Prediction Changed
3:50 PM 07/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Southern Interior
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Atamanenko, Alex
Jagpal, Brenda
Morel, Andy
Sproule, Brian
Zandee, Rob

Alex Atamanenko

2006 Result:
Alex Atamanenko
Bill Profili
Derek Zeisman
Scott Leyland
Brian Sproule

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 04 Kevin Scott
I've just spent a week in this riding and spoke to a lot of people about this election. I expected to find the area ripe for Harper supporters, but was surprised to find how popular incumbent Alex Artimenko was. He's surprisingly well liked by the business segment of the population as well as by what one would expect to be the NDP's traditional base. Conservative candidate Rob Zandee is working very hard and will make the result closer than anticipated, but expect the NDP to keep this riding.
08 09 20 Tom
Those predicting a Conservative victory seem to be forgetting the 2004 result. This was never a Conservative stronghold, at least not since the 2004 NDP revival. Atamanenko now has the advantage of incumbency, and he is himself not facing an incumbent, as in 2004. That alone should be enough for people to predict this for the NDP. Not by the landslide of last time, of course, but by a solid margin of at least 10%.
The Conservatives are (somewhat surprisingly), not up at all on their 2006 numbers in BC; the NDP has also more or less held steady. This may conceal quite a large number of voters moving around (Lib to Con, Con to Green, NDP to Green, and Liberal to NDP), but the primary shift in BC has been a swing of about 10% Liberal to Green--which has absolutely no impact on the result in this riding. Safe NDP.
08 09 20 centreright
Green vote may increase, at the cost of the Libs and NDP. Conservative vote will increase, as is the trend across the country, and also there is a hungry young candidate who will work hard for the riding. Of course, last election is just no comparison anyway, since there was no CPC candidate.
08 09 16 Kris
The riding has a strong conservative presence which fell apart due to the candidate during the last election. In the West Kootenay's the strength of the conservatives are growing and those who did not vote C last time due to the candidate have no problems going C this time. Castlegar, Alex's riding has strong C support and always has.
One of the union exec's from the local mill supports the C candidate not the NDP one. If Alex is not holding that vote he will not hold much.
08 09 09 non-partisan voter
Rob Zandee has been working the entire riding since his nomination back in March 2007. Major inroads have been made and if they can get their supporters to actually vote they will give the NDP a run for their money. Jim Gouk having the riding since 1993 has to say something for the leanings of the people (not counting the disaster of the last election).
08 05 10 BJ
During the next election, the Conservatives will be strong in the fast-growing South Okanagan as well as in the Similkameen valleys.
The NDP's strength lies in the Boundary country/West Kootenays, where the majority of the population now resides. NDP incumbency and the NDP-like demographics in that area, which are unique to BC's interior, will provide for an NDP hold.
08 05 02 Amor de Gordos
The riding will break strongly Conservative in the Okanagan, but strongly NDP in the Similkameen, Boundary, and West Kootenay regions - enough to easily put Atamanenko over the top. The Greens will only be a factor in the Kootenay area, though not enough so to prove spoilers on Election Day.
A visit to the riding by Jack Layton during the campaign (a strong likelihood, in my view) will lock up this riding tight as a drum for the NDP, albeit with a slightly reduced percentage of the popular vote (to about 40-42%) versus 2006.
Barring some massive alterations in the electoral boundaries, anyone forecasting a Tory resurrection in this riding is dreaming in Technicolor.
08 04 03 centreright
The last results are not indicative of future results, because the lack of a Conservative candidate. Atamanenko may be nice but really hasn't brought any goodies to the riding, except for some passport clinics. (while the CPC riding next door gets a permanent passport office). I believe it is true that it'll be an east vs west result, with the towns of Nelson/Rossland providing the challenge to the the Conservatives that they come across in most urban areas (concern over social issues such as health, education, child care), and the rural Boundary coming in strongly CPC (as farmers are in effect business owners, and business owners like lower taxes and a strong economy). The CPC might have been better off fielding a candidate from the Nelson region, as they're likely to carry the Boundary regardless. Zandee will have some work to do becoming known and liked in the East. I wonder what the population growth pattern has been between the east and the west, and how many of the newcomers are from the cities
08 03 20 R.O.
Still think this riding is very competitive and one that could possibly return to the conservatives for several reasons. First and most obvious is that during the last election there was no conservative candidate here even though Derek Zeisman stayed on the ballot he had been dropped by the party. Second the conservatives are doing good in the polls in bc, usually ahead in most polls by a good margin over the other parties. Just don?t see how they couldn?t be competitive in this riding and candidate Robert Zondee not have a chance. Third this riding was previously held by the alliance/conservatives from 1993-2006 when Jim Gouk was mp. Well It does have some ndp roots it was anything but a stronghold as it bounced back and worth between the pc and ndp during those years.
