Prediction Changed
10:31 AM 02/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Edmonton-Sherwood Park
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Erfani, Nina
Ford, James
New Democratic
LaBelle, Brian
Szostak, Rick
Uppal, Tim

Ken Epp

2006 Result:
Ken Epp **
Ron Symic
Laurie Lang
Lynn T. Lau

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 11 dls
If you need a blueprint for whats going to happen here, then you can look to Peace River last time. Conservative candidate, controversy over the nomination process. Independent conservative ran, picked up about 9,000 votes and a distant second.
08 10 08 MCole
I was at the forum last night at festival place and James Ford definitely had everyone our numbered. I would venture to say that 60% of all the attendees were James Ford supporters. I agree with the post that mentioned his visible minority being to his advantage in the North Edmonton section of this riding. However, as statistics show they get under 20% voter turnout, while Sherwood Park and Fort Saskatchewan, where James Ford seems to be clearly in the lead for support gets over 70% voter turnout and make up 3/4 of the entire riding. I think that Mr. Uppal will be surprised come October 14th when James Ford is declared as the next MP.
08 10 06 Mark
Tim Uppal will win this riding simply because he has the party affiliation. Jimmy Ford is running a strong campaign and will undoubtedly pick up strong support in the rural & acreage areas of this riding, primarily south Sherwood Park. Uppal being a visible minority will work to his advantage in the 'Edmonton' portion of this riding which is far more multicultural than Sherwood Park itself. Jimmy Ford ought to be commended for running a strong campaign, so I expect him to finish a strong 2nd. This is certainly not the only riding interfered with by the conservative leadership, but that type of politics has come to be expected in every election and every party is guilty of this.
08 09 30 Todd
Uppal has had signs up all over the place since the day the writ was dropped. No one who is not a Tory insider in the riding knows the Independant candidate. Easy CPC win, again.
08 09 30 Donaldson
Tim Uppal is a bright young Conservative candidate, and should hold this seat for the Tories. Independent Jimmy Ford risks splitting some of the conservative vote, but seems to have very little ground to stand on beyond sour grapes from a lost nomination and subtly pointing out the fact that his opponent is a visible minority.
08 09 25 Alberta Dude
Uppal is a disaster. His legal troubles are all over the press. The rigged nomination meeting stinks.
Jimmy Ford has the endorsement of Peter Elzinga hwo is a heavty hitter and past MP for the area.
Ford wins this with 40% of the vote.
Uppal is sent to the dustbin of history as a three-time loser. (which is a helluva a feat for a Conservative candidate in Alberta).
08 09 22 MR
This should be a very interesting election. With the issues surrounding Tim Uppal's nomination as the conservative candidate, Ken Epp, Iris Evans, Dave Quest, and Ed Stelmach not supporting him, and the defensiveness of his campaign all seem to make me decision on who to vote for a lot easier.
08 09 21
Ford, too much bad press for Uppal.
Ford is running on electoral reform. It's a great emotional appeal for Albertans. Plays well with Senate Reform. You have to consider that the Liberals place their top picks without a nomination process, and NDP place picks based solely on affirmative action i.e. Women 20% of nominees.
You can't fault uppal for playing the system [Great political instinct]. But you have to give credit to Ford for believing in Conservatism.
08 09 21 PA
I am going to make a bold prediction and say Independent Jimmy Ford takes this one. This Independent candidate has some organization and press behind him.
08 09 17 John
As others have pointed out, in most ridings in Alberta the Conservatives could run a bale of hay and get elected.
The Edmonton Journal did run a story recently on the Conservative support now being split in this riding and the race turning into a toss up, but I would take this with a grain of salt. Last weekend, the Journal and the G&M gave such different reports about the Conservatives it was hard to believe the two papers were talking about the same election.
Uppal might not get as big a margin as Epp did last time around, but this riding is for the Conservatives to lose. Edmonton Sherwood Park will remain Tory blue.
08 09 16 Willm
