Prediction Changed
4:26 PM 24/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Vancouver Centre
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Byers, Michael
Carr, Adriane
Clarke, John
Fry, Hedy
Hill, Michael
Mayencourt, Lorne

Hon. Hedy Fry

2006 Result:
Hedy Fry **
Svend Robinson
Tony Fogarassy
Jared Evans
John Clarke
Heathcliff Dionysus Campbell
Joe Pal

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

08 10 12 heliox
Lorne Mayencourt does not stand a chance in this riding. He is a polarizing candidate who is inconsistent in his message. How a gay man can run for the conservative party is unfathomable to me. From what I am hearing in the west end, no one is voting for this man. I also think that there is still a fear of Harper gaining majority and Hedy is the most comfortable vote here to prevent that from happening. I like Adrian Carr but the green party is just not strong enough yet. And I was underwhelmed by the NDP's candidate. And I was ready to move my vote from Liberal, but I feel like I have little choice.
I personally do not want Stephan Dion at the helm, but Hedy's win will aid in preventing a majority for Harper.
08 10 11 dls
Im surprised there hasnt been a poll done of this riding considering the national interest. Recent polls have Liberal support both nationally and in BC holding steady, that and the fact that Hedy Fry always seems to win no matter what, ill say the number wont be all that different to last election.
08 10 10 VanToria
‘C’... what makes you think people in the Fairview slopes will vote Liberal? They might vote conservative... and don't forget, the Vancouver-Fairview riding was won by the Provinvial NDP in 2005. Yaletown voters are just as likey to vote for Mayencourt, his strong provincial turf, as they are Fry. I don't think her personal popularity will be enough to carry her over Dion's unpopularity in the riding. Byers will benefit from the split. Carr remains an also ran. Everyone knows her because she's run so many times around the province... and LOST.
08 10 09 C
You people have got to be kidding. This is the safest Liberal seat in BC - the Fairview slopes will vote Liberal to keep the NDP out, and the West End will do so to keep the Conservatives out (especially in this election). She's been an activist MP and people in Centre love that. She may not pull off the 44% she got in the year her party lost Federally (yes, really) but Lorne has a long way to go to take her on. The NDP have a ceiling in this riding because Coal Harbour, Yaletown and Fairview (a majority of the riding) will not vote for them.
08 10 09 Seth
Those of you predicting a Conservative win are crazy. There were 218 ballot boxes in Vancouver Centre in 2006, from Yaletown to Stanley Park to False Creek South as far as Shaughnessy. Do you know how many of those boxes came out with the Conservative on top? Precisely zero.
And if you think Mayencourt has something going for him here, think again. He won provincially by the skin of his teeth last time. The #1 reason he got elected was not his personality or his BC Liberal affiliation but because he was NOT the BC NDP. Many, if not most, of his past supporters vote Liberal federally and they are not going to abandon Fry to vote for him now.
Mayencourt will get fewer votes than any Conservative candidate has in the last three elections. He will come in fourth.
What makes this race interesting is not who will win. Hedy Fry will win again. That's a given. What's interesting is the race between Carr and Byers for 2nd/3rd place.
08 10 09 Joshua Zuckerman
I predict Hedy Fry of the Liberals will hold on here. If she didn't go down in 2006 when the Conservatives won a minority, she'll probably hang on in 2008 if they are only going to win another minority.
There are high-profile candidates running against her, but is it really that different than in the past? I think there needs to be a bigger event that takes place in order for Hedy Fry to lose.
Democratic Space has Hedy Fry ahead by a number of points right now, so I'm not sure if the other parties are going to split the vote as much as some people say here.
08 10 08 Brent
I think its time to put this one into the TCTC column, guys. The NDP and Conservatives are running higher than last election here, whilst the Libs are lower, especially in and around Vancouver city.
With a relatively stronger CON, Green and NDP candidates, all three will siphon off votes from the Libs, especially among younger and LBGT voters. This may be enough for the second place NDP to slip past Ms. Fry...
08 10 08
Former liberal Mayencourt will split up Fry's vote and Michael will take the riding.
08 10 04 Burt
Carr is overrated as usual. She won't be much a factor, just like she has never come nowhere near winning any other election despite all the attention she gets. Meanwhile, Mayencourt will seriously cut into Fry's vote. He was an extremely hard-working and visible constituency MLA. With Byers as a candidate, the NDP's vote will increase just enough to slip ahead of the Fry/Mayencourt split.
08 10 03 Mike
I think Mayencourt is going to come through here. For the better part of history, this riding goes with the Government. Nobody believes that the Liberals will get elected this time around and much of Hedy's support will bleed over to Mayencourt. I beleive Byers will come second and there will be one stunned Hedy on election night.
You saw it here first:
Mayencourt = 30%
Byers = 27%
Fry = 26%
Carr = 16%
08 10 02 Steve G
This is likely to be one of the few seats that the Liberals will retain in B.C. Fry has consistently defeated star candidates in the past. The notable difference this time is that her party will clearly not form the next government and therefore she is most vulnerable to Lorne Mayencourt in this bellwether riding. The riding has not been NDP/CCF since 1949, and this time the improving Green vote will drain NDP support. However, the Greenswill probably finish fourth and Carr should consider it a major victory if she manages to eke out a third-place finish.
