08 04 07	Mad Max 69.157.72.63
Not only was the NDP victory surprising, so was the size of the lead in a by-election. This win was more then just a protest vote. I can't see the Liberals taking this one back in a General Election. This could turn out to be a safe NPD seat.
	08 03 09	Ancastarian 72.38.158.55
Well I hardly would say Muclair is unbeatable. According to my my French Housemates who all happen to live in Outremont, Muclair will not be around for long. They repeatedly tell me that Muclair's victory was more a protest, and that the Liberals will be restored in the event of a General Election. Considering how much they loathe the Liberals, I see no reason not to believe them...
	08 02 18	DL 99.233.94.146
According to Jean Lapierre, Martin Cauchon will NOT run for the Liberals in Outremont and in fact, the Liberals are having a hard time finding anyone to run in Outremont because the conventional wisdom is that Mulcair is unbeatable.
	08 02 16	A.S. 99.233.96.153
*Martin Cauchon* vs Mulcair, oo-er, I'd hope the NDP prepared for that possibility. Then again, in terms of 2008, the Grits, and Montreal, Cauchon's a bit yesterday's-mannish; I'd actually give him less chance versus Mulcair than Gerard Kennedy vs Peggy Nash at this point. Replacing PMPM in LaSalle-Emard, though, is another matter entirely...
	08 01 27	24.207.52.31
if cauchon runs here, which i think he will, the liberals will win. if not the edge goes to mulcair although it will be a lot closer. p.s. the conservative vote declined a bit here in the by election, i wonder if they voted NDP?
	07 12 13	J.Mc. 24.32.250.167
I think Mulcair will likely hold this, but based upon his personal popularity, rather than his party. I.e., this will become a 'Mulcair' riding, rather than an 'NDP' riding. The by-election was, certainly, TCTC (I would have actually predicted Liberal on that one), but, with the incumbent advantage, he should be able to pull off a narrow victory.
	07 10 27	binriso 156.34.232.141
This is by no means a beginning to an NDP Outremont dynasty, but lets look at it a little closer. Controversial Liberal candidate and no incumbent in the riding, strongest NDP riding in Quebec last time, NDP strong star candidate, Massive effort by the NDP to win the riding, way more than the Liberals, some strategic voting by the other parties, mainly the BQ and of course a much lower turnout than the provincial election (~24000 votes as opposed to about ~40000 votes in the 2006 election). Now the NDP win here was solid enough so that I predict they will keep in next election, but the margin will be closer and there is no way the NDP can put as much effort into winning as they did in the byelection. A non controversial Liberal star candidate might even make this TCTC...
	07 10 05	Paul Tremblay 24.37.30.198
I would not bet the farm on this riding staying with the NDP in the general election. Don't get me wrong, Mulcair *is* popular, he will get a lot of votes, he does have a good chance to keep the riding, but a large part of his support in the by-election came from separatists who wanted to humiliate Stephane Dion and I wouldn't count on those voters to not return to the Bloc in a general election. There was also a problem with the Liberal candidate himself; I assume that Mr. Coulon won't be the Liberal candidate next time (if he is Mulcair will win). Personal popularity does not go that far in getting votes in an urban riding in a general election. At this point it is too early to say who will here next time.
	07 09 30	John 66.48.175.88
The Liberals are still licking their wounds here. I can't see voter sentiment switching fast enough for the Liberals to make up lost ground if the government falls to a non-confidence vote in October. Beyond that, short of Muclair commiting political suicide, time is on the NDP side. If the federal election is in 2008, possible considering no one really has anything to gain by forcing an election, or even 2009, Muclair has a great opportunity to establish a track record as someone to vote for. I'll lean NDP on this one.
	07 09 19	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 70.51.131.208
Hey Nick J Boragina. We too didn't see it coming either! We like Mulcair and are glad he won but we were surprised. It remains to be seen if this ends up indeed another historical curiosity like the last NDP win in Quebec, or if it the start of something new. Bottom line is Mulcair and the NDP have now got their foot in the door, however byelections are easier to win than general elections. Are all those Liberal supporters who didn't vote on Monday kicking themselves now? If it looks like the CPC is going to form a majority, are they going to stay home or cast a protest vote? Many questions to answer and only time will tell. As for now, good job Tom!
	07 09 21	Tom 130.64.137.61
This should be safe for the NDP. Their victory in the by-election was far larger than anyone, even NDP rampers, were suggesting, and I see no reason for the situation to change in a general election.
	07 09 20	Stevo 76.64.64.93
Well, Outremont is now the Quebec equivalent of New Brunswick's Acadie-Bathurst - a traditionally Liberal constituency falling to the NDP, and which will now likely stay NDP for as long as the current very popular incumbent remains in politics. Yes, star candidates have crashed and burned more often than they have soared, but I think in Thomas Mulcair the NDP have found a veritable longterm star. Unfortunately for the Dippers, their growth in Quebec is limited, and Outremont is all but certain to fall back into Liberal hands whenever Mulcair leaves federal politics.
