Prediction Changed
3:51 PM 07/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Kelowna-Lake Country
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Cabott, Diana
Cannan, Ron
Haley, Mark
New Democratic
Lakes, Tish
Reid, Angela

Ron Cannan

2006 Result:
Ron Cannan
Vern Nielsen
Kevin M. Hagglund
Angela Reid
David Thomson

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 03 06 R.O.
Actually this riding was on the liberal radar back in 2006 as the riding was vacant as longtime mp Werner Schmidt had retired. And before that election liberals had brought a lot of high profile liberals into this riding, even holding a cabinet meeting. And of course the famous Kelowna accord was signed here as well. But it all didn’t seem to do much good for liberal Vern Nielsen as new conservative candidate Ron Cannan got elected. Liberals have a new candidate Diana Congver but now that mp is more well known and this has been a conservative area it’s a likely cpc hold
08 02 03 A.S.
There's always been an underlying Judy Tyabji-ness about Kelowna that suggests it isn't so cut-and-dried hardnosed-conservative as it may appear: had Paul Martin maintained his 2003 popularity into the 2004 election, a seat like this might well have appeared on the Liberal radar screen. Now, though, it's an utterly unlikely pickup even if Tony Valeri parachuted his way in as ‘Jerry Kelowna’.
07 04 22 C. Smith
The only way I can see this riding voting for anyone other than the Conservatives in the next 10 years is if the economy takes a major nose dive. Residents in Kelowna are generally very well off. While the town is probably getting somewhat younger, it is still dominated by retired, or nearly retired conservative voters. Even bad policy choices by the Conservatives for a term would likely not cost them this riding because most people in Kelowna are well off enough that changes in government policy do not really affect them. Barring some scandal hitting the local Conservative, this is about as safe a Conservative riding as there is in BC.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
The Central Okanagan unlike most interior ridings has never at either the provincial or federal level elected an NDP member. That means only the Liberals could potentially take the Tories down here and for that to happen they would have to become extremely unpopular. If the Tories are in power for a long period of time and do some really unpopular things, this might become vulnerable, but for now the Tories should easily hold this one.

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