Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

British Columbia Southern Interior

Prediction Changed
2009-08-27 11:19:00

Constituency Profile


Atamanenko, Alex

Hill, Stephen

Hunt, Bryan

Lavell, Shan

Alex Atamanenko

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • okanagan-coquihalla (28/220 Polls)
  • kootenay-boundary-okanagan (187/199 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    Based on the fact the Tories got in the mid 30s in both 2004 and 2008, it looks like they will get this again while many Green and Liberal voters will probably go NDP to keep the Tories out. The Tories will do well in the western parts as mentioned in the previous part, especially in Osoyoos where I expect them to get over 50% and beat the NDP by a large margin, but the Eastern parts which have more people should go solidly NDP and in some places like Nelson I wouldn't be surprised if the NDP gets close to 70% if enough vote strategically. Either way the NDP's dominance in the Eastern part will more than offset the Tory dominance of the western part.
    11 04 04 J. Plant
    M. Lunn is right, this a very diverse riding despite being relatively small in area by BC standards. Voters seem really not into this election. I haven't seen any signs on private property yet for any party. Alex got signs up on the roads pretty quick, while it took Hill over a week to do the same.
    Hill is making efforts in the Boundary (Midway mill proposel) but that area is already kinda Conservative. Last election the CPC only won Keremeos, Osoyoos, and Oliver. Princeton and Grand Forks were tied. Every town and most villages in the West Kootenays went NDP. This includes the big three- Trail, Castlegar and Nelson. If you cant win any of them then you can't win this riding.
    Unions are fairly strong here and the fact that Alex speaks fluent Russian plays well among the older Doukhoubour voters in GF, C-gar and its rural valley areas.
    It might be closer then last time but this should be a fairly striaghtforward NDP hold.
    11 04 05 M. Lunn
    Like the Mountain West in the US, each mountain range you cross leads to a different political perspective thus making this a rather diverse riding. The Okanagan portion in around Osoyoos is quite Conservative while the large Dhukobour population in Grand Forks and Castlegar who live a communal lifestyle, the heavy unionization in Castlegar and Trail, the ski resort in Rossland, and large draft dodge community in Nelson create a strong centre-left community in the Eastern part of the riding at both the provincial and federal level despite the fact most of the Interior is quite Conservative. An edge to the NDP, but there is an outside chance of a Tory pickup.
    09 11 18 MMM
    On Nov. 8, Stephen Hill, a Rossland/Grand Forks financial advisor, won the Conservative nomination away from Rob Zandee, who was the Tory candidate in the 2008 federal election. Hill is a much better (and less divisive) public speaker than Zandee, but word around town is that Hill has a few financial skeletons in his closet. It's hard to know how legit those rumours are - lots of investors lost lots of money during the 08-09 downturn, so it may just be sour grapes. Regardless, Alex Atamanenko has been a decent MP, and he's generally well-liked by voters. If/when he runs again, it would take a miracle for Hill to pull off an upset. My guess is it ain't gonna happen. Prediction: NDP 45%, Tories 35%, Greens 15%, Liberals 5%. NDP hold.
    09 10 30 R.O.
    This is won where the conservatives might still have a chance even though it appears to be safe ndp territory. just when considering the fact the riding is rural , western and in british columbia a province where the cpc leads in the polls. it also has historically bounced back and forth between the ndp and conservative parties and with the ndp polling less than last eelction they may have a hard time holding on to some of the closer seats they won. but its tough to say what will happen here and the conservatives have yet to pick a candidate . Last elections candidate who came in a strong second Rob Zandee wants to run again but 2 new potential candidates Stephen Hill and Meagan Salekin have also entered the race. but i think the race here is far from over yet and it be another close conservative vs ndp battle whenever the next election is.
    09 10 24 JS
    The Conservatives are going through their nomination process right now. If the young woman from Castlegar makes it through, my bet is on the Conservatives breaking the NDP hold. If they have the same candidate as last time, nothing will change.
    09 08 26 DL
    This went NDP by a wide margin last time and Tory support has no where to go but down in BC after they had 44% of the vote province wide a year ago. NDP hold.

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