08 02 11	A.S. 99.233.96.153
Boy, that second place must have been heartening to Jack Layton; together with Duceppe's own political roots, it's tempting to conclude that anywhere else, a seat like this would be up in the Libby Davies NDP stratosphere or something. (At the other extreme, this seat saw a curious flurry of CPC predictions two EPPs ago...and it all led to something like the worst Conservative result in the *country*.)
	07 09 21	binriso 156.34.212.190
With the by-election expect an increase in NDP support, maybe upwards to 25%. Bloc still win though and Duceppe will get about 55%.
	07 09 19	Nick J Boragina 74.13.125.185
If Duceppe resigns, then this riding might go NDP. However there are no signs he’s even thinking about it at this point. So long as Duceppe is the Bloc candidate, leader or not, he will keep winning this riding. Remember, Duceppe is a former communist. This might be the most left-wing riding in the country, but with arguably the most left-wing MP in the country representing it at this time, the NDP will find it hard to do anything but increase their margin over third. Maybe in a few years I’ll be back here predicting the NDP will take this riding from some novice BQ candidate, but in the next election, they don’t stand a chance. Mulcair changes the dynamic here a bit, before him, this riding would have elected that rookie BQ candidate.
	07 07 14	binriso 156.34.227.92
Surprisingly, the Liberals won this riding in 1988 by like 4000 votes ~10-15% or so. Not that it matters now Laurier will be going BQ in the next couple elections at least, almost no matter what happens short of Duceppe resigning, which could open it up for a possible although not a very probable NDP or Liberal win. CPC wont ever touch this, seeing how they finished behind the Greens last time and couldnt win it with Mulroney as PM. In fact the PC/CPC have finished 5th or lower the last 3 elections Canadian Alliance in 2000 finished 7th(!). A 3rd place for the CPC would be an accomplishment here. Anyways its a safe BQ hold as long as Duceppe is here and probably even after he retires, unless a chain of major events occur which destroys the BQ. We can always hope.....lol
	07 06 04	R.D. 12.4.238.25
Well, Duceppe's fifteen minute campaign for the PQ leadership wasn't exactly the highlight of his career, but it won't cost him his job at the helm of the BQ and it certainly won't cost him this seat. I expect the NDP to build on its strong second place in the last election, but a ?victory? now will be simply to hold the Bloc vote under 50%. Things are changing elsewhere in Quebec, though...
	07 05 07	R.D. 12.4.238.25
A recent CROP poll shows the BQ has fallen to record low support in Quebec, 28%, with the Conservatives trailing closely at 26%, the Liberals at 22% and the NDP at 15%. While still in fourth, the NDP has shown the most gain of any of the four federalist parties, doubling its vote from the 2006 election. Laurier--Sainte-Marie appears in all respects to be a solid BQ seat. But if it was to go to any other party, the NDP was in fact the runner up here last time as well as the natural second choice for working class urban BQ swing voters, if they are in fact abandoning the separatist cause. I doubt BQ leader Gilles Duceppe would ever find himself in danger of losing the seat. But it is looking more and more like he may be leaving Parliament within the next few months to contest the provincial PQ leadership, and if that happens, all bets are off.
	07 04 12	Brian Appel 64.230.124.52
Quebec Solidaire didn't get the big vote in the last provincial - Amir Khadir did. If they'd run a nobody in Mercier, then the QS would have been in last place, or close to it. Anyway, Laurier-Sainte Marie is a very francophone riding that is the home of the Plateau and the Montreal Gay Village - lots of students, artists and other progressives who pound the sovereignty drum on principle. Duceppe is extremely well-respected here and not many would vote against him. If Duceppe were gone, the Bloc would nominate another left-wing activist who'd easily win here. And if the Bloc were gone, given the political climate in Quebec nowadays, it would go NDP. Easy, easy Bloc hold.
	07 04 03	P.P. 70.82.50.99
Although this is a sure win for the Bloc, the NDP should be trying to get a strong candidate. In the Mercier riding (which covers a lot of this riding), Quebec Solidaire finished a close second to the P.Q.
	07 03 29	M. Lunn 74.99.130.109
Gilles Duceppe or no Gilles Duceppe, this is a very safe BQ riding and it will go BQ no matter what. Even if Gilles Duceppe does go provincial, it won't affect this riding, although it could hurt the BQ elsewhere since he is still reasonably popular compared to any other prospective separatist leader.
	07 03 26	Smok Wawelski 69.159.68.252
Gilles Duceppe's seat. If he runs, no more needs to be said. Even if he doesn't this riding leans left and nationalist.
	07 03 25	G. Kennedy (not that one) 65.95.110.153
The very fact that the NDP was able to run second last time is indication of what a stranglehold Duceppe has on this seat.