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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
12:51 PM 6/26/2004

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10:28 AM 6/23/2004

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Previous Submissions:

  • Mar 04
  • Apr 04

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    Frank Cerminara
    Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
    Bill Cunningham
    Adam Desaulniers
    George Drazenovic
    Hanne Gidora
    Green Party/Parti Vert:
    Shawn Hunsdale
    Bill Siksay

    Population 2001
    Number of electors 2000
    Nombre d'électeurs

    Incumbents/Les députés:
    Burnaby-Douglas (92.6%)
    Svend Robinson
    Vancouver South-Burnaby (7.4%)
    Hon. Herb Dhaliwal

    2000 Result/Résultats:
    15,417 35.81%
    14,390 33.42%
    10,639 24.71%
    2,333 5.42%
    273 0.63%

    (182/215 polls, 63583/73220 voters)
    2000 Prediction/Complete Results

    Vancouver South-Burnaby
    (19/203 polls, 5091/71410 voters)
    2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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    23/06/04 Aric Houlihan
    Email: arichoulihan@rogers.com
    I think the site's recent NDP prediction here is correct. The recent NDP polling for Burnaby-Douglas shows the following numbers:
    Bill Siksay (NDP) 43.2%
    George Drazenovic (Con) 30.6%
    Bill Cunningham (Lib) 16.2%
    Shawn Hunsdale (GN) 10.0%
    While it is an internal party poll, the NDP history here and the NDP candidate's long-term knowledge of the riding and 13 point lead in this poll point to him having a good chance of being Svend Robinson's heir. The Alliance came close to taking this riding in 2000, but the Conservatives don't seem to have the momentum here, and the appointed Liberal candidate obviously didn't work either.
    23/06/04 V.D.
    Email: bench_breaker@hotmail.com
    This is my neighbouring riding, and I spend a lot of time in it, but I still cannot tell who will win. It is a race between the NDP's Siksay and the Conservatives' Drazenovic, Cunningham will come in third like the liberal in 2000. I'd say maybe the NDP has the edge because most of the houses in North Burnaby (my area) that had svend signs, all have Siksay signs, but on the other hand, there are lots of Drazenovic signs as well on private property, which is something to note, because last election there was only 1 Alliance sign the entire election (on private property) in North Burnaby that I saw. Too close, and whoever wins it, it will not be by a huge margin (though I have not seen the sign war/mood in the southern part of the riding so I do not have the full view).
    22/06/04 Liu Bang
    Email: [hidden]
    The charges laid against Robinson earlier today will not change the outcome, other than perhaps to give Siksay and the NDP a bit of a sympathy boost. The people who were going to think Robinson a crook were already going to be in the anti-NDP column anyway. This will be an NDP hold.
    21/06/04 Distant Observer
    Email: [hidden]
    The NDP internal polling numbers released today suggest that this one should now be moved over to the NDP. Siskay at 43%, Conservatives at 30% and the Liberal "star" fading very fast at 16%. The pollster, Strategic Communications, was the only one to predict the NDP romp in the Hamilton Centre Ontario by-election (to the % no less). Time to make the call - NDP in a walk.
    20/06/04 kk
    Email: [hidden]
    Bill Siksay is riding well on Svend's coat-tails. The feeling is that the long time constituency worker will continue to serve the riding well. Cunningham's parachute is in tatters, particularly in view of the purported ethnic bias. Conservatives may be strong elsewhere, but not in the People's Republic of Burnaby.
    Quote one elector "I moved into this riding so that I could vote for Svend."
    15/06/04 Interested Voter
    Email: sealevel@telus.net
    Dream Team equals kiss of death for the Liberals in this riding. They'll finish a distant third on election day.
    15/06/04 Full Name
    Email: [hidden]
    1 + 1 doesn't always make 2. It is clear that the new Conservative party won't easily get the combined votes of the Alliance and PC last time. Anyone who is against the merge will probably vote for another party. And since Cunningham is not likely to get much support, the NDP is the best choice.
    14/06/04 Full Name
    Email: [hidden]
    CBC News Sunday did a profile of the riding last night and Siksay stood head and shoulders above the other two main candidates. This riding is going to stay NDP on the 28th.
    Driving around the riding also indicates that CPC and NDP are the main contenders in terms of the sign war. Liberal signs are far and few between.
    13/06/04 Stella Maris
    Email: [hidden]
    While the rest of the country will be considering change for the sake of change, Burnaby-Douglas will undoubtedly extend its NDP streak this election. The Liberal campaign is visibly lax, and Cunningham is not a particularly compelling candidate. Drazenovich signage dominates Burnaby heights, but most of the riding's voters are in left-leaning South Burnaby. The Svend Robinson ring debacle has damaged his image exponentially more than that of the NDP. Based on my survey of Burnaby, I'm giving this one to the NDP in a tight two-way race.