	07 09 18	binriso 156.34.212.190
I really cant say im overly surprised. The Liberals did pretty bad with this campaign and dropped a few % from 06, NDP's was better and many BQ, CPC and Green voters strategically voted NDP. Really surprised that the BQ vote dropped off so much though, the PQ still did get 25% here in the provincial election. I think we can say that the NDP will hold this with Mulcair as their candidate in the next election, although without him they will probably lose it. Only way that the Liberals will have a chance to win next time is if they get Martin Cauchon to come back and run for them. If only the Liberals had nominated Justin Trudeau... In the end its kind of interesting. A NDP riding at the crossroads between the BQ dominated east and the Liberal dominated west of Montreal.
	07 09 17	Nick J Boragina 74.13.125.185
I want to add a bit of reason to my knee-jerk prediction earlier. Going back to 1993, this is the best riding for the NDP in the province. Even in the 1988 election, when the NDP got 14% in the province, Outrmeont was within the top 10 of thier results, and many of the ridings where the NDP did better either today have a Bloc MP, or (like Westmount) have solid Liberal support. I took a look next at 1984. Most strong ridings are different (EG ridings strong in 88 were not strong in 84) but Ouremont was strong here as well. Even in 1980, the NDP finished second here (albeit with 4K votes VS the 23K of the Liberal winner) Going back this far Outremont starts to fall in prominence in the NDP result in Quebec, in 1980 the riding did not perform well. Go back to 1979, however, and Outremont jumps back to the top 4. The pattern I see is that as of late it has been strong for the NDP, while in the past it's been strong for the NDP when the Tories have done fairly well in Quebec. Seeing the Tories doing well this time, I'm going to re-enforce my projection that the NDP will win this riding at the general election (assuming Mulcair wins - if not, it's a grit lock) This riding will become the NDP’s Joilette. That was a riding the PC’s won in Quebec election after election, even if they had little or no other support in the rest of the province.

	By-election Prediction	Incumbent Courant	Prediction Prévision	Elected Elu
	Outremont

	07 09 14	Interested Observer 204.40.1.129
From today's column of the esteemed Chantal Hébert of the Toronto Star: Earlier this month, with three crucial by-elections only weeks away, the bulk of Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion's brain trust, including the Quebec co-chair of his national election readiness committee Lucie Santoro, signed up for a trip to Israel sponsored by the Canada-Israel Committee. A charitable explanation for the decision of some of Dion's top strategists to micromanage his first electoral test from the Middle East at a critical juncture of the campaign would be that all was satisfactorily taken care of on the home front. But that explanation does not sustain the test of reality. Earlier this summer, Marc Lavigne – the chief Quebec organizer on the Dion leadership campaign – quietly handed in his resignation as deputy national director of the party. According to Liberal sources, the resignation stated that he ‘was unable to implement organizational plans.’ That sentence may be a polite euphemism for a disaster-in-the-making in the three ridings that go to the polls on Monday. By all indications, Dion's candidates in Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot and Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean are not even in contention for second place. But it is the creaky wheels of the campaign in the Liberal fortress of Outremont that should really send alarms bells ringing throughout the party. Three days to the vote, a Liberal cakewalk has turned into a cliffhanger with the NDP emerging as the party to beat in Outremont. In the final sprint to the vote, Liberal campaign literature has yet to land on most of the riding's doorsteps. With the NDP working hard to get its recently recruited Quebec star, former provincial environment minister Thomas Mulcair, into Parliament, local Liberals complain it has never been so difficult to recruit volunteers, even in the dark days of the sponsorship affair. That should be a sobering wake-up call for the many Liberal strategists who continue to put the party's 2006 demise in Quebec down to a circumstantial backlash triggered by the scandal. It should also serve as shock treatment for the widespread delusion that the native-son syndrome will do the trick for the Dion-led party in Quebec. There is no denying that the neophyte leader drags much unity baggage in his home province, but certainly no more than Jean Chrétien. He was on the wrong side of the Meech constitutional debate in Quebec when he became leader in 1990 but still had no trouble hanging on to staunchly federalist ridings such as Outremont. Chrétien used to be as popular in Ontario as he was vilified in Quebec; Dion seems to inspire the same tepid feelings in both provinces. At a time when sovereignist parties are undergoing a crisis of relevance, the Bloc Québécois is bracing to lose votes to its federalist foes on Monday, but not to the Liberals. The NDP is poised to benefit from a slippage of the anti-war Bloc vote in Outremont while, in Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean, Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe's candidate is locked in two-way fight with his Conservative opponent. If the Liberals do poorly on Monday, they will not necessarily be alone in their predicament. Duceppe, Stephen Harper and Jack Layton are all playing for high stakes. But if his party underperforms, Dion – as an untested leader – will take the biggest hit. Of the main federal leaders, he alone has to convince an increasingly dubious party that there is not a better person for his job looming on the sidelines.
	07 09 14	F. Paridis 207.112.50.131
The La Presse poll confirms that the Liberal campaign is in difficulty. At this late stage - have the Liberals bottomed out or have the NPD peaked too soon? If the Liberals are sending in campaign workers from Ottawa - they are in big trouble and are scrambling. The Layton team will win Monday.
	07 09 14	no 74.56.84.104
I have received nothing from the Liberals, one from the Bloc, two from the Tories and one from Mulcair, a visit from an NDP MP and before that a visit from Layton. One call from the Bloc. One call from the NDP. Getting them in person sure beats a piece of paper!