08 10 01 Winds of Change
Hedy is going down. Her support is completely invisible in the West End, which has traditionally been Liberal territory with some pockets of strong NDP support. Mayencourt is not, as Jeffrey Simpson said today, a ‘popular’ MLA. He is widely loathed for his failure to protect renters (80% of the WE, smaller proportions in other parts of the riding) from a heavily landlord-favourable Tenant Protection Act. Byers is making a fool of himself regularly in debates across the riding.
It is going to be close, but I say this riding is ready to go for Adriane Carr with Byers coming second and a race for the bottom between Hedy and Mayencourt. The strong Liberal vote in VC is only half-hearted. It masks a strong contingent of disenfranchised Progressive Conservatives who will, for the first time in 2 decades, have a viable option offering progressive social policy and fiscal conservatism in the form of productivity-focused tax reform: the Greens. NDP support in places like Kits is vulnerable because it is strongly environmental and the NDP's ‘target big polluters’ message is falling flat as giving everyone permission to make change ‘someone else's problem’.
Most helpful to the Carr campaign is that almost everyone who meets Adriane Carr comes away saying the same thing -- she's real, she's positive and she's a breath of fresh air. They want someone like her in Ottawa. Byers, on the other hand, has been very negative.
08 09 30 splinterjete
with the federal greens in b.c. tripling their already significant vote totals from the last election according to recent polls, there are a few b.c. ridings that they can target to ensure they have representation in the next parliament. whereas may's quest to knock of mackay is futile but quiotic, carr's chances in vancouver centre more likely and getting more likely by the minute as the liberal vote tanks. this riding, alongside saanich-gulf islands, will deliver the first 2 elected green MPs in canada.
08 09 29 R.D.
A perfect storm - plus unpopular Dion - dooms Liberals
Globe and Mail, September 25, 2008
VANCOUVER -- This may be the election Hedy Fry finally falls.
The indomitable Vancouver Centre Liberal MP has vanquished every foe she's faced since her inaugural election in 1993, a debut in which she took down no less than the sitting prime minister. But these are different times for the Liberals, especially in British Columbia, where the party's popularity has hit a historic low. The Liberals won eight seats in B.C. in the last election. They could lose them all this time around.
Even six months ago that would have seemed unfathomable.
A declining Liberal, with strong Tory and Green candidates, means Byers slips up the middle.
08 09 27 Flatland Man
For the Green's this is their strongest riding, with (apart from May) their strongest candidate in Adriane Carr. Expect the greens to pour almost all of their available resources and energy into this campaign, Carr is immensely popular and respected. As improbably as it may seem Carr could and should squeak out a slight victory with the Green's momentum, and May's upcoming appearance in the debates.
08 09 26 ToJo
Over the past week various polls national polls and local B.C. polls have shown that the Liberal Party is struggling mightily. And many pundits have openly speculated that the Liberal Party including the resilient Ms. Fry might be shut out in B.C. altogether. She has survived challengers before, however based solely on the poll numbers and the strength of the Conservative and NDP challengers, I think this should be moved to the TCTC for the time being.
08 09 25 ABC Green
Given the highly exposed blunder of Bryer in going off policy from NDP platform, Fry's tired tenure and Meyencourt's flip-flopping, Deputy Leader Carr, has a really good chance to pull ahead here once constituents hear what Elizabeth has to say her piece at the Televised Debate. This'll be one to watch.
08 09 24 marty
oh dear lord, please give us a Mayencourt victory!!
It will it drive the lefties absolutely nuts, sending them into fits of of rage, from the parlours of Davie to the pot dens of Commercial Drive!
MP Mayencourt, in the Conservative caucus?!?! Sitting next to dirt under fingernails guy? With the rednecks of the hinterlands that stretch from Langley to Oxford! Priceless.
Think of this victory! Hedy the shrill, finally stilled. Sanctimonious Michael Byers, back in the ivory tower. Adrienne Carr, can still run for parks board. And Lorne will probably last longer than Garth Turner, but less than Peschisolido, Brison, Stronach, or Casey, in the Conservative caucus room. Go Lorne!
08 09 23 Zinc Alloy
While I agree with Phil that this riding should at the very least too close to call, I don’t for a moment see it going to Lorne Mayencourt. A victory by Hedy Fry is possible, but I would say it is the NDP who are the must likely to triumph.
To get an accurate picture of the party’s chances one must look beyond Svend Robinson’s 2006 campaign, which coming 16 months after he pleaded guilty to theft, was more than controversial. Note that in that election Fry percentage of the vote increased by 3.5 % of the vote, while the NDP lost 3.5%. This is no coincidence. No, it is the 2004 election, in which Kennedy Stewart fell 4200 votes short of taking the seat, that provides the best indication. Micheal Byers is, if anything, an even stronger candidate than Stewart.
That said, it is not Byers, but Mayencourt who will provide the most damage to Fry. The first strong Conservative to run in this riding, Mayencourt will obviously attract the 11684 who voted for Tony Fogarassy in the previous election, but will not win a single vote from the NDP. He will, however, take much from Fry, who for so long has had such a hold on the rather significant gay vote. How much of the that vote Mayencourt will capture is difficult to determine. Most certainly, many will be put off by perceived attitudes of the Conservatives toward the LGBT community. And let’s not discount the stench created by David Emerson that continues to drift over from Vancouver-Kingsway.
Mayencourt’s electoral record is also worthy of note. While the boundaries aren’t identical, it should be noted that in 2005 he won Vancouver-Burrard – against a BC NDP candidate - by a mere eleven votes. That election was a two party race – this time, in Vancouver Centre, four parties are in play. In a province in which a significant percentage of people vote ABNDP, Mayencourt provides an alternative to Fry.