    09/06/04 Dave
    Email: [hidden]
    I'm not quite sure if DL is being sarcastic or honestly believes what he or she is saying. Not even Svend had a plurality of 10000 to 15000 votes. Siskay is also no Svend. Say what you want about Robinson's politics and outrageous antics, he was a good constituency man and had a certain something with the electorate in Burnaby. Siskay may have certain policy positions in common with Svend, but his name certainly doesn't resonate in the same way. This riding is still anybody's, even the Liberal. (Okay, maybe not the Liberal - it's between the Tory and the NDipper).
    02/06/04 DL
    Email: [hidden]
    This seat is so predictable it is almost tedious to have to put in a prediction. A slew of new polls again put the NDP at 28-29 or 30% in BC. This is TRIPLE what it was in 2000. The NDP candidate is basically another Svend Robinson - his executive assistant for the last 15 years. The Liberal and Conservative candidates are both Grade Z. The ony question is will Siksay win by 10,000 votes or by 15,000 votes.
    28/05/04 David
    Email: [hidden]
    Walking around the neighbourhood on Victoria Day, I noticed more lawn signs for the local Tory on private property. Most of the Grit signs were on public property - anyone can stick a sign there. Of course, the NDP had not yet picked their candidate, so the three-way race had not yet begun.
    What was most telling was that the Liberal campaign office was closed tight as a drum, while the Tory campaign office down the road was wide open and working hard. A serious candidate shouldn't be taking Victoria Day off while his opponents are hard at work.
    Traditionally this is an NDP riding and it has been so since the days of the CCF. They've nominated a candidate on Tuesday night (may 25th 2004), Bill Siksay, who for a long time has been Svend-Robinson's assistant. So the experience won't be a problem for Siksay, barring an un-forseen collapse. While the Conservatives and Liberals both think they have a decent shot at the riding my money is on the NDP
    Email: [hidden]
    Bill Siksay was nominated by the NDP last night in Burnaby Douglas. He was on CBC radio this morning and sounded like a pro. He's the guy to keep BD in the orange column on election night
    25/05/04 B.A.S.
    Email: [hidden]
    Cunningham is bleeding votes in this riding. His 'high profile' is coming back to bite him in the butt. Made Paul Wells' column in Macleans as a joke.... Look for the Conservatives to benefit from this situation. NDs peaked with Svend and voters looking for a say in the new government will look towards the Conservatives.
    25/05/04 Bruce Stewart
    Email: bruce@stewart-group.com
    Predicting Burnaby-Douglas in the post-Svend era might seem a challenge, but here's a tidbit from the street ... the Cunningham campaign office is just a few doors down on Hastings St. from Svend's constituency office. Driving by six times in the past week, at various times of day, there's been more action at Svend's office - which is in the process of closing - than there has been at Cunningham's. The level of resentment I've heard from people around the region to this parachute job is higher even than that for Dosanjh in Vancouver South. Robinson is also seen sympathetically - and I expect his NDP successor to benefit as a result. Never forget, in Burnaby, you have what is probably the Lower Mainland's best mayor in Derek Corrigan, whose practical politics is similar enough to the NDP's (and he and his party's victory in the municipals sufficient evidence of voter approval) to suggest that the riding is the NDP's to lose.
    25/05/04 Buffalo
    Email: [hidden]
    Svend was a lucky winner here in 2000 in that the Alliance had no idea they had a chance of winning the seat until too late. Now, with a lesser candidate for the NDP, this should be a pick-up for the Liberals. Why? For the first time since Iona Campagnolo ran in North Vancouver-Burnaby in 1984, the Liberals are running to win. The Liberals were smart to take the heat and appoint Bill Cunningham. There was no chance that instant-membership salesman Tony Kuo could take the seat.
    23/05/04 Keith R
    Email: [hidden]
    This will be intersting with Svend out. I believe Svend received a lot of cross party votes becuse he truly goes to bat for his constiuents. If he had run, I think the CPC would have edged him out. The CA came awful close last time. But with him out, will his cross party support go back to their traditoinal voting patterns? If so, what are they? I think Bill Cunningham's appointment will tick off enough people to prevent him form winning, but it will still be an interesting race. Even without Svend, the NDP will still do well here. Too close to call.
    23/05/04 Victor A.
    Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com
