Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner


Prediction Changed
2015-03-23 23:02:05
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Allan, Glen

Hillyer, Jim

Smith, Brent

Turner, John Clayton

Weir, Erin


Population/populations
(2011 census)

102847


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

2565968.70%
557914.94%
416511.15%
16594.44%
Other 2880.77%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Medicine Hat
   (152/206 polls, 76.52% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
LaVar Payne
20028
4641
3837
1408
Other172


   Lethbridge
   (47/206 polls, 18.93% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Jim Hillyer
5509
739
244
238
Other101


   Macleod
   (7/206 polls, 4.55% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
John Barlow
122
199
84
13
Other15



 


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15 09 29 A.S.
99.233.125.239
The draggy recent CPC pattern's worth noting--LaVar Payne never really emerged from the shadow of Monte Solberg; and Jim Hillyer, of course, was Lethbridge's notorious 'invisible candidate' in 2011. (And another interesting left-field factor in 2011: Medicine Hat mayor Norm Boucher as Payne's Liberal opponent.) Now Hillyer's carrying it all, but...shucks, this is rural Alberta. Maybe it'd have been in trouble back when the NDP were neck-and-neck with the federal Cons province-wide; but certainly not now...
15 05 23 Bza
205.206.232.60
Despite The Hat going ND in the provincial election, it was a low margin of victory and the other risings went wild rose by large margins. A Conservative hold.
15 03 25 Dr Bear
174.89.199.19
With only 69% of the vote, this is relatively low for the CPC in Alberta outside Edmonton & Calgary. Easy CPC hold.
15 03 23 JW
99.232.118.35
Medicine Hat was actually one of the two rural Alberta ridings that last elected a non-Conservative/PC/Reform/Alliance MP. Bud Olson, agriculture minister in the Trudeau era, was last elected as a Liberal in this riding in 1968 (thought he was first elected as Social Credit in 1957). Interesting trivia no doubt, but Medicine Hat will continue to be solid Conservative territory this time around like the rest of the rural Alberta ridings.



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