Prediction Changed
4:01 PM 18/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Burnaby-New Westminster
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Julian, Peter
Lenoski, Gerry
McLaren, Carrie
Rakhra, Sam
Theriault, Joseph
Yetisen, Ismet

Peter Julian

2006 Result:
Peter Julian **
Mary Pynenburg
Marc Dalton
Scott Henry Janzen

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 06 GJJ
My parents live in this riding and are hard-core right wingers. In the past, they voted PC, Reform and Canadian Alliance, and they love Harper. I was astonished to hear Mom say they will stay home on election day rather than vote for the ethically challenged Tory candidate. I wonder how many other Conservative stalwarts will stay home or vote for another candidate.
08 09 23 VanToria
The CBC reported today that the Conservative candidate has been disciplined three times by British Columbia's real estate regulator. Sounds like another candidate in this election with a shady past.
08 09 10 Keglerdave
This riding is a definite hold for the NDP and Peter Julian. The Conservatives chose to go away from a historic attempt to have the first ‘father/son’ team in the House of Commons, by leaving Ryan Wawara to lick his wounds in Vancouver East, and running with Sam Rahkra, who appears to be a one issue wonder (Crime and Punishment.)
On the Liberal side, career backroom operative Gerry Lenoski steps forward into the breach on his maiden campaign. His nomination speech a few nights ago was extremely underwhelming, and being in a position to defend another Carbon Tax proposal, and other elements of the so called ‘green shift’ combined with the weak leadership of Stephaine Dion will make it hard for the Liberals to overcome the overwhelming almost 5000 vote win for the New Democrats in this New Democrat stronghold.
08 03 31 Mike R
The Conservatives have nominated Sam Rakhra, an Indo-Canadian businessman from Burnaby as their candidate. In the last election they were handicapped by having a parachute candidate representing the ?Focus on the Family? side of the party. He was not allowed to seek the nomination this time.
Burnaby New Westminster is one of the most ethnically diverse ridings in the province, and the presence of a visible minority candidate will help win over similar voters (almost 50% of the riding) who have been suspicious of the Conservative party in the past.
That alone would not be sufficient to turn this riding to the Tories, but the evidence of a collapse in Liberal support, as seen in the Vancouver Quadra by-election, indicates there will be a substantial pool of ex-Liberal voters on which to draw. The Tories will need to pick up most of those voters, attract back some of the old Reform/CA voters who returned to the in the last two elections, and hope for a strong Green challenge.
It is by no means a sure thing for the Tories, but the riding is certainly in play.
08 02 28 A.S.
This was a big BC bonus seat for the NDP in '04--though it helped that there was no incumbent--and Peter Julian leapt further from the danger zone in '06. (While ‘Burnaby’ may come first in the riding name, the inherent NDP strength's actually more a New Westminster thing.) Now it looks like an NDP vs ex-NDP race in the making--though ex-NDPers tend to look too sour-grapeish for their own good when they're running against NDP incumbents, take that as forewarning...
08 12 30 Left Coast
Who cares if Peter Julian isn't a ‘national leader’ - as if most MPs actually fall under that category. The NDP took this riding by a pretty comfortable margin last time and is pretty traditional NDP territory. The Conservatives came in third place last time and won't be taking this any time soon.
07 11 06 MikeR
A clarification, there is no Conservative Party candidate in this riding yet. Ryan Warawa is one of three announced candidates for the nomination, along with Sam Rakhra and Marc Dalton. No date has yet been set for the nomination.
I am surprised anyone would suggest Peter Julian has what it takes to be a national leader. I don't think he has made much of a mark himself in the riding - certainly he doesn't have the presence of a Bill Siksay, or even Dawn Black in her better years.
The NDP have a good civic and provincial organization in Burnaby, and that has always helped their candidates. The sagging fortunes of the provincial party, however, may hurt Julian in the next federal campaign. The fortunes of the provincial and federal candidates tend to rise and fall in unison. I don't think Julian has the profile yet to move any votes on his own - the NDP vote will rise and fall with the national trend. Given the general upswing in the Tory vote, and the general fall in Grit support, the issue is going to be where that Grit vote goes.
There has been no Liberal nomination in this riding either, and only one announced candidate that I am aware of. That may mean the Liberals have some ‘name’ they are holding back. Or it may mean that they have written this riding off, after having come within a whisker of victory in 2004 and fallen back in 2006.
But, on the whole, this riding, while leaning NDP, with the advantage of an incumbent, is still a potential three-way fight with anyone being capable of taking it, depending on the national trends.
