Election Prediction Project
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Edmonton-Sherwood Park
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
9:27 AM 6/23/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
4:48 PM 18/03/2004

Constituency Profile
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Ken Epp
Chris Harwood
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Margaret Marean
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Maureen Towns

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Edmonton Centre-East (28.2%)
Peter Goldring
Edmonton North (8.0%)
Deborah Grey
Elk Island (63.8%)
Ken Epp

2000 Result/Résultats:
25,730 57.49%
10,649 23.79%
4,675 10.45%
3,653 8.16%
47 0.11%

Edmonton Centre-East
(57/239 polls, 20454/78385 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Edmonton North
(20/191 polls, 5767/75184 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Elk Island
(117/222 polls, 46222/78682 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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21/06/04 DSY
Email: [hidden]
the Liberals are not done in yet and the conservative shananigan blacklash is yet to kick in. Edmonton is volatile and Epp is to complacent.
Sherwood Park and Edmotnon will decide this one and Maureen looks favourable. BTW, I do not see many Epp signs but I do see many Maureen Town signs. Maureen is knocking on door in Edmonton. Epp is barely visible in Edmonton.
Too close to call.
Remember 1993!
12/06/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Sorry DSY. We understanf you're enthusiastic about the Liberals (we read your other Edmonton area postings) but they don't have a prayer in Alberta ridings they did not win in 2000. John Williams garnished over 50% of the vote when Stockwell Day was head of the party and the Liberals were doing relativly well. Now it's possibly Stephen Harper as the next PM, the Conservatives can only gain. Williams will have to screw things up badly for him to lose when its good to be a Tory.
12/06/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Usually we have a field-day poking fun at NDP supporters who think they can win the sun, moon and stars once NDP numbers go into double digits ("I think the NDP will win in Wild Rose, because they have a no-name parachute candidate..."). Now it seems we have to burst some Liberal supporter's bubbles. people have posted that Epp is complacent and doesn't think his seat is in trouble. Well guess what? His seat ISN'T in trouble! The Liberals may have a good candidate but they are sinking or sunk everywhere but in Atlantic Canada. When long time, hard core Liberal ridings are going soft on them, how can a riding that voted for a Conservative with more than 50% (with vote splitting) suddenly ditch that MP when his party has a very good shot at winning the election? PLEASE! Get a grip on reality. The only way that a sitting Conservative MP in Alberta is going to lose his or her seat this election is if they're a total boob. Sorry folks, Epp may be complacent or cocky about winning but he is certainly not going to lose.
06/06/04 DSY
Email: [hidden]
Just did a drop for the Liberal Candidate. One voter wanted to send a message to Golding, and I had to tell him Epp was now the Conservative Banner Flyer. Also, I passed by Epp's campaign office and yes it was open but one body home. Liberal putting up a good fight. Change this to too close to call. Big swing coming here and many Edmotnon ridings.
28/05/04 Kady
Email: [hidden]
In all honesty, this is too close to call. Despite some negative letters to the editor in the local paper, Maureen Towns is coming on strong. Epp is not visible and doesn't think his seat is at risk. Despite large numbers of Conservative voters in the last election, the Liberal candidate this time has way more going for her in terms of personality, ambition, and enthusiasm. Ken Epp just can't compare. Chris Harwood is young, and that may attract a lot of young voters, but there is only a 25% turnout rate for young voters, so that probably won't have any real bearing. I'm looking forward to the forum to see how a former Crown Prosecuter does against a former math teacher who was the Critic of Rural Development (!?!) when even Stockwell Day was the Critic of Foreign Affairs. Ken Epp's party seems to have a lack of faith in him, but will throw enough money to him in order for him to hold onto his seat. Either way, this will be a nail biter.
25/05/04 DSY
Email: [hidden]
Maureen Towns is the Public School Board Trustee for Sherwood PArk and area. Keen Epp is going to have a BIG uphill battle to keep his seat. He no longer lives in the riding. He has got many people upset. The Edmotnon portion of the riding is multiethnic and that will not favour Ken Epp at all. Every vote will count. IMHO, WAY TOO CLOSE to call
27/03/04 F. Upton
Email: [hidden]
Voters can see that Ken Epp has gotten complacent with his place in Ottawa. While the sponsership scandal is still an issue with voters, it is a PRIORITY for the Liberal government. Epp's never had a candidate this strong running against his. It will be a close race, but Epp will probably win.
17/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
The alliance took twise as many votes here as the liberals did. Easy win for the new tories.
17/03/04 Happy fun pundit
Email: [hidden]
The newly nominated Liberal Candidate, Public School Board Chair Maureen Towns, seems pretty decent and has a bit of name recognition, but she'll face a nearly impossible task beating three term incumbant Reform/Alliance/Conservative Ken Epp who's never got less than 60 per cent of the vote. Epp pretty well liked in the riding, even by people (like me) who disagree with most of his views.
Before the sponsorship scandal, the Liberals might have had an outside chance here, but unless the Conservative Party runs an amazingly inept campaign, Epp will win a landslide.

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