08 05 01	King of Kensington 74.15.66.130
According to the latest CROP poll, the NDP is at 18% in Quebec. I believe this riding was their third best showing in Quebec last time around. I agree with the analysis below. The mansions of Upper Westmount are only a very small proportion of the riding and even within Westmount, represent only a third of it. While Upper Westmount is akin to Rosedale in Toronto, Lower Westmount is more like the Annex. NDG is also filled with lots of intelligentsia types that would be totally open to voting NDP. The Ville-Marie includes the McGill ‘ghetto’ and some bohemian areas, etc. While the NDP seems to be taking more from the Bloc (whose vote here isn't very big) than the Liberals, a high profile NDP candidate could make this interesting. To date, there is no word on Julius Grey running... (Also, note to Bear and Ape: saying that NDG Jews and Mount Royal Jews are the same is as silly as saying Trinity-Spadina Jews and Eglinton-Lawrence Jews are the same!)
	08 04 26	Philly D. 65.93.165.187
Contrary to the previous poster, this is NOT Westmount. Yes, Westmount is entirely included in the riding. But it makes up only 20% of it; it includes a small chunk of Notre-Dame-de-Grace to the West. But more importantly, the majority of the riding is in the second part of the riding's name - Ville-Marie refers to downtown Montréal, and includes part of the Mile End, the port area, Chinatown, the actual Rue Sainte-Cathrine core and the part to the West and slightly to the south. This riding is actually average as far as personal income is concerned. Several areas can be defined: - Westmount: there are two parts, the hill and the lower area around Rue Sherbrooke O. The hill is indeed the area of old money, but it doesn't even include most of Westmount. The rest is quite mixed, with more anglos and allos than many other areas, and the NDP may play very well there. - Notre-Dame-de-Grace: very multicultural and mixed, if it were Toronto the NDP would be at least competitive. - 'West': see lower Westmount - Downtown core: not many people live here... - Chinatown: this probably leans Liberal still, but nowhere near monolithically. - Northeast (McGill ghetto and Mile End): the NDP actually won several polls here in 2006 at 7.5% provincially, and in the Outremont by-election the mile End polls there went monolithically NDP. There are not quite as many though. - Southeast (port area): this part of the riding is provincially in Sainte-Marie-Sainte-Jacques, and it went PQ handily in the provincial election. this is where the NDP would have to purge BQ votes à la Outremont in order to win. Right now NDP support is about double what it was in 2006 while Liberal support is slightly higher and this is a riding that would be an instant target were it not in Quebec (but it probably is anyway). Even if this doubling is perfectly linear, the NDP start only about 5000 votes behind; with a BQ purge it's neck and neck. And that doesn't include Liberal votes going NDP. I'd say the NDP have a very clear advantage in the by-election if they a good candidate before summertime. If a federal election happens before, however, it will be a very close affair with present numbers, possibly with a small Liberal advantage. This would be among the very, very first seats (probably top 3) to go NDP in Quebec if the NDP got to twenty percent and close to the Liberals. However, this seat will be decided by no more than 3000 votes and probably half that.
	08 03 31	Aidan Hayes 142.177.153.222
Uhhh...it's Westmount. There is really nothing else to say.
	08 03 29	binriso 156.34.209.176
Another thing here from 2006 election: BQ votes + NDP votes + CPC votes are still about 100 votes short of the Liberals. Would be pretty hard for either of them to win being so divided and the Liberals should take this because of their strong base and the fact that they basically tripled everyone elses vote last election.
	08 03 25	R.D. 12.4.238.25
The Globe and Mail reports today that Stephane Dion is facing ‘a revolt’ in Quebec. Marc Garneau is a better candidate than Coulon was in Outremont, for sure. And Westmount Ville-Marie is an even stronger Liberal riding. And its still an open question whether Julius Grey will step forward for the NDP here, or if not, whether the NDP could snag someone else of the same caliber. And we don't even know if there will be a byelection here, or if a general election will happen first. All that being said, if the Liberals STILL don't have their act together in Quebec, they certainly could get their nose bloodied again. It seems that Quebec Liberals are still much more interested in fighting each other than fighting the other parties, and that's a recipe for continued defeat.
	08 03 23	binriso 156.34.209.176
Yeah so whos gonna come 2nd then and be so close to winning here? The BQ are surely not going to do much better than the election and probably less so, the Greens winning is an absolutely absurd prediction in 99% of the ridings, the NDP dont have a candidate here yet and the CPC, although they are 2nd are far back(~30%). Plus the Liberals havent lost here in a long time, (50 years or so they lost Saint-Henri Westmount when Diefenbaker won a huge majority). Vancouver Quadra was relatively solid Tory with Howard Green and Bill Clarke each being re-elected multiple times since the 1950s and Westmount has no such history. Only way anyone else would win is if the BQ all voted for the NDP and the NDP ran a star candidate, the Liberals ran a bad candidate (they have a pretty good one) and the CPC and Greens strategically voted for the NDP. So basically the NDP would need another Outremont scenario to win here, or even be close. The CPC could win this if they were in Diefenbaker 1958 majority territory, but thats an impossibility with the BQ around.
