Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Burnaby South

Prediction Changed
2015-03-22 18:51:31

Constituency Profile


Jaluague, Liz

Pankratz, Adam

Seear, Grace

Stewart, Kennedy

Tessari, Wyatt

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 3861.06%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Burnaby-New Westminster
   (94/181 polls, 54.52% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Peter Julian

   (87/181 polls, 45.48% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Kennedy Stewart


Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

15 10 14 Neil Fernyhough
It's true that a lot of Liberal lawn signs have gone up in this riding. So have a lot of NDP ones. What I don't see, this time around, are many Conservative ones. And given that they were the main threat to the NDP in the last election in Burnaby Douglas; I'm inclined to think that it is the Conservative support that will bleed to the Liberals, rather than that of the NDP. As someone else mentioned, this is Burnaby, and the NDP-affiliated mayor and city council were just re-elected by a crushing margin. I'm inclined to see this as an NDP hold.
15 10 07 A.S.
Given the overall polls as well as Bill Siksay's past struggles w/strong Liberal challenges, I'd eye this Stewart vs Pankratz circumstance carefully--more so than if the prime challenge were from the Cons.
15 09 20 Milo
Originally thought of as an easy NDP win as well liked as well educated MP Kennedy Stewart moved south from Burnaby-Douglas, a shocking swell of support has appeared for Liberal candidate Adam Pankratz, a local resident and commercial banker. The consensus is that a large number of previously conservative voters are throwing their lot behind the Liberals here, as a seemingly centre/ centre right alternative to the NDP. The conservative candidate is not a threat and not known- giving Adam Pankratz all kinds of momentum. When I see all the liberal signs here it signals previous conservative voters attempting to stop the New Democrats. However... This is a Mayor Corrigan town, a 30 year run of fully left wing BCA municipal dominance and a riding with an 'Eliminate Harper' mantra. While the Liberals will surprise, The NDP will prevail.
15 03 29 monkey
I wouldn't call this for the NDP quite yet as the Liberals are up in BC and while its a long shot of them winning a lot depends on which party their votes come mainly from. Even though the Tories will likely lose votes, if the Liberals take more from the NDP than the Tories, the Tories could win this. Now if centre-left voters vote strategically the NDP should hold this unless come election day its unclear which party is most likely to keep them out.
15 03 22 BJ
Wayyyyyyy to early to call this riding. Esp. with a marginal 4.5% NDP win back in 2011. Back in 2011, the federal Liberals collapsed in BC. Completely different political dynamics heading into 2015, however, with the federal Liberals majorly rebounding in BC.
When that happens, the federal Liberal core vote is heavily concentrated in the City of Vancouver and the surrounding municipalities of Richmond, Burnaby, and the North Shore. That matter has also been corroborated by a Huffington Post article from a few days ago:
'The Liberals' internal numbers also show strong support in three ridings along the north shore of Vancouver, as well as in the Surrey and Burnaby ridings where Mulcair is travelling this week.'
The federal Liberals will certainly increase their popular vote share in Burnaby South at the expense of both the CPC and the NDP in 2015. The key question is from which party the fed Liberals will draw more support from.
And then we have the elephant in the room - the Greens. While the Greens only took 4% or so in 2011, the Greens could easily take 15%+ here in 2015. Why? The proposed Kinder Morgan pipeline twinning and increase in tanker traffic is an emotional issue in Burnaby. The Greens have staked out their position on same as a clear 'NO', while federal NDP leader Mulcair remains non-committal and is 'wishy-washy' on the topic. Look for the Greens to drain former NDP votes in 2015.
Looks like a close-3 way fight that either the NDP, Liberals, or CPC could win. Too close to call right now.
15 03 22 Brian A
Try as they might, the Conservatives couldn't take Burnaby Douglas away from Svend Robinson, even in 93 and 00 when the NDP tanked nationwide. And when Svend stole a ring and had a breakdown, Burnaby forgave him and kept the orange fire burning. Redistribution hasn't hurt the seat any, and Kennedy is doing okay for himself I've heard. Provincially, Burnaby is firmly in the hands of the Corrigans. NDP hold.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
A Conservative-NDP race that the NDP should win on the numbers. Especially if the other parties realize that redistribution has so focused this race that they should swap out to elect Greens and Liberals somewhere else.

Navigate to Canada 2015 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2015
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Justice Quest Communications, 1999-2015 - Email Webmaster