The wild card here is Carr. While the Greens have never reached 6.8% of the vote (and lost almost a full percent in the last election), her presence means that they may reach double digits. The real question is from whom will she take these votes. I suggest that both Fry and Byers will suffer, both to Mayencourt’s advantage… but it will not be enough for the former BC Liberal. At the very least, he’ll have to increase the Conservative vote by 50%. Not gonna happen.
08 09 23 B Town
This is a tough one for sure. There are now four star candidates. Each with their own connection to the riding and potential strategies in the voter pool. At the very least this riding is obviously too close to call.
Hedy Fry is a political entity for a reason, she is not to be discounted, but she is not invulnerable. With four high profile candidates each pulling from a different section of Liberal supporters in Vancouver Centre. It's not just hers to lose, but Fry's to win again.
The entrance of Lorne Mayencourt into the race as a Conservative changes the game. While I don't think the Davie village is going to side with him (nor will many of the conservative cabinet) and give him some of Hedy's powerful 'Gay Vote', I think his name recognition as a member of the provincial legislature will pull soft c Liberal support from Hedy to him. That could pull Conservative numbers into contention.
Adrian Carr as former Leader of the Provincial Green Party was able to pull 27% 6500 votes in her best showing in the 2001 provincial election, still managing a third place finish. This federal riding is roughly double the size of that provincial one. I feel the best she could pull in this race would be 13000 votes or about 25%. She is more likely to top out under 20%, taking from the Liberals and New Democrats evenly. She will be a spoiler for one candidate or another, but I don't feel she will walk away from this with a seat in Parliament.
Michael Byers is the strongest New Democrat light to come to Vancouver Centre since Kennedy Stewart. One of his biggest benefits will be that he is the only candidate that is fresh in this cycle. Carr, Fry, and Mayencourt are known factors, but they have been around long enough painted with a 'politics as usual' brush. Byers adds international policy credibility to the NDP, often seen as the party's weak point. If he gets out there with a good campaign that can hold its numbers from the greens, or even pull from Hedy, he will come out on top. If his campaign maintains its momentum I feel that will be the outcome. The better Mayencourt does the better Byers will do, if he can place himself as the best strategic vote.
Using the 2004 Election results which were the closest in a recent race. Using it I have come out with some general predictions.
Total 51500 Votes
LIB 21000 40% --> -5% CON, -5% GRN, -2% NDP
08 09 23 King of Kensington
I wonder why Lorne Mayencourt decided to end his political career. I can say with total confidence that Mayencourt, no matter well known he is, will not win this riding. Yes he won provincially, but only very very narrowly, and that was with about half of the federal Liberal vote going his way. That will not be happening here. Nor will the gay community be supportive of Mayencourt - a recent study of gay voters in Canada by Prof. Barry Kay showed it was roughly evenly split last time between the Liberals and NDP with the Conservatives well under 10%. Hedy Fry however will be seeing votes bleeding to the NDP, Greens and Tories. In the end, I still see it as a race between Hedy Fry and Michael Byers - keep in mind that Byers is very high profile and the ‘ring thing’ depressed the NDP vote last time. It will be one of the most interesting races in the country to watch.
08 09 23 david m.
for me, this is one of the most interesting races in the country.
for those who don't know, mayencourt is one of vancouver's most known politicians. he wrote the safe streets and safe schools acts, and he's a fairly high profile mla as far as vancouver-burrard goes (a provincial district that encompasses the near totality of vancouver centre). all told, he's an odd duck: a backbencher widely considered a lightweight, he's still said to be one of campbell's favourites. the safe streets act was applauded in the suburbs and westside of vancouver, but widely panned in his own riding (which he held onto by only 14 votes last time around). he once had an actual online fan club, but he was also once chased down the road by homeless people, and once assaulted while trying to perform a citizen's arrest on a homeless man who was breaking the law that he mayencourt had himself written. all told, a polarizing, narcissistic and plain strange individual. which is why he's such a compelling fit for the riding (and of course, hedy fry shares many of the same characteristics). normally the conservative shouldn't have any shot whatever in this riding, but mayencourt could well do it, with a little help from the ndp, the greens and the national campaign. on the first, michael byers, the ndp candidate, contrary to media reports, is a virtual unknown to those not keenly interested in precisely his domain of expertise (canadian foreign policy). but for some reason, the media is treating him like a star far more than the equivalently high profile scholar 2004 ndp candidate kennedy stewart. partly, i believe it's because of a sense of equivalence, 4 stars running in the riding makes for great news. partly, i believe that it's because byers acquits himself so well in public events and interviews, he just seems like an mp. and finally, partly i believe it's because lots of folks in the media do know him, on a personal level and a professional level (don't forget, this guy's a journalist too, with articles appearing in the vancouver sun and the toronto star, among others). at any rate, he's been receiving the credible, serious media treatment necessary for him to be seen as a credible, serious candidate to support the ndp national campaign, and a safe alternative to the media-chasing hedy and lorne. then there's adrienne carr. to people in the know, she's the well-meaning but half-baked, perpetual candidate, the former provincial green party leader most famous for bursting into tears when stv was chosen over mmp by the bc citizens' assembly for the electoral reform referendum question. to those less informed, she's a name they know vaguely, giving the greens a bit of a boost in support of the green national campaign. finally, there's the question of the national campaigns themselves. usually, urban ridings are far more about the national campaign than they are about the candidate, and despite appearances and recent history (and coventional wisdom), i'd wager that vote results in vancouver centre are INDEED determined far more by cognitive partisanship and the national campaign than they are to candidate. ergo, the harper/dion/layton/may contest will have a significant effect on the result here. combine all these factors with mayencourt's being the first credible homosexual man to challenge fry in canada's gayest riding (svend was svend); the contined demographic changes in coal harbour, yaletown and false creek north (not to mention seymour and ‘triangle west’) that are making the area a lot more conservative; hedy fatigue; strategic voting inspired by mayencourt's credibility; the strange marc emery/dana larsen/kirk tousaw ndp stoner scandal; and the financial parity of the four parties in this riding... and all in all, it's a fascinating race to watch. my opinion is that hedy must still be heavily favored on the demographics and the intangibles (a 5 term incumbent!), but this could provide a real surprise should mayencourt siphon off enough liberal votes to put byers through, or should byers and may take enough of hedy's support to push mayencourt a few hundred votes ahead.
