08 07 09	DL 99.233.94.146
Michael Byers will almost certainly be the NDP candidate here. He is getting a ton of local publicity and is already being talked about as a future NDP federal leader. A sophisticated downtown riding like Vancouver Centre has been pining for a Grade A MP who will become a national figure.
	08 07 03	C. Smith 24.82.170.255
Though I still think that Hedy Fry and the Liberals will manage to hold onto this seat the race got a lot closer today when Michael Byers announced that he is seeking the nomination for the NDP. The previous NDP candidate, Randall Garrison, stepped down due to personal commitments. I think that Byers will be a much stronger candidate than Garrison. Michael Byers is a fairly well regarded author and has the kind of background and education that should make him strong in any debates with Hedy Fry and Adrianne Carr of the Greens. If the Conservatives nominate a strong candidate (maybe Lorne Mayencourt) then this race could move into the too close to call category. If the Conservatives merely put a warm body forward then I think that Fry will manage to pull out a win, though the race could be close. It should be an exciting election in Vancouver Centre.
	08 07 02	74.15.66.158
Randall Garrison, has resigned as the NDP candidate and it looks like the NDP may have a high profile candidate in UBC prof and international law expert Michael Byers as he has expressed an interest in running. With Adrienne Carr running for the Greens and Byers for the NDP, Hedy Fry may see a real battle here.
	08 03 19	C. Smith 128.189.238.76
Realistically I think that this riding will still stay Liberal, but the by-election result in neighbouring Vancouver-Quadra could spell trouble for the Libs. The Green Party ran quite well in Quadra, picking up close to 14% of the vote. I have heard that Dan Grice was a good candidate for the Greens, but surely he cannot be considered nearly as strong a candidate as Adrian Carr is. Ms. Carr is about as high profile as you get in the Greens, and she has a relatively high profile in BC generally from her days as leader of the provincial Greens. I think that Carr could possibly pick up between 25-30% of the vote in Vancouver-Centre. The reason I think that Hedy Fry will still win though is that Carr will probably take votes from all three parties. I think that the NDP will bleed a lot of support, with lesser amounts coming from the Liberals and Conservatives.
	07 12 22	Left Coast 64.59.144.85
I'll give the edge to Hedy Fry here. The NDP, with their base in the West End and Fairview, could be competitive with a strong local candidate running (i.e. Jim Green or if Gregor Robertson decided to jump to federal politics) but Randall Garrison is from the Island and isn't well known. I can't see Adrienne Carr taking but she could have a big impact on the result depending on which party she takes support from (NDP or Liberals). This is an ultra-urban, socially progressive riding so the Tories have no chance here and will come in third or even fourth place.
	07 09 17	Nick J Boragina 74.13.125.185
There’s a good reason the green predictors are getting pounced on, they are way off. This riding has been a Liberal stronghold since 1993, and unlike Ontario (where saying that means nothing) this is a province with a competitive opposition in the 90’s. Unlike the 90’s with the Alliance, the CPC poses less, not more of a threat in this province (BC always gets things backwards it seems). This riding, however, should continue to vote Liberal for the time being, even if the Greens place second.
	07 08 11	binriso 156.34.216.161
Now that i think about it, Hedy Fry looks more and more like she is heading for a crushing victory. I dont see the Conservatives getting many more votes than they did in 06 unless they get a very good star candidate, although it still wouldnt matter because he or she wouldnt take enough votes to win and the NDP do not have a chance here now. Adrianne Carr is going to do well, maybe 3rd or 2nd in a very split vote but Hedy Fry will still be way ahead. Something like this: the Liberals way ahead, and the three other parties battling closely for 2nd place, which any of them could potentially get. LIB 47 NDP 20 CON 17 GRN+OTH 16 Give or take a few % for each party of course but still will be a big Liberal win.
