08 02 27	King of Kensington 70.52.184.3
Don't be ridiculous. This riding is about as likely to vote Conservative as Toronto-Danforth, Davenport or Vancouver East. The beneficiaries of discontent with the Liberals and the Bloc here would be the NDP. This will be one to watch, but the only certainty is that the Conservatives will fall below deposit level!
	08 02 28	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 76.64.8.65
Well it looks like Jeanne-Le Ber is starting to become the Windsor-Tecumseh of the 2008 Electionprediction-go-round (and originally we thought it was going to be Etobicoke Centre, but it's been all quiet there for some time now). So ‘the Liberals are going down’ in Jeanne-Le Ber? Here's a news flash, they already have...in 2006. The BQ is the incumbent party. Here's another news flash: this is a very WORKING CLASS riding (even more so than Windsor-Tecumseh, and we all know how that turned out), which means, for those who are new to this election predicting thing we do here, will tend to vote for the political left (read: Liberal, NDP or BQ). Here's yet another news flash: the CPC is at 20% in Quebec compared to the 25% they had last election. With numbers like that, they are going to have a hard time keeping ridings like Louis-Hebert (in the recent Conservative/ADQ bastion of Quebec City), let alone pick up a riding where they got a measly 11.8% in 2006! A strong NDP candidate will cut into the BQ vote (and the Liberal vote as well), potentially making it a three-way race. But the contenders will be the BQ, Libs and NDP. NOT the CPC. Frankly we don't think the NDP have enough support to win this riding, just enough to make it interesting and give them hope for a subsequent election. We do concede that the NDP has a chance to pull off another Outremont-like win, but only time will tell. Until then anyone with an iota of common sense will realise that a CPC prediction here is tantamount to lunacy!
	08 02 23	initial 24.37.3.98
Anybody who lives in JLB (or has set foot) knows that the liberals are going down because they have nothing else to offer than their actual leader, who is no match for Harper, and Senator Raymond Lavigne who was an MP for 10 years before Frulla and who lost because of sponsorship. If Breton does run in JLB, he will only cut into the Bloc’s vote and get left wing voters that can’t stand Duceppe anymore. This will help CPC. We’re looking at a tight 3 way race; Bloc./ Lib./ CPC. The stronger NDP gets, the higher CPC’s chances to win this.
	08 02 22	Suaveman 74.56.239.175
If Breton runs here, the NDP will put on a big show, don't make any mistake about it. Breton would be a star candidate (he headed the Quebec-Kyoto organization and co-organized the first anti-war-in-Iraq protests in Montreal). Consider: St-Cyr got elected due to the sponsorship scandal; he isn't well-known and he isn't particularly popular; most people living here probably couldn't even identify him as their MP -he's got a battle on his hands no matter what. I've lived in this riding for many years, the tories ain't got a snowball's chance in hell; and the grits might be able to take the riding back, if the stars align; but people dig the NDP here, if given an opportunity to elect one, they just might go ahead and do it. JLB is certainly one to watch for the pundits.
	08 02 16	David Young 24.138.70.230
With Daniel Breton now the N.D.P. candidate in this riding, three- or four-way races are going to introduce a whole new dynamic in certain ridings in Montreal, given Jack Layton's continued positive polling results.
	08 02 15	A.S. 99.233.96.153
Indeed (and esp. if we take into account reports that the NDP also have a star candidate of sorts in the making), this might be one of the more likely *fourth* place CPC finishes in Quebec--for them to win would involve a wholesale resurrection of Mulroney's grand coalition, which might as well also involve St-Cyr and the Bloc dissolving dissolving themselves on behalf of the Tories, or else the Grits plunging to catastrophic single-digit levels. Heck, given the whole Asper/National Post thang, *Mount Royal* might be a more likely Tory pickup than JLB at this point...
	08 01 27	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 70.51.23.156
CPC win in Jeanne-Le Ber? GIVE US A BREAK! Have you ever set foot in this riding? It's comprised of some of the poorest neighbourhoods in the city. People here will start voting Conservative when the CPC starts becoming competetive in ridings like Vancouver East or Winnipeg North Center. Brison was right on the money to neglect the CPC from his equation.
	08 01 12	initial 24.37.3.98
You miss something important Binriso, I didn’t see CPC in your equation. People are starting to think that Stephen Harper is the most popular leader for the next election, at least in Quebec. It doesn’t mean they are going to win every Montreal ridding, lucky if they get 2 or 3, but the stage changed here since the 2006 election. As for Jeanne-Le Ber, the CPC has a strong candidate, Daniel Beaudin. He is local, well known and hungry; he got heavy support from many Liberals at his nomination contest and won it strongly. Bloc’s St-Cyr was lucky to win in 2006 because of the sponsorship scandals, Senator Lavigne seems like he wants to make a comeback for the Liberals as an MP, and that folks, is good news for all other parties. It’s going to be a real tight race between the BQ, Liberal ant CPC but I think Beaudin should win it
	07 10 04	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 204.187.16.106
Just a thought...inner city, working class, old factories becoming expensive trendy condos for bohemian types, gentrification along the Lachine canal amongst other areas...could this be a riding targeted by a newly invigourated NDP? That is, of course, the NDP's current stint in Quebec is more than a flash in the pan.
	07 06 06	binriso 156.34.212.113
Liberals Up, Bloc way down= Jeanne-Le Ber back to the Liberal fold. The Liberals may not increase their vote % that much in Quebec but they will likely have a large increase in Montreal Laval with little increase in rural Quebec to make it seem like they are not gaining very much when they could gain back several Montreal-laval ridings.
	07 04 09	Brian Appel 64.230.123.143
This area of Montreal is fairly francophone, with some nationalist sentiments around Verdun, but it's a poor fit for the Bloc, overall, due to a large allophone community around Pointe-St-Charles. The left-leaning tendancies of working-class places like Little Burgundy and Saint Henri make it a great place for the NDP to breakthrough into Quebec, once the Bloc are dead and gone. For now, though, St-Cyr is set to lose this riding back to the Liberals.
	07 04 08	M. Lunn 24.80.152.58
I wouldn't call this quite yet. Although I think the Liberals have a good chance at re-taking this, Quebec is quite volatile politically. The main thing is how the Tories will do and who will they steal the most from. They have zero chance at winning this, but even with as little as 10% of the popular vote, they could play the role of spoiler much as Ralph Nader in 2000 with only 4% did in the US.
	07 04 03	JC 207.188.65.7
This one is coming back to the Liberals, as much as Mr. St-Cyr may be a good MP, he won this because of the bottoming of the sponsorship scandal here last time.
	07 04 03	P.P. 70.82.50.99
This is a place where provincial liberals saw the ADQ eat at their majority a bit. Still, this will go back liberal
	07 03 27	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 70.53.96.30
Another riding that was lost more to the sponsorship scandal rather than any actual true BQ support. Though more inclined to stay BQ than some of the other Montreal ridings the Liberals lost due to similar reasons (example: Ahunsic, Papineau, Brossard), any pull that the CPC may have with Francophone voters will help the Liberals (who will keep the bulk of the non-Francophone vote).