Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
11:59 AM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:40 PM 14/03/2004

Constituency Profile
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Rick Casson
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Erin Matthews
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Ken Nicol
Parti Marijuana Party:
Dustin Sobie
Melanee Thomas
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Ken Vanden Broek

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Lethbridge (98.8%)
Rick Casson
Macleod (1.0%)
Hon. Grant Hill
Medicine Hat (0.2%)
Monte Solberg

2000 Result/Résultats:
30,240 66.06%
7,704 16.83%
4,083 8.92%
2,634 5.75%
1,114 2.43%

(205/208 polls, 74180/74430 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(7/178 polls, 728/70056 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Medicine Hat
(2/204 polls, 180/71421 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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23/06/04 Les
Email: [hidden]
The Liberal Party looks to pull off an upset in Lethbridge, and are gaining steam with each coming day. If Ken is able to appeal to NDP voters that just switched, victory is very possible. Rick is running a not amazing campaign, and he has a good chance of coming off as overconfident. Ken VandenBroek is eroding his traditional support of conservative christian voters, and Ken Nicol should not be overlooked. Expect an upset.
23/06/04 Mark
Email: [hidden]
If this was a provincial election, Ken Nicol would be in (with my full support), but federally, its going Conservative. Watching the signs go up, Casson was up quickly, all on private property. Liberal, NDP and Green seemed to follow at least a week later, and mostly on public land. The 'Bible-belt' portion of the riding is mostly Conservative, otherwise CHP, and the urban part seems about 40% Conservative (rest is split equally) - this will end up Conservative. Another term provincially might have given Nicol the support to turn Alberta red, but he jumped too soon.
20/06/04 Marc
Email: [hidden]
Ken Nicol is running a very strong campaign based upon electing him as a person.
Many people think that there is no chance in hell for a liberal to win in this so-called 'bible-belt' but in fact, provincially, more people have voted liberal in the two lethbridge ridings in EVERY election since 1993.
Nicol had a strong party machine behind him locally and provincially as he developed his campaign for the leadership of provincial liberals.
He shouldnt looked over so quickly.
30/03/04 ass
Email: [hidden]
This will clearly go Conservative. With the CPC running as high as they are in the polls, they will likely sweep. Nicol is a longshot at best, and with the nomination of former University of Lethbridge SU President Melanie Thomas, a long time resident and high profile student leader, expect the NDP to siphon off campus votes. CPC 60% Libs 30% NDP 10%...
17/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
This is rural Alberta, there is no way it's going anything other than Conservative, despite the popularity of the Liberal candidate.
16/03/04 N.C.
Email: nairn@canada.com
I guess it's a case of 'seemed like a good idea at the time' for Ken Nicol. The (former)leader of the Alberta Liberals maybe fancied his chances before the current deluge that has swamped the Martin government, but now, his chances are (approximately) nil. Surveys have shown that name recognition and personal popularity can only boost a campaign by about 5 percentage points, let's be generous and give Nicol double that, due to his clear popularity in the area. Sadly, for the Liberals, that only takes Nicol to about 27% of the vote.
NDP supporters will not vote for a Liberal from the right-wing of the party, and the NDP vote is too small in the riding to be useful to Nicol.
Ken Nicol won't break 30%, and won't take this riding.
CPC win.
01/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
This riding is going to be a close fight. The former Liberal leader provincially will run here, and if he can gather votes from New Democrats, he may be able to upset. Right now, however, it looks to me like the Conservatives will hold this riding, and therefore, that's how I am calling this one... for now

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