Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-24 10:19:00

Constituency Profile


Bartlett, Cailin

Capp, Geoffrey

Cormican, Michael

Hillyer, Jim

Sandilands, Mark

Rick Casson

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • lethbridge (205/208 Polls)
  • macleod (7/178 Polls)
  • medicine-hat (2/204 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 25 rsg
    Some Albertans may take offense to thiis comment, but will likely agree. With the voting patterns of Albertans and not just Lethbridge over the last 80 years, and i know this is still a democracy but one would have to say why bother running any other candidates against the Conservatives because they are all pretty much slam dunks on election night, why bother challenging when the result is pretty much a foregone conclusion. It really must be tough if your one of the other parties candidates trying to go door to door and canvassing in these ridings. Federal elections in alberta and saskatchewan are just not competitive enough at all to be interesting. No Federal party leader has visited Calgary in this election.
    11 04 17 C.A.B.
    The Liberals went after this riding in 2004, with the provincial Liberal leader actually resigning his safe seat and cushy position as Leader of the Opposition for what would be a wild gamble even if the sponsorship scandal never happened. He barely got over 20%, and was 40 points behind Tory incumbent Rick Casson. In the last election, the Liberals came in third behind the NDP, and lost their deposit. Meanwhile, the Tories won every poll in the riding, even in Lethbridge proper. Provincially, the Liberals are competitive; federally, this is a Tory lock.
    11 03 29 M. Lunn
    Rick Casson may not be running again and this does include the university of Lethbridge, however this also includes some of the most religous and most conservative towns in Alberta in the rural portions thus the Tories will win the Lethbridge portions and the massive margins in the rural sections only means a Tory landslide.
    10 03 06 R.O.
    Longtime Conservative mp Rick Casson is going to retire but this is a rural alberta riding so the conservatives still have the advantage here and in past elections have done a good job of keeping open seats in alberta when mp's retire. the big question here is who will win the conservative nomination as in a riding like this you have to imagine that it will be contested and attract a fair bit of interest. the opposition might focus a bit more attention here but this is alberta so the margin they'd need to overcome is significant. anyways i just don't see the ndp or liberals doing that much better here even without the longtime mp running. a few potential candidates have also come forward including Mark Sandilands previous ndp candidate and Mark Switzer for the conservatives.
    09 08 24 EP
    Regardless of the ups and downs of national trends, Alberta continues to favour the Conservative Party with 60% or more. That number can only be higher once we take Edmonton into account. Unless the Wildrose Alliance starts to field federal candidates, this rural Alberta riding wills stay in the “solidly Conservative column for the foreseeable future.

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