Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:30:25

Constituency Profile


Banville, Lorraine

Lametti, David

LeBlanc, Hélène

Paquette, Gilbert

Zamir, Mohammad

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 3920.80%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (117/254 polls, 50.12% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hélène LeBlanc

   Jeanne-Le Ber
   (133/254 polls, 49.87% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Tyrone Benskin

   (2/254 polls, 0.01% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Marc Garneau


Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

15 10 16 South Islander
Now that the Liberals have recovered most of their support in Montreal, they should be able to take this riding. They have a solid candidate, a bilingual McGill law professor, and simply have a more experienced party organization on the ground.
15 10 17 JC
Many recent polls have put the liberals slightly ahead of the NDP, the Liberals should win this riding.
15 10 17 DSR
SRG, being low profile or indeed entirely absent didn't seem to prevent candidates getting elected in Quebec in 2011!
15 10 13 SRG
The NDP candidate in the area is very visible, whereas I haven't seen anything from the Liberal or Conservatives. The Bloc will probably get a few votes, being that this is a very Francophone area, but I don't feel they are as strong as in past years.
15 10 10 Dan B.
NDP is 15% behind in comparison to 2011 in Quebec. The Bloc is floating with the same percentages they had at the last election. This suggests that a strong proportion of the undecided francophone vote is leaning liberal and they are ready to give Justin Trudeau a chance. In this riding (60% francophone)the liberals should take it with a comfortable majority.
15 09 30 Teddy Boragina
A week or so ago, a dozen or two Quebec ridings were changed to the NDP here at the EPP. Since then, the NDP has dropped in the polls in Quebec.
There are a number of ridings currently predicted to go NDP that could go to another party if polls continue to drop. They are:
Pierre-Boucher, Salaberry, Abitibi, Beauport, Charlesbourg, Rimouski, Louis Hebert, and LaSalle.
In this riding in particular... I commented recently to be weary, and reiterate those comments.
15 09 27 Dan B.
Clearly, the battle is not over in this riding. The new way they have cut borders plays in favor of the liberal candidate, McGill law professor David Lametti. The liberals should regain traditional PM Martin's support, lost to the NDP in 2011, in Lasalle and Emard section. The challenge for Lametti is getting a piece of the Francophone vote ine the Verdu section. If he gets 25% of it, especially with the fall of Mulcairs support in Quebec, his chances are excellent. I think he will.
15 09 22 Teddy Boragina
I'd urge caution here, the NDP, while currently polling enough to take this riding, has been slowly inching down in Quebec for the past 10 days. Half of those voters seem to be going Liberal, which is the party that could take this riding if the NDP does not.
15 09 18 Nick M.
This is another riding where unless things change, must be moved from the TCTC column and toward the NDP. I believe that the bloc will lose 40% of their vote to NDP in most ridings, and the CPC will lose 40% of their vote to the CPC. Though a crude estimate, it allows me to gauge how competitive this riding should be. And it seems to be NDP. So NDP for now unless the Bloc kicks some butt at the debates.
15 09 14 A.S.
Despite its being the nominal successor to Paul Martin's seat, I wonder what the notional figures within these present boundaries might have been over the Martin years--it's got the feeling of something that might well have gone into the Bloc column even with Martin running (esp. in 2004/6). Which, of course, works to the NDP's favour today, unless West Island Liberalism transcends its Anglo manacle--and Lametti's certainly the kind of Grit poised to benefit from such likelihood, however slim said likelihood is.
15 08 27 PHYSASTR Master
308 has this at 93% certainty for the NDP, with them running away with the riding with a crushing 51% (which pretty much mirrors current province-wide numbers). Assuming the polls are even remotely close to right, this won't even be close. NDP win on the numbers.
15 06 03 2015
NDP are reopening a solid lead in Quebec, and they'll hold a lot of Montreal seats, including this one. With their support in the low 20s the Liberals do not have enough votes to win here especially with Bloc support weakening and unlikely to go Liberal.
15 03 28 monkey
While this is Paul Martin's former riding, the more Liberal friendly parts were lopped off while it picked up the more BQ friendly parts. Lets remember the Liberals came in third there last time so while they could win, I wouldn't call it so early, especially since Quebecers are unpredictable in their voting habits.
15 03 26 Fairview Resident
The Liberals are running a solid candidate here: McGill Law professor David Lametti, who won the nomination against three other candidates. Even if they weren't, the NDP don't have enough of a lead over the Liberals in Quebec (if they are even ahead at all) to hold seats that went Liberal (or were close) in 2004, 2006 or 2008. The Liberals will take this one back.
15 03 24 Philly D.
This new riding contains that part of the old Jeanne-Le Ber riding that was bad for the Liberals (Ville-Emard), and part of Verdun which went PQ in the 2012 provincial election, so this riding is certainly not one of the higher priorities on the Liberals 'must-gain' list and Ms Leblanc will certainly return to Ottawa, though perhaps not with a 13K majority.
Cette nouvelle circonscription regroupe deux secteurs plutôt difficiles pour les libéraux (Verdun sans l'Ile-des-Soeurs et Ville-Emard), donc Mme Leblanc ne devrait pas etre trop inquiétée, sauf peut-etre pour ce qui est de sa marge...
15 03 24 Dr.Bear
While it's fair to call this an NDP hold, I think the Liberals will retake this riding. The former BQ voting portions in Ville Emard and Verdun will keep supporting the nationalist-leaning NDP, while the more multi-ethnic LaSalle will revert back to the Liberals (though not to the extent of the Paul Martin days). While the NDP will have to concede most of their 2011 Island of Montreal gains, this is one where they still have an excellent shot. I say Liberal for now based on the current Montreal polling trends.

Navigate to Canada 2015 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2015
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Justice Quest Communications, 1999-2015 - Email Webmaster