La prévision a changé
11:37 AM 05/04/2007

Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2007

Profil de circonscription

Dufort, Guy
Garneau, Marc
Genest, Claude William
New Democratic
Lagacé Dowson, Anne
Bloc Québécois
Larivée, Charles
Rovins, David Sommer
Sloan, Bill
Sullivan, Linda
Vienneau, Judith

L'hon. Lucienne Robillard

2006 Résultats:
Lucienne Robillard **
Louise O'Sullivan
Eric Wilson Steedman
Sophie Fréchette
Julie Sabourin
Serge Lachapelle
Bill Sloan

prévision/résultats historiques
06 prévision /04 résultats
04 prévision /00 résultats

Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer.
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08 10 12 Boy Waffle
Canwest reports that the NDP have lowered their expectations to ‘gaining one to three seats’ in Quebec.

I interpret that as meaning that WVM is still competitive, despite Liberal (and BQ) resurgence in the province as a whole.
08 10 08 Joshua Zuckerman
On CTV's Quesion Period this weekend, Quebec analysts Jean Lapierre and Antonia Maioni predicted the high-profile Quebec races and said that Marc Garneau will win here.
08 10 07 Concordia Dipper
I don't mean to double post but I realized from something Dr Bear & Prof. Ape said in another riding that people outside of Montreal might have a misconception about this riding.
Despite having Westmount (our ultra rich district)in the name, Westmount itself is actually only a small part of this riding which covers most of downtown Montreal. In fact the vast majority of this riding is comprised of a mix of low income, immigrant and student housing. It is also an overwhelmingly anglophone riding, hence why the Bloc is such a non-factor here.
Anne Lagace-Dowson's campaign has been targeting the student vote heavily and students I have encountered at both the major universities in this riding are extremely receptive. Which makes sense given that NDP platform points such as lowering tuition, increasing grants and reducing student loan repayment resonate with students.
The attitude towards the NDP in this riding has changed dramatically (much as it did in Outremont before Mulcair won the by-election) and everyone now sees them as a real option. Even my friends in Garneu's campaign tell me that their polls show this riding as being a tie right now.
Time to change it to TCTC at least.
08 10 06 montrealais
Anne Legace-Dowson is a VERY strong candidate in Westmount-Ville Marie. It's a two-way race, and many people are looking to change their traditional voting patterns. I can tell you this from actually doing door-to-door canvassing and seeing the high levels of NDP support in the riding. Of course, the Liberals still have their strong base of support as well, but I believe this riding ought to be labelled ‘too close to call’: it's not going to be a Liberal cakewalk.
08 10 06 Concordia Dipper
The Prediction in this riding seems crazy to me. In the week before the debates the NDP went from 15% to 28% on the island of Montreal. In one week! All the polling data I've seen for this riding show it as a two way dogfight with Garneau and Lagace-Dowson in a virtual tie in the low thirties with none of the other candidates breaking 20%.
To me it's too close to call. Saying its a safe seat for the liberals however seems as if its a prediction made by someone without much knowledge of the riding.
The fact that the Conservatives and Bloc have no chance, and this is consequently a situation in which people won't vote strategically and can vote their conscience between Liberal and NDP hasn't been lost on anyone in this riding.
Students will come out in much higher numbers than before (given the NDP is the only party which addresses their issues) and this riding is full of students. Take a walk in downtown Montreal and talk to people and you'll see that this riding is very much in play for the NDP.
08 09 15
Cette circonscription devrait demeurer libérale. Même dans la partielle, où les électeurs en profitent souvent pour faire un vote de protestation, les libéraux étaient en avance. Désormais, nous avons une élection générale, qui détermine le choix d'un gouvernement. Madame Lagacé Dowson fera un bon score, mais ce ne sera pas assez pour déloger les libéraux.
08 09 14 Marco Ricci
While I realize that the NDP is doing better in Quebec than it has in the past and while I realize that the Liberals are not at their strongest, wouldn't it take a major movement for Westmount to go NDP? The NDP usually place way behind in this riding and the affluent demographics don't tend to favour it.
The NDP finished 3rd here in 2006 - 12,000 votes behind the Liberals. Even if the NDP candidate is stronger than usual, that's a big deficit to make up. I would assume that unless the NDP vote goes up quite a lot in Montreal that this riding will remain a bit out of reach.
08 09 13 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
To the Expo's fan (who makes very good points) I have to say that people know the CPC will win but will they get a majority or a minority is the question. Many people are okay with a CPC minority but not a majority. Actually I read recently that 4 out of 10 Canadians would vote strategically to block the CPC from a majority. Now WE (as in the arm chair pundits who populate this site) all know (at least those with some actual prespective) the the CPC will not take W-VM, but the average person on the street doesn't think like us. They don't look at riding by riding numbers or bother with any predictioneering nonsense like we do. No, they just hear the media say, ‘Tory's almost at majority territory’ and they're gonna cringe. Not all, but a significant number. Honestly it's something that the NDP should be worried about across the country if it really looks like a CPC majority.
08 09 13 Let's go expos
My Question, Dr. Bear: given that it becomes more clear that the tories are going to win, why would people from WVM have to park their votes with a Liberal even though they know the grits can't win the gov't?
Dufort, the tory, ain't winning here and everybody knows it. So why would people care if the riding goes orange or red? An opposition MP is an opposition MP.
Therefore, it becomes a candidate's contest; one that, after seeing this campaign from the ground, and throughout the entire byelection, Lagace Dowson has clearly won.
08 09 12 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
Alright Nick, I'll bite...I think you're crazy. I actually think it's the reverse scenerio where the NDP had a better chance in the by election (I still think the Grits would have won a by election). I can see the NDP being able to take this riding, I will concede that the NDP have a reasonable chance at taking this riding. The thing is with the prospect of a CPC majority many potential NDP voters will get cold feet and vote Liberal. I'm in Montreal at the moment (neighbouring NDG-Lachine) and the folks I've been hearing from (who are of similar demographics as the bulk of W-VM) are okay with a Harper minority but cool to the prospect of a Harper majority. These same people are ones who would have voted for Mulcair in the Outremont by election but say they will probably vote Liberal again. Having said what I did, I reserve my right to change my prediction at a moments notice. I will be in the riding this weekend and if I have anything new that is probative, I will report it. However if on Oct 14 I am proven wrong and the NDP win, Nick feel free to gloat all you want in the subsequent electionprediction-go-round.
