Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-05-01 09:04:00

Constituency Profile


Dahlby, Lewis Clarke

Gidora, George

Leung, Ronald

Low, Ken

Merlo, Adrianne

Sproule, Brian

Stewart, Kennedy

Bill Siksay

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • burnaby-douglas (182/215 Polls)
  • vancouver-south-burnaby (19/203 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 30 Seth
    Leung is toast. He was a no-show at all five English language all candidates' debates in the riding. He promised to come to the one yesterday, but ducked out at the last minute; instead forwarding a prepared statement that explained nothing about why he was absent. Stewart landslide.
    11 04 30 Stevo
    This is no longer Svend Robinson's Burnaby-Douglas of the 90s.
    This riding saw close 3-way races in 2000, 2004, and 2006. In 2008, it broke off into more of a two-way race between the CPC and the NDP, with the Liberals further behind. The long-term prospects here are bright for the CPC but bleak for the NDP.
    That said, the peculiar dynamics of the 2011 campaign ensures that it stays NDP for at least one more cycle.
    11 04 25 Austin Gatensbury
    I think Harper made a strategic mistake in attending a Christian fundamentalist church. After all religious controversy in his campaign, he should have thought about how voters would react in Burnaby Douglas. This is a very secular riding with a university and a history of being socially liberal. This is going to help the NDP collect all the votes of people who are worried about extreme religious groups influencing a Harper majority government.
    11 04 23 From the Left Coast
    One of they very rare places where Tory will gain from the NDP.
    There is the power of incumbency which the NDP does not have but the Tory via their repeat candidate has.
    >From 2006 to 2008, the NDP held the same, while the LIB vote moved to the Tory. The LIb vote is already at the bear bottom core, don't think much more votes can be shaken out. But from the link below, I think the Tory vote will be able to pull this riding off. CON-gain
    11 04 23 Teddy Boragina
    This riding has changed too much for history to be an indicator of NDP success. What does indicate such, is the jump in the polls for the party in BC. Without it, the NDP would lose this seat, but seeing as it does seem to be a slow-steady rise for the NDP, they'll probably manage to elect another MP here, at least, this time.
    11 04 23 Boy Waffle
    I just read that ‘Ronald Leung (Conservative, Burnaby-Douglas) is avoiding media interviews and cited a 'doorknocking appointment' as a reason to skip an all-candidates' meeting’ on the CBC website (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/inside-politics-blog/2011/04/all-candidate-no-shows-stop-me-if-youve-heard-this-one-before.html), and I can't help thinking that doesn't sound very positive.
    To be fair, the local paper the CBC links to says that this was also his strategy last time around (http://www.bclocalnews.com/greater_vancouver/burnabynewsleader/news/120365934.html),
    and it did bring him within a thousand votes then, so who knows?
    11 04 20 Victor Finberg
    This riding won’t be a pushover, but the NDP has the best chance to win in Burnaby-Douglas. First of all, the NDP has held the riding for more than 25 years. This indicates strong and ongoing support for the NDP in this riding. Related to this is the fact that Svend Robinson and Bill Siksay, the MPs during that time period, are widely recognized to have done a great deal for their constituents. This recognition may not be transferred to Kennedy Stewart, the current NDP candidate, but there is no reason to expect that it would harm him. Second, there is a significant anti-Conservative sentiment in Canada. In Burnaby-Douglas, any strategic anti-Conservative votes can be expected to go to the NDP. Third, there was a very strong anti-HST movement in BC. It isn’t clear how strong it is now, but, considering that both the federal Conservatives and federal Liberals supported the HST, and the NDP opposed it, any anti-HST feeling will help the NDP. Finally, and this is a big unknown, there seems to be a large amount of political organizing going on among young voters. Most of this is invisible to standard measurements; it will become obvious only when the votes are counted. However, it is known that this demographic tends to support the Liberals and NDP, and again, in Burnaby-Douglas, that can only favour the NDP.
    11 04 18 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Provisionally calling this NDP. Poll numbers have the CPC down a fair amount, Liberals up a lot and the NDP more or less unchanged in BC. Would suspect that would give us numbers akin to '06 where this was a three-way race.
    11 04 14 binriso
    Well I dont think in the end the Conservatives will do as well in BC this time. The NDP are reviving nationally and should be able to hold their BC seats once the election is over. Not to mention they do have a great campaigner here.