	08 03 20	John 70.80.7.165
Are you joking? Libs only won in Toronto Centre because of the ‘strong candidate Bob Rae’? And Libs will take Westmont Ville-Marie in a squeaker? I don't know what kind of polls you read, but last I checked the Grits were hanging in at 30% which means that 15-year rock solid liberal seats are not ready to fall just yet, thank you very much. For the record, Westmount last elected a Conservative in 1935. I think it would take more than a 'realignment' for anybody else to win here; more likely the apocalypse.
	08 03 18	Jason 99.245.200.119
Dion doesn't seem too popular. The Libs only won in the Toronto byelections because of strong candidates Rae and Findlay. I think that Dion is about as popular in Quebec as he is in Vancouver so this riding could play out in a similar way that Vancouver-Quadra did in the last byelection. Liberals will win it in a squeaker. But to me a ?squeaker? is a victory for the Conservatives. Set's up nicely for the General Election. After a full campaign and French/English debates, Dion's popularity can only get worse.
	08 02 17	A.S. 99.233.96.153
‘Major catastrophe’ here would almost certainly involve a Mulcair/Julius Grey whirlwind effect--supposedly, this is #2 or 3 in the Montreal-area NDP-target pecking order. But a candidate of Marc Garneau's stature screams out ‘insurance’--at least, in a seat where the Grits are sitting on a 25-30-point plurality, rather than trying to take back a seat lost in the previous election. I'm still willing to call my Grit prediction ‘tentative’, though.
	08 02 13	binriso 156.34.228.38
Robillard resigned her seat so were probably going to have a by-election here in the summer, unless we have a general election in the spring, which is unlikely. Definite Liberal win barring a major catastrophe.
	07 11 21	Jake Stromberg 142.157.63.101
There is a good deal of opposition to the Conservatives in this riding. They didn't have a chance last time around and they don't this time around. As for the NDP, their recent victory in Outremont is no reason to think they have a chance. This is not an NDP trend in Quebec we're seeing, this was a victory by a star candidate who beat a poorly chosen candidate from an arrogant party. Garneau is a strong liberal candidate running in a solid liberal riding which has learned from it's recent loss in Outremont.
	07 10 29	J.Mc. 64.183.138.101
It looks like Garneau is back in the Liberal fold, and their official nominee for this riding. While, with the NDP victory in Outremont, anything is possible on election day, IMHO Mulcair was mainly elected on the basis of his personal popularity, in combination with a controversial Liberal candidate. Since this riding is in Montreal, and the Liberals held it after their poor 2006 Quebec showing, I am going to predict a Liberal hold.
	07 10 24	J.F. Breton 132.204.214.211
Avec la candidature de Marc Garneau, dans un château-fort libéral, je crois bien que les libéraux pourront sauver les meubles ici. Une partie du vote ira d'abord et avant tout à Marc Garneau, beaucoup moins au PLC. Naturellement, une forte candidature NPD (par exemple Me Julius Grey), pourrait changer la donne, mais personne ne peut dire encore quelles seront ces fortes candidatures néo-démocrates au Québec. J'opte donc pour une victoire libérale, à défaut d'en connaître plus pour le moment.
	07 10 22	binriso 156.34.214.28
Well this could be a good seat for the NDP next election, but with Garneau nominated, well appointed i guess and less controversy in the riding, the Liberals should hold this. Remember Outremont was a seat that the NDP had roughly half the Liberals vote, while here its more like 1/3. If the NDP get a star candidate, it will trim the Liberal margin but the Liberals will still probably win by 3000-5000 votes if not more.
	07 10 19	T.V. 209.202.78.177
Marc Garneau is running after all. I don't think that the Liberals will have trouble holding this riding, though their vote might go down. It's an extremely federalist riding that's quite similar in many ways to Toronto Centre. In the wealthier bits of Westmount, the Conservatives will likely win most anti-Liberal votes. In the rest of the riding, it will likely be NDP. The combination will mean that the Liberals should easily slide up the middle even if their vote drops significantly.
	07 10 07	Brian Appel 71.7.218.162
Okay...all right, with Garneau quitting the party after being set to win it handily, combined with the unexpected Mulcair victory in ‘Liberal stronghold’ Outremont, I'm going to be the second person to predict an NDP steal in this riding. Please note, however, that I was calling for the uncertainty of a Liberal victory months ago and I was called out of my mind then. Provided the NDP field a strong, popular candidate like Julius Grey, and provided that Mulcair's victory isn't a byelection fluke, the NDP are set to win another riding in Quebec in the next fed and I'd call for this riding before I'd look at a riding like NDG-Lachine.