08 09 11 Bugs Bunny
The Libs might have had a chance in a by-election, where they could focus on a star candidate and pull resources from across the city - but in a general, they are faced with a terrible organization, a weak leader, and Quebec poll numbers in the low teens. I don't think the NDP will win a lot of seats in Quebec, but I think this will be one of them.
08 09 11 Nick J Boragina
While the By-Election may have been won by the Liberals, now that we are into a general election campaign, the NDP has a better shot. Dion is still not well liked. That could change, but even if it does, he faces a rebellious, unorganized, and underfunded quebec wing of his party. Liberals dont have the feet on the ground, they are de-motivated. The NDP on the other hand is buoyed by their success in Outremont. People will call me crazy (as they did in 06 when I predicted 10 tories in Quebec... ahem) but the NDP will likely win this riding unless something changes.
08 09 10 expat
The shift from by-election to general election will have a huge impact here. Anne Legace Dowson and the NDP seemed potentially poised for a Sept 8 upset -- strong organisation and energy from all indications I've seen and heard in the riding. The Liberal campaign seemed like a perfunctory effort that assumed their ‘star candidate’ would win.
All the campaigns will now have to re-gear their campaigns from a low turnout by-election to a much different higher turnout national election, where the voters are more likely to move based on the party leaders, the debates, the national issues and trends - upsets are harder in a general election than a by-election.
The NDP could still take this -- but it would depend on Jack Layton campaigning hard and performing well in Quebec, weakness by Dion and the Liberals, and voters who sometimes choose the Bloc opting for the NDP instead (whether through strategic voting or attraction to the party platform).
At the moment, odds favour Garneau and the Liberals, but this will clearly remain a NDP target and could surprise us when the votes are counted.

By-election Prediction

08 09 02 JKY
Nanos and CROP both came out with polls last week showing overall support in Quebec for the NDP doubling. Since I suspect much of this increased support is on the Island of Montreal, I believe there will be interesting changes once Harper goes to the GG this week. Not only will the NDP win Westmount, and hold Outremont, but have an excellent chance of picking up a couple more. The Bloc is tanking with their irrelevance increasingly obvious to all. The BQ votes are splitting evenly between the NDP, (mostly Montreal) and the Cons. (esp rural and Quebec City region.) The Liberals are stagnating at best.
08 08 28 GTY
It's a two way race between the Liberals and the NDP and the NDP is going to take it.
Not only are voters who voted for other parties going to switch to the NDP like they did in Outremont a year ago, but also a large block of voters who voted for the Liberal incumbent in 2006.
The reality is that Westmount Ville-Marie only appears to be a safe Liberal seat because of the large block of voters who voted for Lucienne Robillard not because she was a Liberal, but because they were loyal to a candidate who had represented the riding since 1997. The longer a person is in office, the more they benefit from their incumbency.
But now there is no incumbent candidate for them to vote for. And in a two way race, the voters who were attracted to a high profile female cabinet minister in Lucienne Robillard are much more likely to vote for a high profile, but down to earth person like Anne Legace Dowson than they are for an astronaut.
If Harper waits until after September 8th before calling an election, he will enjoy the public spectacle the Liberals will put on like they did when they lost Outremont.
08 08 25 JKY
It'll be very interesting to see if Harper calls the General Election before this vote can be held. I have switched from No Opinion to NDP based on what I'm seeing on the ground after a two week visit to Montral ending last week. Impressive organizational effort by the dippers. I am ready to think they'll pull this one out in a dramatic fashion, like Outremont, but Closer. (If it isn't cancelled)
08 08 22 Bewitched
Just to set the record straight, I would never become a Young Liberal or even worse, vote Liberal for that matter. Just stating what I am hearing in my area. I guess some NDP'ers are a bit thin skinned when they hear critics.....
Like a said, the Liberals don't have an unbeatable lead, but with the by-election now more than likely being cancelled in favor of a general election for early October.....sending a message will be less of an option for the voters.....
08 03 01 Pierre from Québec
Former Mayor of Westmount, May Cutler, has announced she is endorsing Anne Lagace Dowson and the NPD in this by-election. It may not mean much, but it is clear that there is a wind of change in Westmount-Ville-Marie. With some more weeks of campaigning, I think the short advantage Mr. Garneau still has is getting smaller.
Don't forget the NPD has won the Outremount by-election with 48% of the vote against 29% for the Liberal candidate. And in the Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot by-election, the NPD got 7.9% against 7.4% for the Liberals. I think it is still Too Close To Call, but I'm sure in the end of the day, it is going to be a NPD gain.
Don't forget also that the Liberals went down more than 10% in the last federal election of 2006. If they go down another 10% this time, they lose.
My own prediction: NPD- 38% Liberal- 36% Conservative- 12% BQ- 10% Green- 7%
08 08 22 Mad Max
After reading the Bewitched post. The LPC are concerned about the strength of the NDP campaign. Move this one from LPC to TCTC. Bewitched post is a complete contradiction from an inside LPC activist who noticed that the NDP had its act together and that the LPC did not after one week into the campaign. The NDP would gladly accept his help while the LPC had nothing for this volunteer to do. The LPC Candidate had NASA to put him in space, but this time he is counting on the LPC to him in Ottawa.
It will take more then Magic to make Bewitched posted prediction to come true. It is TCTC.
08 08 22 MDF+
Funny thing about Bewitched's post. The ‘facts’ therein don't match any of the information I'm getting from folk on theb ground in W-VM.
This wouldn't be the first time I've seen a ‘disaffected New Democrat’ who turned out to be an ‘enthusiastic young Liberal.’
08 08 21 GSmith
Lagace Dowson just got a bunch of prominent endorsements: Charles Taylor, Desmond Morton, Julius Grey e.t.c... I know they are all NDP sympathizers-- Taylor was actually a candidate for the party back in the 1960s-- but they have always been silent before. What made them speak out now? Must feel the winds of change blowing...
