Fry. The same applies for the Conservatives. It will be a close race for second I think, but this riding has gone red recently, showing clear support for Hedy Fry.
29/04/04 Seymour Howe
Email: [hidden]
This riding will go either Liberal or NDP. It definitely will NOT go Conservative. Since this riding has a large number of affluent voters, a lot of posters have assumed that the Conservatives can win here. Except a lot of these affluent voters are quite progressive, and contains a good number of "champagne socialists". Canadians do not vote along class lines anymore. Layton has turned the NDP into a largely middle class professional party. A lot of yuppies really like Layton - with his strong opposition to American militarism and support for gay rights.
As for Gary Mitchell or even Stephen Harper being social libertarians and government out of the bedroom and so on...that may be true for Mitchell, though Harper certainly doesn't seem to suggest this. I'll stand by my statement that the gay and lesbian voters of this riding won't cast too many votes for the CPC.
26/04/04 Political Science honours student
Email: philip83_1999@yahoo.com
Much as I dislike Hedy Fry, I would have to give her this seat. While she may have a dismal record in Ottawa, she is quite popular in Vancouver Centre. Vancouver Centre is a trendy liberal riding that is too rich to vote NDP and too progressive on social issues to vote Conservative. Fry won the last election comfortably and I think she can pull it off.
24/04/04 Wallace
Email: [hidden]
The Hed-case is going to lose ... and lose badly. Kennedy Stewart is a strong candidate, and the turf that Centre picked up from East will help him. The waiter running for the Conservatives won't be a factor at all. Meanwhile, Stewart will be helped by his association with the very popular Mayor, Larry Campbell.
24/04/04 Interested Voter
Email: [hidden]
Did anyone notice last week's coverage afforded to Gary Mitchell? He's running a very media savvy campaign, and should be able to do much better than the Alliance candidate last time - based on his social contribution credentials alone. And with Svend no longer around to talk about issues of relevance to a large portion of the West End audience, the torch appears to be passed to Gary.
14/04/04 Neal
Seymour, I beg to doiffer with your assertion of Libertarians supporting SSM. In fact, the true libertarian position would be to remove marriage from the purview of government and leave it to the jurisdiction of religious institutions. Civil unions would be negotiated privately, and in the event of a dissolution, arbitrated privately, in the libertarian view.
This may well be the only way we can extricate ourselves from this mess the Liberals got us into on the issue.
You see, when SSM becomes the law of the land, it is nearly inevitable that the next step would be to charge churches with discrimination if they refuse to "marry" same sex couples.
That said, not all homosexuals buy into the extremist and statist agenda of the radicals. This riding, depending on the candidates, can go in any of three directions. Advantage to the Conservative, since the leftist votes will be divided between the Libs and NDP. If the Conservtive and NDP cndidates have any substance whatsoever, Hedy Fry can look forward to having more time for trips to Kelowna to watch crosses burning "as we speak".
13/04/04 ERB
Email: [hidden]
I agree with Garth - the NDP has not been competitive for the past 3 election cycles, but they do have a reservoir of support to draw on, and if the Liberals remain in freefall nationally, while the CPC drops like a stone (compared to their combined 2000 numbers) in BC regionally, then this is exactly the sort of progressive urban seat that will be vulnerable to Jack Layton's appeal. With a good national campaign, his candidate, Kennedy Stewart, stands to benefit from running against a tired Hedy Fry and a masochistic gay man (how he will square his party allegiances with the social views those of his neanderthal CPC colleagues in the surrounding suburbs and the interior is beyond me) running for the CPC.
10/04/04 Matthew Laberee
Email: matthew.laberee@telus.net
Unlike most BC ridings, Vancouver Centre is a hard call. Although many may see Liberal incumbant Hedy Fry as ineffectual in Ottawa, she is fairly popular about town. That being said, given the apparent swing to the right under Paul Martin, Hedy's popularity may begin to wane. If this is combined with a strong campaign by Kennedy Stewart and the NDP Canada wide, this riding could very well swing to the NDP. Another factor worth considering is the changing demographic in Vancouver Centre. The recent completion of more affluent neighbourhoods such as Yaletown and Coal Harbour could very well prop up Liberal and Conservative popularity; however, if Jack Layton and Kennedy Stewart campaign is seen as not too radical, these same people could swing left. Kennedy Stewarts campaign seems to be centered on urban issues, and given the pace at which Vancouver is growing, he could win lots of support.
