Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Vancouver South


Prediction Changed
2015-08-11 18:49:12
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Boylan, Charles

Gupta, Raj

Ng, Elain

Nijjar, Amandeep

Sajjan, Harjit S.

Young, Wai


Population/populations
(2011 census)

100966


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

1557142.43%
773321.07%
1239033.76%
8102.21%
Other 2020.55%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Vancouver South
   (141/148 polls, 95.60% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Wai Young
15039
7007
12148
782
Other177


   Vancouver Kingsway
   (7/148 polls, 4.40% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Don Davies
532
726
242
28
Other25



 


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15 10 15 Conservative Pundit
108.180.146.110
An Insights West poll conducted on October 10 with 301 adult residents of Vancouver South shows support as follows: 28% Liberal, 24% Conservative, 14% NDP, 6% Green but the kicker is 27% undecided. Because of how close Liberal and Conservative support and the huge numbers of undecided I say TCTC on this one.
15 10 13 BC predictor
162.156.138.98
The 2011 CPC vote here likely includes far more former liberal voters than seats like south surrey and Delta. With the LPC up in polls and the CPC down its seats like those on the north shore and vancouver proper where we'll see the swing. LPC win around 40% of the vote
15 10 08 R.O.
24.146.23.226
It surprises me there hasn't been any recent riding polls done by pollsters or media for this riding . its just seems like one of the more interesting ridings in bc and hasn't got as much attention this election. It was a surprise to many when the conservatives won a metro Vancouver riding in 2011 and Wai Young has been mp for 4 years now. I'm not really sure how much of an advantage her being the incumbent is in this riding. As bc politics tends to be somewhat volatile and unpredictable. Wai Young did well here in both 2008 and 2011 elections when looking thru past results. The riding does have a lot of liberal history though so if there doing better it is a riding they are likely to see improvements in.
15 10 06 A.S.
99.233.125.239
The first Con seat within Vancouver boundaries since 1993--though in some ways it may be because it's the most 'Lower Mainland-esque' of Vancouver seats (sort of like Steeles-hugging 416 seats that might as well be spillover from Vaughan or Markham). Even Wai Young's loose-lipped Jesus-ism is of a piece with that aspect--but she'd have a better chance of being re-elected were this *actually* a Lower Mainland seat; at this stage of the campaign, being within Vancouver city limits only fuels the vulnerability to hometownish-boy Justin (and at *this* stage, as opposed to a month or two ago, it's pretty clearly the Grits on their own in pole position, and the NDP back to their old strong-sideshow par at best)
15 09 24 Milo
96.55.205.110
It appears traditional Liberal support in this riding has returned with a bang with the arrival of Harjit Sajjan, the first Sikh to command a Canadian military regiment, doing 3 tours of duty for Canadian Armed Forces, and a decade as Vancouver Police, this cerebral candidate fits perfectly with the riding.
15 09 12 Adeline96
99.224.160.247
Wai Young has not been impressive in the 41st Parliament, and has in fact been more harmful to the Conservative brand than a young, female, visible minority Tory MP should be. This riding will return to the Liberal fold.
15 08 27 Bruce MacDonald
174.6.212.247
This is one of the riding being targeted by Leadnow for strategic voting. It's all pure guesswork at this stage anyway, but it seems to me the ABC voters, plus IndoCanadian voters, plus moderate Chinese voters who are embarrassed by Ms Young, might just add up to a Liberal win.
15 08 27 Bruce MacDonald
174.6.212.247
This is one of the riding being targeted by Leadnow for strategic voting. It's all pure guesswork at this stage anyway, but it seems to me the ABC voters, plus IndoCanadian voters, plus moderate Chinese voters who are embarrassed by Ms Young, might just add up to a Liberal win.
15 08 23 Marco Ricci
99.241.63.7
I think it's too soon to predict a Liberal win here. The Conservatives are down, but they aren't necessarily out of the race. There have also been some numbers indicating that the NDP is competitive here, as reported in a riding poll posted down below earlier this Summer.