Such support does not guarantee a win for the NDP, but it shows that a win is now a real possibility. This riding should TCTC!
08 08 20 Bewitched
Anne Lagace Dowson is certainly the strongest of the candidates here, unfortunately, her campaign is being run by the national NDP gang with no input from W-VM supporters. I offered to do door to door for her campaign, but was told only MP's or former MP's could do it. They offered me to do phone surveys.....
She came on my street with an outsider.... She is so much better of a candidate than Marc Garneau, but the Liberal campaign is run by W-VM voters. So he has a better grasp of issues affecting W-VM.
Dufort for the PC's and Larivee of the BLOC are also rans....Genest of the Green's is a good candidate but not running a strong enough campaign.
If Lagace-Dowson wants to win, and she has a better chance of winning this riding for the NDP than anybody before, she should start asking some of the National NDP managers to pack their suitcases. Then start getting some people from the riding, or at least from Montreal, their ideas on what should be done in the riding.
The Ottawa bunch are going around telling people it is a close race, if they were really listening to the voters, they would know the Liberals are still with a double digit lead, a lead that could be overtaken, but not with this type of attitude towards the W-VM voters.
This is giving the idea that Anne will be Ottawa's MP in W-VM instead of the other way around. As as woman I would have been very happy to have voted for her, but I will either sit this one out or vote Green.
Very very sad that such a good candidate is being brought down by her National party's big wigs who don't know diddly about our riding.....
I have, much to my chagrin, have to predict a Liberal hold on this one, hoping Anne Lagace-Dowson's sees the light before September 8th.....I would be so happy to see an upset in my neighbours would like to vote for her but have concerns on how she would handle issues being drown by the Ottawa NDP gang........
08 08 13 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
Paul Atarsus Re the Concordia & McGill student vote: as a former Concordia student myself let me assure you that the vast majority of the Concordia student body doesn't give a damn about the election (except for the nut-jobs that run the student union) and/or live in other Montreal area ridings. As for the McGill students in the McGill ghetto, they are equally apathetic. None the less, the student vote is very small in comparison to the riding majority which is found in Westmount and eastern NDG. Students will be a non-factor.
08 08 14 seasaw
Marc Garneau does not have to be approachable to win. He can take a trip to space during the campaign and still get about 50% of the vote. CPC and NDP may pick up a handful of vote but at the end of the day Marc Garneau will win big. Who will finish second? Does it really matter? This is probably the safest Liberal riding, Dion is very popular here as is Garneau. No contest.
08 08 12 MC
Look to the Greens to bar the NDP from winning in Westmount-Ville-Marie! I've seen some of the budget numbers in this riding talked about by the Greens and they're running a very strong candidate in Green deputy leader Claude, who is also an Emmy nominated T.V personality. This was also the strongest Green riding in the province in 2006.
The NDP are running an extraordinary campaign (I guess to make up for the recent by-election results) along with the Liberals.
My Prediction: LIB- 35% NDP- 28% CON- 15% GRN- 12% BLOC- 10%
08 08 11 Paul Atarsus
One major factor that everyone seems to have forgotton about is the student vote... with McGill and Concordia students unable to vote, Garneau loses a huge block of Liberal voters. This might just factor in to the final results in a way the Liberals haven't anticipated.
08 08 11 Sparkplug
The Conservative candidate seems to be kind of staying out of the race, hoping that the NDP can knock off Garneau. I've also heard that Garneau comes off as very unapproachable when he's meeting people and that he might be a bit too shy to be all that impressive when he's canvassing. Dowson, on the other hand, is very personable and is getting a lot of help from the big guns in Ottawa who smell Liberal blood.
I'm really interested in watching this race - It sounds like it could be very close.
08 08 10 MadCaper
I have been talking to some of my friends in the last month and they seem to think that this is going to be a race that is decided in the last week of the campaign. They say that the most surprising issue in the election to this point is the apparent collapse of the Bloc vote and the almost non-existence of a Bloc Campaign. This information leads me to believe that the P.C. and N.D.P.camps will pick up the Lions share of this vote with the remainder to be picked up by the Liberals, who do not seem to be a visible as one would think they should be with a so called strong candidate. The Greens will pick up little if any of the Bloc vote that swings. Based on these factors and the fact that the N.D.P. are on the rise in Quebec, i think that the N.D.P. will squeak a tight win of no more than 500 votes.
08 03 01 Pierre
Marc Garneau, the so called ?star candidate? in the 2006 elections failed to win a seat in another ridding by a big margin. I think he was the ?star candidate? with the biggest defeat margin in Canada.
Meanwhile, Anne Lagac? Dowson, a CBC radio host, is a new face for a ressurgent party in Qu?bec.
08 08 05 Paul Tremblay
I expect a Liberal win here for the following reasons :
-1- No matter what the NDP might want to believe, Anne Lagace Dawson is not Thomas Mulcair.
-2- Marc Garneau is not Jocelyn Coulon -- while I do disagree with those who claim that Garneau is a strong candidate, he is not weak like Coulon and this has to count as a major improvement for the Liberals compared to the Outremont by-election.
-3- The one major reason why Mulcair won the by-election in Outremont was that separatists voted for him instead of voting for the Bloc. Even if this phenomenon repeats itself in Westmount--Ville-Marie (and I don't expect it) there are not enough separatists to make a real difference.
-4- The Conservative campaign does not appear to be a factor and in any case their slogan (?Le Qu?bec prend des forces / Qu?bec is getting stronger?) is definitely not the way to steal enough Liberal votes to either win this seat or get the NDP to win it.
08 08 04 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
The first time I've been home in Montreal since the by-elections were called. I couldn't help but notice a striking absence of BQ posters (in contract with the plethora of Liberal, CPC and NDP posters). Might the separatists be strategically helping the NDP win once again in a riding they haven't any hope of winning? With a substantially smaller francophone population and the liberals with a true star candidate this time, I highly doubt it'll work (NDP will have a good showing though).
08 07 31 binriso
The Liberal Party appears stronger now than they did during the outremont byelection and Westmount Ville Marie is a much stronger seat for them, where other parties split the vote nicely. While the NDP are going to do well probably 30% or so, i dont think it will be enough to win.
