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Jeanne-Le Ber
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
12:31 AM 6/15/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:16 PM 18/03/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

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Normand Chouinard
Parti Marijuana Party:
Cathy Duchesne
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Liza Frulla
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Jean Claude Mercier
Anthony Philbin
Pierre-Albert Sévigny
Bloc Québécois:
Thierry St-Cyr

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Verdun-Saint-Henri-Saint-Paul-Pointe Saint-Charles (89.6%)
Hon. Liza Frulla
Westmount-Ville-Marie (10.4%)
Hon. Lucienne Robillard

2000 Result/Résultats:
22,864 51.62%
12,673 28.61%
2,949 6.66%
2,248 5.07%
3,562 8.04%

Verdun-Saint-Henri-Saint-Paul-Pointe Saint-Charles
(204/204 polls, 70909/70909 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(22/187 polls, 8272/70390 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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10/06/04 Victor A.
Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com
Let me clarify something. Indeed, this riding is not similar to any other riding in western Montreal, 75 % of this riding is made up of the neigborhoods of Pointe-St-Charles and the old city of Verdun, that can easily be described as a western counterbalance to Hochelaga-Maisonneuve borough, which is just east of downtown. Most of the people living there live close ( or below ) the poverty line. The difference between Jeanne Le Ber and Hochelaga is as follows...Jeanne Le Ber also encompasses an island called Ile des Soeurs which is totally different from the rest of the riding, be it economically, socially or mentality wise. Before the old city of Verdun was incorporated into the new city of Montreal in 2002, Ile des Soeurs for many years had attempted to separate itself from Verdun. That area is currently undergoing a real estate boom. More and more exclusive appartments are bought by rich homeowners. If Ile des Soeurs was not part of this riding, it would cert! ainly be a BQ territory and if for some reason Election Canada would add Ile des Soeurs to the very ethnicized South Shore Brossard-La Praire, then we'd have a 5-th BQ riding on the island of Montreal.
02/06/04 PC
Email: [hidden]
M.Thierry St-Cyr ne devrait pas être élu car si les gens lui parlent directement, ils réaliseront qu'il a la tendance à déformer la réalité et exagérer facilement. En regardant ses réalistions, soit ses engagements communautaires et politiques décrites sur le site du Bloc Québécois, on pourrait facilement le coincer en le questionnant précisement sur les postes qu'il a occupé. Par exemple, que faisait-il vraiment en tant que Vice-Président externe de la Coalition des facultés d’ingénierie du Québec en 2000? Ou bien combien de temps a-t-il été président de l'Associations des études en Génie. M.St-Cyr comme vendeur d'auto peut-être! Mais politicien nous représentant à Ottawa jamais! Malheureusement pour le Québec, les libéraux obtiendront facilement cette circoncription.
28/05/04 Alex
Email: ajwinterhalt@hotmail.com
This is not a typical western Montreal riding. It is one of the poorest in Quebec and about 60% francophone. I live here, and there seems to me to be a growing anger at the Liberals because of the sponsorship program and because of the perception the Martin has shifted the party to the right. I predict a narrow victory for the Bloc with the NDP a strong third.
16/05/04 Stéphane Gaudet
Email: [hidden]
Comme dans toutes les circonscriptions de l'Ouest de Montréal, victoire libérale facile peu importe le candidat. Madame Frulla n'a rien à craindre.
04/05/04 Neal
Email: nealford@sympatico.ca
Pierre, I'll give you two words to sum up why the Bloc won't win here despite your points:
Liza Frulla.
She has credibility with Nationalists, because she is a federalist of convenience, and the federalists will vote for her because they have been so browbeaten by Liberal demagoguery that there's a mathematical formula that says Liberal=Federalist.
03/05/04 Pierre D.
Email: [hidden]
Among the previous result, the 1993 ones are the one that are closest to the actual survey in Québec. At that time, liberals won by only 499 votes. Interesting fact: the BQ candidate name was "Beaudoin" while an other unknown candidate name was "Baudin"... he received 594 votes! (See: http://www.parl.gc.ca/information/about/process/house/hfer/hfer.asp?Language=E&Search=Det&rid=972 parl#35 ) What is the proportion of those votes that where due to the confusion between the names? We will never now. But what we now, is that this election was very tight. So what has changed since 1993?
In favor of liberals: Liza Frulla has quite of notoriety, mainly due to the TV show she was doing before her election. But this is a couple of year away, so the impact should be marginal at the next election.
