Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Edmonton Manning


Prediction Changed
2015-09-30 13:13:53
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Aboultaif, Ziad

Aujla, Sukhdev

Deres, Mebreate

Paquette, Aaron

Vachon, André

Vallee, Chris


Population/populations
(2011 census)

106262


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

1895455.46%
908226.57%
31129.11%
9832.88%
Other 20495.99%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Edmonton-Sherwood Park
   (77/180 polls, 46.29% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Hon. Tim Uppal
8095
3763
1308
544
Other2049


   Edmonton East
   (87/180 polls, 45.51% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Peter Goldring
8989
4554
1357
346


   Edmonton-St. Albert
   (16/180 polls, 8.21% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Brent Rathgeber
1870
765
447
93



 


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15 09 29 A.S.
99.233.125.239
'Outer Griesbach', i.e. where the street patterns are more postwar curlicues than prewar gridirons--and as you'd expect in this NE-most neck of the Edmonton woods, it's pretty 'next tier after Griesbach' NDP-targetable; though that may be a fading hope in the election's final weeks. Still, just in case...
15 09 25 Woodworth
24.114.95.73
Alberta Federation of Labour [edited] poll showed CPC with a large lead in this riding. Aboultaif is safe.
15 09 23 Lolitha
198.53.57.220
Environics riding poll (sept 15/16) Conservatives 45 NDP 33 Liberal 18 Green 4
https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/afl/pages/2721/attachments/original/1442866702/Environics_-_AFL_Edm_and_Leth_Federal_Ridings_Report_-_Sept_21-15.pdf?1442866702
15 09 05 Teddy Boragina
69.165.135.72
This is actually one of the parts of Edmonton that is more solidly NDP than many would expect. Don't bother looking at 2015, compare to the 2012 provincial results.
15 09 02 R.O.
24.146.23.226
This is a new riding and a mix of 3 conservative ridings. its an open race with no incumbent. None of the main 3 candidates are that high profile and none have run before federally. The ndp did win this area provincially but its not the same dynamic federally and no wildrose/pc vote split. Federal conservatives continue to poll well in alberta and Zaid Aboultaif is the new candidate. As this is an area the cpc has historically done well in it likely leans cpc at this time but still a lot of campaign left.
15 08 23 Terry The Canadian
173.206.244.106
Edmonton Manning has shown great promise for the NDP in the past few elections. Star candidate Aaron Paquette will take this for the NDP against a field of weak opposition candidates.
15 08 24
162.156.138.98
While I think Calgary seats will be business as usual (CPC with large margin victories) Edmonton will be far more competitive. Past CPC sweeps and almost sweeps were the exception to what I feel should be a fairly NDP leaning city. The NDP will likely win more Edmonton seats than the tories and this is one of them.
Also to the 'out for blood' liberals in this riding, what does that even mean? their trying super hard to get their deposit back?
15 08 04 John
204.191.168.30
Just heard something through the grapevine from someone I know who is active in the Liberal Party. It sounds like the Liberals are going to the mattresses and looking for blood in this riding.
Watch for a poll by poll three way street fight here.
One thing that favours the Conservatives is a possible split on the left.
But it won't be an easy Conservative win.
15 07 05 NonPartisan
24.114.68.55
Although the NDP swept Edmonton provincially, I do not think they will be a real player outside downtown Edmonton federally. The popular provincial NDP has not translated en masse to the federal side, and the CPC is still strong in polls in Alberta, and thus should hold this seat.
15 07 05 NonPartisan
24.114.68.55
Although the NDP swept Edmonton provincially, I do not think they will be a real player outside downtown Edmonton federally. The popular provincial NDP has not translated en masse to the federal side, and the CPC is still strong in polls in Alberta, and thus should hold this seat.
15 05 23 Blanket
204.191.68.77
If the New Democrats run a candidate that have failed numerous times like Ali Haymour then this potential swing riding will go to Zaid Aboultaif and the Conservative Party for sure.
15 04 28 Madcaper
47.55.194.157
If the recent surge in support for the New Democrats at the Provincial level carries over to the Federal level this is one riding that may turn in to a 3 way fight with the New Democrats sneaking up the middle.308.com has this as a fairly close race. Having said this Edmonton Manning is still a relatively safe seat for now. may be one to watch.
15 03 25 Jack Cox
69.165.234.184
This might be competitive at some point but it's a blue riding for now.



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