Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Burnaby-New Westminster

Prediction Changed
2009-10-05 10:14:00

Constituency Profile


Evans, Garth

Forseth, Paul

Julian, Peter

McLaren, Carrie

Pierce, Tyler

Theriault, Joseph

Peter Julian

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • burnaby-douglas (33/215 Polls)
  • new-westminster-coquitlam-burnaby (88/228 Polls)
  • vancouver-south-burnaby (70/203 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    The Tories have struggled just to get to 33% and without a strong Liberal-NDP split there is no way they can win this. Burnaby-Douglas was competitive as it has a larger Chinese population who are generally centre-right, but in the past went Liberal, but the Tories have since made gains amongst. Also in the past two provincial elections, the BC Liberals would have taken Burnaby-Douglas, but the BC NDP would have taken Burnaby-New Westminster thus this riding is less favourable to the Conservatives than Burnaby-Douglas. The Liberals really don't have much chance here although they may crack the 20% mark this time around.
    11 04 14 burlivespipe
    Julian took a new york minute to think about throwing his hat in the provincial leadership ring -- and then realized the grass isn't always greener. He chose that aiming to be No. 3 was better than being leader of the opposition and possible premier. That said, he's a lock in this race and anyone else dare to call Forseth as a 'respectable candidate' will get a Moe Howard haircut. Forseth will get the church lady votes but still lose by 5,000. Evans came to the dance late but should get the Grits back near 20%...
    11 04 14 Tony Ducey
    Going to be close but there's a good chance Julian could be the next leader of the federal NDP, no way does he lose this riding.
    11 04 06
    I agree the NDP had a big plurality in the last election, and the advantage of an incumbent. The size of that lead may be a bit of an illusion, though, as this riding did not show the considerable narrowing of the NDP/Tory gap that happened in Burnaby-Douglas and New Westminster-Coquitlam. That appears to be because the disaffected Liberal vote went almost en masse to Julian instead of the Tory candidate. A better known Tory candidate like Paul Forseth, without the negative baggage that unfortunately hampered Sam Rakhra, as well as moderately improving Liberal fortunes will change the dymamics. It remains an uphill climb, but Paul Forseth used to draw on the populist vote that went away from the NDP to Reform and the CA, and then went back to the NDP in 2004/5/8. He may be able to attact some of that old vote again. I acknowlege its a longer shot than many ridings, but I wouldn't be complacent if I were in the NDP position.
    11 04 05 Dave
    Oh come on Mike. Still living the dream. Julian's margins have steadily increased over the 3 election cycles he has won this riding. And Paul Forseth has in effect been thrown under the bus by the Harperites, particularly Senator Yonah Martin. Here's a chance to do away with Forseth once and for all. Solid win for Julian, one of the hardest working MPs on the hill.
    11 04 04 SDW
    Peter Julian is hard working and popular. Paul Forseth is a rerun who defeated Dawn Black in 1993 as a Reform candidate and was, in turn, defeated by Dawn Black in 2006. Garth Evans was part of a broken and dysfunctional team of Burnaby Councillors that demonstrated that they couldn't work with or for anyone.
    11 04 05 M. Lunn
    The Liberals have no chance at winning here and it is a long shot for the Tories so unless the Tories can reach the Alliance level of support in 2000, I suspect the NDP will hold this.
    11 04 01 Mike R
    This riding will be much closer than last time. The NDP benefitted from a collapse in Liberal support last election, with virtually all their support going to the NDP. That was likely because of some challenges with the Conservative candidate, who was new and had some unfortunate negative publicity early in the campaign. This time the Conservative is a former four-term MP who was successful when the riding boundaries were very similar. The Liberals are polling better now, and the NDP worse, which may make for a very close three-way race here - if the Liberals can find a candidate.
    09 10 05 Nick J Boragina
    I noticed the projection here was recently changed from TCTC to NDP. I can't get behind that. While the CPC is down at this time within the province, they also recently have reached majority levels in nation wide polls. If Harper does manage a majority, there is a good chance that this riding could be part of that.
    09 09 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Though not ridiculous to call this TCTC, we think that the NDP (or rather Peter Julian) will hold this seat. His support has steadily climbed and the CPC (for the moment) are not as popular in BC as they were election time last year.
    09 09 13 David Y.
    Peter Julian won by 329 votes in 2004, 4001 votes in 2006, and 6995 votes in 2008.
    Only a 1993-type collapse in NDP support would shift this riding away, now that Julian has proven to be a more and more popular M.P.
    Easy NDP hold!
    09 08 31 MF
    I agree with DL. It wasn't even close last time - Peter Julian won by 7,000 votes last time and the Tories have almost certainly maxed out in BC.
    09 08 28 DL
    Peter Julian won here by a really solid margin last election and since that time Tory support has fallen in BC. This will be an easy hold
    11 04 28 disguysdalimit
    Mike, the Liberal collapse in Vancouver's eastern suburbs is very old news. The libs haven't been able to get close to second place here recently, even with a strong candidate in 2006 (Joyce Murray). This seat has been trending towards being NDP territory for a while now. The wealthier parts of tri-cities are in James Moore's riding next door, and New Westminster has always been reliably orange. Can't see the NDP losing this, especially with ‘Layton-mania’ going on.

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