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Edmonton East

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
12:00 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
4:51 PM 18/03/2004

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Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
John Bethel
Peter Goldring
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Harlan Light
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Ed Spronk
Janina Strudwick

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Edmonton Centre-East (64.8%)
Peter Goldring
Edmonton North (35.2%)
Deborah Grey

2000 Result/Résultats:
19,496 44.51%
15,172 34.64%
6,496 14.83%
2,490 5.68%
147 0.34%

Edmonton Centre-East
(165/239 polls, 52457/78385 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Edmonton North
(70/191 polls, 28447/75184 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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23/06/04 cm
Election night will be full of surprises. I anticipate that some high profile Liberals will lose their seats. One of the biggest surprises though will come in Edmonton East with a narrow Bethel win. There are many solid Liberal supporters in this ethnically diverse riding who will support John, despite the meadia's attempt to label him as 'Martin's boy'.
13/06/04 D.D.
Email: [hidden]
In terms of this sign support on private property that Bethel supposedly has through the riding, let us not forget that his people went out with their "list o'ethnics" and started planting on lawns all over the place--in many cases, without asking first. Goldring's people followed the trail of Bethel signs and found that most people were just as happy to have a Goldring sign as a Bethel sign, but had been told that it was illegal to remove a sign during an election, even if nobody had asked them first. So that's why there are many Goldring and Bethel signs on the same lawns. To my mind, the Goldring ones involve legit permission, while Bethel's are more "do it now, and ask later".