	07 09 14	GFW 70.55.62.11
Well, JN, I think you may get your wish as regards Mulcair being declared the front-runner. The poll in Friday the 14th's La Presse shows Mulcair in the lead in Outremont with 38% of voter intentions. We all know that the only poll which counts is the one on election day. But if these poll results hold for the 17th, then Mulcair will take it. Still, this poll showed the Liberals only five points back from the NDP, making this statistically TCTC. My money's on a Mulcair win, though I won't be surprised if the Libs retake this riding by a whisker.
	07 09 14	Nick J Boragina 74.100.251.74
Holy Mulclair Batman! The NDP is 6 points ahead in the by-election, according to media reports, and if they win it, they'll hold on to it at the general election. crikey! I did not see this coming.
	07 09 14	J.F. Breton 70.81.225.19
Sondage Unimarketing - La Presse du 14 septembre: NPD 38%, PLC 32%, BQ 14%, Verts 8%, PCC 7%. Ce sera très serré, puisque la machine libérale est mieux huilée que la machine néo-démocrate. Il sera sans doute plus facile de faire sortir le vote de base libéral, le vote néo-démocrate étant sans doute plus volatil. Ceci dit, la notoriété de Mulcair devrait lui donner un seond souffle. Je prévois (qui aurait cru ça possible) une victoire à l'arrachée du NPD.
	07 09 14	DL 38.99.136.242
This is going NDP and it may not even be all that close. La Presse came out with a poll today of 1,000 voters in Outremont and it has Mulcair of the NDP at 38% and Coulon of the Liberals at 32% and the forgettable BQ candidate a very distant third at 14% with the Tory and the Green candidates vying for 4th place in single digits. The BQ vote may fall even more as the front page screaming headlines in La Presse show that their candidate is dead in the water and that only the NDP can administer a coup de grace to Stephane Dion and his Grade Z local candidate.
	07 09 14	Porter 198.103.172.9
Time to move the prediction on this one. The numbers don't appear to be as close as believed. With only 3 days to go, La Presse reports that an extensive poll of the Outremont riding shows the NDP candidate Thomas Mulcair leading the Liberal Jocelyn Coulon, 38% to 32 %. The Bloc Québécois candidate Jean-Paul Gilson follows with a meager 14 % and the Conservative Gilles Duguay comes in fourth. http://www.cyberpresse.ca/article/20070914/CPACTUALITES/70914020/1019/CPACTUALITES
	07 09 14	Mark 65.92.7.29
I received pamphlets from the NDP, the Cons, the BQ... but got a call only from the BQ. A poll released today shows the NDP's Mulcair in the lead... the deciding factor is whether the NDP can ‘get out the vote’ on E-Day.. the libs have the support from surrounding ridings to boost their E-day efforts http://www.cjad.com/news/565/586250
	07 09 13	King of Kensington 76.64.31.70
I predict Mulcair will win this for the NDP. Mulcair appeals to anglos and Quebecois alike and can take from both the Liberals and the Bloc. The Bloc is running a nobody and the NDP is the most appealing party to the type of people who vote Bloc in Montreal. And many left-leaning federalists who voted strategically for the Liberals will go to Mulcair as well. Not to mention the NDP is the only party that holds the same position on the Afghan mission as most of the people in Quebec - and to a large degree they have been successful in turning this byelection into a referendum on it. People have mentioned the ‘Jewish vote’ which represents about 10% of the riding. Coulon may have lost the chassidic vote to the Conservatives. Not that it really matters much because the Tories aren't a factor here. Only about one-third of the Jewish population in the riding is chassidic and much of the rest is made up of urban secular Jews who won't cast their vote on the Israel issue and will swing toward Mulcair. The riding is basically Montreal's equivalent to Trinity-Spadina in Toronto. This means the Conservatives are a non-factor and it has a lot of the urban intelligentsia and bohemian elements that will go NDP. Prediction: NDP 36%, LIB 30%, BQ 20%, CPC 12%
	07 09 12	GFW 70.55.54.168
Has anyone living in this riding received pamphlets in the mail from either the NDP or the Tories? I've received only those from the Bloc and the Liberals, yet the NDP and the Tories both maintain they did mail-outs. Any insights people?
	07 09 11	JN 65.93.195.120
I don't know why the prediction of this riding has not changed yet to NDP. It seems to me that the majority of posters here have predicted it will swing NDP. I heard Mulcair on Radio Canada today debating the others and it sounds like he will carry it. The Bloc vote is atrophying, Coulon doesn't inspire and the cons have no visibility in the riding. Mulcair will win here on the 17th.
