Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-24 10:20:00

Constituency Profile


Brade, Melissa

Merrifield, Rob

Schaefer, Monika

Siezmagraff, Zack

Strydhorst, Jacob

Wells, Mark

Hon. Rob Merrifield

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • athabasca (2/183 Polls)
  • red-deer (5/238 Polls)
  • st-albert (6/210 Polls)
  • yellowhead (205/219 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 17 C.A.B.
    This was the worst Liberal riding in the country in 2008, where they finished in fourth place with a paltry 4% of the vote. Not terribly surprising, given that this is Rural Alberta, but the Liberals actually won here as recently as 1968. Yes, as strange as it seems today, this part of Rural Alberta actually succumbed to Trudeaumania. As for the Tories, they won with over 70% of the vote, and a 60-point margin. It'll be another ridiculously easy hold for them in 2011.
    11 03 29 M. Lunn
    Jasper may be a four way race, but the rest of the riding is solidly conservative like the rest of Alberta and with 95% of the riding's population living outside of Jasper, this means it is a very safe Tory riding.
    09 08 24 EP
    Regardless of the ups and downs of national trends, Alberta continues to favour the Conservative Party with 60% or more. That number can only be higher once we take Edmonton into account. Unless the Wildrose Alliance starts to field federal candidates, this rural Alberta riding wills stay in the “solidly Conservative column for the foreseeable future.

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