Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
6:58 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
1:45 AM 17/03/2004

Constituency Profile
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Robert Gervais
Bloc Québécois:
Louis La Rochelle
Serge Lachapelle
Parti Marijuana Party:
David John Proctor
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Lucienne Robillard
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Brian Sarwer-Foner
Eric Wilson Steedman

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Lachine (20.1%)
Marlene Jennings
Westmount-Ville-Marie (79.9%)
Hon. Lucienne Robillard

2000 Result/Résultats:
23,345 59.47%
4,882 12.44%
4,304 10.96%
2,260 5.76%
4,465 11.37%

(51/221 polls, 14543/75421 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(144/187 polls, 57632/70390 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Tory G
Email: [hidden]
Robert Gervais has been in the news in one form or another even before the writ was dropped... he's a star candidate in Quebec and is scaring Mme Robillard away from debates... should get a decent result for a seat that hasn't been Conservative since Dief!
10/06/04 andrew
Email: [hidden]
I see the NDP coming in a strong second. Canada was complicit in the US led overthrow of a democratically elected leader in Haiti, and only the NDP have criticized this. As violence by the coup leaders and the marines increases, and evidence for Martin's role in supporting the coup emerges, this could become an issue. No doubt many are reflecting that it is fortunate Martin was not in power when Bush was looking for Canadians to join his coalition in Iraq.
25/05/04 Vadeboncoeur
Email: [hidden]
The only - and I mean only - question here is who will come second? This is one of the Liberals bedrock seats, not only in Quebec, but in the entire country. If they lose this one then we are at Paul Martin crash-landing in Kim Campbell country! That said, the battle for second could be kind of interesting - BQ, NDP, Conservatives - anyone of these could end up second and possibly even with their deposit under the right circumstances.
13/05/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
There are 12 ridigns that are solidly liberal in Quebec
this is one of them
The Bloc would need to make up a full 50% of the vote in order to win here, I dont think anyone in history has done that. This is an ELW, an Easy Liberal Win.
13/05/04 Stéphane Gaudet
Email: [hidden]
Victoire libérale facilement prévisible dans ce château-fort fédéraliste qu'est le centre-ville de Montréal, en majorité non-francophone.
08/05/04 DL
Email: [hidden]
I agree that Robillard will win - even though she is a boring dim bulb. But, this riding is not as historically Liberal and some people think. It went Conservative in 1957 and 1958 and it came within 900 votes of going Conservative in 1988.
As Westmount becomes more and more ethnically mixed and more and more of the voters are from downtown Montreal and parts of NDG, it is conceivable that some day this riding could be more aggressively contested - but only when a federalist party becomes a serious contender in Quebec.
04/05/04 Neal
Email: nealford@sympatico.ca
Victor, Your point is well taken. Nowhere else in canada could you insult the voters by appointing a candidate like Lucienne Robillard (She who voted to have the canadian flag removed from the Blue room of the national Assembly) and have them flock to the polls wagging their tails behind them and vote for your party again...overwhelmingly.
If Paul Martin was to lure Former PQ language Tsarina Louise Beaudoin over to run there under the Liberal banner, they'd vote for her too, in droves.
23/04/04 Victor A.
Email: [hidden]
This riding is arguably the richest in the country. We all have different opinions of Lucienne Robillard but Westmount is probably the most PLC place in the country, no doubt about that, and for people outside of Quebec, no.... there is no possibility of any upset, just simply NO.
18/03/04 syllap
Email: sylapointe@hotmail.com
The last time this riding did not vote liberal, R.B. Bennett was prime minister, this gives you a good idea of the results here....even with former Treasury Board "I knew nothing about sponsorship" President Lucienne Robillard.......
18/03/04 syllap
Email: sylapointe@hotmail.com
The last time this riding did not vote liberal, R.B. Bennett was prime minister, this gives you a good idea of the results here....even with former Treasury Board "I knew nothing about sponsorship" President Lucienne Robillard.......
16/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
One of a number of Liberal safe seats in Montreal. With the sponsership scandal looming some votes will go Conservative (mostly in affluent Westmount) and a few to the Bloc (on the fringe of the riding to the east of downtown) but definitly not enough to take it from the Liberals.
16/03/04 NDP Newbie
Email: [hidden]
The NDP may have a strong base of support in the "McGill Ghettos" and the working-class areas of this riding.
The Liberals are invincible in Westmount though, and short of running a well-known Al Qaeda operative as their candidate, there's not much the Liberals can do to screw this one up. If the Cons, Bloc, and NDP can combine for 55% of the vote, the Liberals have suffered a moral defeat.

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