	07 09 10	binriso 156.34.210.169
Well im not so sure anymore. NDP are making a big charge to win this riding and I havent heard too much from the Liberals. I was right about there being alot of candidates, there are 12. Now as far as the minor candidates, there does not seem to be any independent seperatists and there are 2 candidates that are part of the CAP(ones an independent) which takes votes right from the Liberals and NDP most likely. Most of the smaller parties candidates will take votes off of the Liberal and NDP which helps the CPC and BQ, but the CPC wont win, since they havent done very well in this riding, and the BQ most likely wont since they are in a bit of a decline, not to mention the PQ's loss in March. It will most likely be a very close race and probably within 1000 votes. Interestingly, Outremont is next to Laurier(Duceppe's riding) and Rosemont la Petite Patrie to the North which are both strong BQ areas. I think the BQ has an outside chance to win this but there would have to be a perfect split Liberal/NDP and the CPC would have to take quite a bit off of the Liberals for the BQ to win. Now as for the frontrunners, the NDP has a much stronger candidate, tons of MP's and others helping out but the Liberals are stronger organized on the ground and hold most of the bordering seats. Im not so certain of a Liberal victory anymore but of the 4 main parties the only one scenario that would overly surprise me would be a CPC win. TCTC between the Liberals and NDP for now though. Ok well if Muclair wins in Outremont, the NDP would get instant credibility as a serious alternative party in Quebec. Certainly, their vote would increase as they would take left wingers from the BQ and Greens and federalist votes from the CPC and Liberals and Greens. Now im still pretty sure this'll be BQ next time but a good showing by the NDP this time could put them in contention to make a serious run a few years from now. The CPC though here still has the best chance to knock out the BQ.
	07 09 04	F. Paridis 65.95.135.37
It is clear that there is change in the air.....when Liberals are in disarray in supposedly a safe riding. First time that I have seen signs that are not red/white for the federal Liberals. Coulon has few signs and even less excitement. NDP is stronger that I ever thought could be possible here. Not sure what is happening with BQ and Conservative campaigns...not much activity that I can see. Mulcair will do well. Dion is simply not selling well in Quebec and appears to be a major factor as to why the Liberal campaign hasn't taken off. Stay tuned. Byelections often yield surprising results.
	07 09 05	HugoTheLiberator 64.230.86.180
The NDP will pick this up, as much because the Hasidim will vote Tory because the Liberal candidate is views is anti-Israel se because of Mulclair's star power.
	07 08 31	Ontarioguy 216.167.247.239
I don't pretend to be an expert on Quebec politics, but I think that there is one point that makes a competative NDP candidate alluring as a choice in a byelection. That point is that this is the only byelection of the few that will take place on that day that the NDP is even on the radar. The NDP is renowned at being quite good at working byelections and will have any and all resources across the country working this particular one. The other parties will be spreading the troops a little more. I have no idea if the NDP has identified enough votes, but one thing is for sure, and that is that if they have, those votes will be pulled on e-day.
	07 08 30	David 74.56.41.15
J'ai parlé avec plusieurs connaissances demeurant dans cette circonscription et ayant pour la plupart toujours voté libéral! Cette année plusieurs d'entre eux, presque la moitié, m'ont avoué vouloir voter pour le NPD parce qu'ils aiment Mulcair, qu'ils n'apprécient pas la controverse entourant les propos de Jocelyn Coulon et parce qu'ils sont contre la guerre en Afghanistan. Si je me fie aux résultats de la dernière élection je crois que les résultats n'ont jamais été aussi difficile à prédire dans Outremont qu'en ce moment... Si Mulcair frappe très fort en volant les votes aux libéraux, il a une chance. Si son effet est sensible mais pas suffisant, il laisse alors la chance au bloquiste de se faufiler... Les conservateurs ne sont définitivement pas de la partie dans ce comté!
	07 08 27	initials AHA 74.56.206.40
I have been talking to locals a lot lately and am starting to feel that the NDP might actually do better than I thought here. I was quite sure that the Liberal machine would kick in fast to push a newcomer like Coulon but they are only just opening up their office, have very few posters and have only sent Coulon to a few safe liberal functions like the Greek Feast of the Virgin, with Justin in tow. The posters have no liberal red at all! But more and more liberals I talk to are still not convinced they made the right choice for candidate (remember they rejected Justin and a young female environment critic) or leader so are not sure they will even vote this time. The traditional Bloc and Tory voters want to vote Green or neoRhino as they think they don't have a chance against Mulcair or Coulon. There is an odd feeling in the air and it be the wind of change...
	07 08 27	P.P. 70.81.221.100
This is a tough one to call. I go by an elimination process. The conservative have little chance of winning here. This is not conservative land. The ADQ did poorly here. And, in Quebec, the war in Afghanistan is VERY unpopular. This is not Bloc country either. They might get a sizable chunk of the vote but this riding isn't francophone enough to give more than 25 % of the vote to the Bloc. Normally, Outremont should be a no-brainer. It is Liberal country, but they have 3 strikes against them : first, Dion is a very unpopular leader among the francophone. Second, the choice of Mr Coulon to represent them in this riding is likely to infuriate a sizable part of the Jewish electorate. I don't see the Jewish vote going to the Conservative or the Bloc. That leaves us with the NDP. They have the strongest stance against the Afghan war. They also have a VERY strong candidate and both the Anglos and Jews that would want to desert the liberals this time may feel comfortable to vote for Thomas Mulcair.
	07 08 17	GFW 70.55.62.86
I can't wait til they have local debates here. A debate between such candidates should be exciting, that is providing that the Libs don't pull out at the last moment or refuse like they've done in the past. Maybe that's why I'd like to watch a local debate in Outremont: Because we never have them here, so it would be something new. It goes like this: The Bloc will debate anyone as long as the Libs show up; And the Libs will only debate the Bloc. At least, that's how it's been in the past. I find it interesting that the Libs seem to be calling the shots here when they obtained only 35% of the vote in 2006, and that was *down* from the 40% they got in 2004. Here's to hoping for debates!