08 09 22 Seth
Lorne Mayencourt will NOT win here. He won't attract any votes from people who previously voted NDP or Green. Any increased Tory votes will be from previous Hedy Fry supporters. Do the math: Even if half of Hedy Fry's supporters in the last election desert her now, with 50% of those going Tory, 30% going NDP, and 20% going green, it would result in an NDP win. The Greens have a better chance here than Lorne Mayencourt.
08 09 22 Two Cents
I think Mayencourt is in line to pull off one of the biggest surprises of the entire election. Bigger even that in the Quadra by-lection. Mayencourt will be the beneficiary of a split between the Libs, Greens and NDP. In the past Hedy Fry could depend on NDP (and Green - to the extent there were any) votes to roll over all opponents. But this time, despite her past ‘service’ to the riding, there is simply little interest in Stephane Dion. Voters are leaving teh Liberals in droves to go to the Greens and NDP. But it is the Tories who will benefit.
08 09 19 Phil
Mayencourt will take this riding. He's got some great billboards up already. I even see people putting his lawn sign in their condo windows.
Vancouver Centre has gone with the government for the better part of the last 50 years. The voters here want someone at the table with the Prime Minister. They know that Dion will never be the PM and will vote Mayencourt to get a voice in Ottawa.
At the very least it should be too close to call.
08 09 19 binriso
Hedy Fry always seems to pull through, so shell probably do it once again in spite of the strong competition.
08 09 18 Bernard
The Liberal fortunes are at their worst in BC since 1988. Latest regional polling puts them at about 22% of the vote.
If the NDP were doing much better in BC, I would predict the NDP would take this, but the NDP numbers are also down in BC.
Some polling has shown where the new Green votes are coming from. 20% each from the Liberals and NDP, 40% new voters and 10% from the Conservatives.
Adrian Carr is the Green ‘star’ running in this riding.
Taking these considerations into account I see the following result:
Liberals - 30.7%
Conservatives - 25%
Greens - 22.8%
NDP - 21.5%
Hedy Fry will win because all the other parties think the riding is in play and no one will know how to vote strategically to have an impact.
08 09 17 Green Dreaming
I really disagree with any prediction that says the Greens will be a factor. In the 2005 provincial election the Greens only got 13% of the vote compared to 42% and 42% for the BC Liberals and NDP in the Vancouver Burrard riding. BC Liberal (at the time) Lorne Mayencourt won by 11 votes. Next door in Vancouver Fairview, the Greens only got 8% of the vote. Adriane Carr in the same election only won 26% of the vote in her greenier riding of Powell River Sunshine Coast and lost to the NDP who got 43% of the vote.
08 09 17 Seth
I was calling this for the Liberals until I saw the latest Angus Reid poll. It has the Green Party at 26% of support in BC. That puts them ahead of both the NDP and the Liberals. You can bet that all of that Green support is not coming from Abbotsford or Prince George-Peace River. It's concentrated in ridings like Vancouver Centre. Elizabeth May is an excellent speaker and she should do very well in the TV debates. If so, expect the Greens to surge even further here and take this seat.
08 09 17 Marco Ricci
I think the NDP's best chance to win this riding may have been in 2004 with Kennedy Stewart - that year Hedy Fry won by about 4,000 votes. In 2006 when Hedy Fry ran against Svend Robinson, even though the Conservatives won the election, she won by about 9,000 votes - double what she had in 2004. This may be because Robinson had been damaged bv the ring theft scandal, but it may indicate that the NDP's best chance to win was in 2004.
Someone below said that Dion's numbers are ‘tanking’ in BC, but The Strategic Council poll this week showed Dion actually went up a bit after his visit to BC last week. Anyway, I think that unless the Liberal vote goes way down in Vancouver that Hedy Fry will win again.
08 09 16 Trev
It's between Mayenourt and Carr. Carr has been campaigning hard for many years. She will take a lot of votes from the NDP and Liberals. Ultimately, I think Mayencourt will come up the middle and Vancouver centre will once again get a voice in government.
08 09 16 VanToria
I'm standing by my NDP prediciton and adding some more info. I live and Work in Vancouver Centre. In the last week I have seen Micheal Byers at least 5 times greeting commuters. Mayencourt's campaign office on Granville was set up this weekend and it is quite the spectacle. I actually laughed when I saw it... only something Mayencourt would do. The whole building is painted Tory blue with a huge Conservative logo on it. Signs everywhere. That guy is determined and he's only going to steal Liberal votes. The split will favour Byers.