    11 04 13 someoneelse
    Cycling through North Burnaby on my way to work every day I see surprisingly few NDP signs. There are lots of conservative signs and more liberal signs than I was expecting given that there's no expectation that the liberal candidate will make a dent in anything.
    Furthermore, this is a riding where the little post-second world war bungalows are steadily getting torn down and replaced by big homes. There are half a dozen of these at various stages within a few blocks of my house, comparably many elsewhere, and the pace has been pretty consistent once the worst of the downturn passed by. I strongly suspect a correlation between house size and colour of vote.
    I expect it will be very close, but I think the conservatives may pull it off.
    11 04 12 J.Mc.
    While it was pretty close last time, given this riding's left-wing history, it would be a pretty big jump from Robinson and Siskay to a Tory (however, I don't know enough about the Liberal candidate to tell whether or not he could split the centre-left vote...). So, I predict another narrow NDP hold.
    11 04 12 Marco Ricci
    'Ken Low is running again for the Liberals'
    Actually, this is the first time Ken Low has run, but it will be interesting to see whether he can take away votes from the Conservatives. It will also be interesting to see whether Kennedy Stewart can run the same strong campaign here that he ran against Hedy Fry in Vancouver Centre in 2004. As has been pointed out, Stewart was the strongest candidate so far against Hedy Fry, so if he can replicate in Burnaby-Douglas what he did in Van Centre, he may be able to win here.
    11 04 10 burlivespipe
    Last election's close result was not due as much from an upswing in Con support as it was of the Liberal collapse -- the Chinese-Canadian votes tend to bleed centre-right and not centre-left (except in special cases, usually because of star candidates). Ken Low is running again for the Liberals and while I am not going out on a limb to say he'll win, I do believe his result will be much better. That will cut into Mr. Leung's vote and keep this NdP.
    11 04 10 ExVancouverite
    If the NDP had chosen a weaker candidate to replace Bill Siksay, I'd've projected a loss for them, but Kennedy Stewart is a very strong candidate, so I think this is safe seat. When Svend Robinson resigned in disgrace, people wondered whether Bill would hold the riding for the NDP or whether their hold was due to Svend's profile. Bill proved that the NDP can hold it even with a candidate without the same name recognition, and I think Kennedy will keep up the trend.
    Moreover a big part of why that riding has stayed NDP for so long is that Svend and Bill both distinguished themselves as outstanding constituency politicians. I think a lot of voters in Burnaby Douglass appreciate having an MP that really makes an effort for them rather than just rehashing party talking points.
    Finally, nationally, Jack Layton's reputation as a leader continues to improve, and the NDP are generally held in high esteem as an opposition party, so there isn't the same baggage to sticking with the NDP as there is to parking a vote with either the Cons or the Libs.
    11 04 07 Social Democrat
    Bill Siksay may have been an incumbent, but he focused on issues that weren't bread and butter issues... like transgendered rights. I applaud him for that! But it doesn't really speak to the everyday issues of the people of Burnaby-Douglas. I acutally think he held back the NDP vote.
    Kennedy Stewart should win this riding with ease. When he ran back in 2004 against Hedy Fry, he came the closest to knocking her off... much better than ‘star candidates’ in other elections.
    NDP win.
    11 04 05 M. Lunn
    With Bill Siksay not seeking re-election and considering how close it was last time, this will definitely be a close NDP-Conservative match up. However, the NDP has chosen Kennedy Stewart who is a strong candidate and may just hold this. Another unknown is this riding has a large Chinese population who have traditionally voted Liberal, but in the last few years the Tories have made strong inroads amongst this group so although the Liberals have no chance at winning here depending on whether a large chunk of this group sticks with the Liberals or switches to the Tories could make a difference. In the 2005 provincial election I campaigned for Richard Lee and I can say first hand without are strong outreach to the Chinese community we would have not held Burnaby North which is in this riding. This definitely put us over the top in a riding few thought the BC Liberals had much chance at holding, so this community could make a big difference in terms of getting them out and how they vote.
    11 04 04 SDW
    Given that the polling indicates that Canadians are on track to elect a majority government, Burnaby Douglas won't remain with the NDP.
    Bill Siksay only won with by less than 800 votes last time and Bill Siksay is not running this time.
