10 01 15	Pierre 24.202.238.232
Il va sans dire que Mulcair aura pas mal d'appuis de la part des bloquistes. Egalement, la candidature haute-gamme de M. Cauchon ansi qu'un autre represantant Conservateur 'non-name' devrais mettre ce comte dans la colonne Liberal la prochaine fois. Tant pis pour Thomas Mulcair et ses aspirations de leadership au federal.
	09 11 14	E.D. 65.93.164.102
I completely disagree with David Y's assessment of Outremont. Comparing a Windsor match-up between Herb Gray and Brian Masse is apples and oranges. Herb Gray is well into his 70's now and would never stage a comeback. What the people of Outremont has a choice between two men that stand a good chance of becoming their respective party leaders in the future. Cauchon stands a strong chance of becoming a powerful cabinet minister (again) or even PM, while Mulclair would serve as the leader of the 4th place party in Ottawa. When voter's head to poll, they are going to choose the man that has the greater chance of influence for them. It will be close, but I see Cauchon pulling out a victory by at least 1,500 votes. The general campaigns will have very little do do with this race, it will come down to a battle of the titans- all politics is local in Outremont between these two men.
	09 10 31	David Y. 96.30.160.146
It is amusing to read the submissions from those who think that this seat would automatically go back to one political party because a certain individual from that riding's history returns as a candidate. Is there anyone who believes that if Herb Gray had contested his Windsor riding again in 2004 that he would have beaten Brian Masse? I don't think so! Mulcair will hold this seat, though it will be a tight contest!
	09 10 21	JEB 70.82.30.39
Dr Bear is partially right in his comment but he misses the fact that the Bloc's benefecial support came in the 2007 by-election (22,000 voters). In the 2008 general election (37,000 voters), Mulcair's majority shrunk in half, and that's against Liberal (Verdun resident)no-name Dhavernas. Cauchon has 2000 votes to pick up in order to get back his seat in Ottawa. With the whole riding association, his own personal support team and the media around this one, it should be a relatively easy Liberal pick-up. Oups, I forget to mention how Jack Layton is helping Mulcair by backing the Conservatives as well....
	09 10 04	Gone Fishing 64.231.145.16
While NDP fortunes in Quebec are not great I think Mulcair is the kind of guy people will make an extra effort to come out and vote for. The Liberal problems in Quebec may well go away but than again this riding could be the sign that people really are taking their undying support for the Liberals and placing it elsewhere. The NDP will do everything possible to win here, it might be the home of their next leader as someone else noted here. The NDPs best shot at gains anywhere in the near future is to present itself in Quebec as an alternative to the Liberals and chip away slowly at Bloc support to win the odd riding like they did here in the by-election.
	09 10 02	Anon 129.173.167.75
Last time around a candidate with zero backing from the federal party, who campaigned for only three weeks, cut Mulcair's margin from 21% to 7%. The Liberals are polling consistently higher in Quebec than during the 08 election, Cauchon is an incomparably stronger opponent than Dhavernas, and having failed to win a single other seat in Quebec for Layton, Mulcair will have far fewer resources. Cauchon will wipe the floor with him.
	09 09 26	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 70.51.253.209
WOAH! Hold on everyone! Before we all start predicting this going to the Liberals without much difficulty, remember that Mulcair was supported by BQ voters who'd rather an NDPer over a Liberal. They may be the king-makers once again. This will be a very interesting riding to watch. With regards to this fiasco being Iggy's and Coderre's downfall, don't bet the farm on it. It will be long forgotten whenever there is an election. That is, unless this doesn't become a new, and very public, display of Liberal infighting.
	09 09 26	Smok Wawelski 69.159.68.41
How quickly things change! A few days ago, with Cauchon seemingly pushed out of the way by Quebec Bullyboy Denis Coderre, I had written the riding off, and called it for Mulcair. So, here we are and Cauchon has won the power struggle, and will run in Outremont. Now the shoe is on the other foot, and Mulcair is in trouble again. I believe that Cauchon will win Outremont, and quite easily. he'll have to work for it, but he'll win with a 5000 vote plurality. As for LeProhon in Jeanne Leber, hard to say. I think it'll be close since that had been a traditionally liberal riding until Frulla lost it in '06. St Cyr increased his plurality last time, so Le prohon did not land a plum, though it is not out of reach. the real losers in this are the Iggy/Coderre tandem. Coderre overplayed his hand, and Iggy showed egregious lack of judgment. Both could be casualties. Iggy should dismiss Coderre right away as his Quebec Lieutenant and start sucking up BIG TIME to cauchon, who, despite the assertions of several Toronto Liberal Kingmakers. will probably be the next Liberal leader, and NOT Dalton McGuinty. Unless Iggy ditches Coderre, and fast, his days are indeed numbered.