There's no way that Bethel, particularly as a Martin appointee over the winnable Chadi, can take this riding. By the way, where are Chadi's supporters going now?
12/06/04 markn
Email: [hidden]
One of those hold your nose and vote for the least offensive person who can win. Mr. Goldring may be a weak candidate and very little in terms of accomplishing anything in Ottawa for his constituents. However, I cannot vote for a party as hypocritical as the Liberals. Prime Minister Martin came in on a wave promising to improve the democratic process, and when he allowed Sheila Copps to have to go through a nomination meeting versus Tony Valeri, I was happy to see that no one would get special consideration. However, the PM appoints Bethel, along with Bethel's high school buddy Bill Cunningham (Burnaby-Douglas) as candidates, instead of letting them try to win a fair nomination meeting. I can understand the PM's desire to get rid of Copps, but she had a long track record in public life before the last nomination meeting. Bethel's? He has accomplished nothing.
But I look at Bethel professionally, and in some terms, personally. All he has been since he left university is a Liberal Party hack. If you believe what "Frank" magazine wrote about him, he is dating the national director of the Liberal Party. His mother Judy was named riding executive president. And the time he ran for Alderman in ward 3, he finished 4th - and that's taking into consideration he was using his mother's campaign signs, and probably counting on people marking off "Bethel, J" at the ballot box. Personally, I knew him when he was going to ME LaZerte HS, and there is nothing that he could have done in his life since high school that convinces me that he isn't the same irresponsible and immature person back then that he is today. I'd like to put some of the things he pulled off back then, but they either wouldn't survive the screening, it's all anecdotal and hearsay (but then again, lots of people know) and I have to take into account some of the stuff he did was when he wasn't an adult yet.
12/06/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Don't be fooled by the number of signs you see. The more signs present only means that the Liberals are working extra hard to be noticed. Frankly they need to be, they're sinking or sunk everywhere but the Atlantic provences. Think about it, they're drowning, so they're going to fight as hard as they can to stay afloat (translation: they're campaign team is going to lose plenty of sleep while they canvas as hard as possible). This means they're goignt o be more visible. Problem is they're too low in the opinion polls to hold much hope on winnign any seats that went Conservative in 2000.
07/06/04 L
Email: [hidden]
If anyone can win this riding for the Liberals, its John Bethel. He's out-sigining Goldring by a huge margin, and this is the first time that Goldring has faced a serious challenge. He doesn't have the resources or the infrastructure in place to mount a serious campaign. Bethel, on the other hand, has been a strong organizer for years and has a huge volunteer base. It will be tight, but Bethel will take Edmonton East.
02/06/04 Matt
Looks like Bethel has a lot of support throughout the riding. Driving around the riding, I see a lot of Bethel signs on private houses. All of Goldring's signs seem to be on public roadways or city fences. Either Goldring's pretty lazy or the public just isn't supporting him. I have also seen Goldring and his elderly crew waving at traffic. Not a lot excitment there.... John and his team seem to be working hard and I think thats what this riding wants, a young, hardworking MP, not someone running around looking for Canada's next colony. Edmonton-East is not the most affluent riding and most couldn't afford to visit "Canada's Tropical Paradise". Most constituents would rather have their MP focus on the issues in the riding. Bethel takes this riding by a 4000 vote margin.
25/05/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
If this was January or February right now, with Peter Goldring being the champion of the Turk and Caicos Islands joining Canada, not only would he be winning his seat, people would want him as prime minister! Okay, now joking aside, he may be a weak MP but on a good day, the word "Liberal" is a dirty word in Alberta. It's not good days for the Liberals anywhere. True there is no NDP candidate as of yet, which is the worst thing for Goldring, but the nominations are not closed yet. We'll refrain from predicting his downfall until nominations are closed and there is no NDP candidate running in Edmonton East.
As a point of order, the person that refered to the interest in the Turk and Caicos as "Canadian manifest destiny". That would imply a God sanctioned invasion and conquest of these islands. These islands WANT to join Canada and have been mulling over the idea since the 1970's. The fact is, in the 80's it was Canada that turned they down! What were we thinking?!?! Must have been a warm winter that year.
25/05/04 Ed Manning
Email: [hidden]
Sorry to say, but Mr. Goldring will win by a small margin. Bethel's 'prodigal son' routine will only carry him so far. As it stands now, with no ND in the race (in the last riding that they held a seat in Alberta - how is that for ND respect for the citizens of Edmonton East), it will be head to head with thousands of Chadi supporters voted anyway but Bethel.
24/05/04 Ted Nancy
Email: [hidden]
To me this seems like a good shot at a gain for the Liberals here in Alberta. This is one of only 4 seats in Alberta that Liberals held after the 93 election, and the current MP Goldring is the invisible man. The only time I ever here of this guy in the local media is associated with bizzare stories about carribean islands, problems with having put Wayne Gretzky in one of his brochures, or stories in the Sun about him treating tenants in his properties poorly.
Bethel probably has some name recogintion in the riding, and was also showed up in that book Juggernaut about Martin's leadership campaign. He seems to be pretty connected to Ottawa so they will likely put some resources into this riding. Also looks like he has a lot of signs around here.
ND's dont seem to have a candidate yet, so it looks like all the anti-alliance vote will go to Bethel making this a winnable riding.
18/05/04 Matt
Email: [hidden]
Peter Goldring doesn't have a hope of carrying this riding. Without a named NDP candidate, voters will have to choose between the centrist policies of John Bethel, or the just-right-of-Harper politics of Peter Goldring. Not only is Goldring a poor MP, but his values do not mesh at all with the majority of this riding. At least with Deb Gray you knew she could raise a stink about an issue if you had one; Goldring doesn't have that ability. Furthermore, Peter Goldring seems to be more concerned about kicking homeless people out of shelters and Canada's Manifest Destiny in the Carribean than he is about Edmonton-East. The Left/Right vote totals were dead even last time around; if the ND's sit this one out, watch for all their support to go to Bethel - along with some of people who voted PC in the last election, but cannot stomach Goldring's policies. Add to this Goldring's complete lack of a volunteer core (or campaign office, for that matter) and I honestly believe that Bethel will not only be left with a plurality on election day, but a majority as well.
Email: [hidden]