	07 06 24	Tom 69.86.16.159
Not Green. Adrianne Carr is a strong candidate, certainly, but she should have stuck with the Sunshine Coast where her base was. I doubt the NDP will be seriously contesting this riding after Svend Robinson got humiliated last time (especially as their candidate is imported from Vancouver Island), so Carr does have that advantage, but the Greens would need to be around 13-15% nationally on election day to win here. That's possible, given the polls, but unlikely. Carr is probably going to come in second to Fry in a result resembling LNC. Hedy Fry (LIB) - 36.7% Adrianne Carr (GRN) - 24.8% Tony Fogarassy (CON) - 20.5% Randall Garrison (NDP) - 14.8%
	07 06 17	Glennagan Haskeron 74.14.144.178
Sounds like a repeat of the DemocraticSPACE forum. So many people and pollsters said that May would not place above 20%, She ended up second with 26%. That was in a weaker Green area, In the majority of the British Columbia ridings the Greens do very well. The Greens plan on running a serious campaign and really don't believe it'll take to much for Mrs. Carr to win here. Predictions: Green 29.00% Liberal 28.50% NDP 22.00 Conservative 20.00 Other: 2.00 (If theres no other options then you give the % points to who would most likely benefit from the Libertarian, Marijuana, or Christian Heritage parties.)
	07 06 10	binriso 156.34.233.62
It would probably take Jesus Christ to run for the greens so that they win here. Carr will do well for the Greens but definitely less than 15% and lots of those votes will come from the NDP while the Conservatives are a distant 3rd although they will probably move up to second. Hedy will win again maybe not as much but probably around 5000.
	07 05 07	British Columbian 143.161.248.25
If Hedy's re-election weren't already a sure thing, the NDP just handed this one to the Liberals by nominating Randall Garrison. Randall Garrison was a strong candidate in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca in the last two elections, but never managed to narrow the gap between himself and Keith Martin. Even as a twice-failed candidate in E-JdF, he would fare better by running against Keith again, but he doesn't have a chance of winning in either riding. The NDP is running fellow twice-failed candidate from Saanich-Gulf Islands there instead, making the NDP-machine's strategy look like a game of musical chairs. Having run twice in E-JdF, he not only lacks credibility as a candidate committed to the Vancouver Centre riding. Randall Garrison is a good speaker and a bright candidate, but he will not win Vancouver Centre. Like Garrison, Carr also lacks credibility as a local representative, having run as provincial leader in the Sunshine Coast. I cannot understand why May would make the alliance she did with the Liberal party. All she has done is told Green protest voters which major federal party they should vote for. I can't see Carr stealing many votes from the Liberals, or at least more than from the NDP. Carr is well known province-wide, and did a good job leading her party through the last couple provincial elections, but I can't see her winning the riding. The Conservatives are not a threat in Vancouver Centre, even if Mayencourt runs, which I doubt he will, especially if MLAs get a pay raise. (Who wants to quit right after getting a 29% pay increase?) But even if he does run, this isn't a two-way race like the provincial elections. In 2005 Mayencourt and Stevenson were competing for the political centre, and Mayencourt won by a hair. Federally, Hedy Fry already effectively represents the centre/centre-left of the political spectrum. Mayencourt is personally popular in the riding, but aligning himself with Harper and the federal Conservatives won't help him win votes from socially progressive fiscal conservatives who voted for him as a BC Liberal. Even when star candidates are running, most people still vote for the leader, and the Conservatives came a distant third last time. Furthermore, Mayencourt's provincial riding is only half Vancouver Centre. Mayencourt doesn't have much of a base to build on, and unless he wants out of provincial politics, he has a lot to lose and little to gain by running. Mayencourt has been an effective, innovative, and hard working MLA, but he won't win should he decide to run. Hedy Fry has managed to gain a bit more exposure by running for Liberal leader, and although she dropped out of the race to lead her party, I don't think that her campaign did anything to hurt her chances of being re-elected.
	07 05 04	Seamus 206.130.173.39
Too early to say, particularly if Lorne Mayencourt does indeed decide to take a run to unseat Fry. Garrison, the NDP candidate, will attract its traditional New Democrat vote in the West End. In '06, quite a few either stayed home or even voted for Fry, to stop Svend Robinson. Garrison will also hold False Creek, but will drop in Fairview and Yaletown. Carr, the former BC Green Party Leader, will likely double, if not triple the '06 vote. Carr will likely attract a healthy portion of Gregor Robertson's vote in Fairview. If Mayencourt runs, he will attract Fry votes in Yaletown, Coal Harbour and even Davie Village. My prediction (now, and if Mayencourt runs): FRY 32%; MAYENCOURT 30%; GARRISON 20%; CARR 17%: OTHER 1%. Mayencourt wins though if Dion continues to lack national traction on the question of leadership.