Another wildcard in this race that no one mentions is the Greens candidate Claude Genest. He is one of the deputy party leaders and the Greens got almost 10% here last time. Hard to tell what kind of effect he will have on the race and who hell take votes from.
Although the Liberals will probably win, most of us thought they?d win Outremont and they lost badly. I think there will probably be about a 5-7% difference between the Liberals and NDP here, which isn?t a very confident prediction. But if they lose this one, there?s huge trouble for them in the next election(not that there isn?t any already).
08 07 30 david m.
for those of you who don't live here in westmount-ville marie, here are the three basic facts.
1. the riding includes eight different neighborhoods: the cite/jeanne mance area; the mcgill ghetto; the concordia ghetto; lower westmount; upper westmount; eastern ndg.
2. the jeanne mance/cite area is a good ndp/liberal/separatist mix; the mcgill and concordia ghettos will be very strongly ndp and liberal; lower westmount and ndg are liberal/ndp areas; upper westmount is strongly liberal, somewhat conservative and very weakly ndp.
3. the voting population of these neighborhoods is not equally distributed, lower westmount, upper westmount and the ndg portion essentially dominate the riding.
on the candidates:
1. anne lagace-dowson was the host of radio noon for something like 12 years, and really, if there's anyone who'll know her, it'll be westmount and ndg residents, particularly women. in that sense, yes, she's a bona fide star candidate. but not across the board: as with mulcair, her name and french are adequate to assuage francophone concerns about her representing them, but she's almost totally unknown in the francophone community (unlike mulcair, who was well known for his principled resignation from charest's cabinet).
2. garneau is a big time star, he's known and liked by the media types, he cuts a good profile, he speaks well and his vaudreuil kamikaze run in 2006 seems to have been forgotten. there does remain some lingering distaste for him because of all the controversies surrounding his appointment as candidate, but it's minor, and he'll have more than enough support to take the riding. he has a francophone profile, but given his 'canadian patriot' schtick and his association with the liberal brand, he'll not attract many francophone supporters away from the bloc.
3. the bloc candidate is a pure sacrifice. i was actually his teaching assistant last year, i'm not even sure he's graduated yet.
4. the conservative candidate is the x factor. is he another duguay, running for 4th place, or is he shooting for the win? my sense is that the guy will run a credible campaign, speak well and, as with duguay, their team will swallow the deep animus toward the filthy socialists, and train their fire on garneau and especially dion.
as i see it, in order for the ndp to win this one, three things must occur:
1. francophones must move en masse to the ndp from the bloc to the ndp, as they did in outremont. this could happen, given the bloc's candidate (shades of outremont, for sure), given the space that the ndp is coming to occupy in montreal federal politics, and given the inexplicably deep animosity for dion that exists among many francophones. lagace-dowson would need to move around 3000 votes from the bloc column to her own.
2. a large number of traditionally liberal voters must vote ndp. this is probably the place where the candidate makes a difference, because there will be a lot of westmount and ndg voters (especially older women) who feel as if they know (and like) her already. if she can keep herself from saying some of these things she's been firing off lately (i.e. if she can be a disciplined campaigner), these voters will consider voting for her, rather than voting liberal. also, young voters and minority voters who'd typically cast votes for the liberal will have to move to the ndp. she needs another 3000 of these votes.
3. some traditionally liberal voters must vote conservative. this is going to happen for sure, but candidate garneau will probably help staunch the bleeding. the conservative needs to run a strong campaign, including a stephen harper visit or two. for lagace-dowson to win, the conservatives must pull another 3000 votes away from the liberals.
4. lagace-dowson must run a fantastic gotv operation. this is the one things that is certain to occur. in outremont, e-day was wild, with several mps and hundreds of volunteers pulling voters - door to door! no phones, just knocking. it was something to behold, and with mulcair running the show this time, we should expect something similar.
5. finally, for the ndp to win this one, a lot of liberals have to be busy or apathetic. harper craftily set this one up so that the students would be back and voting would take place on a monday. two immediate reasons: mondays are typically pretty weak days for turnout among working types with children, and if the liberals lose, it'll play in the media all week long. so yeah, the calendar gives a light advantage to the ndp's gotv machine. it'll take more than that for the ndp to win, but it's essential to any scenario in which the ndp does win.
here's why i think garneau will still take it:
1. he's been working this riding assiduously, and it feels like the media is not on board the lagace-downson train as they were on the mulcair train. in effect, the francophone media was all in for mulcair, and that's neutralized this time around, because of lower interest, but also because westmount remains a no-go zone for the francophone media. if the ndp had picked a candidate with a higher profile in the french language media, it would have been a different story, but as it is, the only publications to service the areas of westmount and ndg (three small run local papers and the gazette) are fairly openly pro-liberal. all things equal, garneau wins, and things aren't even equal here, it's a climb for the ndp.
2. dion is not as unpopular in westmount and ndg as he is in other parts of montreal, quite the opposite. the more the media tees this up as dion's waterloo, the more w-vm voters will come home to the liberals. because of the peculiar history and demographics of westmount (anglo, wealthier, older, strongly lpc voting history), the media narrative is actually an ally for the liberals this time around. lagace-dowson will be treated fairly, but there'll be no question that garneau is the candidate of choice.
3. campaigning against dion as mulcair did won't work as it did in outremont because garneau is an eminently more credible candidate than coulon was. he's a veritable star and lends credibility to the liberal brand - in effect, all things being equal (and they're not, people are not pro-ndp), garneau will probably be the person most voters want to see in parliament.
4. there are probably not enough francophones in this riding to flip it to the ndp unless, as i noted, a large number of traditionally liberal voters abandon the lpc in favor of the ndp and conservative. this sort of liberal wipeout is a necessity for an ndp victory, and given the demographics, environment and candidates here, it's just too far-fetched to imagine that it'll go down this way.