	09 09 26	Marco Ricci 72.138.2.68
I think it would be good to wait until the nomination is actually decided before reaching conclusions as to who the nominee will be. As it turns out, some people jumped the gun this week in assuming what would happen, and now Michael Ignatieff has reversed his decision and will allow Martin Cauchon to run for the Liberal nomination here afterall. That changes things once again and that is why it is too soon to know who will prevail for sure.
	09 09 25	Nick J Boragina 198.96.35.219
Even more fun over here. Cauchon is in, Cauchon is out. Now he's in it appears, and will be running against Mulcair. This is the Liberal's riding to lose, and this little mess up might help in that, but regardless, it remains just that - the Liberals riding to lose. At this rate, they are set to do just that.
	09 09 25	Isa06 76.71.178.246
How things change in 24 hours...Cauchon will get his nomination against any challenger, increase visibility of the Party in the riding, and take it from Mulcair, when ever Jack figures out that losing his NDP seat in QC is actually better for his leadership than keeping it...
	09 09 26	brent Thorkelson 89.27.101.80
Iggy has flipflopped, no forced nomination. Cauchon will run in Outremont, and whatshername high flying executive woman will probably settle for Jean-Le-ber. Both will be elected, I mean come on these were razor thin defeats in the last election, that was a perfect storm nadir for the Liberals in Montreal, they will certainly gain from that disaster and any perceptible gain puts both of these in the win column. Yes it all looks like a big mess of intraliberal backstabbing right now but thanks to the NDP the election will be far enough away that this will all be forgotten. Mulclair is a cool guy and it will be a pity to see him go, but like many NDP mps he is elected by a protest vote, and that can only hold together so long. The Irony is if the election were underway this would be a live grenade down the pants type event that would get Mulclair elected but Jack hat to go and cost his side kick his job. oh well...
	09 09 25	Daniel 99.240.148.225
One has to wonder about the advice that Mr. Ignatieff is taking. This is a test of Coderre's power in the party. If his hand-picked candidate loses, it will be on his head and Ignatieff will suffer for having listened to him. Cauchon was the smart choice and had a much better chance of reclaiming this former liberal bastion in the heart of Montreal from the NDP, but since the current leadership decided to bring in a nobody, at the expense of the choice of the constituency members, I am confident that Mulcair will retain this seat. Ignatieff is a complete fool for listening to Coderre and should know better given Coderre's obvious interest in the party leadership.
	09 09 23	Philip Yu 76.66.121.25
For all that the Coderre/Cauchon feud's worth, the fate of this seat is pretty much in the hands of the Outremont electorate now. I do know that both the Liberal and NDP campaigns will have plenty of resources devoted to the riding, but whether Mulcair will get the numbers he wants without fail or Liberal supporters will suspend their disbelief and hold firm is beyond me. Nevertheless, it's definitely a gamble on the parts of Michael Ignatieff and Denis Coderre...they'll make out like bandits if the Liberals manage to retake the seat, but on the other hand, losing again to Mulcair could prove fatal.
	09 09 22	Paul Tremblay 67.159.44.138
Well the identity of the Liberal candidate is now known and the riding is reserved for Nathalie Le Prohon, a so-called ?star candidate? who is so unknown outside of her family that she has been described in a Canadian Press article as ?someone few Liberals know anything about?. An unnamed influential Liberal strategist had this to say about this decision in today's La Presse : ?C'est clairement une grave erreur d'?carter Martin Cauchon. Au Qu?bec, on n'a pas le luxe d'exclure un ancien ministre qui a si?g? au cabinet pendant presque 10 ans. On a besoin de gens qui ont de l'envergure. Et qu'on ne me serve pas l'argument du renouveau. ? ce compte-l?, Denis Coderre est largement disqualifi?.? Seems like Denis Coderre is too busy rejecting candidates who could be a threat to his own influence in the Liberal Party to care about maintaining the unity of his party. The NDP will keep Outremont.