	07 08 14	24.81.18.126
Beatle Bailey Buster: Seeing the polls right now, I don't think the Conservatives will take this one. Usually by-elections tend to favour opposition parties. However, I would not underestimate Conservative support in Quebec. We saw the CPC get 10 seats in 2006, and the conservative ADQ rise from irrelevance and obscurity to large official opposition in the Quebec National Assembly. Too close to call. But it will be a Liberal-BQ race, I think.
	07 08 08	Beatle Bailey Buster 69.157.168.235
Beatle Bailey must be the National Director of the Conservative Party. He predicts, in just about every single by-election race that the CPC will win. What a load of C-R-A-P. Outremont will stay Liberal with Mulcair running a respectable 2nd. The Conservatives will come in 4th. Yes FOURTH Mr. Bailey. They are so far out of it that no one takes them seriously.
	07 08 08	GFW 70.55.61.205
Seems to me that our Conservative friend is a wee bit deluded. The ADQ received roughly 2,000 votes in provincial Outremont during the 2007 Quebec election. Daniel Fournier won almost twice that in the 2006 Federal. If our friend thinks the ADQ ‘surge’ in Quebec is supposed to translate into a CPC win in federal Outremont, then he should go back to school and learn how to count. And I disagree with our Liberal friend who said that federalists will only back a party that's going to win - what a lame-o excuse that is. I'm a federalist and have not voted Liberal in the past nor am I tempted to do so now. Besides, what is the point of voting if someone is already ‘going to win’? You might as well vote in a king for life! The Libs are bombing in Quebec, and Dion has not been able to rally the troops well enough. Reality check folks: With Lapierre out of the picture, the Libs have only 12/75 seats in Quebec. This is a huge come-down from 1980 when they took 74/75. Why should federalists back a party that will one day wash out completely in Quebec? And as for the NDP, who can say? If Mulcair is still acting like the arrogant Pelquiste he once was, this may turn off a number of NDP voters in the Plateau section of the riding. Let's hope not, as his election may see for the first time in far too many decades that the citizens of this riding will have an MP who is going to represent them to Ottawa, and not the other way around. Likewise, there is potential here for the Greens, though it would be nice if they got their act together and learned how to wage a real campaign, rather than acting like a bunch of rebellious little turds with a collective attitude problem. All told, this is going to be one kerrrrazy campaign!
	07 07 31	DL 38.99.136.242
Note to ?Beetle Bailey?. I wouldn't get too excited about the ADQ's showing in the Quebec election being a harbinger of a CPC surge in Outremont. There are two provincial ridings that largely make up the federal riding of Outremont - Mercier - where the ADQ came in a distant FIFTH behind the PQ, Quebec Solidaire, Liberals and the Green Party (in that order) and Outremont, where the ADQ came in FIFTH behind the Liberals, PQ, Greens and Quebec Solidaire (in that order). The ADQ has shown no strength at all in Montreal and least of all among the bohemian francophones and anglophone and allophone types who live in Outremont. The Tory might take a small number of ultra conservative Hassidic Jewish votes away from the Liberals and help the ND scoot up the middle and that is about it. Apparently the whole riding is already plastered with Mulcair signs and the Liberals still have no HQ and no presence at all. I'm sure they will start to campaign at some point, but i have a feeling that the Liberals may freak out very soon because they have no clear message in the context of this byelection on why anyone should vote Liberal and not NDP. People like Layton way more than Dion and people the NDP position on withdrawal from Afghanistan is way more popular than the Liberal/Tory/BQ policy of extending Canada's combat role by two more years.
	07 07 30	M. Lunn 74.99.130.109
For all those making other predictions, I'll explain why the Liberals will hold this. NDP: Thomas Mulclair is a strong candidate and this is the NDP's best hope at a Quebec breakthrough, but in Quebec, federalist parties are largely ignored if they have no shot at forming government. Quebecers ignored the Tories until it looked like they had a shot at winning the election and so until the NDP can pull ahead or at least even with the Liberals and Tories, they won't win any seats in Quebec. Bloc Quebecois: They only came as close as they did due to adscam and with adscam behind us, if the Bloc Quebecois couldn't take this in the last two elections, they certainly won't take it now. Tories: They have a strong candidate for sure, but with only 12% last time around and generally lower in the polls in Quebec, never mind the centre-left leanings of this riding, they will get clobbered once again.
	07 07 29	binriso 156.34.225.173
Outremont is only 44.8% francophone, the rest are Anglo/Allophone which clearly benefits the NDP and Liberals. Dion may be unpopular with francophones, but not nearly as much on the island as the rest of Quebec. Remember, the ADQ got nowhere close anywhere on the island last election and only polled 15%(although they were pretty close in Laval in a couple ridings.) The CPC/PC haven?t got higher than 12% in this riding since 88 and i cannot see them winning. Despite the controversy around Coulon, he will still win.