5. simple demographics. outremont is comprised of the parts of the plateau, most of the mile end, the city of outremont and cote-des-neiges. yes mulcair won in a romp, but this is probably the most ndp-friendly terrain in all of the province. the westmount elite is not the outremont elite, and ndg is not the mile end. the student ghettos will help somewhat, bringing in maybe a 1500 vote majority for the ndp, but the battleground lower westmount and ndg portions are where the real battle will occur. frankly, the stars would have to align perfectly for lagace-dowson and the ndp to beat the liberals by enough in these areas to make up for the soviet-style lpc victory among the mountain-side polls.
these are the fundamentals as i see them, and my prognostication as it stands. if the liberals are really punished over the coming weeks (and with a winnable by-election in guelph, it's certainly in harper's interest to punish), i see this becoming more likely to tighten up, but as it stands, with an excellent campaign, the ndp loses this one by at least 5000 votes.
08 07 25 Let's go expos
This morning, I awoke to NDP signs all over the place in W-VM: Downtown, Westmount and NDG. Quite a surprise it was: the dippers, it seems, take this race seriously -we can't write them off yet.
Also, pollster Christian Bourque from L?ger Marketing was on CBC radio today saying definitively that the tories and bloc were not in this race. Moreover, he stated that if the dippers would have any chance in history to take this riding, this was it.
Suffice to say it is shaping up to be a classic underdog vs. establishment byelection where anything could happen. The Libs are ahead, but ain't home free yet. With 5 weeks of campaign left, 'too close too call', I reckon.
I found the transcript:
'... The Liberals have held the Westmount-Ville-Marie riding since 1958.
The last candidate outdistanced her closest rival two votes to one.
But Christian Bourque from Leger Marketing says a Liberal victory is
not a sure thing.
CLIP (Christian Bourque):
If there is any time when the NDP can make further gains on the island
of Montreal it is probably right about now so we should anticipate a
fairly close race between those two parties.
Former CBC radio host Anne Lagace Dowson is running for the NDP.
She'll be up against former astronaut Marc Garneau from the Liberal party.
Bourque says an NDP win would mean the loss of a Liberal symbol.
CLIP (Christian Bourque):
'...If this were to happen it would not only question Stephane
Dion's leadership but Liberal strategists and the Liberal party itself
would really be shaken up if they were to lose Westmount...'
Bourque says he doesn't expect the Conservative's Guy Dufort nor
Bloc Quebecois candidate Charles Lariv?e to make much of an impact.
Claude Genest is the Green party candidate...'
Jay Turnbull, CBC Radio, Montreal
(Aired Friday, July 25, 2008. 5:30 regional news cast)
L?ger Marketing are some of the most respected pollsters in Qu?bec. To repeat, I say TCTC, with the Grits slightly ahead.
08 07 23 R.D.
Tom Mulcair told the Toronto Star that internal party polling shows Dawson running just four points behind Garneau. He further stated that ?Anne's numbers are the same as mine were? at the start of the Outremont campaign, and that: ?We (the NDP) think it's takeable.? Source:
Obviously this riding has a long Liberal history, and I would have to say they remain the favourites. Still, with an election call likely to come this weekend, and Dion still showing no progress in the national or Quebec polls despite spending over a month trying to sell his carbon tax plan, I think this riding merits a change in status to ?Too close to call.?
08 07 23 JKY
Dipper polling shows that the NDP is essentially in the same place as they were in Outremont just before the writ was dropped, and gaining. Since the dippers have been assiduously building organizationally in Montreal since then, with the advantage of having Mulcair in place, it is likely they will have enough boots on the ground to make some serious noise in the campaign. This will be extremely close, even though the Liberals have a much stronger candidate in Garneau than they were able to field in Outremont.
The Dippers are secretly hoping that Dion will spend a lot of time in the riding, as this will provide the kiss of death to the Liberal hopes.
08 07 23 PY
Thomas Mulcair's star power will be tested here as the NDP trots out a decent candidate. It might end up being a battle of name recognition, but I'm going with history. Garneau for the win.
08 07 22 Mark R.
What surprised many in Outremont will carry over to W-V-W come byelection day. The NPD is polling well and Dion drags down the Liberal number even with Garneau as the candidate, the Liberals are faltering. All bets are off on traditional voting patterns - remember that byelections are unique and don't offer any real clues to what happens in a general election. Why would someone come in as a star candidate for the NPD if they did not think that they had a clear shot at winning?
08 07 06 King of Kensington
The latest CROP poll (1000 respondents province-wide) puts the Liberals at 29%, the NDP at 25%, the Bloc at 22% and the Conservatives at 19% in the 514 area code. Considering that the NDP lost their deposit in most 514 ridings in the '06 election, they will certainly be a significant player in a number of ridings. Westmount-Ville Marie was one of the best showings for the NDP in '06. But this point seems lost on Peg Leg Pete/Doug the Slug/I'm Always Right.
With the very high-profile Montreal journalist Anne Lagace-Dowson running for the NDP and Marc Garneau running for the Liberals, this will be an interesting race to watch.
08 07 04 David Young
With the news that prominent TV personality Anne Lagace-Dowson has taken a leave of absence to seek the NDP nomination in WESTMOUNT-VILLE MARIE, it now looks like there's going to be a much closer race here once the by-election is called.
This riding has shown that it's not afraid of voting for a strong female candidate. Let's see if history will repeat itself.
08 05 29 seasaw
Ever since its existence, the riding has only sent Liberals to H of C. Even if the Liberals were to lose badly, even if they were to have seat numbers in single digits, this one won't be a riding that they'll lose.
08 05 16 A.S.
okay, I won't say the NDP's gonna win; nor will I guarantee second place. However, the prospect of the NDP battling it out w/the Greens for fifth is definitely dampened by the fact that even if it was ‘barely’, they topped the Bloc vote *at all* last time--and that was before Thomas Mulcair's Outremont byelection. Given that circumstance, the only way the NDP's gonna be reduced to battling-for-fifth here is if either Mulcair himself finishes a poor third, or if he jumps to the Liberals or even Tories or Greens...
08 05 09 Peg Leg Pete
NDP shill King of Kensington is really out there even thinking his party has any chance at all. The NDP got a lousy 6300 votes in the last general election and barely beat out the Bloc for third place. How about the 3400 votes for the Greens here? The Liberals had THREE TIMES the votes the NDP had and that's just the facts. The Liberals will run away with the by-election with the Conservatives second, the Block third and the NDP in a nasty fight with the Greens to see who finishes fifth. The NDP has NO CHANCE of winning Westmount-Ville-Marie.
