Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Medicine Hat

Prediction Changed
2009-08-24 10:19:00

Constituency Profile


Boucher, Norm

Murray, Graham

Payne, LaVar

Perrier, Dennis Albert

VandeStroet, Frans

LaVar Payne

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • medicine-hat (200/204 Polls)
  • macleod (2/178 Polls)
  • wild-rose (3/251 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 17 C.A.B.
    Monte Solberg proved his considerable personal following with his retirement, and the nine-point decline in share without him had to be one of the highest in the country for the Tories outside of Newfoundland. Now it's just your typical Rural Alberta riding with the twist of a large urban centre (like Red Deer or Lethbridge). The Liberals did win here in 1968, though just barely, and that took the combined strength of both Trudeaumania and a Socred-turned-Liberal incumbent. The mayor of Medicine Hat may be running for them this time, but it's an uphill climb, as they lost their deposit in 2008. I don't expect him to do better than Ken Nicol (popular MLA and Leader of the Opposition) did in Lethbridge in 2004. In other words, 20% and 40 points behind Payne is his best case scenario.
    11 04 05
    FYI: Norm Boucher, the Mayor and former police chief of Medicine Hat is running for the Liberals in this riding. This could make things more interesting.
    11 03 29 M. Lunn
    The Tories have gotten above 70% in all of the last three elections, no reason to expect any change here.
    09 10 12 binriso
    Outside Edmonton, voters have given a right wing party every seat for 37 years of elections 1972-2009. And it sure isn?t changing this time barring some miracle or a 1968 style election (where the Liberals actually won this seat as part of 4 in Alberta).
    09 09 26 A.S.
    Well, Medicine Hat *was* an interesting riding last time, if only because in Solberg's absence, the Tory share dropped by 9 points (5 of which went to CHP and a pair of independents). But in the rawest ‘who's gonna win’ sense: yes, it's uninteresting.
    09 09 17 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Umm...error on the left over there. Monte Solberg isn't the MP, it's LaVar Payne. Why hasn't anyone noticed this mistake yet? Probably because such a riding is very uninteresting from an electionprediction point of view. The CPC has it locked.
    09 08 24 EP
    Regardless of the ups and downs of national trends, Alberta continues to favour the Conservative Party with 60% or more. That number can only be higher once we take Edmonton into account. Unless the Wildrose Alliance starts to field federal candidates, this rural Alberta riding wills stay in the “solidly Conservative column for the foreseeable future.

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