	07 07 29	Beetle Bailey 129.100.240.37
On election night this by-election will shock the country. First of all, Dion is disliked big-time with the francophone vote. Second, the liberals candidate has offended already the Jewish vote. Thirdly, the Quebec electorate is very unpredictable. Finally, the ADQ in Quebec in the final days of the campaign were supposedly losing support from the pollsters, pundits and the elite in the media, but on election night this was the exact opposite. The end result, the CPC will benefit from all 4 reasons, and will likely win by 1-2% over the NDP, and the LIBERALS and the BLOCK will be fighting for third.
	07 07 27	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 67.71.59.236
We're going to toss in our two cents worth on the upcoming Outremont byelection. There is much ado about M. Duguay and his work in foreign affairs and his diplomatic work. This is very impressive to the political science geeks who frequent this site, however it does not resonate at all with the average Jean-Guy Labatt who'd be voting in this byelection. Don't put too much credit into his star candidacy, we (the lowly scientist that make politics a hobby, that we are) had never heard of this guy before his nomination. It'll be the same for most voters. In fact the only one of the three star candidates that we have heard of prior to this byelection call was Mulclair (thanks to his provincial cabinet position). Coulon is known in French media, which makes him more familiar to the average francophone voter. BQ...forget it! If they could not take it in 2006, when the Liberals were at absolute bottom in the polls in Quebec and was running a despised (by many francophone voters) candidate, then they have no chance now. Bottom line, we think the byelection will be won by the Liberals. They've improved in the polls since 2006 (no where to go but up), they already have a lock on most of the non-francophone vote and they have a candidate that is at least somewhat familiar to the average francophone voter. We will admit that Mulclair may give them a serious run for their money and if he's lucky may take the byelection. We'd like to see that, but we seriously don't think that'd happen. If it did, come the general election, the riding would fall from the NDP's grasp and would become another historical curiosity much like the last (and only) NDP win, back in the day.
	07 07 26	The Jackal 69.158.20.218
Sorry Dippers this will go Liberal. The NDP has been pretty much a fringe party here and that won't change any time soon. The CPC and the Bloc will both have a good run here but this will go Liberal
	07 07 25	David M. 67.174.220.152
**This post refers to the 2007 byelection.** This one is going to be close. As I see it, there are six variables that will determine the result: 1. The strength of the CPC campaign. 2. How much the Bloc's support drops. 3. The Mulcair effect. 4. The extent to which Coulon loses Jews. 5. The francophone vote. 6. Turnout: who shows up, the strength of the GOTV. First, the CPC has a veritable star in Duguay, but they don't have the support of the organisation to bring it home for him. This said, in Outremont, the better the CPC does, the worse the LPC does. Two Rhodes scholars in succession for the CPC in Outremont is pretty remarkable, and Duguay should be a better candidate than Fournier (older, much more genial), moreover, the CPC is doing much better in Montreal in 2007 than they were in 2006, with the 'nation', fiscal imbalance, and now Saint-Jean military college issues nicely managed. In this context, and with the CPC pouring everything they've got into the riding, the smart money is on Duguay to do well. This augers badly for Coulon, and to a far lesser extent, the generic Bloc candidate. 2. The biggest threat for the Bloc candidate isn't Mulcair, it's apathy. All across the province, tradition Bloc voters are kicking tires, getting a sense of what else is out there, and in Outremont, doubly so. In effect, the LPC/Bloc polarisation has led to artificially high results for both parties, and with the NDP and the CPC newly revitalised, we're going to see lower results for both. This said, the Bloc is likely to see the biggest drop - the 2006 score was rooted in anti-LPC rather than separatist sentiment; the candidate was more well known; Lapierre was a particularly polarising figure; it was a general rather than a by-election; school was in session; and the Bloc, its politics and its leader were all riding far higher in popularity. It was, to some extent, a perfect alignment for the separatist party to maximize its voteshare, and it did precisely this. This time around, however, none of these factors are present: Mulcair and Duguay offer good alternatives to the LPC; the Bloc candidate is generic, its leader and politics far less popular; school's out, etc. The Bloc could well sink to third or fourth depending on who comes out to vote. 3. Mulcair is genuinely popular with a broad array of people, he's attracted a lot of very positive earned media, and he's got a lot of support coming his way from the NPD. Seriously, dippers (including MPs) are coming from all over the country to help out on this campaign, and the leader is sparing no expense - expect full phone banking, canvassing, etc. operations from the NDP, for once. It feels like make-or-break for him and for the dippers, and they're going to do everything they can to steal this one from the LPC. Expect NDP gains to come at the expense of the Bloc more than the LPC. 4. B'nai Brith is raking Coulon over the coals about his past writings on Israel and while most expect this to harm his chances here, the force of the impact remains unclear. My sense is that some people will stay home, some will vote CPC and some with vote LPC anyway, and that this shouldn't be a significant determinant in the election. This said, in a tight race, this could be important variable. 5. While older, long time Outremont voters will always vote Liberal, in general, francophones are less likely than ever to vote LPC. Where do they go? With the Bloc at its nadir in popularity, expect the CPC and Mulcair to benefit. 6. As with all by-elections, the key is turnout. All of the parties will be throwing everything they can at winning this one, so it comes down to organisational strength and the air war. On the first, the LPC has an undeniable advantage: they own this riding and they can draw upon a deep well of Montreal backup support. The Bloc also has significant organisation, and the Mulcair effect will alleviate some of the NDP issues. The Montreal CPCers, while likely to work hard for a win here, can't match these efforts. As for the air war, here's where it gets complicated. While the LPC has a commanding advantage in natural support, and the Bloc has a good hard core from which to draw, the last several months or media (paid and earned) may have loosened things up. On the one hand, Harper's Quebec publicity campaign and the Quebec media have really ground Dion into dust and Coulon's writings will continue to be an issue in the Jewish community (however unfair this is!). On the other hand, the Bloc has endured months of 'crisis' stories, the most interesting of which surrounded Duceppe's humiliating foray into Quebec provincial politics. In this environment, Mulcair and Layton, and to a lesser extent, Duguay, have a golden opportunity to break through. These are the key variables, and my prediction is that Duguay's campaign will siphon away enough support for Mulcair to take it. My guess is that the distribution looks something like this: NDP ~29% LPC ~28% BLOC ~21% CPC ~21% OTHER ~1
	07 07 12	Hatman 192.197.82.153
An Environics poll in the paper today indicated that Jack Layton was the most popular leader on the Island of Montreal. If the NDP plays its cards right, they can win this with Thomas Mulcair, who is their star candidate. The NDP has a history of performing better in by-elections than they do in general elections, and they will be putting all of their resources into Outremont. It's hard to say whether or not this riding will actually go NDP, but I think the political climate is changing in Quebec- or atleast in Montreal for the NDP.