15 08 24 BC predictor
162.156.138.98
The type of seat the CPC can win when they're in Majority country but that's not how this election is trending. LPC Win
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
24.139.3.217
Conservative MP Wai Young has found herself in a recent controversy by literally comparing the Conservatives to Jesus because of their 'tough on crime' bills and the C-51 'spy bill'. She also made unflattering comments regarding CSIS and the Air India bombing, only to retract from her statement after being called out on it. This is going to come back to bite her. This is going to offend a lot of people and the Liberals have been polling high enough in this riding to take it.
15 08 02 R.O.
24.146.23.226
This had been a reasonably safe liberal riding for a number of years until Wai Young managed to win it in 2011 for the conservatives. Ujjal Dosanjh isn't back for the liberals and I'm not sure how that affects the race here. The problem for the liberals as ndp seems to have more momentum in bc and that puts the liberals in tough races in some of these ridings. So conservatives may have somewhat of an advantage here but maybe too close to call until campaign shapes up.
15 07 31 Matthew
139.173.54.11
I think this will be a relatively easy Liberal pickup. The Liberals are much stronger this election, particularly within Vancouver. This riding is one of their top targets. The Conservatives would really have to turn around poor polling numbers to retain this one. Liberal pickup, #CPCJesus loss.
15 07 29 Monkey Cheese
99.242.205.221
Wai Young's incredibly stupid 'bozo eruption' about comparing the Conservatives to Jesus and offensive comments about the Air India bombing should be enough for her to lose, if the polling numbers didn't already indicate it. The Liberals should have no problems winning here.
15 07 15 Jack Cox
24.212.227.58
After Wai Young's incredibly stupid comments comparing Bill C-51 to Jesus, this may be the iceberg that sinks the re-election titanic, also a poll came out showing the Liberals ahead in this riding by a 27-21 margin.
15 07 15 Expat
67.193.243.209
A Vancouver South riding poll released a few days ago showed that the Conservatives were already in third place before the bozo eruptions from the incumbent MP about Jesus, C-51 and CSIS having advance knowledge of the Air India bombing.
A traditional Lib vs Con seat, but both are on the decline in BC and the NDP are in a surprising 2nd place here (and by only a few points) for this riding. Very much TCTC at this stage that could go any of 3 ways.
Poll reference: https://dogwoodinitiative.org/media-centre/files/insights-west-polling-july?mkt_tok=3RkMMJWWfF9wsRonvazBZKXonjHpfsX56uskW6OylMI%2F0ER3fOvrPUfGjI4ARcRnI%2BSLDwEYGJlv6SgFTbfBMbNo1bgPWRk%3D
15 06 20 Bob
75.156.74.70
Harrjit Sajjan should easily win this riding for the Liberals, seeing as how this is a naturally Liberal-leaning constituency and the Conservative incumbent is an absolutely no-name back-bencher.
15 04 01 BJ
206.116.245.42
The City of Vancouver is unique in BC in that a good portion of voters are CPC/LPC vote switchers as well as NDP/LPC vote switchers. Same could be reasonably said, to a lesser extent, for the inner suburbs surrounding the City of Vancouver.
The City of Vancouver is also the Liberal base or core vote in BC. Always has been such. In 2008, under Dion, the Liberal vote in BC began to recede to 19% from previous election averages of 25%+. That resulted in the CPC blue tide beginning to enter the City of Vancouver. With the Liberal vote collapsing to 13% in 2011, that CPC blue tide increased in the City of Vancouver allowing the CPC to take Vancouver South.
With a major surge of the Liberal vote in BC occurring, that Liberal vote is likely to return to pre-2008 levels in BC, especially in the City of Vancouver, resulting in major Liberal popular vote share gain here.
With that preface, the Liberals lost Vancouver South by a roughly 8% margin in 2011 - the first Liberal loss in this seat since 1993. As it is obvious that the Liberal vote will increase in BC, especially the City of Vancouver, said Liberal popular vote share increase will concurrently occur in Vancouver South as well. Liberal regain.
15 03 29 RoJo
50.67.15.0
