Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-18 19:05:13

Constituency Profile


Guilbeault, Steven

Julien, Cyril

Lachapelle, Serge

Lamontagne, Kimberly

Lavarenne, Jean-Michel

Machouf, Nimâ

Michel, Marie-Eve-Lyne

Morin, Julie

Reich, Ronan

Tanguay, Daniel

Welsh, Adrien


Steven Guilbeault

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



10.40 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Steven Guilbeault 2230641.80%
Nimâ Machouf 1345325.20%
Michel Duches 1218822.80%
Jamil Azzaoui 32256.00%
Lise des Greniers 15022.80%
Christine Bui 3200.60%
Archie Morals 2080.40%
Serge Lachapelle 980.20%
Adrien Welsh 670.10%
Dimitri Mourkes 420.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Hélène Laverdière ** 2092938.30%
Gilles Duceppe 1569928.70%
Christine Poirier 1293823.70%
Daniel Gaudreau 22424.10%
Cyrille Giraud 19043.50%
Stéphane Beaulieu 6041.10%
Julien Bernatchez 1600.30%
Serge Lachapelle 1030.20%
Pierre Fontaine 1020.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 6771.32%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (82.12% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (10.48% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (6.39% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (1.01% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/09/21 Dr Bear
Having been born and raised in Montreal, I have seen this riding change over the years. In my youth, much of what is now Laurier St Marie was poor, run-down and unilingual/uni-cultural. Today it has gentrified, diversified and is prosperous. Walk through LaFontaine Park and you see/hear Montreal’s rich diversity, much to the chagrin of the BQ and the separatists. It is now much more like Toronto-Danforth than ridings facing it across the river in Longeuil or even (cautiously saying it) like neighbouring Hochelaga (for now, as the creep of gentrification moves east).
What does this mean electorally? Barring BQ support returning to pre-2011 levels, this riding won’t be embracing them. And while I would argue that this is a natural NDP seat (much like Toronto-Danforth), the NDP just don’t have the steam in Quebec to make the upset this time. The Liberal incumbent is a strong fit for this riding and I think that he will be returned to Ottawa fairly easily.
18/09/21 J.F. Breton
Le NPD avait bon espoir de chauffer les Libéraux ici, mais la division du vote d'opposition à Guilbeault entre le NPD et le Bloc devrait lui permettre de se faufiler et de l'emporter.
17/09/21 jeff316
A Liberal win here is really not in question. The race here is for second and could it be the Bloc? Having a strong candidate with QS ties come in third here would effectively kill NDP dreams in Québec for another generation.
14/09/21 kingstonstudent
Like Hochelaga, the NDP holding on to their ground here in 2015 - against Gilles Duceppe, no less - showed that Laurier--Saint-Marie was one of their most friendly ridings in the province. You could make a case for each of the Bloc, NDP and Liberals here - for the Bloc, it depends on the polling bump materializing and its old nationalist tendencies expressing themselves. For the NDP, it depends on the strong candidacy of Nima Machouf and the probability that any polling rise in Quebec will make itself felt in ridings like Laurier first before it shows up in the Cote-Nord or Monteregie. The Liberals will be relying, apart from Trudeau's relative popularity in Quebec, on Steven Guilbeault, and his rocky record as a cabinet minister makes it difficult to tell in advance what their chances will be.
06/09/21 Drew613
This was a comfortable margin win for the Libs in 2019. I think with the Bloc at best steady in Quebec and more likely down, that this will be a Liberal-NDP race. A new Sept. 1st large sample Leger Quebec-only poll has BQ support at only 13% on the Island of Montreal - that's lower than the Conservatives who are at 15%! The NDP are flirting with 20% support, meaning they could main threat in Laurier-Sainte-Marie to the Libs and not the NDP. A stronger NDP could also result in vote splitting to produce a larger margin of victory Liberal win. One to watch on election night for sure. https://2g2ckk18vixp3neolz4b6605-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Rapport-politique-federale-1-sept-2021-VF.pdf
04/09/21 Marco Ricci