07/04/04 Garth Brasseur
Email: [hidden]
With the Liberal vote in BC in free fall, I don't think there is a safe Liberal riding left. This is precisely the kind of riding that will fall the NDP's way if recent polls are indicative of a lasting trend.
05/04/04 Scott G.
Email: [hidden]
This could be one of only a few seats in BC where a sitting MP faces a close race (the others being David Anderson and Keith Martin in Victoria). In all of these races, the personal popularity of the MP in question will probably end up making the difference. And I suspect that Hedy Fry remains popular here, despite some of the outrageous statements she's made over the past few years, and despite her perceived ineffectiveness at the national level. She comes across as being sensitive to the concerns of various constituencies - the gay community, immigrants, women, and urban professionals leery of the NDP's continued reliance on class warfare rhetoric and the Tories' continued social conservatism.
That being said, some circumstances have changed since 2000. Can Martin repeat Chretien's highly successful demonization of the Stockwell-Day-led Alliance? It'll be tough to do so in Vancouver Centre, where Tory candidate Gary Mitchell is a gay man who was a Progressive Conservative before the merger. And from 1980 until the Tories fell apart in the early '90s, they held the riding. Vancouver Centre has a history of very close races: the Liberals and Tories in '74 (Liberal hold), all three parties in '79 and '80 (Liberal hold; Tory win), and the Tories and NDP in '88 (when Kim Campbell beat NDP candidate Johanna den Hertog by fewer than 300 votes).
The NDP haven't been competitive in the riding since '88, but this is true across BC and Canada in general, and may be changing now that the right is reunited, left-leaning Jean Chretien has been replaced by right-winger Paul Martin, and BC is governed by Liberals instead of the NDP. The NDP candidate, Kennedy Stewart, may not be a celebrity like David Suzuki (not that I'm a fan of Suzuki - I support the NDP but would probably vote Tory or Green or Rhino if Suzuki ran as a New Democrat). But Stewart's credentials seem solid enough -- a political science professor running on a platform centred around urban issues like improving public transit. I think you can count on the NDP to at least take a lot of votes from the Liberals in Van Centre this time.
Add to this the dubious circumstances around Fry's re-nomination -- the allegation that she illegally offered to pay for someone's party membership, and the scheduling of the nomination meeting on a religious holiday, which made it more difficult for supporters of challenger Taleeb Nurmohamed to vote -- and many Liberal supporters may decide that they can't support Fry again, and vote for other parties or stay home. People who would have voted against Fry in '97 or 2000 but saw her as impervious to any challenges could now see her as vulnerable, and be more motivated to get out and vote.
These changed circumstances may still not be enough to defeat Fry. My gut sense is that she'll defeat Mitchell by only a few hundred votes, with Stewart a few thousand votes behind both of them. But I wouldn't make a call on this race yet.
05/04/04 DL
Email: [hidden]
Forget the Suzuki rumours. The NDP nominated Kennedy Stewart last week. In any case, Layton has made it perfectly clear in the wake of the Martin appointments that the NDP does not EVER appoint candidates excpet when there is no one running at all.
If things go badly for the Liberals, this seat shoudl be winnable for the NDP, but the jury is out for now.
05/04/04 Vortigern
Email: [hidden]
Suggesting this will go Conservative is, at this point, wishful thinking at best. Conservative support in every recent poll has been well behind the level of Alliance support in 2000. In any case, this riding just isn't as conservative-friendly as Vancouver South, or even Quadra. I'm leaning toward a Liberal hold, with Fry taking around 40%, but let's wait to see how the campaign goes.
02/04/04 Seymour Howe
Email: [hidden]
Harper may not be Stockwell Day, but he's no libertarian either. No honest libertarian could be opposed to SSM. Personally, Harper is likely not much of a social conservative. That being said, however, Harper is the leader of a party in which the Christian Right is a huge constituency. Therefore, he has to throw crumbs to this massive voting bloc - either in policy (by coming out against SSM) or in style (by publicly stating "God Bless Canada").
