Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Edmonton-Sherwood Park

Prediction Changed
2009-08-25 16:09:00

Constituency Profile


Ford, James

Scott, Mike

St. Laurent, Paul

Szostak, Rick

Uppal, Tim

Vallee, Chris

Tim Uppal

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • edmonton-centre-east (57/239 Polls)
  • edmonton-north (20/191 Polls)
  • elk-island (117/222 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 19 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Some of our fellow pundits (ones whose opinions we respect) have been saying this shoud be TCTC. We thought at first they were a little off kilter but then we reviewed the results from last election and looked at the polls. Ford made it very close and all it would take a little uptick in Liberal support and the CPC could lose it to Ford. Hate to break the news but the Liberals have been consitently polling better in the praries. Now Uppal was a new candidate in '08 and now is better known, with incumbent advantage. However if Ford can keep his support up from last time and if Liberals can draw away soft CPC support from Edmonton proper, then this may go independant. Ironically, this would probably give the citizens of this riding (and the handful of ridings that may vote for independant)the strongest voice in parliament.
    11 04 12 binriso
    Think on this, if the same independent is running here then I think he may actually win this riding. If you are a extremely socially conservative voter, there is really no point in voting for the CPC if there is a more social conservative candidate running as an independent. The CPC arent going to reintroduce any legislation to completely ban abortion or same sex marriage, that would destroy them as a national party and they are settled issues anyways. The independent candidate can easily promise to speak his mind on these issues without any consequence or repercussions to himself. Furthermore, true fiscal conservatives who claim to worry about debt levels first before anything else should be worried about this massive spending and about voting Conservative. Regardless of the world economic conditions, history will show Canada experienced astronomical deficits under a Conservative government. Its incredible to think that people trust them so much on the economy when they continue to spend huge amounts of borrowed money on various projects and plan to continue lowering taxes in the future. Fantasy economics indeed. This would be another major issue to be brought up during a local campaign and true fiscal conservatives could see the double standard here and potentially elect a protest MP, this time from the very right wing of the political spectrum.
    11 04 03 M. Lunn
    This will definitely have a right wing MP, the real question is will it be Tim Uppal from the Conservatives or James Ford who is running as an independent and in many ways even more right wing. Perhaps a prelude to the next provincial election where it will be a battle between the more moderate PCs and more right wing WildRose Alliance. At this point since the nomination battle is behind, I think Uppal has a strong edge, but Ford did almost win last time around. Off course he will probably back to the Tories on most issues (much the way Andre Arthur now does) and if they were 1 seat shy of a majority I suspect they would let him join.
    11 03 30 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    Point of information: looks like Ford will be running again.
    11 03 28 Steve Smith
    There is absolutely no reason to believe that James Ford will fare better this time than last time, and much reason to believe otherwise. Uppal's profile is higher this time around than it was last time, while Ford's is lower. Besides that, part of why Ford did so well last time was anger over the nomination process, and that anger will have receded among all but the bitterest partisans.
    Uppal will increase his margin here comfortably.
    09 09 26 John
    Posters like Observer I think are missing the boat here.
    The reason Uppal won by such a narrow margin last time around was a vote split on the right. Uppal is now an incumbent who has had a chance to show the riding what he can do for them, and that gives him an even better chance of keeping the riding.
    As to Observer's comment about Jaffer being kicked out, Jaffer was a multiple term MP who lost because (a) I think he started taking his riding for granted and (b) Duncan put in a lot of work between elections to build up her support.
    09 09 08 PY
    It's hard to say...if Ford bows out, Uppal's in. However, if Ford decides to go at it again, he might have a shot to become the Andr? Arthur of the West.
    09 09 06 A.S.