    Ronald Leung is the Conservative that almost defeated Bill and should have enough support to win this time.
    11 04 04 bd-npd
    Burnaby-Douglas has been a NDP riding for many elections now - with the recent elections though the winning vote spread has gotten smaller but the 2nd place party hasn't been consistent. Not many signs are up in B-D yet so it's hard to judge if the polls are leaning a different way.
    11 04 03 jeff316
    The Conservatives will squeak this one out. They've been doing a lot of local building and the timing of this election is fortuitous. The decision of the NDP MP to not run again coincides very well with local and national trends and will help the Conservative just make it in, this time.
    11 03 27 Social Democrat
    Stewart will win. He has experience running as a candidate when he ran against Hedy Fry in 2004. Out of all the big name candidates to run against Fry from all parties, Stewart came the closest to knocking her off. That should say something about Stewart the candidate. He's a great fit for Burnaby-Douglas and will be a great MP.
    11 03 26 Anonymous
    In 2008 this was a close race between Siksay and Leung, and the latest opinion polls show the vote distribution in BC closely matching the 2008 results. Based on this, it would probably be a close race again; but Siksay isn't running.
    While I personally think that Stewart is a better candidate than Siksay, the fact that he isn't an incumbent and doesn't have the strong tie to Robinson is inevitably going to put him behind where Siksay would be.
    Right now I'd call this a Conservative win by 5-10% over the NDP, with the Liberal candidate trailing well behind. The only scenario I can see this not happening is if Low and Leung split the ‘ethnic’ vote -- in 2008, Leung benefited from being the only candidate with a Chinese connection -- but immigrant voters tend to be sticky, so I expect most of them will stay with Leung.
    11 03 26 SDW
    As the provincial election demonstrated, Burnaby Douglas can't be considered to be an automatic NDP win. The Conservative candidate came close last federal election and is running against two new candidates for the NDP and Liberals.
    11 02 07
    I am quite sure the Conservatives are running Ronald Leung again. He is a former Chinese-language radio host who has deep connections to the ethnic communities. Also, he ran last-time so he will have greater name recognition here. The NDP usually do well in BC, but polls have been showing that their vote has collapsed somewhat. Without the incumbency factor of Bill Siksay, the Conservatives stand a strong chance here. The Liberals are running Ken Low, a former candidate who jumped here from Vancouver East. Given the Liberals' weakness in BC and his lack of name recognition, I give the edge to the Tories.
    10 12 21 R.O.
    Bill Siksay just came out and said he wasn't going to run again, don't know if that was considered a surprise or not as i do not follow ndp politics in bc that much . the riding has always been competitive with conservatives and liberals usually running a close second behind ndp who always found a way to pull out a win of 2%. even without an incumbent i'd give the ndp a slight advantage here as they still remain strong in bc . also liberals are going to run new candidate and conservatives don't have one yet . but interest may increase in the nominations so its hard to say who will run here. the overall race remains too unclear to come up with a solid prediction . but its likely riding attracts alot more attention than usual.
    09 10 08 PY
    Whoa there...I have to disagree with you to the extent to which the Conservatives have been able to get their message through. While there are those who think locally, there are still others who think beyond their borders thanks to Fairchild and Talentvision as well as the usual slew of available Chinese-language newspapers, so don't tell me that they're not keen on China as a whole, and this is across all generations.
    As for the acceptance of the CPC/NDP arrangement and the unwillingness to have an election, I would also argue that not everyone shares your view; there's a certain level of uneasiness about Harper and Layton that's not explicitly expressed, but it is there...whether it'll compel people to act against those two at the polling station is another thing entirely, but I doubt that they'll consider sitting this next election out, as I'm sure they've realized what little good it ultimately did, despite what current polls may suggest.
    09 09 15
    PY, your logic is all over the place.
    First, Conservative Ronald Leung may run again. If he does, it will neutralize the ?Chinese candidate? factor as Ronald Leung is much better known in the community than Ken Low is (Leung is an experienced political activist, former Chinese-language radio commentator, and he actually lives in Burnaby).