	07 09 30	Daniel 156.34.69.138
I guess I'll be the first person to predict an NDP win here. If recent polling is merely a blip as a result of the events in Outremont, then the Dippers might have a hard time here; but if it's evidence of a more sustained trend of increased NDP support or potential growth in Quebec (which I think it is), then this riding is the most likely to flip. (If the NDP starts consistently polling in the 15-20% range in Quebec, they'll have to start winning seats *somewhere*). Additionally, the NDP seems bent on attracting a star candidate for this riding, while star candidates have been hastily abandoning ship on the Liberal side (Marc Garneau, anyone?). If the Dippers run Julius Grey, and the Liberals run someone of lukewarm calibre, then this will probably become the second Montreal coup-d'état for the NDP.
	07 09 27	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 76.64.122.147
First Nick, don't feel bad about disagreeing with us, we are putting some water in our wine after the NDP win in Outremont. We think that Westmount-Ville Marie may become a competetive riding for the NDP in the same way Vancouver Center is not (a long shot but not unreasonable). It all depends on whether or not the Mulcair win is something new for the NDP in Quebec or just going to be a historical curiosity. We don't see it happening yet (lets see what Layton and Mulcair can do), we still say Liberal hold. King of Kensignton: NDG is not the plateau (read: those Bohemian types are not that big of a demographic). NDG is still dominated by Italians, Jews and a mix of other ethnic groups that traditionally (and still do) vote Liberal. Those intelligentsia and bohemian types are a much bigger demographic in lower Westmount than NDG (which would help the NDP). As for Mount Royal Jews and NDG Jews, they ARE the same. Obviously you never lived in the neighbourhood or else you would know that the Jews in Mount Royal (such as in the city of Cote Ste Luc) used to live in NDG before there was a CSL. Once CSL was built, they moved there. The current NDG Jewsish community are just the ones who didn't up and move. As for Mulcair's win, a big factor, a VERY big factor was that he was (and is) very popular. He's the type of politician that can find support in diverse communities. That played a big role in his win. If the NDP can find someone like that to run in Westmount-Ville Marie, then we're going to be the first to say they ahve a fighting chance. Till then, we see this as becoming Montreal's answer to Vancouver Center.
	07 09 26	JP 198.103.172.9
Liberal turmoil in Westmount? Star Liberal candidate and Westmount-Ville-Marie nominee-applicant Marc Garneau has shocked supporters by saying he has quit the Liberal party. He cited frustration with heavy-handed party leadership control over nominations. Stephane Dion had previously announced he will impose his choice of candidate for this riding as with Outremont, which Garneau had previously sought. http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/story.html?id=1c651d07-42f2-47f7-959a-f2e523742e9b&k=25440
	07 09 24	King of Kensington 70.52.184.99
With Mulcair's stunning byelection victory in Outremont - indeed he won by an even wider margin of victory than expected - the NDP will definitely be targeting this seat. Although I admit to not having lived in Montreal, I respectfully disagree with Dr. Bear in terms of the ‘natural’ Liberal inclinations. For instance, take NDG. It is a diverse area chock full of middle class small ‘l’ liberal intelligentsia and bohemian types and would be natural NDP territory in other cities. I don't see why having a significant Jewish population makes it a Liberal lock either - the Jews who live in this riding are certainly different from their counterparts in Mount Royal that vote would vote Liberal if the candidate was a mailbox painted red! Certainly (non-hassidic) Jews in Outremont voted in large numbers for Mulcair. A lot of lower Westmount could go NDP in the right circumstances as well and of course the downtown/McGill ghetto could as well. Julius Grey, one of Canada's leading civil libertarians and a high-profile Jewish Montrealer would be a fantastic candidate for this riding and would make things very interesting. In the end, Westmount-Ville Marie has a strong Liberal history (but so did Outremont) but it is not a Liberal fortress in the way Mount Royal is!
	07 09 19	Porter 207.112.42.155
I will echo King of Kensington and Brian A. that this riding is taken for granted by Liberals as being safe, due to its history (much like Outremont was). While I would currently predict Liberal, it looks like with a retiring incumbent and a lack of strong contenders emerging to replace her this riding could be challenged with all parties looking to increase their prospects. With its mix of urban demographics and university students, expect this to be one of the top targets for Thom Mulcair in his new role to recruit power candidates for the NDP in Quebec. Indeed, one prominent local - Julius Grey is already rumoured...