What is truly astonishing is that the Canadian Alliance did so well in the Vancouver suburbs in 2000, because of the area's generally secular and socially liberal culture.
One thing I'm certain about, the Joe Clark Tories were not part of the "right" in BC last time around. David Orchard supporters were a very large part of this group. Very few Tory voters in BC will be coming over to the united Conservative Party, more will go to the NDP. This is sharply different from say, rural eastern and southwestern Ontario, where I suspect there will be a lot of Conservatives elected.
Finally, sure there's a movement of (generally politically leftist or countercultural) gays and lesbians who oppose SSM. But I'm quite certain very few gay and lesbian voters will be voting for Harper.
Most likely this riding will stay Liberal, though the NDP, with a very gay-friendly, urbane leader in Jack Layton has a good shot in a riding like this one, even among yuppies. If David Suzuki is indeed the candidate (though I haven't heard about him expressing interest), the NDP could win due to a ton of lost Green support.
Prediction: LIB 39%, NDP 39%, CPC 14%, others (mainly Greens) 8%
01/04/04 The Hack
Email: threeoheightseats@hotmail.com
Gary Mitchell is a former Progressive Conservative. All the Liberals need to drop is a few thousand votes and the CPC can take it. Not too dwell on the issue, but Gary's a gay man and that will play an important role in this riding.
Slim CPC victory.
01/04/04 JJ
Email: [hidden]
This riding will see growing discontent (can it possibly be any greater?) caused by Hedy Fry's numerous gaffes and her inability/unwillingness to go to bat for her constituents when it counts. The aloof NDP candidate will fail to resonate with Vancouver Centre voters. The Conservatives, however, have made a smart move in nominating a relatively young, urban red Tory to run in this riding. Gary Mitchell may be the one to unseat Dr. Fry and her burning crosses.
31/03/04 David
Email: [hidden]
The candidate is no christian fundementalist. Either you (Kelly) have the riding, or you need to take your meds.
31/03/04 Milton
Email: [hidden]
Not that I am fond of him, but to be fair, how you came to the conclusion that Harper is a fundamentalist is beyond me. Stockwell perhaps, but Harper? I thought he is a libertarian... Lots of gays in Vancouver Centre are oppose to same-sex marriage too you know, and I trust few would call them Christian fundamentalists.
30/03/04 Eric Blair
Email: [hidden]
Mark my words - the NDP will appoint David Suzuki as a candidate in Centre. When they do, Hedy's reign of terror will be at a merciful end.
29/03/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
ASs much as I dislike Hedy Fry as an MP, I am changin my mind, the NDP has not chosen a strong name to run against, certainly not anyone with a cachet among the gay community.
I also spoke with a friend who is political and has lived in the riding for years - he is pro NDP but figures Hedy has the gay community
26/03/04 Peter Kelly
Email: [hidden]
With the election of a Christian fundamentalist as leader of the conservative party who has made some provocative statements on his opinion of the legal status of gay relationships, Stephen Harpers party will be lucky to come in third here. They will scrap it out for 3rd and 4th with the greens.
Any more talk of conservative gains in Van-centre are pure hallucinations by Conservative party hacks that are off the deep end. NDP gain.
26/03/04 Vortigern
Email: [hidden]
I'm not sure how anyone can call this one just yet. Fry is not especially popular, and her profile of late has been dismal, but she is an incumbent with three wins under her belt. COPE victories municipally, and an increasingly popular provincial NDP, should boost the Federal party, as should the eastward shift in the boundaries. Leave this one undecided for now.
24/03/04 David
Email: [hidden]
For anyone to say this riding is going to go NDP is just ridiculous. There is way too much money in the West End for that riding to make the mistake of electing and NDP MP. The riding shift does not do much to include traditional NDP voters, and is still almost completly in the affluant professional part of Vancouver. People are mad at the BC Liberals here, but they are not going to vote for the NDP, Conservative pick up.
23/03/04 Peter Kelly
Email: [hidden]
Liberals are in no position to gain anything anywhere in BC. But to predict a conservative pick up in this riding is especially asinine. The last time the conservatives won this seat was in the re-election of Mulroney when the PC's won almost 43% of the national vote. That is simply beyond the scope of possibility in Van-centre, especially now that its boundaries have shifted east into NDP territory.
