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Burnaby-New Westminster
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
1:14 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
1:14 PM 6/26/2004

Constituency Profile
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Canadian Action canadienne:
Dana Green
Péter Pál Horváth
Peter Julian
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Revel Kunz
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Mary Pynenburg
Mike Redmond

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Burnaby-Douglas (15.0%)
Svend Robinson
New Westminster-Coquitlam-Burnaby (48.6%)
Paul Forseth
Vancouver South-Burnaby (36.4%)
Hon. Herb Dhaliwal

2000 Result/Résultats:
15,024 40.26%
12,488 33.46%
6,022 16.14%
2,692 7.21%
1,095 2.93%

(33/215 polls, 9637/73220 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

New Westminster-Coquitlam-Burnaby
(88/228 polls, 31202/78509 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Vancouver South-Burnaby
(70/203 polls, 23350/71410 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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13/06/04 MSH
Email: [hidden]
A Globe and Mail story on Saturday, June 12th, reports that the Liberals and NDP are gaining strength in B.C.'s metropolitan core (Greater Vancouver and and Greater Victoria), while the Conservatives are gaining in the Interior and the north. Not surprising: the Conservatives represent older Canadians of European background to a greater degree than do the other two parties, which are more tuned into the newer Canada. What this means for this and other hotly-contested lower Mainland ridings is that the battle is now between the Liberals and the NDP, and that in several of the ridings, including this one, the outcome cannot be predicted with any certainty.
09/06/04 C. Hubley
Email: [hidden]
"Finally, in 2000 only 4.3% voted for the GP and other fringe parties. The Ipsos-Reid poll found 13% support for the GP. Traditionally this federal GP support in pre-election polls has not held, and could likely go to the NDP." That's true, typically the GP vote is cut in half on election day by panicked voters not wanting to "waste their vote" if they sense a really bad MP being elected. However, you can't compare 2000 with now:
1. GP is not a fringe party now, even if you claim they were in 2000 - 6% across Canada and 13% in BC is not fringe, even if you think the numbers will not hold, and, 308 candidates running is more than even the NDP has
2. 2001 provincial election changed the whole picture: debate visibility, and Greens in some ridings polling over 25%; 2000 is basically another universe
3. various NDP disgraces since then like losing a Premier to the Liberals and a high profile MP to his own inner turmoil
If you must insist on comparing 2000 to now, then, realize that the GP vote Canada-wide was 0.8% then, and even allowing for slack and cutting the vote in half on election day, it will be at least 2.5% in 2004 across country. So if Green vote is tripling in general, then, 3% becomes 9% becomes a factor in many BC ridings.
Also, "BC Liberal" now means "corporate" or "right wing", the Liberal party federally will carry this baggage and tend to split votes with the Conservatives. Trudeau Liberals, NDPers and Greens who rally behind either the NDP or Green candidate can probably take several BC ridings. But they have to decide to do that. ;-)
03/06/04 Jack L.
Email: [hidden]
Pynenburg is pounding them. Many more Pynenburg signs than Julian and Redmond signs together. And almost all of the Redmond signs are on public property. Julian's going to finish a distant second ... but it will set him up nicely for his provincial run against Joyce Murray. Beating Joyce Murray will be easy ... well, except that Julian has a history of running and losing. Maybe the NDP should go back to the past, dig up Graeme Bowbrick, and run him again.
02/06/04 JamesC
Email: [hidden]
If campaign headquarters are any indication, it would appear that Mike Redmond's behemoth on Kingsway is a sign that they are flush with contributions.
Email: [hidden]
I predict that Mary Pynenburg's experience as chief city planner will work against her, rather than for her, in the West End of New Westminster (approx 10% of the new riding). She has been "pro-development" within this single family resident neighbourhood, and has not been accessible, nor consultative when tensions between developers and residents arise. Plus the BC LIberals are hated here (closing St. Mary's hospital, etc)
This will make for a tight three way race, due to a very low New West profile of Mike Redman . If the voting were today, I would say Peter Julian by a nose.
25/05/04 Brother C.
Email: [hidden]
It has been interesting driving around the riding, seeing all sorts of sign over the place. But one would soon realize who is getting more support. On one hand you get Mr. Julian's signs, which often stands on abandoned property or government ground, which must be noted is not permitted in Burnaby especially in a school property. Now I do have to add there are one or two houses with support for Mr. Julian, but they are putting mutiple large signs on one location. Where I actually saw one with two large signs and two small signs at the same lawn. Either they at the NDP have way too much to spend, or that's Mr. Peter Julian's own place, or else they don't have much place to put their signs on. On the other hand you have Mike Redmond, which not only have signs lands on road dividers and government property, but have noone to fix signs after they were destroyed over night (note: Walker and Imperial, for those who are supporters of Mr. Redmond. Fix it!) The only one you really see sign supports is Mary Pynenburg, which signs of large and small are popping up all over the riding, and on private property I might add. Clearly support is out numbered.