	07 09 17	Nick J Boragina 74.100.251.74
I’m afraid I’m going to have to disagree with Bear and Ape. I don’t like doing it, but I must. Oh, I agree with them that the NDP won’t be winning here in the next federal election, but my issue is with the phrase ‘Anytime Soon.’ You might as well hold that phone, because you never know with the way things are going. Remember, only a few years ago the idea of the CPC winning more then 1 or 2 ridings in Quebec was laughable. Before McDonnough, and even in 1987-1988, when some people thought the NDP would win a minority government, the idea of the NDP winning more then 1 or 2 ridings in the Atlantic was crazy, yet today Nova Scotia polls better then any province for the NDP. With the shifting dynamic of the widening rural-urban split here in Canada, the NDP could well start winning Montreal ridings. When I was doing my research for Outremont (and found out it was the #1 riding for the NDP in Quebec since 93) I also found out that Westmount was the #2 riding. If the NDP is going to start winning in Quebec (and that IS one big if, I doubt it’ll happen, but its certainly possible) this is one of the ridings that will fall to the NDP. All of that, however, means little in the upcoming election, and the Liberals will win without a question.
	07 06 19	70.55.125.49
Un comté du West Island, très libéral et très fédéraliste. Les libéraux y seront réélus les doigts dans le nez.
	07 04 08	Dr Bear without Proff Ape 70.53.99.58
OKAY! Hold the phone! Westmount-Ville Marie go CPC or NDP?!?! Not anytime soon! I lived 28 years in neighbouring NDG-Lachine (actually 4 blocks west of the riding boundary) so I know this area quite well. Besides Dion being popular in Quebec, the current conservative party has no more appeal here than they would in St Paul's. The CPC just isn't getting through to Montrealers (especially english Montrealers) anymore than they are getting through to Torontonians. Upper Westmount, with it's large sums of old money, might be tempted to vote CPC but that is highly unlikely as they also tend to be more socially aware and more socially liberal. Lower Westmount is very much akin to Mount Royal. The NDG portion is very much like the portion of NDG in the NDG-Lachine riding (read: very diverse, strong Italian and Jewish community and very liberal) Looking at the Ville-Marie portion, though geographically large, few people actually live there (relatively speaking). People may work, shop, study, eat, drink & party in Ville Marie, but they reside elsewhere. So don't start thinking the NDP have any hope, just because McGIll and Concordia are located in this riding. Sorry, but it will clearly be a liberal hold with or without Lucienne running.
	07 04 07	King of Kensington 74.98.171.205
Brian Appel is right that Westmount-Ville Marie is not as safe a Liberal riding as many think. And I'll call this one Liberal for now as well. But it is certainly not Mount Royal where most people will vote for a mailbox painted red. However I disagree that the Conservatives have any chance in this riding whatsoever. Westmount is actually a small part of the riding. It also includes downtown Montreal, McGill, part of NDG, etc. These places would never vote Conservative in a million years. And even within Westmount it is only upper Westmount that is filled with old money and corporate lawyers, etc. in huge mansions. Lower Westmount is more mixed and filled with small-l liberal intelligentsia types. This riding is basically Montreal's equivalent of Toronto Center. The Conservatives may have been competitive in the past, but the NDP would take it before the Conservatives do.
	07 04 05	Brian Appel 64.230.127.250
I disagree with comments about this being such a safe Liberal riding. With its extremely diverse population, it could be a good riding for the Conservative's breakthrough into Montreal (Brian Mulroney lives in this riding, I believe), and the NDP could even take this riding with a good enough candidate. And with Mme. Robillard retiring, there's no incumbent advantage for the Liberals. Expect a really good three-way targeting effort in Westmount-Ville Marie. I still expect the Liberals to come out on top, but I wouldn't be so quick to mark it as a Liberal pickup.
	07 04 03	P.P. 70.82.50.99
The day this riding votes anything but liberal is the day the liberal party gets no one elected in Quebec. Not going to happen
	07 04 03	St. Paul's Progressive 130.63.123.68
Another super-safe Anglo Montreal riding. What may make the race interesting is that Jack Layton has approached Julius Grey to run for the NDP in Quebec and this may be the riding he runs in. The NDP almost certainly won't win but it will give them a boost in the riding.
	07 04 01	Claude G. 74.13.147.200
Comté urbain et anglophone. Le Parti libéral n'aura aucune difficulté à obtenir plus de 50% des voix ici.
	07 03 30	Angry Ontarian 24.36.172.204
Guarenteed win pour le Parti Liberal. Hardcore Liberal riding with a former Cabinet Minister. Lucienne Robillard wins here in a cakewalk.
	07 03 29	M. Lunn 74.99.130.109
The Liberals have pretty close to have the vote guaranteed here and with the opposition divided up amongst all the other parties, Lucienne Robilliard should win hands down. The real question is will she crack the 50% mark or not. My guess is this time she will, but it is tough to say for sure.
	07 03 29	J.F. Breton 70.81.76.2
Château-fort libéral, comté historiquement libéral, comté sûr, etc. Les Libéraux seront réélus ici, sans problème.