11 05 01	expat 209.105.131.192
Okay, I take back my previous call for the narrowest of Liberal wins here. If the Forum Research poll showing the NDP with 49% in Montreal is accurate (and there is no reason to think it isn't, all the polls in the last week have been showing virtually identical NDP results in Quebec), then seats like this will be going NDP. It will still be close, and a Liberal victory wouldn't shock me, but certainly in Montreal the sense of a fairly vast, deep NDP win is pretty palpable.
	11 04 30	expat 209.105.131.192
I am an absolute believer in the idea of a NDP wave sweeping Quebec and getting many more seats than what the editors of this site and some of the folks posting explanations/ rationalisations here for why that won't happen seem to believe. That said, I think LaSalle-Emard is too close to call but slightly leaning Liberal, and could end up being one of a handful of Liberal holds in Quebec. In 2008, the Liberal incumbent won 40%. the Bloc was second with 24%, the Conservative won 16%, and the NDP was in 4th with 13%. If the NDP were to win here, they will have to draw not just a large number of Bloc votes, but also take a very large chunk of Liberal voters (as well a motivating past non-voters). The Liberal vote in ridings like this with a large (30%) allophone populaton seems to be holding up better than among Anglophone/Francophones. If that is the case, the only way the NDP wins here is if the Bloc vote collapses locally even more dramatically than it does across Quebec. A NDP win here would not shock me -the candidate is a credible local community activist - but at the moment I believe the Liberal will pull out a win by a narrow margin.
	11 04 28	keefr 96.48.131.130
It seems likely the NDP will capture this on their wave of support in Quebec, barring any last moment mass meltdown or change of mind by the voters. Paul Martin himself may not have been able to save it at this point.
	11 04 26	Teddy Boragina 198.96.35.248
After re-examining my projection, taking into account the new polls, the NDP will win this seat in a landslide.
	11 04 25	WAC 99.230.244.3
Trust me, I can't believe I'm writing this either. Environics and EKOS have the NDP in the lead in Quebec by 12-13 points. the EKOS polls has the NDP at over 42% in the 514/450 area codes and the Liberals at 14%. This seat would be far more vulnerable to falling to the NDP than say Lac St-Louis or Mont Royal. If the polling numbers are right - then this seat goes NDP - if not it stays Liberal by the smallest of margins. Time for the Election Prediction Project to start making most of the island of Montreal TCTC.
	11 04 26	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 65.92.25.58
NDP will come second here. The Liberals are holding their numbers and the BQ are hurting. Not enough BQ support for the NDP to surpass the Liberals.
	11 04 21	Teddy Boragina 174.118.61.19
A recent poll put the NDP at 31% in Quebec, in first place. If this remains so, ridings like this one would be won by the NDP. Fortunately for the successor to Paul Martin, this is only one poll. If, however, the trend remains, I'll have to re-examine this prediction.
	11 03 28	M.Lunn 174.116.190.108
Paul Martin may no longer be running here, but this is by nature a fairly strong Liberal riding thus even without Paul Martin on the ballot, they should still win this, albeit with plurality rather than outright majority.
	11 03 28	Tony Ducey 76.11.85.66
Zarac keeps this seat for the Liberals. Obviously she's not as strong as Martin but she's still been a decent MP.
	09 10 08	JEB 70.82.30.39
Zarac is in danger in this riding... Not because of other parties but because of her own! Seems like some ?star candidates? are aiming at Lasalle Emard to be get elected and take a seat in Ottawa. She was Paul Martin's choice, but now the ex PM is long gone.
	09 08 24	David 24.203.233.146
Libéral, ya rien d'autre à dire! Une borne fontaine pourrait y être élue pourvu qu'elle soit rouge.
	11 04 28	Voice of Reason 64.56.142.209
Bear and Ape - you've stated a number of times (including here) that Liberal support is holding in Quebec. Where does that come from? The most recent four polls have the Libs down 8 - 10% in Quebec from last election, and that's a continuation of the trend since NDP started to surge. Going from 24% down to 14 - 16 is fully 40% of their votes. Cons support has held better than the Liberals. Barring a last minute pull back a riding like this seems certain to go NDP.
	11 04 28	Voice of Reason 64.56.142.209
Bear and Ape - you've stated a number of times (including here) that Liberal support is holding in Quebec. Where does that come from? The most recent four polls have the Libs down 8 - 10% in Quebec from last election, and that's a continuation of the trend since NDP started to surge. Going from 24% down to 14 - 16 is fully 40% of their votes. Cons support has held better than the Liberals. Barring a last minute pull back a riding like this seems certain to go NDP.