Prediction Changed
10:38 AM 28/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Christian Heritage
Capp, Geoffrey
Casson, Rick
Cormican, Michael Joseph
New Democratic
Sandilands, Mark
Swagar, Amanda

Rick Casson

2006 Result:
Rick Casson **
Melanee Thomas
Michael Cormican
Andrea Sheridan
Marc Slingerland
Howard Forsyth

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 02 19 A.S.
It's worth noting what happened in Ken Nicol's absence; the NDP's Melanee Thomas scored a surprisingly peppy and perhaps unforeseen 13.7% second-place result--impressive, at least, for this particular geography. Hey, NDP moral victories wherever you can find them...
08 01 13 R.O.
Long time mp Rick Casson proved his electabilty by beating one of the strongest liberal contenders ever ran in rural alberta , former mla and alberta liberal leader Ken Nicol. in next election liberals are running Michael Cormican again who came in 3rd last election and was beat by ndp candidate. but agree this riding has urban part to it as it includes city of lethbridge but its still alberta .
07 09 29 Nick J Boragina
The former Alberta Liberal provincial leader ran here back in 2004. He was smashed. Not even close. Add to that a history of voting right-wing (the provincial riding of the Alberta Alliance leader is within this federal riding) and you get a CPC win.
07 09 20 binriso
Even with star candidate and longtime MLA candidate Ken Nicol, the Liberals could not get above 25% here in 2004, although he brought it to a respectable 40 point margin(!). Expect another big Rick Casson win about 50% of everyone else and close to 70% for himself. The Christian Heritage party always seems to do decently well here too, for being a fringe party.
07 04 01 GM
Ancastarian, why do you refer to places like Lethbridge and Red Deer as rural ridings? These cities might not be Toronto, but they're growing at immense speed - referring to this as a rural riding is like referring to Barrie as a rural riding. (or Regina or Saskatoon for that matter)
I do agree with your prediction though as Casson should win by over 30,000 votes and Bob Mills in Red Deer will win by 35,000.
07 03 25 Ancastarian
A rural Alberta riding - guaranteed slam-dunk for the Conservatives.

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