	07 07 06	binriso 156.34.225.149
Dont count out the Bloc here yet though, even though they’re polling lower than 06. A federalist split between the 3 other parties could push them over the top with a squeaker of a win with a really low%(26,27% or so something a little less than 06). Greens will get a few % and there is no doubt that a few fringe candidates will run from minor parties, splitting the vote up even further. 11 candidates ran in Outremont in 06(!). That said i still expect a Liberal win here with a comfortable ~3000 vote cushion or something like 10% higher than 2nd.
	07 06 25	M.C. 24.122.220.230
Thomas Mulcair, tout comme M. Lauzon en 2006, n'a aucune chance dans Outremont, que ce soit dans une ?lection g?n?rale ou dans une ?lection compl?mentaire! Ce comt? a toujours ?t? un bastion lib?ral sauf entre 1988 et 1993, ?poque o? Outremont a ?lu un d?put? du Parti Progressiste-Conservateur, parti qui a maintenant disparu!!! En clair, Mulcair et Layton ont pr?f?r? pi?tiner leurs propres principes pour s'acopiner avec les conservateurs d'extr?me-droite dans tous les dossiers (Imputabilit? s?lective, Kyoto, mission en Afghanistan, et j'en passe!). Victoire lib?rale dans Outremont sans ?quivoque!!!
	07 06 22	Suavebarman 74.56.85.176
Mulcair announced yesterday that he's going to run for the byelection here. The people of OUtremont are open to the NDP and will vote for them when they understand that one of their candidates are electable. Moreover, Mulcair and the NDP are on the right side of every debate, as far as this riding is concerned. Mulcair wins elections. The conservatives don't have much of a chance with Mayor Tremblay's brother Marcel: 1) tremblay is not popular anymore; 2)Marcel hasn't any real campaign experience; 3)the conservatives haven't done well here for awhile; 4)The tories' ideology is at odds with the ethos of the riding. The Bloc are running Jean-Paul Gilson: no dummy, but not very well-known and certainly not as strong a candidate as Jacques Léonard of the last campaign. The Grits are just not as strong in Québec as they used to be and will have a really hard time convincing people that they are worth voting for. We'll see: Garneau or Unterberg will have to win it for them. Other wise I see this riding stolen by the dippers.
	07 06 21	Porter 198.103.172.9
This will be the one to watch in the upcoming 2007 byelections with the possibility of a three or four way race. The NDP and CPC have both nominated high profile candidates (Thomas Mulcair -former provincial cabinet minister and Marcel Trembley - brother of the Montreal mayor). The LPC and BQ have yet to nominate candidates, but both will be scrambling for strong ones or each will see their numbers go down as Outremont residents will have more dynamic choice than the two traditional viable options in the riding. The Liberals are looking for Dion to appoint a female and his wife Janine Krieber was at one point rumoured by insiders to be set up for the nod, but this has since been disavowed. This one could potentially be an upset!
	07 06 21	JN 24.37.78.2
Thomas Mulcair will work hard to win this riding, he will create the most buzz. the only hope that the liberals have of stealing the spotlight is to pull some cheap gimmick like trying to run Justin Trudeau. Marcel Tremblay will be a strong candidate and the bloc are running a very smart man, but Mulcair has the wind at his back. Who are the libs going to choose Unterberger? Garneau? If they choose Garneau, the gaffes of the 2006 camapign will resurface. I'm feeling confidant that Mulcair will carry this one.