    People tend to forget that Burnaby is a town with a strong left leaning tradition, strong trade union influence, the left wing Mayor and of course he city council that is completely dominated by the NDPers, let alone the fact that this riding was represented by the NDPer since 1979 and the population kept re-electing him though thick and thin ( unpopular BC NDP governments in the past, weaker NDP leaders in the 90-tees ), NDP is very strong in the polls throughout BC and this riding is no exception. Furthermore, the whole process of nomination Bill Cunningham was far away from any form of direct democracy, he is a fine man and a good candidate but the bad press he and Paul Martin got is hardly an advantage. Given the high cridentials of both NDP nomination candidates, it'll be an uphill battle for Cunningham to win, he'll come closer than Mobina Jaffer but still this place is as NDP as it gets.
    23/05/04 DP
    Email: [hidden]
    This is an opportunity for the Conservatives to gain a seat. Bill Cunningham is damaged goods, and the NDP doesn't have a candidate yet. Look for a close race between the Conservatives and NDP, but my money is on George Drazenovic coming out ahead.
    23/05/04 Brian
    Email: brianappel@canada.com
    MC, I think you've been smoking a bit too much BC bud. Regardless of whether Siksay wins the NDP nomination, or whether it's...that other guy, Burnaby-Douglas is staying NDP. Svend Robinson's personal popularity over the past decade has assured this riding is very NDP-friendly, and both of those men are running. As long as whoever wins keeps pounding the pavement and shows they care about Burnaby interests, B-D is a lock for the New Democrats.
    23/05/04 TDH Strategies
    Email: jonathan@tdhstrategies.com
    The word from the inside is that Bill Cunningham is having to scramble for volunteers compared to other Liberal campaigns in the Lower Mainland. They even had to reach out to a very odd selection for an official agent for the campaign. Cunningham has Roy Bornman, staffer to David Anderson and brother of infamous Erik, managing his campaign...which doesn't exactly instill confidence for those looking for Bill to finally relinquish his presidency of the party in BC. George Drazenovic is young and well-spoken, and has a strong group of volunteers surrounding him. He will be formidable. Who knows how Svend's former assistant will be received by the people, but the connection to the NDP is clearly dwarfed by the connection to Svend Robinson as an individual.
    Prediction: NDP sucks off enough votes from Cunningham's fledgling campaign to ensure Drazenovic a victory.
    12/05/04 MC
    Despite the controversy in this riding and the fact that Martin appointed Bill Cunningham, the Liberals will win this riding. Cunningham is a strong candidate with an excellent record of community service. He is a young guy and the Liberals need some rising stars for the future.
    12/05/04 V.D.
    Email: [hidden]
    Interesting news, with the Burnaby-Douglas Liberal riding association board resigning. The local media here covered it, and showed people on the street saying how they would not vote liberal over the issue...
    11/05/04 Scott G.
    Email: [hidden]
    The board of the Liberal riding association here has resigned to protest Cunningham's appointment as the candidate. This is in contrast to other ridings where the Liberals have appointed a candidate and other candidates have had to step aside. In those ridings (e.g. Vancouver South, New West-Coquitlam), the riding association supported the appointments. I admit that my earlier Liberal prediction for Burnaby-Douglas was intended more to generate discussion than as a genuine belief. I still think a Liberal win here is possible, but now I'd call it a remote possibility, and this will probably be a close NDP-Tory race.
    I won't make a prediction for this riding until the NDP choose a candidate. For now, I'll note that each of the two people running for the nomination would probably run a strong campaign. One (Pietro Calendino) is a former MLA and current city councillor, and the other (Bill Siksay) is Robinson's constituency assistant. Neither may be that well known outside of Burnaby, or even inside Burnaby for that matter. Still, both have experience in provincial or federal government, and in running successful election campaigns.
    11/05/04 M.D.
    Email: [hidden]
    Appointment of the Liberal "not so much star candidate" Cunningham shows that Mr. Martin is not serious about keeping his promises nor addressing the democratic deficit. NDP is strong in this riding, but it will be tough for them to replace Mr. Robinson, so looks like the only option for change, new way of doing politics, and the only democratically nominated candidate is George Drazenovic from the Conservative Party.
    11/05/04 Charles
    Email: [hidden]
    I think it will be clear that the Conservatives will win. By having Martin appointing Cunningham, it has essentially given the traditionally grass roots riding to the party that came the closest during the last election. Mathematically, you can figure that the PC Party and Alliance combined last election would have taken the normally socialist riding. People are looking for change, and Burnaby has traditionally been Conservative or Socialist (given that Burnaby's viewed as a rebel community). If the Conservative candidate can put on a good fight, not only will he eat up some Liberal votes, but also eat up some NDP votes, combined with the former PC Party and Alliance votes. I would say the Conservatives would win with a margin of 1,000 to 2,500 votes. Close, but if it's not the Conservatives, it will be the NDP.