08 05 01 King of Kensington
According to the latest CROP poll, the NDP is at 18% in Quebec. I believe this riding was their third best showing in Quebec last time around. I agree with the analysis below. The mansions of Upper Westmount are only a very small proportion of the riding and even within Westmount, represent only a third of it. While Upper Westmount is akin to Rosedale in Toronto, Lower Westmount is more like the Annex. NDG is also filled with lots of intelligentsia types that would be totally open to voting NDP. The Ville-Marie includes the McGill ‘ghetto’ and some bohemian areas, etc. While the NDP seems to be taking more from the Bloc (whose vote here isn't very big) than the Liberals, a high profile NDP candidate could make this interesting. To date, there is no word on Julius Grey running...
(Also, note to Bear and Ape: saying that NDG Jews and Mount Royal Jews are the same is as silly as saying Trinity-Spadina Jews and Eglinton-Lawrence Jews are the same!)
08 04 26 Philly D.
Contrary to the previous poster, this is NOT Westmount.
Yes, Westmount is entirely included in the riding. But it makes up only 20% of it; it includes a small chunk of Notre-Dame-de-Grace to the West. But more importantly, the majority of the riding is in the second part of the riding's name - Ville-Marie refers to downtown Montréal, and includes part of the Mile End, the port area, Chinatown, the actual Rue Sainte-Cathrine core and the part to the West and slightly to the south. This riding is actually average as far as personal income is concerned. Several areas can be defined:
- Westmount: there are two parts, the hill and the lower area around Rue Sherbrooke O. The hill is indeed the area of old money, but it doesn't even include most of Westmount. The rest is quite mixed, with more anglos and allos than many other areas, and the NDP may play very well there.
- Notre-Dame-de-Grace: very multicultural and mixed, if it were Toronto the NDP would be at least competitive.
- 'West': see lower Westmount
- Downtown core: not many people live here...
- Chinatown: this probably leans Liberal still, but nowhere near monolithically.
- Northeast (McGill ghetto and Mile End): the NDP actually won several polls here in 2006 at 7.5% provincially, and in the Outremont by-election the mile End polls there went monolithically NDP. There are not quite as many though.
- Southeast (port area): this part of the riding is provincially in Sainte-Marie-Sainte-Jacques, and it went PQ handily in the provincial election. this is where the NDP would have to purge BQ votes à la Outremont in order to win.
Right now NDP support is about double what it was in 2006 while Liberal support is slightly higher and this is a riding that would be an instant target were it not in Quebec (but it probably is anyway). Even if this doubling is perfectly linear, the NDP start only about 5000 votes behind; with a BQ purge it's neck and neck. And that doesn't include Liberal votes going NDP. I'd say the NDP have a very clear advantage in the by-election if they a good candidate before summertime. If a federal election happens before, however, it will be a very close affair with present numbers, possibly with a small Liberal advantage. This would be among the very, very first seats (probably top 3) to go NDP in Quebec if the NDP got to twenty percent and close to the Liberals. However, this seat will be decided by no more than 3000 votes and probably half that.
08 03 31 Aidan Hayes's Westmount. There is really nothing else to say.
08 03 29 binriso
Another thing here from 2006 election:
BQ votes + NDP votes + CPC votes are still about 100 votes short of the Liberals. Would be pretty hard for either of them to win being so divided and the Liberals should take this because of their strong base and the fact that they basically tripled everyone elses vote last election.
08 03 25 R.D.
The Globe and Mail reports today that Stephane Dion is facing ‘a revolt’ in Quebec. Marc Garneau is a better candidate than Coulon was in Outremont, for sure. And Westmount Ville-Marie is an even stronger Liberal riding. And its still an open question whether Julius Grey will step forward for the NDP here, or if not, whether the NDP could snag someone else of the same caliber. And we don't even know if there will be a byelection here, or if a general election will happen first.
All that being said, if the Liberals STILL don't have their act together in Quebec, they certainly could get their nose bloodied again. It seems that Quebec Liberals are still much more interested in fighting each other than fighting the other parties, and that's a recipe for continued defeat.
08 03 23 binriso
Yeah so whos gonna come 2nd then and be so close to winning here? The BQ are surely not going to do much better than the election and probably less so, the Greens winning is an absolutely absurd prediction in 99% of the ridings, the NDP dont have a candidate here yet and the CPC, although they are 2nd are far back(~30%). Plus the Liberals havent lost here in a long time, (50 years or so they lost Saint-Henri Westmount when Diefenbaker won a huge majority). Vancouver Quadra was relatively solid Tory with Howard Green and Bill Clarke each being re-elected multiple times since the 1950s and Westmount has no such history. Only way anyone else would win is if the BQ all voted for the NDP and the NDP ran a star candidate, the Liberals ran a bad candidate (they have a pretty good one) and the CPC and Greens strategically voted for the NDP. So basically the NDP would need another Outremont scenario to win here, or even be close. The CPC could win this if they were in Diefenbaker 1958 majority territory, but thats an impossibility with the BQ around.
08 03 20 John
Are you joking? Libs only won in Toronto Centre because of the ‘strong candidate Bob Rae’? And Libs will take Westmont Ville-Marie in a squeaker?
I don't know what kind of polls you read, but last I checked the Grits were hanging in at 30% which means that 15-year rock solid liberal seats are not ready to fall just yet, thank you very much.
For the record, Westmount last elected a Conservative in 1935. I think it would take more than a 'realignment' for anybody else to win here; more likely the apocalypse.
08 03 18 Jason
Dion doesn't seem too popular. The Libs only won in the Toronto byelections because of strong candidates Rae and Findlay. I think that Dion is about as popular in Quebec as he is in Vancouver so this riding could play out in a similar way that Vancouver-Quadra did in the last byelection. Liberals will win it in a squeaker. But to me a ?squeaker? is a victory for the Conservatives. Set's up nicely for the General Election. After a full campaign and French/English debates, Dion's popularity can only get worse.
08 02 17 A.S.