    Second, Conservative support within the Chinese community is still strong. In 2008, a large portion of Chinese voters supported the Conservatives EVEN BEFORE Harper began to warm relations with China. Now that cabinet ministers have gone to China (Stockwell Day even visited the worst-hit earthquake zone in Sichuan) and Stephen Harper will go (probably in November?) the Chinese voters will reward the Conservatives. Even Rahim Jaffer was saying recently how the Conservatives are ?excited about China? (from MacLeans website). And that will definitely help Ronald Leung.
    Third, you assume that all Chinese people have ties to China. Well, many
    don't. There are Hong Kong Chinese, Taiwanese Chinese, Canadian-born Chinese, Singaporean Chinese, etc. who don't necessarily place Canada's relationship with China on the top of their priority list.
    Fifth, you assume Chinese people only vote for who sucks up to China the best. Here's a headline for ya: Chinese people also base their votes on issues like taxes, law-and-order, family, etc. The Conservatives are perceived as strong on these issues. ?China? is not the only issue.
    Sixth, the NDP supporting the Conservatives doesn't hurt the support of either party; rather voters will reward them for preventing Michael Ignatieff's very unpopular idea of having a fall election (over 70% of Canadian oppose having an election). On that note, Ignatieff's poll ratings have also plummeted to Dion levels in some aspects.
    09 09 14 PY
    According to the Pundits' Guide website, Ken Low, who last ran in Vancouver East, is giving it a shot here this time.
    First of all, I believe that any support and goodwill that the Conservatives received from the Chinese community has been squandered, even as Harper tries to salvage our relationship with China. This could represent an excellent opportunity for those who stayed at home during the last election to punish the government and prospective Conservative candidate at the ballot box.
    It's also becoming increasingly apparent that Jack Layton is trying to honour his father at the worst time possible by trying to keep the Harper government alive for a little while longer and I'm not sure how well that'll sit with some voters.
    Then again, can Ken Low finally do what Bill Cunningham couldn't? We shall see.
    09 09 08 Stevo
    Is it just me or does MF submit virtually the exact same comment in every single swing-ish seat, both here and in the 2008 EP go-round? That the Conservatives have 'maxed out', are 'losing ground', are 'almost certain' to do more poorly next time around. I don't even have to read the comment - as soon I see 'MF', I have a pretty good idea what it's going to say.
    Anyway - the close result in what was previously safe NDP territory was an eye-opener, and I don't think it can be dismissed as a one-time fluke. The large Asian population here largely has no conflict with Conservative ideas, and the thawed relationship between the Harper government and China should help. The Conservatives seem to have crept closer and closer to downtown Vancouver, such that it seems only Hedy Fry, of all people, could still be considered completely safe. Still a likely NDP hold for Burnacy-Douglas, but what if Siksay's numbers don't rise, and Iggy disappoints?
    09 09 01 MF
    The Conservatives had their chance and missed...and even if they had taken it, it would be just about their most vulnerable seat. Bill Siksay actually saw his percentage of the vote increase, but the Liberal vote collapsed with most of it going Tory. The Tories are almost certainly likely to lose ground in BC and the Liberals really have nowhere to go but up. I'm giving the edge to the NDP.
    09 08 31 Scotialist
    This riding's been NDP since 1997 of time and I don't think that will change next time around.
    09 08 30 wyatt
    After running a new face in '08, the Tories vaulted to second, gaining over 8.5%, and losing by less than 800. They will target this riding, devote the right resources and steal it from the NDP. This is especially likely if they can convince the electorate that an MP in the governing benches might actually get something done for their community.
    09 08 23 Observer
    Too close to predict. Burnaby-Douglas is more and more conservative and less NDP. If the Conservatives choose a good candidate, this will be extremely close.
    11 04 28 Seth
    This is still TCTC? This riding has voted NDP for a quarter century; it was even one of the 9 seats that the NDP clung to in the 1993 election where they nearly lost everything. There's no way it's flipping now; not with the NDP with its best polling numbers ever.
    11 04 28 someoneelse
    According to the Burnaby Now, Leung has only been going to Chinese-language debates, not English ones -- he knows where his support is and is focusing on it. Stewart's been taking a translator to the Chinese debates.
    Yesterday's Burnaby Now was the first one that I noticed with decent coverage of Burnaby-Douglas, previous ones have been focusing on Burnaby-New West.

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