07 11 06 tducey
Again another seat that will go NDP. The CPC candidate, Ryan Warawa, is if I'm not mistaken the son of CPC MP Mark Warawa, so that may help him. Still Julian, as a previous poster said, is a possible future leader for the NDP and with that in mind the people in this riding may vote him back in again.
07 10 12 MikeR
Recent rumour has it that David Orchard is looking at this riding for another attempt at getting into politics. Although his roots are in Saskatchewan, he always had a loyal core of followers in the lower mainland, so this would not be as odd a move as it might seem (Tommy Douglas leapt from Saskatchewan to what is now Burnaby Douglas following a defeat at home, so there is even a precedent of sorts).
The Liberals have been very quiet about who might run in this riding, the previously announced contenders all having withdrawn. And Stephan Dion owes Mr. Orchard a favour - since Orchards 140 or so delegates were sufficient to keep Mr. Dion in the leadership race ahead of Gerard Kennedy.
If he runs it would mean both the NDP candidate, formerly Maude Barlowe's employee, and the Liberal were died-in-the-wool anti-free traders. His presence might attract some soft NDPers, but would also tend to drive traditional voters away from the Liberal party.
A strong Conservative candidate might be able to exploit that opportunity. So far there isn't such a candidate on the horizon.
I would think that even with the possibility of David Orchard (or perhaps I should say especially with that possibility) this riding is still going to stay in the hands of the NDP.
07 05 06 B.O.
To Steve L., the balcony rapist is obviously a big issue in this riding but I don't see how it can be a partisan issue. The balcony rapist was released from prison and moved into New Westminster under a Conservative government. The federal government is not doing anything to try to move the balcony rapist out of New Westminster nor does it have any power to do so unless the balcony rapist commits a new offence. Steve L. referred to this issue being Western Alienation. But if it is Western Alienation, it is Western Alienation occurring under a Conservative government. So I'm at a loss to see any way the Conservative candidate can make this an issue to the Tories' advantage because all of this controversy is happening under the Tories' watch.
07 04 18 Steve L.
oh crap i forgot a very important issue in this riding.
the ‘balcony rapist’ has moved into New Westminster, much to the chagrin of New Westminster residents. now it beats me why a guy who was ordered to never set foot in Ontario again would be a free man in BC, but that's western alienation for you.
even if the non-NDP guys are all in disarray here, this single issue will put the Conservatives back in play, no matter who they nominate. the Conservatives might not have any particularly gifted people at the nomination contests right now, but with some planning, any political novice from the Conservatives should be able to use this issue to their advantage. the question is just how effective the Conservatives will be in capitalizing on the rather apparent voter dissatisfaction against the coming of the balcony rapist (there was a protest in New Westminster a while ago). and then the Liberals will be nothing more than a ‘theoretically’ potent challenger. it might even affect the other New Westminster riding - Dawn Black's riding, more specifically. but who knows?
07 04 15 Steve L.
the Liberals have nominated NDP turncoat Steve McClurg.
The Conservatives are undecided between Marc Dalton trying to install his own sleeper agents into the EDA board, and - uh - some other candidates that don't exactly come across as impressive.
Suffice to say none of these people look too sharp.
Unless something dramatic happens Peter Julian (sometimes looked to as a possible contender for NDP leadership in the still-hypothetical post-Layton era) should take this riding.
07 04 10 Frank
The Conservatives are out of the race in this riding due to the strong leftist contingent of voters in new West. The Liberals will not be able to capitalize on any momentum or fear of the Conservatives this time, and, with a Candidate like McGlurg, will probably lose ground over last time.
07 04 06 M. Lunn
Unlike Burnaby-Douglas, I think the NDP is reasonably safe here since this riding includes part of New Westminster, which unlike Burnaby has stayed solidly NDP. Burnaby is sort of in a transition period and is not the working class riding it use to be, but rather a real mixed bag meaning it is a potential target for the Liberals. The Tories are even more of a long shot since they seem to struggle in the inner suburbs and usually a strongest more in the outer suburbs and considering how close Burnaby is to Vancouver, it is probably a little too close to Vancouver to win.
07 03 27 B.O.
The New Democrat won this seat comfortably last time. Although technically a 3 way race, for now I'm going to predict the New Democrat winning this seat again because he has incumbent's advantage and there is no compelling reason for voters to vote him out.

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