The BQ numbers in Québec are stagnant right now and they are currently projected to be at risk of losing seats. 338 shows this riding still leaning Liberal with the NDP in 2nd and the BQ in 3rd. 2008 was the last time the BQ won here. It went NDP in the 2011 Orange Wave, stayed NDP in 2015, and then went Liberal in 2019. The riding appears to have moved away from the BQ over the past decade. Steven Guilbeault is still favoured for now.
31/08/21 GritBusters
For progressive and democratic socialist voters, the Trudeau Liberals have proven to an emperor with no clothes when it comes to the environment and foreign policy.
Look for the Boulerice to hold Rosemont for the NDP and for Hochelaga and Laurier-Sainte-Marie to return to the Bloc due to the NDP's overall weakness in Quebec.
25/08/21 R.O.
Hard to believe this used to be Gilles Duceppes riding when he was bloc leader although not sure its high on there target list this year now that Steven Guilbeault mp. It had also been ndp in 2011-15 so more of a left of centre riding than a riding loyal to one party.
15/08/21 A.S.
When it comes to ‘erasing Canadians' freedom of expression’; well, given that we're talking about a riding that's had the consistently *weakest* results in the country for CPC and other right-of-centre options, you can't expect much. Then again, the CAQ-era Bloc *does* bow to some of that sentiment--however, it's also why they're a third-place party in their old Duceppean heart. As I foresaw in '19, ‘Millennial cosmopolitanism’ and a certain present-day ‘urban universal’ is what made the Guilbeault-electing difference...and is also what made the NDP the 2nd-place party; for all the talk of their '19 electoral catastrophe in Quebec, little is said of how, under the circumstance, the Dippers actually held their own within Montreal, which should increasingly be viewed as a universe apart from the Rest Of Quebec. Urban Montrealers are too inherently cosmopolitan to be put off by a leader w/a turban. So if there's any race here *now*, it's in the Guilbeault-Machouf rematch--and in Machouf falls short, it's in the more generic way that the NDP falls short in downtown Toronto ridings, not in a broadly convenient ‘Jagmeet doesn't sell in Quebec’ way...
08/08/21 Stevo
I'd love to think that Steven Guilbeault's passion for erasing Canadians' freedom of expression would lead to some sort of electoral backlash, but considering the NDP and the Bloc both largely support the same measures it's unlikely to be discussed.
01/08/21 Marco Ricci
I think Steven Guilbeault is favoured here. He won by an impressive 16 points in 2019 in a riding that the Liberals hadn't won in 30 years. He is now the incumbent and has continued to have a high profile as a cabinet minister. The BQ hasn't won here since 2008, so the riding may be out of their hands for the near future, and the NDP probably doesn't have enough support in Québec to win here. So Guilbeault is likely looking at another win.
11/05/21 Ottawa99
Je pense qu'il y a plusieurs explications pour la victoire étonnement forte de Guilbeault en 2019. D'abord, je pense que la popularité de Gilles Duceppe avait gonflé les résultats du Bloc pendant des années, dans une circonscription qui a connu beaucoup de gentrification récemment, en particulier au Village et sur le Plateau. Deuxièmement, le virage vers le centre et le rapprochement avec la CAQ du Bloc l'a probablement aidé dans beaucoup de circonscriptions au Québec, mais évidemment pas avec l'électorat de Québec Solidaire, et cette circonscription contient beaucoup de ses partisans. Troisièmement, la candidature de Guilbeault était certainement bénéfique pour le PLC.
Étant donné qu'aucun de ces facteurs a changé et que le PLC est actuellement dans une meilleure position dans les sondages au Québec qu'il l'était en 2019, je pense que Guilbeault va très facilement gagner. Je pense toutefois que le NPD va gagner quelques points de plus qu'en 2019 (28-30%). Dans le contexte de la pandémie, Nimâ Machouf est maintenant beaucoup plus connue, ce que je pense gonflera les chiffres du NPD un peu dans cette circonscription.
09/05/21 J.F. Breton
Plusieurs n'auront pas compris pourquoi Steven Guilbault n'avait pas été nommé ministre de l'Environnement à son arrivée. Or, c'était la chose à faire. L'inverse l'aurait brûlé politiquement, étant donné son passé d'environnementaliste. Il a fait ses classes au Patrimoine et est devenu un politicien plus aguerri. Avec la débandade du NPD au Québec, il a toutes les chances de conserver sa circonscription.

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