	07 04 22	Casselman 70.54.2.168
No need to pounce guys. These ideas are very rough. Calev, that could come true if the Greens are running a great candidate such as Ms. Carr. If Bob Rae can do it in Ontario, the Greens could certainly do the same thing here. The liberals aren't very popular at the moment and the NDP won't get another Svend. In my opinion it'll take a good campaign team and about 70,000-80,000 bucks however I'm excepting a with-in 10-15% loss or victory here.
	07 04 19	C. Smith 24.82.92.32
Casselman is dreaming if he thinks his prediction has any chance of coming true. You are predicting some major bleeding from the Liberal vote, not only to the Greens, but also to the Conservatives, who have been weak in this riding for years. In the 2000 election there was a significant Alliance vote, when the Alliance merged with the PCs the vote total for the two parties dropped significantly (with the NDP vote increasing). This looks to me like a lot of the Alliance vote was simply a protest vote that traditionally had gone NDP. I just do not see how the Liberals could suddenly lose so much of their vote share when nothing has really changed in the riding. Hedy Fry is still popular. The NDP has nominated a decent candidate, but certainly no one who will capture much media attention. If Hedy had no trouble whatsoever drubbing Svend Robinson I do not see her having much trouble with Adrianne Carr. I think that Carr might take some of the NDP vote, maybe a little bit of the NDP vote, perhaps putting her into third place slightly ahead of the Conservatives.
	07 04 19	Calev 208.114.135.81
What? How do you come up with those numbers....by that same logic I could say that the Conservatives are going to win because 49% of the Liberal vote will go to them... mostly the Liberal party is divided between the right and the left...same with the Conservatives. In the next election, most of the votes for the Green Party is going to come from the NDP and left wing part of the Liberals but that will not be the committed people. I also think that come election day the Greens will have only a slight improvement over last time because I think people will realise that the Greens are not going to be able to do anything. This election is going to be fought between the Libs and the Cons and people who dont want the Conservatives back in are not going to vote for the greens, I think that most of the green parties current support is all talk and no action. I think that the added support will come from the NDP because they do not have a chance to form government.
	07 04 17	Casselman 74.14.144.126
YES I do believe Ms. Carr could win this riding! The Conservatives will rise and take most of there support from Hedy's party, While the Greens scrape off alot of the NDP voters, a few liberals the conservatives forgot and any ?progressive? conservatives left. Ok to put my Math to work 13-14 from NDP to Green - 14-16 from liberal/conservative to Green - 7-8 from liberal to conservative and some to the NDP. that would leave 34.84% to the Greens, 27.80% for the liberals, 20.46% for the conservatives, and 15.67% for the NDP. Even if i'm 5% off the result would still put Greens ahead!
	07 04 16	Calev 208.114.135.81
With both the Liberals and the NDP down in BC and the Cons up, this could be a closer 3 way or even 4 way race.... If the stars aligned right (pun intended) it could be a CON pick up or second place finish, but for that unlikely scenario to occur the green would have to have a large rise. I think it is extremely unlikely but who knows what can happen. for now I will say Liberal hold
	07 04 15	Steve L. 24.84.150.65
with Svend Robinson winning LESS votes than the NDP candidate did in 2004, all bets are off. the Liberals can run a burning cross here and still win. i'll believe a non-Liberal victory when i see it.
	07 04 12	St Pat 24.82.185.148
Hedy's safe. Always was from 97 onwards. But she's slowly learning to toot her own horn more, which can only solidify her position. Had the Dippers stuck with Kennedy Stewart, they'd be getting much closer to challenging Hedy. But if Svend being handed the nomination wasn't a big cock-up, parachuting old party hack retread Randall Garrison sure is. Mayencourt running will be great entertainment value...nothing more. I think Carr, despite being widely loathed as an ‘SUV environmentalist’ here in Vancouver, will draw votes from the main three candidates. But BC is the ‘screw you’ voting capital of Canada!