23/05/04 DP
Email: [hidden]
I believe that this will be a Conservative gain. Mike Redmond is an experienced, articulate candidate, and the Conservatives are poised to do well in BC.
23/05/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
This is going to be an interesting race. I expect a tight three way race all the way to the end. Polls are showing the CPC back in the lead by a good bit.
Some comments on the situation. This is one of the few ridings were both the Federal Liberal candidate and CPC candidate are connected to the provincial government. This could work to the benefit of the NDP.
The area has gone all over the map provincially and is not in anyone's camp as such. Though the homeowners in the area have become property rich over the last few years as their house prices have skyrocketed
08/05/04 Ugly American
Email: [hidden]
NDP clearly have potential to challenge in this riding, and are likely to target it - as of May 04 local factors appear to slightly favor NDP over Liberals - fearless preciction: NDP
01/05/04 Henry
Email: [hidden]
Pynenburg will win, because she is moderate and reasonable ... like the majority of the population. Moreover, even though the NDP paint her as a supporter of the Campbell government, facts contradict their daydreams. It is Redmond, not Pynenburg, who is a member of Joyce Murray's riding association executive.
27/04/04 jb
Email: [hidden]
When Peter Julian ran municipally, he lost in the eastern part of New Westminster but won the western part (ie. the part that's in the federal riding of Burnaby-New Westminster); he got 40% of the vote there. Julian also has strong roots in the Burnaby part of the riding, and has the support of Burnaby's popular mayor, Derek Corrigan. Look for the NDP to seriously target this riding and pour lots of resources there.
Pynenburg and Redmond are both members of the provincial Liberals, the party responsible for the St. Mary's Hospital fiasco (probably the most pressing public policy issue in the riding). Say, did you know that every riding bordering Burnaby-New Westminster will have an appointed (or virtually appointed) Liberal candidate?
24/04/04 Henry
Email: [hidden]
ANY application of current polling numbers on the revised results show that the Liberal will win this constituency. Julian, the failed municipal candidate, has no hope: he is clearly preparing for a provincial run against Joyce Murray. Redmond, a member of Joyce Murray's riding association executive, will be Pynenburg's toughest competitor. But Redmond will be deeply hurt by his connection to the very unpopular B.C. Liberals who closed St. Mary's Hospital.
22/04/04 N.P.
Email: [hidden]
This one will be a fight between the Liberal Party and the NDP, but I think it will go NDP based on the analysis of the voter opinion "swing" between the 2000 Election results in BC and latest Ipsos-Reid poll. In the 2000 federal election the popular vote in BC was 56.7% CPC (combined CA and PC vote), 27.7% LP, 11.3% NDP and 4.3% other. The last Ipsos-Reid poll for BC had the CPC fall to 27% (only 47.5% of their 2000 results), the LP up slightly at 30% (108% of their 2000 results) and the NDP more than doubling to 25% (221% of their 2000 results). If you make the assumption that the voter swing in Burnaby - New Westminster will follow the trend of the voter opinion swing in the entire province of BC, the NDP and LP are in a dead heat with the CPC a distant third.
When you further explore this assumption and compare the 2000 results in the polls that now make up Burnaby - New Westminster to BC provincial popular vote, you find that the redistributed CPC vote of 47.47% was below the BC trend of 56.7% (84% of BC popular vote), the LP vote of 33.46% was above the BC trend of 27.7% (121% of BC popular vote), and the NDP vote of 16.14% was well above the BC trend of 11.3% (143% of BC popular vote).
Finally, in 2000 only 4.3% voted for the GP and other fringe parties. The Ipsos-Reid poll found 13% support for the GP. Traditionally this federal GP support in pre-election polls has not held, and could likely go to the NDP.
19/04/04 GP
Email: [hidden]
Mike Redmond will win this contest, he has the experience campaigning in the area, he will have a top notch organization. He has momentum from the latest polls showing the Paul Martin Liberals sinking and the CPC picking up that support and he has the benefit of a largely conservative demographic in the riding (combined CA PC vote from 2000 almost 48%)
19/04/04 Scott G.
Email: [hidden]
Julian's involvement with the Council of Canadians will help him pick up support from a few different places, such as former PC members who support(ed) David Orchard, and Canadian Action Party supporters. It's odd that the left in Canada is so divided when so many of its factions - the NDP, CAP, Orchard's movement, and the Council of Canadians in particular - are so similar, with economic and political nationalism at their core. (The Greens could also be described as nationalists, but it's less of a central concern to them.) The nationalist vote may not be big enough to be decisive. Still, it's worth keeping in mind that the Council of Canadians was started by disgruntled Liberals such as Maude Barlow. Julian could pick up votes from Liberals who could tolerate Chretien but see Martin as too right-wing and too friendly with Washington. If people are looking for something to distinguish the candidates in this riding, as opposed to just voting by party, Julian's Council of Canadians connections will probably help him.