	09 09 22	Smok Wawelski 69.159.68.41
Would you believe that Iggy has just handed outremont over to the Dippers on a silver platter? It is now official that he has knuckled under to political correctness, or Denis Coderre or both, by telling Martin Cauchon that he is persona non-grata in any nomination process for Outremont, because (as Svend Robinson might have put it) ‘It's time we had a woman run’. Peel the onion back, and you will find that Coderre probably advised Iggy that Cauchon wants to be national leader and wants to come back now in order to facilitate that. Could it be that Coderre, believing that the next Lib convention will elect a Quebecois as leader as tradition would have it, and he was merely trying to neutralize a possible competitor? Nevertheless, they have probably just thrown Outremont away. It is a unbelievably shabby and cavalier attitude to treat the loyal party members. As for the whole idea of having a female candidate, the issue should be decided by the membership of the EDA, not party brass. It should not be about identity, but about quality and what the members decide... what a novel idea!
	09 09 21	Poll Junkie 24.64.223.204
With Ignatieff's astonishing decision today to rebuff Cauchon's attempt to seek the nomination and appoint a Coderre protegée, the Libs have basically handed this seat to Mulcair for a 3rd time. Mulcair's strong profile and media-savvy persona and the focus of all NDP organizational efforts in Montreal to keeping his seat (the NDP other priority seat will be Gatineau and the Ottawa-area NDP gang will support that riding) already gave the NDP a good chance at this riding. Cauchon's public humiliation by Coderre and Iggy will ensure low turnout among the core Grit vote and some ‘ballot box slippage’ to Mulcair from Lib voters who are justifiably furious at the betrayal of the democratic process (Iggy is apppointing his candidate and there will not even be a nomination meeting!) Iggy has made many bad decisions since becoming Lib leader, but this is among his worst moves.
	09 09 20	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 76.64.121.61
This may be premature but... The Liberals (and Iggy in particular) have denied former Outremont MP Martin Cauchon a run at the nomination for this riding. This is just the controversy that lately has been losing ridings for the Liberals. Mulcair is very popular and he will keep it now that his main rival party will be embroiled in controversy.
	09 09 20	Nick J Boragina 99.234.48.43
There have been some changes since my earlier projection. For one the Liberals have gone from polling at 37% province wide to 27% province wide. At this point in time (at 27% for the Liberals) this riding would go NDP, but it remains to be seen just how strong or weak the Liberal campaign will be. The NDP can lose the riding, but they can’t win it, the Liberals can do either. At this point in time, the Liberals are losing Outremont.
	09 09 17	DL 173.32.33.208
The Liberals in Outremont are now in total disarray. Denis Coderre is imposing some corporate hack as Liberal candidate and doesn't care what the local Liberals think. Its the Jocelyn Coulon situation all over again. Mulcair would have been favoured anyways, but now that its clear that the Liberals are engaged in fratricidal civil war and that the candidate they will get stuck with sounds like a real nobody - Mulcair is the happiest man in town.
	09 09 11	Marco Ricci 72.138.2.68
The recent polls from Strategic Counsel and Ekos this week have the NDP down to around 10% in Quebec, so it's hard to know what polls to believe right now as there appears to be some voter volatility going on. It also may take a few weeks to get a better grip on this riding because the Liberals have not yet announced their candidate. They apparently have a star candidate ready to go according to recent articles, but are waiting until the election begins to announce him. The Liberals can take back this riding if they get better numbers in Quebec under Ignatieff than Dion, and depending on whether they have chosen the right candidate (who is still a surprise).
	09 09 11	A.S. 99.232.162.133
Bear in mind that it's conceivable that Mulcair could survive ?unfavourable? provincial NPD numbers much as all but one sitting Quebec Tory survived ?unfavourable? provincial CPC numbers last time--it's where the Tories *weren't* sitting that CPC experienced the bulk of its Quebec losses. (Speaking of Tories, Outremont was another seat where a sizable Orthodox Jewish population + an inconvenient election date led to weirdly skewed advance/special-poll results: over twice the final 10.5% result + one poll won.)
