Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Central Okanagan-Similkameen-Nicola


Prediction Changed
2015-09-12 20:18:25
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Albas, Dan

Mellalieu, Robert

Scott, Karley

Wood, Angelique


Population/populations
(2011 census)

104398


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

2669054.59%
1273626.05%
491810.06%
37967.76%
Other 7541.54%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Okanagan-Coquihalla
   (129/215 polls, 67.17% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Dan Albas
17896
7708
3214
2525
Other754


   Kelowna-Lake Country
   (61/215 polls, 23.64% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Hon. Ron Cannan
6346
2994
1524
1022


   British Columbia Southern Interior
   (25/215 polls, 9.19% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Alex Atamanenko
2448
2034
180
249



 


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15 10 07 A.S.
99.233.125.239
With things no longer looking as '1988 revisited' as they did a month ago, expect COSN to return to a 'Stockwell Day's former seat' normal. However, if we *were* looking at 1988 all over again, I, for one, don't think West Kelowna would have been that much of a cramp (the NDP were still over 20% in 2011 in that portion, anyway)
15 08 25 PHYSASTR Master
24.86.207.206
Yes, the NDP has won a nominally similar riding before but it had very different boundaries, which made it more demographically similar to South Okanagan-West Kootenay. The problem for the NDP here is West Kelowna. It's pretty safe so say the NDP will win in the Similkameen and Nicola, which are both fairly neutral territory provincially. Westside and the small sliver of Kelowna City included are VERY unfriendly to the NDP. Demographically I see some hope, but it hasn't been reflected in voting habits yet. This is still close enough to hold off on a call (308 showing the NDP 4% back), but it leans Conservative... For now....
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
24.139.3.217
The NDP has won ridings like this before and the BC Interior is one of those great sleeper regions for the party. With the Conservatives down in BC and the NDP on the rise, look for this riding to turn orange.
15 08 03 Jan
70.48.155.182
The NDP has won this riding in the past when it was Okanagan—Similkameen. The situation is similar to 1988 when the NDP surged in BC and surpassed the Conservatives in many rural BC ridings. NDP win.
15 07 26 R.O.
24.146.23.226
This is still more of a right of centre area federally and provincially , there is a big gap from 2011 numbers for ndp to overcome here . current mp Dan Albas is still running for the cpc and liberal and ndp candidates aren't really that high profile. It was also Stockwell Days old riding and generally considered to be a conservative area politically.
15 07 13 Dr Bear
74.14.179.73
While the CPC seem to be holding on to this riding, the polling numbers show that the NDP are encroaching even here. If the numbers persist, then even this seat is not safe.
15 03 25 JC
69.165.234.184
This is a blue riding, doesn't matter if the Tories don't have a candidate here, they could run the devil himself here so long as he was blue and they'd win, this is Stockwell Day's former stomping ground, they will win this seat easily.



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