My guess is the party moved Uppal into Edmonton-Sherwood Park. Considering Uppal's strenght in Millwoods it would have been an easy win for Uppal to challange Lake for the Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont riding. Not good optics for the party or the PMO to displace a sitting MP.
08 09 16 bad_driver98
Even if the Conservatives split right down the middle of the vote numbers, either the Conservative or the Independent Conservative would still have 10,000 more votes (approximately) than either the Green or Liberal. In Alberta you could and in the past they have run a donkey as a Conservative and win. There are two ridings in Edmonton that might be close. Edmonton Centre and Edmonton Strathcona, other than that a sea of blue.
08 09 15 A.S.
If there's a threat to the Tory grip here, it'll only be if Jim Ford catches some kind of NunziataCadmanAndreArthur fire. And given how polling's going, how the Liberals would be best positioned to come up the middle considering they were virtually even with the NDP here last time, I'll never know...
08 09 12 Gone Fishing
I'd type more but I am unable to control my mirth at the thought someone actually thinks the liberals will win this one.
08 09 12 Calev
HAHAHAHA Bob are you kidding me? First off, I covered that nomination and Uppal is loved by the committed party members in Sherwood Park. Second, Uppal does live in Sherwood Park, yes he did just move here, but you know parachuting only maters if say he came in from Toronto, not you know not from the same city let alone the same province. Even if Jim Ford did have support among the party faithful, they do not decide the election the uninformed masses will and they are going to vote for anyone with a C next to it. Conservative hold
08 09 12 Bob
There is an interesting dynamic in this riding. Tim Uppal was parachutede in by party brass in a kooky nomination meting. Former Conservative powerhouse Jim Ford left the party in disgust and is running as an independent. The strength of Ford is that he actually lives in Sherwood Park and is tapping into huge Conservative support. Uppal is no Ken Epp.
Th result will br a split vote which allows the Liberal to run up the middle. It will be a close 3-way race.
08 02 26 A.S.
Well, that's how urban Alberta's evolved over the fifteen years since the Reform revolution: classic class-of-93 Reformer Ken Epp shocks those remaining circa-1983 redneck Legionaires by passing his baton on to a dude with a turban--and, really, Sherwood Park?!? By GTA standards, that's getting more into Halton than Peel territory--though in all honesty, we are dealing with a seat that now contains a significant part of Edmonton proper. One wonders with this Saskatchewanesque new wave of urban/satellite/rural-hybrid Edmonton ridings whether things might have gotten more competitive had Edmonton seats remained strictly circumscribed within Edmonton...
07 09 30 John
You have to remember who Uppal came within a hair of beating. Kilgour was a very popular MP who could take the riding regardless of what party he ran for.
If Uppal can do the same kind of work in Edmonton Sherwood Park, the riding will stay Conservative.
07 09 24 Nick J Boragina
Letís do some simple math here regarding Uppalís parachute. Lets assume the Greens and NDP happen to nominate the same guy the Liberals do. Letís also round up from the last election and put this candidate at 20,000 votes. The CPC won 34,000 (rounding down) lats election here. That would mean more then 7,000 people would have to be so upset at the parachute that they vote for the opposition just to get the *combined* vote strong enough to beat the CPC. Once you realize the Greens and NDP are not nominating the same person the Liberals are, you start to see how improbable it is that the Tories will lose.
07 04 01 Rey D.R.
Tim Uppal will finally get his much sought after seat in parliament here. Twice defeated by David Kilgour in Edmonton Southeast and then once defeated by Mike Lake in a nomination meeting. Uppal has been parachuted into Edmonton-Sherwood Park. That fact might cost him a handful of votes, if any, and the election is mere coronation for the man who will soon be King of Edmonton Sherwood Park. Easy Conservative win.
07 03 28 Senator
The Conservative Candidate is Tim Uppal, the guy who came 134 votes short of beating David Kilgour in 2004. He shouldn't have any trouble winning here. Even if he isn't from the riding, the Conservative lable is all that matters. The only interesting thing might be which of the other parties comes a distant second.

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