Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Kelowna-Lake Country

Prediction Changed
2009-08-27 11:20:00

Constituency Profile


Cannan, Ron

Hooper, Alice

Kalmanovitch, Tisha

Stewart, Kris

Ron Cannan

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • kelowna (220/243 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 03 30 M. Lunn
    The Central Okanagan is one of the most consevative areas in the BC Interior. A large senior affluent senior population and a small union base bode well for the Tories. This has never gone NDP either provincially or federally and with the Liberal weakness in BC, they may come in second, but a very distant second.
    09 11 28 R.O.
    This part of bc is a fairly conservative area politically and considering they still lead in the polls here its safe to say Ron Cannan has the advantage as he's the incumbent . and its not even clear who his main opponents would be as most of the parties have yet to nominate. it is also one of the green parties better riding as they got over 7000 votes here but there likely to run a different candidate here so they may not do as good . and were unlikely to see much of a liberal push here for a while as they've fallen back here and no longer as competitive as before .
    09 09 13 A.S.
    What's interesting here is that NDP/Lib/Green were bunched up within 1.5 points of each other, over 40 points behind Cannan. Kind of like a BC CPC transcription of what happened in Bloc Quebecois strongholds like Montcalm, Repentigny, Vercheres. Speaking of which, it's safe to say that if CPC loses Kelowna, they're headed for fewer seats than the Bloc...
    09 08 26 JJ
    Kelowna is a centre-right stronghold, both federally and provincially, so this will be returned to CPC by usual wide margins.
    09 08 26 Sean P.F.
    Rural British Columbia is Conservative Country. While they have lost ground in Skeena-Bulkley Valley and BC Southern Interior, every other riding is a safe Conservative victory.

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