‘Major catastrophe’ here would almost certainly involve a Mulcair/Julius Grey whirlwind effect--supposedly, this is #2 or 3 in the Montreal-area NDP-target pecking order. But a candidate of Marc Garneau's stature screams out ‘insurance’--at least, in a seat where the Grits are sitting on a 25-30-point plurality, rather than trying to take back a seat lost in the previous election. I'm still willing to call my Grit prediction ‘tentative’, though.
08 02 13 binriso
Robillard resigned her seat so were probably going to have a by-election here in the summer, unless we have a general election in the spring, which is unlikely. Definite Liberal win barring a major catastrophe.
07 11 21 Jake Stromberg
There is a good deal of opposition to the Conservatives in this riding. They didn't have a chance last time around and they don't this time around. As for the NDP, their recent victory in Outremont is no reason to think they have a chance. This is not an NDP trend in Quebec we're seeing, this was a victory by a star candidate who beat a poorly chosen candidate from an arrogant party. Garneau is a strong liberal candidate running in a solid liberal riding which has learned from it's recent loss in Outremont.
07 10 29 J.Mc.
It looks like Garneau is back in the Liberal fold, and their official nominee for this riding. While, with the NDP victory in Outremont, anything is possible on election day, IMHO Mulcair was mainly elected on the basis of his personal popularity, in combination with a controversial Liberal candidate. Since this riding is in Montreal, and the Liberals held it after their poor 2006 Quebec showing, I am going to predict a Liberal hold.
07 10 24 J.F. Breton
Avec la candidature de Marc Garneau, dans un château-fort libéral, je crois bien que les libéraux pourront sauver les meubles ici. Une partie du vote ira d'abord et avant tout à Marc Garneau, beaucoup moins au PLC. Naturellement, une forte candidature NPD (par exemple Me Julius Grey), pourrait changer la donne, mais personne ne peut dire encore quelles seront ces fortes candidatures néo-démocrates au Québec. J'opte donc pour une victoire libérale, à défaut d'en connaître plus pour le moment.
07 10 22 binriso
Well this could be a good seat for the NDP next election, but with Garneau nominated, well appointed i guess and less controversy in the riding, the Liberals should hold this. Remember Outremont was a seat that the NDP had roughly half the Liberals vote, while here its more like 1/3. If the NDP get a star candidate, it will trim the Liberal margin but the Liberals will still probably win by 3000-5000 votes if not more.
07 10 19 T.V.
Marc Garneau is running after all. I don't think that the Liberals will have trouble holding this riding, though their vote might go down. It's an extremely federalist riding that's quite similar in many ways to Toronto Centre. In the wealthier bits of Westmount, the Conservatives will likely win most anti-Liberal votes. In the rest of the riding, it will likely be NDP. The combination will mean that the Liberals should easily slide up the middle even if their vote drops significantly.
07 10 07 Brian Appel
Okay...all right, with Garneau quitting the party after being set to win it handily, combined with the unexpected Mulcair victory in ‘Liberal stronghold’ Outremont, I'm going to be the second person to predict an NDP steal in this riding. Please note, however, that I was calling for the uncertainty of a Liberal victory months ago and I was called out of my mind then. Provided the NDP field a strong, popular candidate like Julius Grey, and provided that Mulcair's victory isn't a byelection fluke, the NDP are set to win another riding in Quebec in the next fed and I'd call for this riding before I'd look at a riding like NDG-Lachine.
07 09 30 Daniel
I guess I'll be the first person to predict an NDP win here. If recent polling is merely a blip as a result of the events in Outremont, then the Dippers might have a hard time here; but if it's evidence of a more sustained trend of increased NDP support or potential growth in Quebec (which I think it is), then this riding is the most likely to flip. (If the NDP starts consistently polling in the 15-20% range in Quebec, they'll have to start winning seats *somewhere*).
Additionally, the NDP seems bent on attracting a star candidate for this riding, while star candidates have been hastily abandoning ship on the Liberal side (Marc Garneau, anyone?). If the Dippers run Julius Grey, and the Liberals run someone of lukewarm calibre, then this will probably become the second Montreal coup-d'état for the NDP.
07 09 27 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
First Nick, don't feel bad about disagreeing with us, we are putting some water in our wine after the NDP win in Outremont. We think that Westmount-Ville Marie may become a competetive riding for the NDP in the same way Vancouver Center is not (a long shot but not unreasonable). It all depends on whether or not the Mulcair win is something new for the NDP in Quebec or just going to be a historical curiosity. We don't see it happening yet (lets see what Layton and Mulcair can do), we still say Liberal hold.
King of Kensignton: NDG is not the plateau (read: those Bohemian types are not that big of a demographic). NDG is still dominated by Italians, Jews and a mix of other ethnic groups that traditionally (and still do) vote Liberal. Those intelligentsia and bohemian types are a much bigger demographic in lower Westmount than NDG (which would help the NDP). As for Mount Royal Jews and NDG Jews, they ARE the same. Obviously you never lived in the neighbourhood or else you would know that the Jews in Mount Royal (such as in the city of Cote Ste Luc) used to live in NDG before there was a CSL. Once CSL was built, they moved there. The current NDG Jewsish community are just the ones who didn't up and move.
As for Mulcair's win, a big factor, a VERY big factor was that he was (and is) very popular. He's the type of politician that can find support in diverse communities. That played a big role in his win. If the NDP can find someone like that to run in Westmount-Ville Marie, then we're going to be the first to say they ahve a fighting chance. Till then, we see this as becoming Montreal's answer to Vancouver Center.
07 09 26 JP
Liberal turmoil in Westmount?
Star Liberal candidate and Westmount-Ville-Marie nominee-applicant Marc Garneau has shocked supporters by saying he has quit the Liberal party. He cited frustration with heavy-handed party leadership control over nominations. Stephane Dion had previously announced he will impose his choice of candidate for this riding as with Outremont, which Garneau had previously sought.
07 09 24 King of Kensington
With Mulcair's stunning byelection victory in Outremont - indeed he won by an even wider margin of victory than expected - the NDP will definitely be targeting this seat. Although I admit to not having lived in Montreal, I respectfully disagree with Dr. Bear in terms of the ‘natural’ Liberal inclinations.