    I feel that racial/cultural issues--if not, strictly/bluntly/crudely speaking, ‘racism’ (I hope)--*do* explain '08's result in part; though more through the prism of perceived ethnic-machineryesque questionable political tactics than through raw ‘Alberta Conservative = racist’ equations. (It's no different from some of the party-nomination and ballot-box debacles over the years in the Liberal-loving GTA, for example.) And there *is* something a little fishy about how Ford virtually swept the polls in Sherwood Park and Fort Sask, yet was relegated to something like *fourth* place in the more culturally polyglot Edmonton polls. So, don't be defensive, folks--it *isn't* a ‘Toronto Liberal’ smear-tactic conspiracy. Maybe issues related (directly or indirectly) to race and culture *do* play a strong part in explaining the final outcome (and over in Calgary, even Devinder Shory lost share to a ‘white’ ex-Tory independent under not dissimilar circumstances). But I say so more sympathetically, because it's not unique to Tory-loving Alberta, it happens elsewhere, even ironically favouring the left-of-centre on occasion. To deny the possibility altogether on ‘Alberta Conservatives are not racist’ grounds, especially in circumstances like this, is simply crude--though I can understand the urge to react when even Rahim Jaffer's defeat is absurdly blamed on racism. (Er, no, it's because his seat is naturally left-leaning, and the NDP's pooled resources there; and besides, the race factor's neutralized by Jaffer being as Christian Lander-esque as an Albertan ReformAllianceTory-of-colour type gets.) But now, I agree that Uppal's earned his safety through incumbency; maybe a James Ford rerun will mean a token below-average crimp in Uppal's share, but that's simply because Ford's a familiar ‘electable’ name from last time. Otherwise, it's all water under the bridge.
    09 09 06 Observer
    Whenever Conservatives run minority candidates in their strongholds, the vote share comes substantially down. These conservative voters have to close the eyes and vote Conservative because they vote right-wing no matter who the candidate is. And Conservative folks don't get angry: this is true not only in Canada, but also in the US or the UK... you are not being original.
    09 09 06 Observer
    Whenever Conservatives run minority candidates in their strongholds, the vote share comes substantially down. These conservative voters have to close the eyes and vote Conservative because they vote right-wing no matter who the candidate is. And Conservative folks don't get angry: this is true not only in Canada, but also in the US or the UK... you are not being original.
    09 09 03 Stevo
    The comments of binriso and Observer are typical of Liberals, even though they are completely without basis. From their Toronto bubble, they claim to psychically know what Conservative-voting Albertans believe in their hearts. The reality is not that Alberta Conservatives are racist, but rather that second-generation non-white Canadians are abandoning the Liberal Party in droves, and this is why Liberals feel the need to invent racism where there is none, to get these voters back. Tim Uppal's near-loss was a result of a very public and very bitter riding association battle, in which Uppal's team was accused of very unethical activities. That is all ancient history in the rapid-fire pace of federal politics, so he should bounce back to a typically large Albertan Tory win.
    09 08 29 JJ
    Observer -- I highly suggest you watch what you say and think through it clearly before implying that Albertans are racist. That's a big charge you're putting forth there, especially since two Calgary MP's are of ethnic minority origin - Deepak Obhrai, a Parliamentary Secretary for Foreign Affairs (a big post), and Devinder Shory. Both won by landslide proportions. Racism had nothing to do with the close results in this riding or Edmonton-Strathcona.
    This riding will be held by Tim Uppal because so far James Ford has not declared any intentions of running again. Uppal, while he has had his share of controversy, has been building up his profile as the MP incumbent. In addition, this is a massive Conservative Party stronghold. The only way they could lose this is if the right-wing James Ford runs again, runs a strong campaign, and closes the gap.
    09 08 25 Observer
    Alberta Conservatives don't like ‘new canadians’ as their representatives. Rahim Jaffer was kicked out in Edmonton Strathcona and Tim Uppal won by a very a narrow margin. A Conservative Independent or the Wildrose Alliance party can win this riding if they choose to run.
    09 08 24 binriso
    Although a strong challenge from an independent came up just short, barring another circumstance like 2008 the CPC should win here quite easily, despite the fact that their candidate is controversial (read non-white) to a large portion of the CPC base here.

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