Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:46:39

Constituency Profile


Browne, Louis

Dolata, Wojciech

Fraser, Trent

Friesen, Tamela

Weir, Erin

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre
   (110/172 polls, 66.57% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Tom Lukiwski

   (62/172 polls, 33.43% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Ray Boughen


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15 10 13 Gordon F Hunter
Saskatchewan likes to be on the winning team. The CPC continues to slide in the polls. With Harper shedding supporters across the country the soft Conservatives will abandon him. Browne isn't really in the game in so I see voters moving back to Wier.
15 10 12 GFH
The race is tight but if the proliferation of signs is an indicator, particularly in the North of the riding Erin Wier is still a solid contender. Fraser trailing and Browne just isn't a player.
15 10 10 Jack Cox
NDP blew it here with a weak national campaign, their only chance is probably Saskatoon West and that's fading day by day.
15 09 27 MUBS
From Mainstreet polls Sept. 25th
?In Regina, we see a lead by the Conservative candidate with 34% a 6 point lead over the NDP. This race may yet tighten up with more than 3 weeks to go, but right now, it looks like Trent Fraser may have enough to win ? 80% of his supporters say they won't switch,? said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research.
This should be TCTC
15 09 28 A.S.
The NDP being behind here may be less a signal of the party being 'well and truly done in Saskatchewan', than of the same old 'however much you insist, *don't* don't wildly overestimate Stop Harper sentiment in the Prairies'. Or, if they *are* well and truly done, it'd be provincially as well as federally--or the only thing in the way of absolute oblivion for the Tommy Douglas team is the fact that the provincial Liberals are still nothing more than a shell entity...
15 09 25 R.O.
Mainstreet polling released a poll for this riding around 639 residents of the riding were polled , there results among decided voters . 40 cpc , 34 ndp , 21 lib , 5 green . it appears to be a close conservative / ndp race in this regina riding .
15 09 25 Jeff S
According to this poll, Liberals rise in support from 2011 taking votes from NDP in what should be an NDP pickup. TCTC.
15 09 04 Laurence Putnam
With the loss of the incumbent, redistribution of this riding and the Conservatives down over all, let's just put it this way....if the NDP CAN'T win this one, they are well and truly done in Saskatchewan. I suspect they will win this one.
15 08 08 R.O.
Well some factors maybe help the ndp here such as redistribution and being an open riding this year. I still feel Saskatchewan is an area the cpc has support and that they remain competitive in areas like this . although low profile Trent Fraser is still a good candidate for them . the west isn't really Mulcair's area of strongest support and true the ndp had done well in this province historically its been a challenging area for them recently although redistribution may change that in the cities. So maybe too close to call until more of the campaign plays out.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
With a strong candidate and a more urban riding, the NDP stand to do well here. Considering the polling numbers in this riding, I think it's a safe bet to say that this riding will be an easy pick up for the NDP.
15 04 30 Gillian
With a well-known and popular candidate in Erin Weir, if the NDP take any Saskatchewan ridings, it will be this.
15 04 26 Docere
The new map in Saskatchewan is much better for the NDP and should allow them to pick up some urban seats. Regina-Lewvan should be one of them.
15 04 05 Stevo
Conservative hegemony in Saskatchewan (minus Wascana) is over, though it's been a good run for them. The only way this doesn't flip NDP would be if Mulcair completely fumbles the campaign which, given his experience and methodical nature, seems unlikely. If the NDP had a leader such as Bill Blaikie, a seat like this would be a no-brainer for the NDP.
15 03 29 Logan Bobetsis
TCTC. Should be an interesting 3 way race with 3 high profile candidates, likely a progressive takes this riding, but of which stripe? And the CPC candidate is experienced and hard working, wouldn't be a huge upset for him to win. Will be hard fought with the big three parties targeting this riding, should be the most interesting race in SK.
15 03 29 monkey
Definitely looks ripe for an NDP pickup, but with the Liberals up nationally and the fact some vote based on national issues, not regional or local the question will be do the Liberals siphon off enough NDP votes to allow the Tories to slip up the middle.
15 03 25 Jack Cox
For now NDP, but the Liberals could pull a surprise here if they reach the low 30's in the Prairies
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
NDP should have an edge and will fight hard for this one. The real question is whether former councillor Louis Browne will get anywhere for the Liberals. If the Cons win this one, it's purely due to vote splits.

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