Well Alex Atamanenko could still hold on here it is at the very least likely competitive.
08 03 02 A.S.
Even before the Zeisman scandal turned it into a Dipper coronation, this looked like an NDP version of Chatham-Kent-Essex or Lambton-Kent-Middlesex: CPC incumbent suffers a shock squeaker, then retires, clearing a path for he who nearly squeaked him out of Parliament. Now, it may simply depend on how much (if any) great incentive there is to turf Atamanenko out of office, perhaps tied into skepticism over whether the NDP's worth it in the first place--and of course, given past record, it's also a seat worth monitoring for whatever effect Greens have on NDP, or whatever counter-effect NDP has on the Greens. Wouldn't be surprised if this now becomes an NDP version of Saanich-Gulf Islands...
07 11 30 binriso
Seems odd to me that despite Derek Zeisman's smuggling conviction and other legal troubles he still got 9000 votes and almost 2nd place. Harper even disowned him saying that even if he won he wouldn’t be allowed in government. Aren’t the conservative types the ones who are supposed to be tough on crime, and then they voted for a criminal to represent them? Did the voters who vote CPC here even pay attention to the election?
07 11 07 R.O.
i remember when this riding made headlines during the last election as the one where conservative candidate Derek Zeisman had to drop out midway thru election. so a new conservative candidate combined with past support in this region of bc makes this a much closer race than last election . In the last election ndp candidate Alex Atamanenko won by default so next election this one will be an interesting one to watch.
07 04 17 Steve L.
do recall that even Jim Gouk, the previous Conservative incumbent, barely eked out a victory here back in 2004. while i can still see the Conservatives winning here, they have a lot of catching up to do.
07 04 13 M. Lunn
While its true most rural areas generally go Conservative, this is not really a conservative area. Jim Gouk in 2004 only won by 600 votes and provincially the Eastern half of the riding went massively NDP. While some may say provincial and federal politics are different, if people dislike Gordon Campbell because they feel he is too right wing economically, why would they not feel the same way about Stephen Harper. While it is true Harper is a social conservative while Gordon Campbell is not, this is not exactly a bastion for social conservatism so while this won't hurt Harper it won't help him. I expect the Western parts to go back to the Conservatives, but the Eastern half of the riding should stay NDP, so it all comes down to margins.
07 04 12 Brian Appel
Harper is too high in the polls and this riding is way too rural to be held by Atamanenko, a nice guy but a man seriously out of place here. I second the statement that the Conservative candidate dropping out last time meant that this riding, which is ‘nowhere land’ for the Grits, would go to the NDP by default. Fielding even a half-decent candidate means that rural British Columbians are going to flock back to Harper and this riding is going blue.
07 04 11 Pundit
This riding is not an easy one for the NDP to hold. The 2006 election is not really an indication of the reality of the riding as the Conservative Candidate was not a real candidate or accepted by the Conservatives.
There are a lot of voters out there that would have voted CPC in 2006 but voted NDP.
2004 saw a very close race here - since the NDP's fortunes have been downhill and the Conservatives up.
Alex Atamanenko is a nice guy, but he is a neutral impact on the race. His incumbency will be worth a bit, but not huge amounts. He will be in trouble if the issue of uranium mining becomes an issue. His riding is home to a decent sized deposit and a lot of Greens. The Ndp nationally is not opposed to uranium mining.
07 04 11 Daniel
This one could be close; Atamanenko was handed this riding on a silver platter in 2006 after the CPC candidate was barred from the party for his criminal history. If the Tories run a half-decent (meaning 'non-criminal') candidate, they'll mount a serious challenge to Atamanenko.
07 03 30 Amor de Gordos
Jack Layton may be slipping in the polls nationally, but this riding will be an easy hold for the NDP. Alex Atamanenko has been an inoffensive and reasonably popular MP since his election in January 2006. The Conservatives still have a strong base of support in the Southern Okanagan portion of the riding, but this will not be nearly enough to put them over the top - particularly now that they have nominated Robert Zandee, a candidate who has been described by some as unfriendly, uninspirational and even a bit arrogant. As for the Liberals and Greens, they will (as always) both make reasonable showings, but will retain also-ran status. I expect the Tories will take second place. The only surprise here might come if the Greens, buoyed by the increasing popularity of environmental issues, surpass the Liberals to take third place - something they have never succeeded in doing to this point.

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