For instance, take NDG. It is a diverse area chock full of middle class small ‘l’ liberal intelligentsia and bohemian types and would be natural NDP territory in other cities. I don't see why having a significant Jewish population makes it a Liberal lock either - the Jews who live in this riding are certainly different from their counterparts in Mount Royal that vote would vote Liberal if the candidate was a mailbox painted red! Certainly (non-hassidic) Jews in Outremont voted in large numbers for Mulcair. A lot of lower Westmount could go NDP in the right circumstances as well and of course the downtown/McGill ghetto could as well.
Julius Grey, one of Canada's leading civil libertarians and a high-profile Jewish Montrealer would be a fantastic candidate for this riding and would make things very interesting.
In the end, Westmount-Ville Marie has a strong Liberal history (but so did Outremont) but it is not a Liberal fortress in the way Mount Royal is!
07 09 19 Porter
I will echo King of Kensington and Brian A. that this riding is taken for granted by Liberals as being safe, due to its history (much like Outremont was). While I would currently predict Liberal, it looks like with a retiring incumbent and a lack of strong contenders emerging to replace her this riding could be challenged with all parties looking to increase their prospects.
With its mix of urban demographics and university students, expect this to be one of the top targets for Thom Mulcair in his new role to recruit power candidates for the NDP in Quebec. Indeed, one prominent local - Julius Grey is already rumoured...
07 09 17 Nick J Boragina
I’m afraid I’m going to have to disagree with Bear and Ape. I don’t like doing it, but I must. Oh, I agree with them that the NDP won’t be winning here in the next federal election, but my issue is with the phrase ‘Anytime Soon.’ You might as well hold that phone, because you never know with the way things are going. Remember, only a few years ago the idea of the CPC winning more then 1 or 2 ridings in Quebec was laughable. Before McDonnough, and even in 1987-1988, when some people thought the NDP would win a minority government, the idea of the NDP winning more then 1 or 2 ridings in the Atlantic was crazy, yet today Nova Scotia polls better then any province for the NDP. With the shifting dynamic of the widening rural-urban split here in Canada, the NDP could well start winning Montreal ridings. When I was doing my research for Outremont (and found out it was the #1 riding for the NDP in Quebec since 93) I also found out that Westmount was the #2 riding. If the NDP is going to start winning in Quebec (and that IS one big if, I doubt it’ll happen, but its certainly possible) this is one of the ridings that will fall to the NDP.
All of that, however, means little in the upcoming election, and the Liberals will win without a question.
07 06 19
Un comté du West Island, très libéral et très fédéraliste.
Les libéraux y seront réélus les doigts dans le nez.
07 04 08 Dr Bear without Proff Ape
OKAY! Hold the phone! Westmount-Ville Marie go CPC or NDP?!?! Not anytime soon! I lived 28 years in neighbouring NDG-Lachine (actually 4 blocks west of the riding boundary) so I know this area quite well. Besides Dion being popular in Quebec, the current conservative party has no more appeal here than they would in St Paul's. The CPC just isn't getting through to Montrealers (especially english Montrealers) anymore than they are getting through to Torontonians. Upper Westmount, with it's large sums of old money, might be tempted to vote CPC but that is highly unlikely as they also tend to be more socially aware and more socially liberal. Lower Westmount is very much akin to Mount Royal. The NDG portion is very much like the portion of NDG in the NDG-Lachine riding (read: very diverse, strong Italian and Jewish community and very liberal) Looking at the Ville-Marie portion, though geographically large, few people actually live there (relatively speaking). People may work, shop, study, eat, drink & party in Ville Marie, but they reside elsewhere. So don't start thinking the NDP have any hope, just because McGIll and Concordia are located in this riding. Sorry, but it will clearly be a liberal hold with or without Lucienne running.
07 04 07 King of Kensington
Brian Appel is right that Westmount-Ville Marie is not as safe a Liberal riding as many think. And I'll call this one Liberal for now as well. But it is certainly not Mount Royal where most people will vote for a mailbox painted red.
However I disagree that the Conservatives have any chance in this riding whatsoever. Westmount is actually a small part of the riding. It also includes downtown Montreal, McGill, part of NDG, etc. These places would never vote Conservative in a million years. And even within Westmount it is only upper Westmount that is filled with old money and corporate lawyers, etc. in huge mansions. Lower Westmount is more mixed and filled with small-l liberal intelligentsia types.
This riding is basically Montreal's equivalent of Toronto Center. The Conservatives may have been competitive in the past, but the NDP would take it before the Conservatives do.
07 04 05 Brian Appel
I disagree with comments about this being such a safe Liberal riding. With its extremely diverse population, it could be a good riding for the Conservative's breakthrough into Montreal (Brian Mulroney lives in this riding, I believe), and the NDP could even take this riding with a good enough candidate. And with Mme. Robillard retiring, there's no incumbent advantage for the Liberals. Expect a really good three-way targeting effort in Westmount-Ville Marie. I still expect the Liberals to come out on top, but I wouldn't be so quick to mark it as a Liberal pickup.
07 04 03 P.P.
The day this riding votes anything but liberal is the day the liberal party gets no one elected in Quebec. Not going to happen
07 04 03 St. Paul's Progressive
Another super-safe Anglo Montreal riding. What may make the race interesting is that Jack Layton has approached Julius Grey to run for the NDP in Quebec and this may be the riding he runs in. The NDP almost certainly won't win but it will give them a boost in the riding.
07 04 01 Claude G.
Comté urbain et anglophone. Le Parti libéral n'aura aucune difficulté à obtenir plus de 50% des voix ici.
07 03 30 Angry Ontarian
Guarenteed win pour le Parti Liberal. Hardcore Liberal riding with a former Cabinet Minister. Lucienne Robillard wins here in a cakewalk.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
The Liberals have pretty close to have the vote guaranteed here and with the opposition divided up amongst all the other parties, Lucienne Robilliard should win hands down. The real question is will she crack the 50% mark or not. My guess is this time she will, but it is tough to say for sure.
07 03 29 J.F. Breton
Château-fort libéral, comté historiquement libéral, comté sûr, etc. Les Libéraux seront réélus ici, sans problème.

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