08 09 14 ghoris
I think this riding needs to be listed as Too Close to Call. The Liberals are tanking in BC, but that being said, even if they got reduced to just two seats this would be one of them (the other being Vancouver South). I have lived here for three election cycles and still have yet to find one person who has anything positive to say about Hedy Fry. The Greens and Conservatives mounting real challenges for the first time since Fry won the seat in 1993. They won't do well enough to win, but they just might draw enough of the vote to let the NDP slip past Fry. This will be a four-way race that someone could win with 30% of the vote, and it's not at all clear right now that it will be Fry. Unless we see a credible riding poll that puts her well out in front, colour this one TCTC.
08 09 11 Bernard von Schulmann
After decades of thinking that they can take this riding and not winning, the NDP finally looks to be on the cusp of winning.
Lorne Maynecourt will cut strongly into Hedy Fry's support.
08 09 11 Tom W.
With two marginally high profile candidates running against Dr. Fry, I think this is too close to call until we see some polling.
08 09 11 King of Kensington
I wonder why Lorne Mayencourt decided to commit political suicide? He may pull a few extra votes but this is a very urban, progressive riding where the Conservative brand is toxic.
Michael Byers should fare much better than Svend Robinson and better than the NDP candidate in '04 as well. Hedy Fry is in for the fight of her life (esp. if the Greens pull primarily from the Liberals as they did in the Quadra byelection).
08 09 10 VanToria
Lorne is in and already stirring up trouble. Hedy and Ujjal were already on the attack over insite. Also his pro BC Liberal stance on Carbon Tax doesn't jive with the Conservative anti carbon tax position. He's going to get a lot of attention and get into all sorts of scraps with Hedy. Byers will stay out of the fray and probably steal it. I don't think Carr is an issue in this one. She has been on the ballot all over this province and in the 2005 Provincial Leader's debate. She doesn't have a record of making much of a dent.
08 09 09 HK
The progressives in this riding outnumber the conservatives by a long-shot, and when the progressives sniff a threat from the Conservatives, as they doubtless do in this election, they line up behind Hedy and vote strategically. When I lived in this riding, I knew people who had never voted before in their lives who signed up to vote for Hedy when the Conservative/Rerform/Alliance machine started to gain momentum. Hedy has huge personal popularity in the riding, especially in the gay community. If she could beat Svend Robinson last go 'round, she can definitely beat Mayencourt.
08 09 05 C. Smith
With Lorne Mayencourt almost certain to run now for the Conservatives I think that this riding is too close to call. While Mayencourt may not do very well at all, I think he is one of the stronger candidates that the Conservatives could go with. If Mayencourt manages to pick up 2-5%, and Adrianne Carr picks up 2-5% then suddenly the NDP is within striking distance of the Liberals. The question is where does Mayencourt's and Carr's support come from? I think that the Greens pull some votes from all the other parties, but the Conservatives are likely to pull mostly former Liberal votes, especially with a known, and queer candidate in Lorne Mayencourt.
With all that said, Hedy Fry should never be underestimated. While I think she has been a relatively ineffective MP, she has managed to easily win every election since 1993. It should be a very interesting race.
08 09 05 Matt Wadsworth
This has quickly become a seriously competitive seat. With Mayencourt, Byers, Carr and Fry all known quantities and comparatively strong candidates with decent followings, this has the potential to become a very tight race. One has to give Dr. Fry the edge given her track record and popularity in the riding. But, it's safe to assume that the candidates for the other three parties stand to increase their party's support (at the very least, put up quite a fight) - like I say, I'm leaning to a Fry hold, but I wouldn't put money on it at this point. This adds up to TCTC.
08 09 01 Warren
I predict Michael Byers.
Whoever nominated by the conservatives is bound to finish in the third place. But there are so many factors playing in this riding. But I believe the most important factor playing in this riding will be the votes that liberals decide to either throw away or throw to conservatives while NDP will add votes from Svend Robinson's last run for obvious reasons.
If as some suggested it is Lorne Mayencourt, that will mean those voting based on LBGT issues will not vote blindly for Hedy Fry. And Hedy Fry will simply lose the foreign policy arguments to Harper proxy or Michael Bryers. And people here especially have overlooked the impact of Greg Roberson running for the mayor. Let us not forget that the NDP will be in full force to campaign and neither VV nor COPE will endorse Hedy Fry. But again, the key factor will be on the shift of liberal votes. Will Hedy Fry and Dion motivate enough votes out to keep Hedy in power? The liberal votes in Vancouver-Quadra election was reduced by 10% and I also expect that is the margin that Hedy Fry will lose next election. This will be very close but I predict this will be the only NDP gain in Vancouver.
08 08 31
the latest angus reid poll in BC puts the cpc out front with 33%, followed by the NDP at 25%, the greens at 20% and the liberals at 19%. with numbers like those and 3 very good candidates(byers,carr and mayencourt) running against hedy fry i think she finally falls. probably to the NDP but the greens and to a lesser extent the cpc have shots as well.
08 08 26 Stevo
Left Coast's justifications for calling this an NDP pickup (not even tossup, but a full-on pickup even before an election has been called) are extraordinarily shallow.
How close did the NDP come in 2006? Oh yes, that's right, a whopping 9000 votes, with a star candidate no less. Hedy Fry is a national embarrassment? She was a national embarrassment in 2000, and that hasn't stopped from winning 3 times in the 8 years that have elapsed since then.