In favor of BQ: Thought mister Lavigne (the liberal candidate in 1993) did not had as much public notoriety as Frulla, he was very well established in the riding. Frulla do not have any real "anchor" in the riding. She is still perceived as someone from outside of the riding.
In favor of BQ : Frulla is personally linked with the sponsorship program. Among the person who contributed to her last electoral campaign, there was: Jean Carle (via Gestion Juste Pour Rire), Jacques Corriveau (via Pluri Design), Diane Des Lauriers (Everest), Paul Coffin (Coffin), Claude Boulay (Everest)... (See : http://www.elections.ca/scripts/ecCandidates2/Default.asp?L=F&EL=229&DB=AsSubmitted&ST=Cand&Page=SearchByCandResults&SS=4&PRV=&ED=&PTY=&ID=1824&bhcd2=1083677930)
In favor of liberals: The riding borders where modified since 1993 and now includes the "Petite-Bourgogne" borough. People there are traditionally favorable to liberal; thought there are a lot of new francophones establishing themselves there, making the advantage less obvious.
In favor of BQ: On the other hand, the borough of "St-Henri" was also added to the riding since 1993 and is traditionally favorable to sovereignty and therefore should bring an advantage to the BQ.
In favor of BQ: A lot of young peoples are establishing themselves in the riding. People that just finished university and that would have go in "Plateau Mont-Royal" in the past but that can no more pay for that. Those newcomers are in a vast proportion favorable to the BQ.
In favor of liberals: Already an M.P. This definitively gives and advantage. A lot of social groups are afraid of attacking the M.P. in case she is re-elected.
Therefore, I think it is pretty hard to predict who will win the riding. My guess is that the BQ should win by a very tiny majority... but it is frankly only a guess! Jeanne-Le Ber is just "in-between" the west-Island, with strong Liberal tradition, and the francophone popular riding where the BQ is strong.
24/04/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
We're sorry Inukjuak if this sounds a bit harsh, but the comments you made here are just plain ludicrous, and indicative of someone who knows little of Montreal and how people vote there.
First,"I think this riding should be put in the too-close category, along with almost everything the Liberals hold in Quebec." Many Montreal area ridings, especially west end ridings are some of the strongest Liberal supporting ridings in the country. they do not vote like the rest of the province because they are not francophone majorities. Since there are two parties that matter in Quebec (Libs and BQ or federalist and seperatist) it means the staunchly federalist non-francophones will vote Liberal.
Second, "Now that the NDP has elected an energetic, local, bilingual candidate in Anthony Philbin, there will be pressure on the incumbent from both left and right" The NDP have no effect on the outcome in Quebec. As far as Quebecers are concerned, the NDP is a fringe party much like the Greens or the Natural-Law party. the NDP do not put much effort into Quebec because they know they can not win here. As for the effect of the Conservatives (as you said, pressure from both the right and the left) the new party is viewed as the Canadian Alliance was: ultra right win and anti-french. They too will have little effect on the outcome.
Third, "With Equipe Paul Martin sinking rapidly in the polls, no Liberal incumbent is going to have an easy time." Yes some will! Almost all the west-island ridings will still vote massivly Liberal. To think otherwise is just plain wishful thinking by other parties.
Now to be realistic, the one party that does have a chance at beating the Liberals is the BQ. This riding is a mix of both anglophones and francophones and is a poorer district. There has always been a BQ/PQ presence in every election and at times it has been close. However Frulla is a popular candidate, was a radio personality and a nationalist. This last bit will play well with the francophone voters and being a liberal will play well with anglophone voters. She's far far safer than her coleagues who are off the island of Montreal.
13/04/04 Inukjuak
Email: [hidden]
I think this riding should be put in the too-close category, along with almost everything the Liberals hold in Quebec. Now that the NDP has elected an energetic, local, bilingual candidate in Anthony Philbin, there will be pressure on the incumbent from both left and right. With Equipe Paul Martin sinking rapidly in the polls, no Liberal incumbent is going to have an easy time.
19/03/04 syllap
Email: sylapointe@hotmail.com
High profile Liza Frulla to easily return to Ottawa
17/03/04 Neal
Email: nealford@sympatico.ca
Slam dunk for Liza Frulla and the Liberals. the popular former talk show host Frulla was the MNA provincially for several years.
the typical Federalist Separatist fear factor will also help her. She's a nationalist, but because she's under the Liberal banner federalist voters will flock to her with their tails between their legs.

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