    11/05/04 Bernard
    Email: [hidden]
    There is a factor everyone is forgetting, how many votes are the Greens going to take and from where?
    With Svend, the Greens would not have taken more than 5% to 10% of the vote, with out him, there will be bleed to the Greens from the NDP.
    The NDP could still pull off a win here, but it will hard. If no NDP, then the CPC. Bill Cunningham and the Liberals have no hope of a win here. He will be lucky to hold the 2000 Liberal vote (Greens will siphon from him as well)
    10/05/04 Ian King
    Email: vancouverscrum@myrealbox.com
    Okay, the situation here has settled down somewhat. Even sans Svend, Burnaby-Douglas is more likely than not to go NDP whenever we do get around to this election thing. That said, I won't predict an NDP win until they pick their candidate and we see what the local campaign is made of.
    The "appointed candidate" status will drag on Bill Cunningham more than it will on his fellow handpicked Grit contenders thanks to the fuss that the whole process raised in this case. Compare it to the appointments in the Vancouver ridings where none of those who stepped aside for Emerson, Donsanjh, and Chan are publicly grumbling. What is jarring about the whole affair is that north Burnaby residents would be more likely to prefer a Liberal than any flavour of Conservative to replace an NDP MP -- if the local Liberals would at least try to put up a clean and fair appearance. While the area's mostly middle-class, it's also cosmopolitan, with attitudes tending to liberal in both the fiscal and social sense, and a little greenery thrown in (maybe that's what you get from being sandwiched between a university and the city itself, eh?)
    The Conservative supporters can repeat the "we almost won it in 2000 / combined vote woulda knocked off Svend" mantra until they're blue in the face. But the fact remains that not every one who voted CA and PC last time out will vote for the merged party, and the CPC won't hit 56% provincewide this time. No party will crack 50% of the vote, not with a revived NDP and the Liberals unlikely to go much lower than they have in the last 3 elections. The Cons may finish in second here, but I can't see enough factors coming together in the Tories' favour to give them a plurality in Burnaby-Douglas. Meanwhile, there is a strong and winning NDP campaign apparatus to power whoever the Dippers choose to run. Advantage NDP, though not enough to call it without seeing the candidate.
    06/05/04 Liu Bang
    With or without Svend Robinson, Burnaby-Douglas will go NDP on election day. Burnaby has long been strong NDP territory, and the party has a deeper than average reservoir of talent to draw upon here for a replacement. Combine this with the NDP's undoubtedly strong desire to keep this seat, the collapsing tory vote in BC, and the high-handed behavior of the Martin people in imposing a dubious "star" candidate on the local Liberals and I think we can safely count this one as staying orange.
    03/05/04 A.S.
    Email: adma@interlog.com
    PC for the NDP? Sounds reasonable--I wouldn't think they'd want to throw a good thing away so brusquely. And maybe not a Svend-type "star", but for that, they'd have to siphon up D.O.A.'s Joey "Sh*thead" Keighley from the Greens.
    Svend or no Svend, if a Layton wave comes to pass in BC, i.e. if 30% polls sustain themselves into election day, it's imperative that Burnaby-type ridings float into gear "naturally"--and it helps that as a result of Svend's long history, there's no Lib/Con incumbent to dislodge. (Plus there's the matter of the Liberal nomination mess, which foretells yet another case of star-quality Jaffer/Boscariol/Kinsella-type standard-bearers facing humiliation, embarrassment, etc.) keep in mind that if not for Svend, the seat might have voted a la New Westminster-Burnaby in 2000, i.e. NDP well back in third and barely earning back a deposit. On the other hand, virtually every earned 2000 deposit in BC (or anywhere, for that matter) ought to be seen now as an automatic Layton-target cue. The poor thief's just plum lucky that he picked a time like now to bow out, now that his federal leader can pick up the slack...
    01/05/04 jb
    Email: [hidden]
    Pietro Calendino has declared his candidacy for the Burnaby-Douglas NDP nomination. This is very good news for the NDP. Calendino has served the community since 1987, as a school trustee for nine years (two as chair), Burnaby North MLA for five years, and as a city councillor since 2002. In the 2002 election he placed second across the city (behind only Doug Evans), polling first in North Burnaby.
    Calendino speaks at least four or five languages, and has the support of Burnaby's powerful BCA municipal machine behind him. If he wins the nomination, the NDP will keep this seat easily.

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  • Apr 04

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