No, V-C just isn't in the offing for the NDP. Sorry.
08 08 25
This won't be the first time the Vancouver Centre Liberals defeat a political science professor from UBC...
08 08 17 Left Coast
The riding's demographics benefit the Liberals, but the NDP has come close in the past, including in 2004. However Hedy Fry is a bit of a national embarrassment and the NDP has a first-class candidate in Michael Byers. This is the best chance the NDP has had to take the riding in years.
08 07 09 DL
Michael Byers will almost certainly be the NDP candidate here. He is getting a ton of local publicity and is already being talked about as a future NDP federal leader. A sophisticated downtown riding like Vancouver Centre has been pining for a Grade A MP who will become a national figure.
08 07 03 C. Smith
Though I still think that Hedy Fry and the Liberals will manage to hold onto this seat the race got a lot closer today when Michael Byers announced that he is seeking the nomination for the NDP. The previous NDP candidate, Randall Garrison, stepped down due to personal commitments. I think that Byers will be a much stronger candidate than Garrison.
Michael Byers is a fairly well regarded author and has the kind of background and education that should make him strong in any debates with Hedy Fry and Adrianne Carr of the Greens.
If the Conservatives nominate a strong candidate (maybe Lorne Mayencourt) then this race could move into the too close to call category. If the Conservatives merely put a warm body forward then I think that Fry will manage to pull out a win, though the race could be close. It should be an exciting election in Vancouver Centre.
08 07 02
Randall Garrison, has resigned as the NDP candidate and it looks like the NDP may have a high profile candidate in UBC prof and international law expert Michael Byers as he has expressed an interest in running. With Adrienne Carr running for the Greens and Byers for the NDP, Hedy Fry may see a real battle here.
08 03 19 C. Smith
Realistically I think that this riding will still stay Liberal, but the by-election result in neighbouring Vancouver-Quadra could spell trouble for the Libs. The Green Party ran quite well in Quadra, picking up close to 14% of the vote. I have heard that Dan Grice was a good candidate for the Greens, but surely he cannot be considered nearly as strong a candidate as Adrian Carr is. Ms. Carr is about as high profile as you get in the Greens, and she has a relatively high profile in BC generally from her days as leader of the provincial Greens.
I think that Carr could possibly pick up between 25-30% of the vote in Vancouver-Centre. The reason I think that Hedy Fry will still win though is that Carr will probably take votes from all three parties. I think that the NDP will bleed a lot of support, with lesser amounts coming from the Liberals and Conservatives.
07 12 22 Left Coast
I'll give the edge to Hedy Fry here. The NDP, with their base in the West End and Fairview, could be competitive with a strong local candidate running (i.e. Jim Green or if Gregor Robertson decided to jump to federal politics) but Randall Garrison is from the Island and isn't well known. I can't see Adrienne Carr taking but she could have a big impact on the result depending on which party she takes support from (NDP or Liberals). This is an ultra-urban, socially progressive riding so the Tories have no chance here and will come in third or even fourth place.
07 09 17 Nick J Boragina
There’s a good reason the green predictors are getting pounced on, they are way off. This riding has been a Liberal stronghold since 1993, and unlike Ontario (where saying that means nothing) this is a province with a competitive opposition in the 90’s. Unlike the 90’s with the Alliance, the CPC poses less, not more of a threat in this province (BC always gets things backwards it seems). This riding, however, should continue to vote Liberal for the time being, even if the Greens place second.
07 08 11 binriso
Now that i think about it, Hedy Fry looks more and more like she is heading for a crushing victory. I dont see the Conservatives getting many more votes than they did in 06 unless they get a very good star candidate, although it still wouldnt matter because he or she wouldnt take enough votes to win and the NDP do not have a chance here now. Adrianne Carr is going to do well, maybe 3rd or 2nd in a very split vote but Hedy Fry will still be way ahead. Something like this: the Liberals way ahead, and the three other parties battling closely for 2nd place, which any of them could potentially get.
LIB 47
NDP 20
CON 17
Give or take a few % for each party of course but still will be a big Liberal win.
07 06 24 Tom
Not Green. Adrianne Carr is a strong candidate, certainly, but she should have stuck with the Sunshine Coast where her base was. I doubt the NDP will be seriously contesting this riding after Svend Robinson got humiliated last time (especially as their candidate is imported from Vancouver Island), so Carr does have that advantage, but the Greens would need to be around 13-15% nationally on election day to win here. That's possible, given the polls, but unlikely. Carr is probably going to come in second to Fry in a result resembling LNC.
Hedy Fry (LIB) - 36.7%
Adrianne Carr (GRN) - 24.8%
Tony Fogarassy (CON) - 20.5%
Randall Garrison (NDP) - 14.8%
07 06 17 Glennagan Haskeron
Sounds like a repeat of the DemocraticSPACE forum. So many people and pollsters said that May would not place above 20%, She ended up second with 26%. That was in a weaker Green area, In the majority of the British Columbia ridings the Greens do very well. The Greens plan on running a serious campaign and really don't believe it'll take to much for Mrs. Carr to win here.
Predictions: Green 29.00% Liberal 28.50% NDP 22.00 Conservative 20.00 Other: 2.00 (If theres no other options then you give the % points to who would most likely benefit from the Libertarian, Marijuana, or Christian Heritage parties.)
07 06 10 binriso
It would probably take Jesus Christ to run for the greens so that they win here. Carr will do well for the Greens but definitely less than 15% and lots of those votes will come from the NDP while the Conservatives are a distant 3rd although they will probably move up to second.
