Election Prediction Project
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Southern Interior
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
1:48 PM 6/8/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
6:37 PM 18/03/2004

Constituency Profile
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Alex Atamanenko
Parti Marijuana Party:
Karine Cyr
Jim Gouk
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Scott Leyland
Canadian Action canadienne:
Farlie Paynter
Robert Schuster
Brian Sproule
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Doug Stanley

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Okanagan-Coquihalla (10.2%)
Stockwell Day
Kootenay-Boundary-Okanagan (89.8%)
Jim Gouk

2000 Result/Résultats:
20,878 47.97%
11,545 26.53%
4,274 9.82%
2,625 6.03%
4,197 9.64%

(28/220 polls, 6990/74124 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(187/199 polls, 61250/64232 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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06/06/04 Steven Hurdle
Email: [hidden]
The NDP were forever damaged here due to Corky Evans who, as a logger, alienated the environmental vote early on. The Greens here are well organised, at least in the Nelson/Creston area, and have been for a while. The riding has changed since the last election but still incorporates some of the Greens' strongest areas from the last federal and provincial elections. This riding is not a slam dunk for any party, I believe, and may even have been one of the two ridings that Ipsos-Reid had the Greens leading in, in the poll released yesterday (the other most likely being Saanich-Gulf Islands). The Conservaties may well keep it, expect British Columbians to vote for the Conservatives in greater numbers on election day than polls predict, as they did for Reform and the Alliance, but expect the Greens to be challengers.
05/06/04 Mike
Email: [hidden]
Well, if the new Ipsos-Reid poll is correct, then this seat looks like it will be going to the Greens. According to the poll, the Greens have 13% support in the province, which translates to 2 seats. If this is the case, this riding will be one of the two. The area is very concerned with Environmental issues, and the Green Party got over 6.5% here last time around, the highest total (i believe) it got in the province. Now don't let that number fool you, the Greens polled 6.5% when they were at a much lower total in the province last election. I know the prediction that would amke the most sense is Conservative, but I just have this feeling it will be a Green steal.
03/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Somewhat shallower soil than the usual ReformAlliance-dominant Interior/Okanagan seat--pre-93, this territory would have been PC/NDP swing, and a little of that "Corky Evans" populism could well rekindle NDP hopes. Except that this has often and again been a serious *Green* target as well. And as for the Liberals--while they nearly beat Gouk in 1993, today they really need NDP traitors like Lyle McWilliam or Bill Barlee to get them going. Against an assumed 3-way snarled opposition, what is now Southern Interior looks to remain in Conservative lockstep--for now. But with Kamloops (does Skeena count?), it's the Interior seat technically most within opposition radar...
30/04/04 Mike D
The Conservative slide in the polls puts even some Interior seats into play. The incumbent, Jim Gouk, is one of the weaker Conservative MPs who won't survive if the NDP grabs the populist "flag" for BC.
24/03/04 Bernard
Email: bernard@shama.ca
I figure the return of the CPC, but make the following comments on the riding.
This was one of the few ridings in 2000 were the Liberal vote went up, and in this case dramatically. This was because Bill Barlee, author, TV show host, one time NDP cabinet minister ran for the Liberals. The Liberal vote in 2000 was almost all Barlee vote.
This time look to the NDP being second with 25-30% and a Green to take 15% of the vote (and I think put a Liberal into fourth place)
20/03/04 Mike D
Email: [hidden]
This is not a terribly conservative area. Look at the provincial voting patterns, many of these areas often vote NDP provincially, especially in the eastern half of the riding. By the way, this riding looks almost gerrymandered the way it snakes across BC. The Conservatives will likely hold this, but the NDP will run strong here (a provincial poll has the BCNDP leading by ten points in the Southern Interior).
17/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
This is in the heart of Conservative BC. It will vote as such

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