With the NDP not running a "high profile" candidate and the general population tiring of Goldrings antics, Bethel has a serious chance of taking this riding. Goldring is no Deborah Grey and I see the Liberals and Conservatives splitting these former Alliance votes. This, coupled with only a single left-leaning candidate, puts Bethel in a very favourable position.
10/05/04 B.A.S.
Email: [hidden]
As predicted John Bethel gets handed the nomination. Very little chance for him to take this riding. Sure the NDs will slip and Goldring hasn't done a very good job, but there will be no vote splitting here. Bethel's appointment ruins any chance of this being a race on the canidates and when it comes down to an election on party preferences the conservatives will win easily.
08/05/04 Moderate
Email: [hidden]
Goldring is in trouble IF...and it is a big if.....the NDP puts in a no-name candidate as it appears they will. It is well known that Ray Martin has decided against running to pursue a return to provincial politics.
If the NDP concentrate on provincial and allow a candidate like pot activist Ken Kirk to hobble along as a candidate in Edmonton East--then John Bethel will take this riding. He is far more organized, and will appeal to a very wide centre of the political spectrum.
Goldring has a small, far-right team of octogenarians that will contrast pretty significantly with Bethel's young, professional group. I think this will be an interesting race to watch. Especially if the NDP takes a by.
07/05/04 ToDo
Email: [hidden]
I saw Peter Goldring kicking off his campaign on 112th Avenue on Friday May 7th. He and a number of his supporters were doing a sign wave, but NO ONE was honking. Maybe people aren't in election mode yet, but it did seem like a chilly reception for Mr. Goldring. If the car pool poll means anything, Goldring's in for a rough ride.
07/05/04 Olive_Branch
Email: thedevilthedevil@hotmail.com
I heard a rumour that either Mel Hurtig or former Alberta NDP leader Ray Martin would run here. If either runs, the NDs will win this riding.
06/05/04 MC
Email: [hidden]
I think that this will be a Liberal pick-up. The popularity of the NDP candidate in 2000 (Ray Martin) gave the NDP a disproportionately high vote count for an NDP candidate in Edmonton. If the NDP run a weaker candidate, then Sue Olsen would have won the seat.
05/05/04 Bullfrog
Email: [hidden]
I think the new Edmonton East riding, as redistributed, will be tough for current MP Peter Goldring to hang onto. The new part of the riding, north of 137th Avenue, has often (although not consistently) offered fertile ground for Liberal votes during both provincial and federal elections. During the 1997 and 2000 Elections, however, this part of the riding voted Alliance. What will be interesting to see is whether these Alliance votes were cast simply on account of Deborah Grey being the candidate. I believe this is the case, and the fact that Peter Goldring will be a new face to these voters leads me to think that he will have difficulty taking the riding for a third term against either John Bethel or Sine Chadi.
05/05/04 Jim
Email: [hidden]
It is important to note here that the redistributed results reflect the portion of the riding that came from the former Edmonton North. In 2000, the race was between Deborah Grey and a weak Liberal candidate Jim Jacuta. If you go back to 1993, the Liberals won this riding with a larger majority than both Judy Bethel and Anne McLellan with a little known candidate, John Loney. If you take the Deb Gray factor out the new part of the riding is very good for the Liberals. It is Laurence Decore's stronghold.
The new part of the riding is predominantly ethnic who are solid Liberal voters.
I think John Bethel, who is very well connected with the multicultural communities is going to win this one against a very weak incumbent.
04/05/04 Butch
Email: [hidden]
I think Peter Goldring has lost touch with many of the people in this riding. His recent stand on the privatization of social housing, and his comments about Louis Riel reveal how out of touch he is with his own riding. It appears as though the Liberals will have a strong and motivated team on the ground in this riding, as it appears as John Bethel will be the candidate in this riding. John is very well recognized and respected by people of all political stripes in the community. The NDP still have no candidate or anyone interested for that matter, which should help the Liberals gain the support for people that are tired of Goldring. There is no doubt this riding will be close, but in the end Goldring's arrogance and his being on the far right side of the Conservatives will have former PC's, NDPers and Liberals uniting under Bethel to get rid of him.
19/04/04 Helen W.
Email: [hidden]
The anti-democratic practices of the Liberal Party in the way its handled the nomination in Edmonton East has turned into an invitation for all to vote Conservative.
Sine Chadi is being denied a chance to run because he will win the nomination against Paul Martin's fair haired boy John Bethel. Edmonton East will not vote for a candidate who couldn't even win his party's endorsement in a fair contest. Chadi has over 2000 people signed up on his side - that's a fair portion of the electorate right there that will not vote Liberal and that will certainly talk about why cause they are all pretty pissed off.
John Bethel is not a good enough candidate for the Liberal Party to sacrifice its chances on. What a lesson in inept politics.
31/03/04 B.A.S.
Email: [hidden]
Watch for the nasty fight over the Liberal nomination to hurt John Bethel after he is awarded the nomination by Paul Martin. Sine Chadi has swamped him in the number of memberships sold leaving appointment as the only way for Martin to ensure his boy Bethel gets the nomination. Sine Chadi will be a very sore loser when this happens. The negativity publicity will prove too much for Bethel to overcome in his slim chance at knocking off Goldring.
31/03/04 Jacob
Email: [hidden]
I met John Bethel. He is one hell of a guy and would make a fantastic MP. I don't know enough about the riding to comment one way or the other on the likelihood of him winning. I think he would be a very effective campaigner from door to door.
30/03/04 Happy Fun Pundit
Email: [hidden]
John Bethel vs. Sine Chadi? Should be a fun nomination meeting though presumably Bethel (with Martin's backing) will win. Unfortuatly for John it's a lot harder to stack a real election, but he might have a shot if he picks a real campaign manager and not one of his drinking buddies. Between Goldring and Bethel expect a dirty campaign. If I still lived here I'd vote NDP, but Goldring will probably weasel his way back in.
23/03/04 W. Indy
Email: [hidden]
This riding will be close. If Peter Goldring was a good MP, this could be a CA/Conservative Stronghold. The smear tactics he used on the 2000 Fed Lib Candidate, popular Norwood Liberal MLA Sue Olsen, did not play well in the media (Taking her to court over aligations her campaign slandered him, the Judge ended up throwing the case out of court).
I will predict a slim Liberal victory. Both of the people running for the Liberal Nomination are high-profile and very well connected in the commuunity. John Bethel (Martin AB Campaign Chair and son of former MP Judy Bethel), and Sine Chadi (another former Liberal MLA).
Here's hoping John Bethel will take the nomination and become the next Liberal MP for Edmonton East!
17/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
This riding will go Conservative. Re-distributed results have the alliance winning by 10%.

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