19/04/04 GM
Email: [hidden]
It's a two-horse competition between Pyenburg and Redmond, and I think with the combined vote that Redmond with his good campaign team will pull it off. With her healthcare background, Pyenburg should get some of that weak NDP support, but I don't think it's a match for an area that has a lot of conservative support.
17/04/04 jb
Email: [hidden]
The Royal City Record has carried numerous articles on Mary Pynenburg's ethical lapses, specifically her leaning on city employees to donate to her campaign (she is the Director of Planning for the city). Also, the Liberal association is badly divided after a bruiser of a nomination, and many of the Rankinites are not going to support her, just as Pynenburg's people didn't do much for Rankin when he won the nomination in '00. This new seat is tailor-made for the NDP, and Peter Julian looks like a very strong and credible candidate.
15/04/04 Interested Voter
Email: [hidden]
Mike Redmond has name recognition from running last time. Combined PC/Alliance vote is 49% from 2000. Green candidate will take away from surging NDP. Redmond is running a well-financed campaign and has brought in a lot of high profile organizers to his team.
17/04/04 Stan
Email: [hidden]
Latest polls (April 12, 2004) give NDP 25% in BC. Combined with a good portion of the 13% Green support in same Ipsos-Reid poll, a NDP style Burnaby City council, an unpopular right wing BC Liberal provincial government, this seat should go NDP.
08/04/04 Jack
Email: [hidden]
The New Democrats and Reformed-Conservatives have yet to open offices, or knock on doors. Only one candidate appears to be taking this seriously: Mary Pynenburg, the Liberal, who is out knocking on doors every day.
Historical results show that this will be a two-way battle between the Liberals and the merged right-wing entity. Were the NDP to be taken seriously, they would need to have selected a top-tier candidate. Instead, they selected someone who couldn't win a council seat in New Westminster.
Meanwhile the Conservatives picked a nice guy who ran a poor campaign last time, and who will be unable to compete with the well-organized Pynenburg.
28/03/04 David
Email: [hidden]
Burnaby doesn't have a history of going NDP - Svend Robinson has a history in his riding. This is an easy win for former Vice President of the PC Party Mike Redmond.
20/03/04 Jesse Hoffman
Email: [hidden]
Adam Yoshida: "not without a truly massive shift in support". I'm not sure where you have been lately, or if you have been paying attention to any poll results, but there HAS been a fairly massive shift in support. The latest Ipsos poll has the NDP numbers nearly tripled in BC since the last election (at 30% up from 11%), and the CPC down 30% from the combined PC and CA vote in the last election in BC(at 27% down from 57%)! I would call that a massive shift in support! The NDP has a strong candidate in the riding, and this will be one of the many BC ridings that go NDP in the next election.
20/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Burnaby has a history of going NDP. Weather it will this time or not remains to be seen.
19/03/04 Liu Bang
Email: [hidden]
Adam Yoshida is relying far too much on past numbers - there are some seismic shifts in voter preferences going on out there, perhaps nowhere more so than B.C., which along with Quebec, is the most volatile electoral region of Canada. A strong NDP candidate (Peter Julian, a former exec director of the Council of Canadians), a deeply rooted NDP electoral machine in the Burnaby and New Westminster end of greater Vancouver, will combine with falling Liberal and Conservative numbers in BC to give this one to the New Democrats.
18/03/04 M.W.
Email: mijawara@yahoo.com
A new riding, Burnaby-New West will offer one of the two most exciting races in the Lower Mainland this year (the other's Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam). Conservatives are running lawyer and Rotarian Mike Redmond, Liberals have planner/small businesswoman and Rotarian Mary Pynenburg. The New Democrats put forward Peter Julian, former executive director of the Council of Canadians, in this riding where (according to the transposition of votes) the party took 16.14% in a very poor election. Julian is by far the strongest candidate of the bunch, and his party's riding high. Tentatively, NDP pickup; otherwise, squeaker Conservative win.
18/03/04 Adam Teiichi Yoshida
Email: ayoshida@fas.harvard.edu
The NDP has no chance in this riding. Look, they aren't going to climb from 16% to victory, not without a truly massive shift in support. What they have the ability to do is to make an impressive showing and take some Liberal votes.
Call this a Conservative victory.
16/03/04 P. Kelly
Email: [hidden]
NDP to take this seat. This is not a real ‘conservative’ area and as such, will return to its traditional voting trends and elect an NDP MP by a comfortable margin. This area is where the strong NDP support is concentrated. Look for an unemployed conservative MP.

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