	09 09 10	Stevo 99.251.76.167
Nick Boragina - for all the gloating bravado of your show of numbers, your argument remains wholly unconvincing. First off, considering the desperate straights the Liberals were in throughout non-Montreal Quebec, it isn't surprising that Iggy has managed to raise overall support - after all, they couldn't have gotten much worse. We don't know the breakdown of that 30% (and some polls show the Libs much lower in Quebec than that) and cannot assume that the bulk of the increase comes from already Liberal-friendly Montreal whose previous two leaders were themselves Montrealers. Secondly, you cannot pick and choose convenient examples. Why not mention Honore-Mercier, Hochelaga, or Papineau, all of which saw the Liberal vote rise in 2008? Or virtually every other Montreal riding where the Liberal vote was virtually static from its 2006 totals? The Montreal numbers in 2006 were almost identical to those in 2008. What changed? The candidacy of Thomas Mulcair! I believe he will withstand even a moderate improvement in Liberal fortunes. Even the ridings you cited are problematic to your argument. Mount Royal and Westmount, like Eglinton-Lawrence or York Centre, probably would have gradually declined for the Liberals anyway, relatively speaking, regardless of the party's performance overall. After all, you can't remain ?the safest Liberal seat in the country? forever, and the demographics are slowly working against the Liberals (though not by enough to defeat them). In addition, Outrement's somewhat higher Liberal vote in 2004 would've been skewed by the star candidacy of Jean Lapierre (oh! did you forget about him already?). Lastly, you forget that Bloc voters in downtown Montreal are more socialist than sovereignist, and would often consider their party allegiance interchangeable with the NDP. It is Bloc voters - not Liberals - who guaranteed Mulcair his victory, and they are not as easily, or naively, romanced by Iggy's platitudes as the more traditional Lib voters on the island. Nice try, but your numbers almost reinforce the opinion that Outrement will remain safely NDP barring a dramatic and unforeseen turnaround.
	09 09 10	Nick J Boragina 76.64.192.16
(Please note the prediction is conditional on the below) To add to my earlier post about numbers, a recent poll shows the NDP at 17% in Montreal. If they truly are at 17%, they'd take Outremont with ease, despite the Liberal resurgence. At this time, however, I doubt they are at 17% in Montreal. They are still averaging 9% province wide. 28% of all Quebec voters are in Montreal. If the NDP is at 17% in Montreal, then they are at 6% in the rest of the province combined. I will continue to post updates with regards to numbers here. As I've said previously, unless something changes, the NDP will not win. A solid 17% on the Island of Montreal is just such a change that could result in them holding the riding.
	09 09 08	Nick J Boragina 76.64.191.140
?I don't think you can use Liberal weakness as an excuse for Mulcair's success because, quite frankly, I don't think the Liberals were particularly weak in West or downtown Montreal in 2008? That sounds like a challenge. Alright, lets take a look at the numbers! Lets note that the Liberals have been consistently polling near 30% in the province, a level they've not been at since 2004. Lets go riding by riding starting right here in Outremont, looking at the Liberal % of pop vote. 2008 - 33.1% 2007 - 29.0% (by-election) 2006 - 35.2% 2004 - 40.9% In Westmount 2008 - 46.5% 2006 - 45.7% 2004 - 55.8% Over in Mount Royal... 2008 - 55.7% 2006 - 65.6% 2004 - 75.7% Heck, lets see how the Leader of the Opposition did in 2008 compared to a liberal member (both Mr.Dion) in 2006 and 2004. 2008 - 61.7% 2006 - 59.9% 2004 - 66.8% You also asked ?why would Outrement residents prefer another invisible Montreal Liberal MP instead of the man who may very likely succeed Jack Layton as NDP leader??. This question can be applied to any number of high-profile losing candidates in the past number of decades, including but not limited to former Prime Ministers (Kim Campbell comes to mind) I dont mean to be mean or anything, but the numbers on this one are pretty clear. Feel free to check the past predictions for this riding too, I was one of the first people to project an NDP win, and one of the most ardent. Frankly, it is as simple as this: either the Liberals need to drop in the polls in the province, or the NDP needs to raise from their current average of 9%-10%. If the NDP can manage to get back to their 2008 level of support in the province, this riding might be close, but it would still have a Liberal edge.