Hedy will win again maybe not as much but probably around 5000.
07 05 07 British Columbian
If Hedy's re-election weren't already a sure thing, the NDP just handed this one to the Liberals by nominating Randall Garrison. Randall Garrison was a strong candidate in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca in the last two elections, but never managed to narrow the gap between himself and Keith Martin. Even as a twice-failed candidate in E-JdF, he would fare better by running against Keith again, but he doesn't have a chance of winning in either riding. The NDP is running fellow twice-failed candidate from Saanich-Gulf Islands there instead, making the NDP-machine's strategy look like a game of musical chairs. Having run twice in E-JdF, he not only lacks credibility as a candidate committed to the Vancouver Centre riding. Randall Garrison is a good speaker and a bright candidate, but he will not win Vancouver Centre.
Like Garrison, Carr also lacks credibility as a local representative, having run as provincial leader in the Sunshine Coast. I cannot understand why May would make the alliance she did with the Liberal party. All she has done is told Green protest voters which major federal party they should vote for. I can't see Carr stealing many votes from the Liberals, or at least more than from the NDP. Carr is well known province-wide, and did a good job leading her party through the last couple provincial elections, but I can't see her winning the riding.
The Conservatives are not a threat in Vancouver Centre, even if Mayencourt runs, which I doubt he will, especially if MLAs get a pay raise. (Who wants to quit right after getting a 29% pay increase?) But even if he does run, this isn't a two-way race like the provincial elections. In 2005 Mayencourt and Stevenson were competing for the political centre, and Mayencourt won by a hair. Federally, Hedy Fry already effectively represents the centre/centre-left of the political spectrum. Mayencourt is personally popular in the riding, but aligning himself with Harper and the federal Conservatives won't help him win votes from socially progressive fiscal conservatives who voted for him as a BC Liberal. Even when star candidates are running, most people still vote for the leader, and the Conservatives came a distant third last time. Furthermore, Mayencourt's provincial riding is only half Vancouver Centre. Mayencourt doesn't have much of a base to build on, and unless he wants out of provincial politics, he has a lot to lose and little to gain by running. Mayencourt has been an effective, innovative, and hard working MLA, but he won't win should he decide to run.
Hedy Fry has managed to gain a bit more exposure by running for Liberal leader, and although she dropped out of the race to lead her party, I don't think that her campaign did anything to hurt her chances of being re-elected.
07 05 04 Seamus
Too early to say, particularly if Lorne Mayencourt does indeed decide to take a run to unseat Fry. Garrison, the NDP candidate, will attract its traditional New Democrat vote in the West End. In '06, quite a few either stayed home or even voted for Fry, to stop Svend Robinson. Garrison will also hold False Creek, but will drop in Fairview and Yaletown. Carr, the former BC Green Party Leader, will likely double, if not triple the '06 vote. Carr will likely attract a healthy portion of Gregor Robertson's vote in Fairview. If Mayencourt runs, he will attract Fry votes in Yaletown, Coal Harbour and even Davie Village. My prediction (now, and if Mayencourt runs): FRY 32%; MAYENCOURT 30%; GARRISON 20%; CARR 17%: OTHER 1%. Mayencourt wins though if Dion continues to lack national traction on the question of leadership.
07 04 22 Casselman
No need to pounce guys. These ideas are very rough. Calev, that could come true if the Greens are running a great candidate such as Ms. Carr. If Bob Rae can do it in Ontario, the Greens could certainly do the same thing here. The liberals aren't very popular at the moment and the NDP won't get another Svend. In my opinion it'll take a good campaign team and about 70,000-80,000 bucks however I'm excepting a with-in 10-15% loss or victory here.
07 04 19 C. Smith
Casselman is dreaming if he thinks his prediction has any chance of coming true. You are predicting some major bleeding from the Liberal vote, not only to the Greens, but also to the Conservatives, who have been weak in this riding for years. In the 2000 election there was a significant Alliance vote, when the Alliance merged with the PCs the vote total for the two parties dropped significantly (with the NDP vote increasing). This looks to me like a lot of the Alliance vote was simply a protest vote that traditionally had gone NDP. I just do not see how the Liberals could suddenly lose so much of their vote share when nothing has really changed in the riding. Hedy Fry is still popular. The NDP has nominated a decent candidate, but certainly no one who will capture much media attention. If Hedy had no trouble whatsoever drubbing Svend Robinson I do not see her having much trouble with Adrianne Carr. I think that Carr might take some of the NDP vote, maybe a little bit of the NDP vote, perhaps putting her into third place slightly ahead of the Conservatives.
07 04 19 Calev
What? How do you come up with those that same logic I could say that the Conservatives are going to win because 49% of the Liberal vote will go to them... mostly the Liberal party is divided between the right and the left...same with the Conservatives. In the next election, most of the votes for the Green Party is going to come from the NDP and left wing part of the Liberals but that will not be the committed people. I also think that come election day the Greens will have only a slight improvement over last time because I think people will realise that the Greens are not going to be able to do anything. This election is going to be fought between the Libs and the Cons and people who dont want the Conservatives back in are not going to vote for the greens, I think that most of the green parties current support is all talk and no action. I think that the added support will come from the NDP because they do not have a chance to form government.