Hedy Fry will collect her pension and this area will send another NDP MP to Ottawa.
23/03/04 Jacob
Email: [hidden]
Hedy won her nomination.... All speculation is over. Hedy wins this in a landslide. She is very popular in this riding. The gay community in particular love her.
22/03/04 Cod Father
Email: [hidden]
Taking the redistribution results from 2000, adding the CA & PC vote together, and noting a resurgent NDP and anger for the waste with the Liberals, this one will be a squeeker, but go Conservative, the first time since 1988. Anger at Hedy Fry and her talk of cross burning in Prince George will help here.
20/03/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
This riding has been close to NDP federally a few times and I suspect will fall to the NDP for a host or reasons:
This riding is Jack Layton type country.
The Liberals are running a very weak and very unpopular woman as leader that no one wants as MP
The BC NDP is coming out of the doghouse and normally win this riding provincially
Paul Martin is too rightwing for the riding
What it depends on is the quality of the NDP candidate. A good one will win this, a bad one will help Hedy Fry.
20/03/04 First Name
Email: [hidden]
I think this riding is going to move back to the Conservative Party. No one party has a corner on the gay community and with a left leaning Liberal and the NDP to split the left Gary, a moderate Conservative can take this riding.
20/03/04 SH
Email: [hidden]
Something wicked is coming for the Liberals, particularly in BC. NDP has more than doubled its strength in the polls since the last election. Liberals are carrying too much baggage these days, and Liberal MP Heidi Fry's "they are burning crosses in Prince George" comment, showed incredible lack of judgement.
19/03/04 Liu Bang
Email: [hidden]
Electoral history suggests strongly that this seat will go Liberal, but I think it will be very close and and at the moment I'll go out on a limb and predict an NDP victory (if Kennedy Stewart is the candidate). The Liberal hopes for big gains in BC are likely dead because of the scandals and I think that the rapid decline of the Campbell govt will hit both Liberals and Conservatives in BC to the advantage of the NDP. If Layton runs a good national campaign, this one could easily goe their way.
19/03/04 P. Kelly
Email: [hidden]
The NDP will pick up this riding. The electoral boundaries shifted east into NDP friendly territory and the Liberals are in the dog house right now.
Federal polling puts the NDP into a close second place ahead of the conservatives, and provincially, they have moved into first place ahead of Gordon Campbell's Liberals.
After this election, Liberals will occupy very few seats in BC, and this is not one of them.
17/03/04 M.W.
Email: mijawara@yahoo.com
Liberal hold/NDP pickup: all depends on Hedy. Always one of BC's weakest ministers, Fry remains unquestionably popular in the riding. She's being challenged for the nomination by former NPA councillor Lynne Kennedy and entrepreneur-turned-bureaucrat Taleeb Noormohammed. Kennedy is reviled in many quarters of Van Centre, and if she wins the Liberal nod and the NDP keeps nudging 30% in BC (up from 11% in 2000), one of the stronger NDP candidates (Stewart or Revel) will be within striking distance of an upset. And if Queen Hedy beats off the pretenders? Easy Liberal win.
16/03/04 Objective Observer
Email: objectiveobserver2004@yahoo.ca
Historically since the 1940's, Vancouver Centre has been Liberal with the exception of the 1957/1958 Diefenbaker era. During the 1979 election, when the federal Liberals were very unpopular in B.C., Art Phillips managed to win as the lone B.C. federal Liberal. During the 1980 and 1984 elections, Pat Carney, a red Tory, held the seat with Kim Campbell holding the seat as a PC in 1988. Hedy Fry has held the seat over the last 3 elections with comfortable margins over the second place P.C./Reform/CA. During the last election, the federal Liberals garnered 27.6% of the B.C. vote. They had reached a plateau of 42% prior to the sponsorship scandal and have since rebounded to about 32%. With all of the new condominium towers constructed in Yaletown, Bayshore, and Concord Place during the last five years and with their owner's probable centrist voting patterns, I am comfortable in predicting a Liberal victory in this seat.

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