Like Richmond Centre, this riding has a heavy concentration of Chinese voters, who are increasingly voting CPC. In municipal elections, this area of the city has consistently voted for the more right-wing candidate, despite the eventual mayor being from Vision Vancouver (Gregor Robertson, who previously represented the NDP in the provincial legislature). This shows that voters in the Southeast of Vancouver will vote for the more right-wing party even if the eventual winner of the election is more left-wing.
In recent provincial elections, too, Vancouver-Fraserview has consistently gone to the more right-wing BC Liberals (as opposed to the NDP).
With the current trends, even if the CPC and LPC were tied nationally, I predict that Vancouver South will go to the CPC. The Chinese community has been increasingly choosing the CPC as their home base party and if the CPC continues to appeal to ethnic communities, this riding will become, like Richmond Centre, a Conservative stronghold.
15 03 29 monkey
174.114.31.13
If the Tories win any seats in Vancouver proper, it will be this one but despite voting NPA municipally and BC Liberals provincially, that doesn't mean it will vote Tory federally. Both parties include many Blue Liberals who find the federal Tories too extreme. The big question is how well the NDP will do as usually they get around 25% here so if they get that then the Tories have a chance at exploiting the splits, but if they fall back to the teens, I expect the Liberals to retake this.
15 03 26 Carleton Student
70.26.27.187
This will be a very tight CPC-LPC race, but for the LPC to win, they need strong strategic voting. I'll predict MP Young is re-elected
15 03 25 JJ
50.67.15.0
South Vancouver doesn't typically vote like other centre-left areas of Vancouver (i.e. Kitsilano, West End, Fairview, East side). In voting trends, the electors here are more concerned about 'bread and butter' issues like lower taxes, crime, and economy. We saw that when the BC Liberals retained this seat despite losing other Vancouver seats, and the NPA won this area despite losing the race for Council and Major.
Wai Young has been quite active as an MP and I often see her covered in the ethnic media. Getting funding for the seniors centre will help her in this riding. The CPC focus on tax cuts, tougher sentences, trade will also resonate.
Plus, a previous poster suggested they think the CPC's anti-marijuana stance will hurt them here. In a riding that is almost 50% Chinese, and probably 70% immigrant, marijuana is generally frowned upon in these communities. Trudeau's pro-legalization stance won't help the Liberals here.
15 03 25 Fairview Resident
24.87.28.82
While the Liberals collapsed to 13.4% in BC in 2011, Dosanjh's vote total decreased by less than 500 votes from 2008, while Wai Young only added 3,400 votes to her 2008 total. Since then, Young hasn't been a particularly strong MP. She is best known for having received government contracts from Citizenship and Immigration Canada after her 2008 unsuccessful attempt to win the riding, and for sending flyers to her constituents with a picture of a boy smoking pot to scare them from voting for Trudeau. The Liberals have now nominated a decorated veteran to run against her. With the Liberals in contention for first place in BC, they can build on the solid base that they maintained in 2011 to easily win back this riding.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
76.11.94.51
Straight-up #LibCon race to keep out the #GreeNDP socialist hordes from the frozen North (and Centre, and Granville)? Looks like it. I'd call it Con but Harper has lost popularity in coastal and urban BC since 2011 with most residents far more concerned about oil spills affecting jobs, property and of course about climate and rising sea levels. I tend to think the Liberals can take this with Harjit Singh Sajjan, Former Commander of The British Columbia Regiment (Duke of Connaught's Own), First Sikh to command a Canadian Regiment. Veterans are campaigning hard against Harper and it appears some of the most prestigious are Liberals.
However, it's hard to overcome a fat Con lead and election rigging on the scale we saw on 2011 (remember, 'Michael Sona did not act alone,' said the judge, and his boss Jenni Byrne is running the Con campaign again in 2015) so I'm going to ask instead:
Instead of calling one winner, please let us rank the likely finish order and let us call ties. So in this case 1. Lib 1. Con 3. NDP 4. Green etc.



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