	07 04 01	C. Smith 24.82.92.32
Though I think that Hedy will once again win the riding it could be much closer than the last two elections if Mayencourt runs for the Conservatives. Though Mayencourt would still likely finish in third place he could improve the Conservative totals enough to bring the NDP and Liberal vote quite close to each other. I think Mayencourt is being courted by the Conservatives not to win in Vancouver Centre, but rather to take enough of the vote so that maybe Hedy will lose the riding. If the Conservatives honestly think that Mayencourt could win the riding they are in serious need of a dose of electoral reality.
	07 03 31	A.S. 74.99.222.209
True, the increasing condo element doesn't help the NDP here--but it didn't stop Olivia Chow from finally taking Trinity-Spadina in '06; the bigger issue in Vanc Centre was that the once-infallible Svend Robinson turned out to be, with his police and psychiatric record, more of an unanticipated liability than an asset to the party (indeed, his candidacy might also have done proxy damage to ‘sure shot’ Ian Waddell nearby). Though after all these failed ‘serious’ efforts, NDP-flirting VC voters must indeed be wondering, what's the point, anymore--the best that can be said is that while VC's an NDP impossibility next to Trinity-Spadina, it's more possible than Toronto Centre; but now with the threat of the Conservatives going B.C. Liberal on us, we might just as well be headed back to the days of perennial pinko third place. Meanwhile, with quixotic national leadership aspirations behind her, the ‘more outrageous = more popular’ principle continues, it would seem, w/Queen Hedy. Hey, this is Vancouver Centre, after all. She's not embarrassing, she's *camp*...
	07 03 29	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 74.12.178.88
We always seem to be predicting Hedy's downfall (and with good reason) but what history has told us is that she's a survivor and there's no reason to think she won't win in 2007. The growing upscale communities pretty much ensures that the NDP don't have much of a chance any more, however the policies of the CPC don't sit well with many metropolitan voters. We can't see the CPC winning any seats within the big three cities (Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver).
	07 03 29	Buck 199.175.65.31
There is a liklihood that Lorne Mayencourt, the current BCLiberal MLA for Vancouver Burrard, will jump ship and run for the federal Conservatives in this riding. John Reynolds was dispatched to convince Lorne to give it a try. Its easy to see why this would be attractive to Lorne, as he has been marginalized within the BCLiberals and has no hope of ever making cabinet. Also, he won this riding by only 11 votes in the last provincial election against a pretty week ndp candidate. But why would the Conservatives want Lorne? My guess is that they won't need to invest much in him as he's driven to get himself as much media attention as possible AND as a gay man, he will promote the centrist image that the Tories are trying to fool us all with. Lorne will not win though so the Conservatives will benefit from him running but they'll avoid the well known problems that come with come with this guy. Hedy will take the riding - and we need her to help keep some of the centre-left perspective in the Grits who, after this recent Tory budget, look further right than the Conservatives.
	07 03 28	King of Kensington 74.98.171.205
Hedy Fry has certainly fended off any threat from the NDP here in this riding and the Conservatives have no chance of winning here. The NDP has nominated Randall Garrison, who ran in Esquimalt before and only until very recently supported the Afghan mission - hardly something to inspire soft NDPers. I've heard Lorne Mayencourt was interested in the Conservative nomination here but I don't know why he'd make a suicide run, they will almost certainly come in a distant third place. Meanwhile Adrienne Carr is running for the Greens who will serve as a wild card - will she draw more from Liberal or NDP voters?
	07 03 24	24.84.214.224
Probably another Liberal win. This is a fast changing riding with the amount of development that is going on. Depending on who the Conservative candidate is they may have a slim chance. The NDP may be a factor in the riding
	07 03 21	M. Lunn 74.99.130.109
The riding I voted in 2006. The NDP had a shot at winning in 2004, but with most of the growth being upscale condominums in Yaletown and Coal Harbour, their window to win this has closed and I expect Hedy Fry to win again easily.