	07 06 18	70.55.114.8
En 2006, Léo-Paul Lauzon avait fait un score honorable de 20% et en terminant troisième. Cette année, je crois que ce sera la bonne. Sans compter que Dion est de plus en plus impopulaire, perd quasiment du terrain au Québec au profit du NPD qui est maintenant troisième chez les francophones. Dion pourrait sans doute conserver quelques forteresses libérales, mais pas Outremont. Elle est loin d'être une forteresse sûre pour les libéraux (elle a déjà été conservatrice) et Jean Lapierre a eu chaud en 2006 contre le bloquiste Jacques Léonard. De plus, le NPD pourrait bien faire une percée au Québec et Outremont sera le permier compté libéral à passer au NPD. Que ce soit le prof Lauzon qui s'y représente ou Thomas Mulcair, l'un ou l'autre deviendra député d'Outremont.
	07 06 08	binriso 156.34.226.75
The stars could align for the NDP with Muclair in a by-election that i assume must be coming up soon, but i really dont see the Liberals losing here. They'll no doubt put up a star candidate to run and most likely hold on with an increased margin of victory.
	07 05 18	DL 38.99.136.242
People make the mistake of thinking that because the name of this riding is ‘Outremont’ that means that the riding is made up of the Quebecois upper class. Quite the contrary. Only about a third of the riding is the City of Outremont and only a relatively small part of Outremont even has particularly big houses - most of it is very middle class. What Outremont does include is a large chunk of the Plateau area that is in the provincial riding of Mercier (which was almost won by Quebec Solidaire) as well as large chunks of very working class and multicultural Snowdon as well as their area around the University of Montreal - in other words a riding that is demographically tailor made for an NDP breakthrough. Let's face it, the BQ has become a sad joke and when their vote drops, in a riding like Outremont most of it will go NDP. The Conservatives are likely to do a bit better here than in the last election and whatever they gain will come out of the Liberals' hide. The NDP has never run a candidate here with the credibility of a Thomas Mulcair or other rumoured names like Julius Grey and in a byelection, the possibilities would be limitless. All that being said, the Liberals would probably throw everything but the kitchen sink into holding this seat in a byelection since if they lost it under Dion - it would be a total humiliation for him. Should be interesting.
	07 05 11	Incisive Logic 193.171.32.117
NDP in Outremont? The fact that someone would make an NDP prediction in Outremont just dilutes the credibility of every other NDP prediction on this website! Similar outrageous predictions were made on the 2004 and 2006 pages, but the NDP never came close. There is no need to get excited that the NDP won less than half as many votes as Lapierre last election. Spin the information and misinformation all you want, but it won't change the fact that the NDP has ZERO chance of winning here. This riding is home to many high-income francophone families, and the NDP does not even register with most of them. The only reason that the Liberals did as poorly here as they did was because Jean Lapierre is despised amongst many Quebec Liberals, and socially progressive federalists voted NDP in protest of the candidate. The Liberals would win votes back from the NDP if they ran a red mailbox next time. I doubt the NDP will even be able to hold their meager 7,000 votes, let alone pick up enough for a miraculous upset. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if they placed fourth next time, since the Conservatives actually have a presence in Quebec now. I know the NDP managed to win one seat in Quebec in a wacky by-election during its glory years under Ed Broadbent, but they have NEVER won any other seat in Quebec. The Liberals will hold Outremont by an increased margin, and the NDP might come third again if they are lucky.
	07 05 07	R.D. 12.4.238.25
A recent CROP poll shows the BQ has fallen to record low support in Quebec, 28%, with the Conservatives trailing closely at 26%, the Liberals at 22% and the NDP at 15%. While still in fourth, the NDP has shown the most gain of any of the four federalist parties, doubling its vote from the 2006 election. If these numbers hold out, the NDP could pick up a significant swing from the Bloc to surpass weak Liberal margins in Outremont and Hull-Aylmer, which gave the NDP its #1 and #3 best results 2006. The NDP's #2 result was Laurier--Sainte-Marie, which appears solidly BQ, although of course things could change there too if Gilles Duceppe leaves to seek the provincial PQ leadership. Given the lack of a Liberal incumbent, Outremont is probably the NDP's best hope with a star candidate like Thomas Mulcair. As prospects for a spring election fade, this seat appears more likely to be filled in a byelection rather than a general election, which could help the NDP by giving it a chance to concentrate its resources, but would also clearly give the other parties an opportunity to focus on the riding as well.
	07 04 20	DL 38.99.136.242
Highly respected former Quebec Liberal Environment Minister Thomas Mulcair is running for the NDP and if (as seems likely) there is a byelection in Outremont in the near future, he will run there. The BQ is in free-fall and a lot of their support would probably shift to the NDP in a byelection situation. The Liberals have nominated a nobody to succeed Lapierre and Dion is making no impact at all in Quebec. I expect the Conservatives to also gain ground from the Liberals - though nowhere near enough to actually win.
	07 04 05	Brian Appel 64.230.127.250
I was initially going to leave this riding alone, but I think that it's safe to say that, regardless of who the Bloc and Conservatives pick, this riding is going to stay Liberal. At one time, not too long ago, this riding was the second safest Liberal riding in Quebec. I don't predict a landslide win, but this riding is staying Liberal for a while yet.
	07 03 29	M. Lunn 74.99.130.109
Jean Lapierre didn't do particularly well last time around, but 2006 was essentially the absolute worse the Liberals could do in Quebec, so I think it is pretty safe to say they will hold the ridings they won last time around. The question is how many can they re-gain. They should re-gain some, but the exact number is still wide open.