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élection générale (Canada) - 2009/10

Laurier-Sainte-Marie


La prévision a changé
2009-08-19 21:20:41
 


 
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candidats:

Député:
Gilles Duceppe

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • laurier-sainte-marie (184/210 Polls)
  • outremont (25/178 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer. Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage.

    10 01 26 Kyle H
    24.141.182.178
    No doubt Duceppe will win here, and when he retires, the Bloc will will still keep the riding. People need to remember that when Duceppe won this in 1990, it wasn't because he was widely known among the populace - its because he was the Bloc-backed candidate (he ran as an independent then). Sovereignty has a big base in this riding, much bigger than the federalist base.
    And to make a funnier point - I remember looking back at 2008 and seeing everyone going on about how the NDP finished second last time, and that this would be a strictly NDP-leaning seat for federalist votes. Well, I figured that wouldn't hold in 2008 - the Liberals have an advantage here. The university, the large artisan population, the gay village - all these are left-leaning, Liberal voters. The NDP vote is almost an aberration.
    10 01 26 Kyle H
    24.141.182.178
    No doubt Duceppe will win here, and when he retires, the Bloc will will still keep the riding. People need to remember that when Duceppe won this in 1990, it wasn't because he was widely known among the populace - its because he was the Bloc-backed candidate (he ran as an independent then). Sovereignty has a big base in this riding, much bigger than the federalist base.
    And to make a funnier point - I remember looking back at 2008 and seeing everyone going on about how the NDP finished second last time, and that this would be a strictly NDP-leaning seat for federalist votes. Well, I figured that wouldn't hold in 2008 - the Liberals have an advantage here. The university, the large artisan population, the gay village - all these are left-leaning, Liberal voters. The NDP vote is almost an aberration.
    09 09 11 Marco Ricci
    72.138.2.68
    Yes, I think it's true that this was the Conservatives' worst result in all of Quebec, and maybe even in Canada. Not only did they finish behind the BQ, Liberals and NDP, but also the Green party. It's clear they have no support in downtown Montreal. It may also be because this riding has Montreal's Gay Village - gay voters are not particularly close to the Conservatives.
    Everyone knows that this seat stays with Duceppe while he is in office, and so predictions here are now about what comes down the road. The NDP does have some support here, but we have to remember it is the Liberals who finished 2nd here in 2008, and this used to be a Liberal riding before Duceppe won it many years ago. It could therefore also be a Liberal target when Duceppe retires.
    09 09 07 Stevo
    99.251.76.167
    Aside from this being Duceppe's riding, Laurier-Sainte-Marie is notable for (and correct me if I'm wrong on this) having the WORST showing by a Conservative candidate in the country - 5th place, and 4.8% of the popular vote!
    If Tom Mulcair next door is re-elected once more and thus stabilized as a long-term MP, and giving the NDP a nice base in Montreal, I agree that this riding is a very likely NDP target once Duceppe calls it quits.
    Le candidat Conservateur s'est retrouvé en 5eme place dans la derniere élection et avec le souten de 4,84 % des gens, le pire de n'importe quel candidat du PCC au pays. Quand M. Duceppe décidera de partir de la vie politique, je crois que l'NPD pourra menacer le Bloc ici, en particulier si M. Mulcair juste à coté d'ici survivra!
    09 08 18 Nick J Boragina
    198.96.35.219
    Duceppe was elected here, officially, as an Independent back in the early 1990s. The Liberals were never able to threaten him during the mid and late 90s. In fact the only party that could knock him off is the NDP (taking away his left-wing base) but in order to do that, they'd been to first pull out of their current pathetic polling numbers, and second do better, quite a bit better, within Quebec than they did in 2008. There are no signs of this.



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