07 04 17 Casselman
YES I do believe Ms. Carr could win this riding! The Conservatives will rise and take most of there support from Hedy's party, While the Greens scrape off alot of the NDP voters, a few liberals the conservatives forgot and any ?progressive? conservatives left. Ok to put my Math to work 13-14 from NDP to Green - 14-16 from liberal/conservative to Green - 7-8 from liberal to conservative and some to the NDP. that would leave 34.84% to the Greens, 27.80% for the liberals, 20.46% for the conservatives, and 15.67% for the NDP. Even if i'm 5% off the result would still put Greens ahead!
07 04 16 Calev
With both the Liberals and the NDP down in BC and the Cons up, this could be a closer 3 way or even 4 way race.... If the stars aligned right (pun intended) it could be a CON pick up or second place finish, but for that unlikely scenario to occur the green would have to have a large rise. I think it is extremely unlikely but who knows what can happen. for now I will say Liberal hold
07 04 15 Steve L.
with Svend Robinson winning LESS votes than the NDP candidate did in 2004, all bets are off. the Liberals can run a burning cross here and still win. i'll believe a non-Liberal victory when i see it.
07 04 12 St Pat
Hedy's safe. Always was from 97 onwards. But she's slowly learning to toot her own horn more, which can only solidify her position.
Had the Dippers stuck with Kennedy Stewart, they'd be getting much closer to challenging Hedy. But if Svend being handed the nomination wasn't a big cock-up, parachuting old party hack retread Randall Garrison sure is.
Mayencourt running will be great entertainment value...nothing more.
I think Carr, despite being widely loathed as an ‘SUV environmentalist’ here in Vancouver, will draw votes from the main three candidates. But BC is the ‘screw you’ voting capital of Canada!
07 04 01 C. Smith
Though I think that Hedy will once again win the riding it could be much closer than the last two elections if Mayencourt runs for the Conservatives. Though Mayencourt would still likely finish in third place he could improve the Conservative totals enough to bring the NDP and Liberal vote quite close to each other. I think Mayencourt is being courted by the Conservatives not to win in Vancouver Centre, but rather to take enough of the vote so that maybe Hedy will lose the riding. If the Conservatives honestly think that Mayencourt could win the riding they are in serious need of a dose of electoral reality.
07 03 31 A.S.
True, the increasing condo element doesn't help the NDP here--but it didn't stop Olivia Chow from finally taking Trinity-Spadina in '06; the bigger issue in Vanc Centre was that the once-infallible Svend Robinson turned out to be, with his police and psychiatric record, more of an unanticipated liability than an asset to the party (indeed, his candidacy might also have done proxy damage to ‘sure shot’ Ian Waddell nearby). Though after all these failed ‘serious’ efforts, NDP-flirting VC voters must indeed be wondering, what's the point, anymore--the best that can be said is that while VC's an NDP impossibility next to Trinity-Spadina, it's more possible than Toronto Centre; but now with the threat of the Conservatives going B.C. Liberal on us, we might just as well be headed back to the days of perennial pinko third place. Meanwhile, with quixotic national leadership aspirations behind her, the ‘more outrageous = more popular’ principle continues, it would seem, w/Queen Hedy. Hey, this is Vancouver Centre, after all. She's not embarrassing, she's *camp*...
07 03 29 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
We always seem to be predicting Hedy's downfall (and with good reason) but what history has told us is that she's a survivor and there's no reason to think she won't win in 2007. The growing upscale communities pretty much ensures that the NDP don't have much of a chance any more, however the policies of the CPC don't sit well with many metropolitan voters. We can't see the CPC winning any seats within the big three cities (Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver).
07 03 29 Buck
There is a liklihood that Lorne Mayencourt, the current BCLiberal MLA for Vancouver Burrard, will jump ship and run for the federal Conservatives in this riding. John Reynolds was dispatched to convince Lorne to give it a try.
Its easy to see why this would be attractive to Lorne, as he has been marginalized within the BCLiberals and has no hope of ever making cabinet. Also, he won this riding by only 11 votes in the last provincial election against a pretty week ndp candidate.
But why would the Conservatives want Lorne? My guess is that they won't need to invest much in him as he's driven to get himself as much media attention as possible AND as a gay man, he will promote the centrist image that the Tories are trying to fool us all with. Lorne will not win though so the Conservatives will benefit from him running but they'll avoid the well known problems that come with come with this guy.
Hedy will take the riding - and we need her to help keep some of the centre-left perspective in the Grits who, after this recent Tory budget, look further right than the Conservatives.
07 03 28 King of Kensington
Hedy Fry has certainly fended off any threat from the NDP here in this riding and the Conservatives have no chance of winning here. The NDP has nominated Randall Garrison, who ran in Esquimalt before and only until very recently supported the Afghan mission - hardly something to inspire soft NDPers. I've heard Lorne Mayencourt was interested in the Conservative nomination here but I don't know why he'd make a suicide run, they will almost certainly come in a distant third place. Meanwhile Adrienne Carr is running for the Greens who will serve as a wild card - will she draw more from Liberal or NDP voters?
07 03 24
Probably another Liberal win. This is a fast changing riding with the amount of development that is going on. Depending on who the Conservative candidate is they may have a slim chance. The NDP may be a factor in the riding
07 03 21 M. Lunn
The riding I voted in 2006. The NDP had a shot at winning in 2004, but with most of the growth being upscale condominums in Yaletown and Coal Harbour, their window to win this has closed and I expect Hedy Fry to win again easily.

Submit Information here

Provincial Index
Federal Election - 2007
Election Prediction Project -
© Milton Chan, 1999-2007 - Email Webmaster