	09 09 07	Stevo 99.251.76.167
I don't think you can use Liberal weakness as an excuse for Mulcair's success because, quite frankly, I don't think the Liberals were particularly weak in West or downtown Montreal in 2008. In this area, like very few others across Canada, the Liberals held their own. I believe Mulcair won on his own merits and I can't see Iggy's platform impressing Mulcair's supports any more than Dion's did. And besides, why would Outrement residents prefer another invisible Montreal Liberal MP instead of the man who may very likely succeed Jack Layton as NDP leader? The Liberal tradition here stops me from making a firm NDP prediction, but I do believe Mulcair has this effectively sewn up. Je crois que c'est probable que M. Mulcair maintienne son niveau de soutien ici et gagne - en tant que chef possible de l'NPD apres que M. Layton decidera de quitter, son valeur en tant que representant de cette circonscription est supérieur de celle d'un député Libéral invisible.
	09 09 06	Observer 89.180.225.54
Tom Mulcair is running as frontrunner because for the first time since 1990, the leader of the federal Liberal Party is not from Québec and this will have an impact on the party's fortunes in the province. After Chrétien, Martin and Dion, Liberals have elected an Ontarian federal leader frustrating the Québec wing of the party which is thought to be the most powerful.
	09 09 06	Observer 89.180.225.54
Tom Mulcair is running as frontrunner because for the first time since 1990, the leader of the federal Liberal Party is not from Québec and this will have an impact on the party's fortunes in the province. After Chrétien, Martin and Dion, Liberals have elected an Ontarian federal leader frustrating the Québec wing of the party which is thought to be the most powerful.
	09 09 01	Paul Tremblay 67.159.44.51
Unless I missed something the Liberal Party has yet to announce their candidate for Outremont... It is said that Martin Cauchon is considering a comeback. Sebastien Dhavernas is also said to want to run again. Both certainly see themselves as great candidates but it is far from certain that voters agree with that. Cauchon especially may not realize that he won three elections not because of himself but because he was the Liberal candidate at a time where the Liberal Party could count on the vote of almost every federalist voter in the riding. Times have changed and if Cauchon or Dhavernas is the Liberal candidate, I would expect Mulcair to be re-elected narrowly. If the Liberals somehow manage to find a really good candidate I would then expect them to win this seat. At this point the race is still too close to call.
	09 09 01	Nick J Boragina 74.14.107.105
The NDP won last time, partly, due to Liberal weakness. The Liberals are strong in Quebec again, with some polls having them tied for first. The NDP will no longer be up against a Liberal Party that has a very unpopular leader, this time they face the full wrath of the Liberals in all their grittitude (is that even a word? doubtful, but that's exactly what's coming) The Liberals should be able to take this riding back even against the harshest of NDP defenses.
	09 09 01	binriso 156.34.209.15
The most important seat for the NDP to keep in Canada (other than maybe Edmonton-Strathcona). Muclair should win it but a Liberal victory is not out of the question since they’ll probably win 20 seats in Quebec next election and be strong in Montreal.
	09 08 31	MF 70.52.182.217
I expect Mulcair to hang on. While the Liberals are up in the polls in Quebec (usually in the low 30s), the NDP is polling quite well in Quebec as well (around 17-18% according to CROP polls).
	09 08 26	Smok Wawelski 69.159.78.163
I think it will go Liberal. Mulcair's best chance is if he replaces Jack Layton as leader. All it will take, now that Dion is gone, is a strong Lib candidate, and it's back in the Grit column.
	09 08 24	a.L. 24.215.111.194
Liberals win. Mulcair won this on an anti-Dion low Liberal turnout. The Liberals will have a star, and Coderre and Trudeau will bring this back into the red column
	09 08 24	Observer 89.180.69.237
I am not pretty sure this is going NDP because even the Liberal debacle in 2008 didn't hurt too much the Liberal candidate and he was leading the riding for a long period during the election night. Anyway, Tom Mulcair is the NDP star in Québec and I cannot see the party losing its sole MP in Québec.