Prediction Changed
12:20 PM 19/09/2008

Election Prediction Project

Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Kress, Fred
Lukiwski, Tom
Lysack, Monica
Stulberg, Nicolas

Tom Lukiwski

2006 Result:
Tom Lukiwski **
Moe Kovatch
Gary Anderson
Bill Sorochan

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 04 Sask_Uke
This one could possibly gone NDP if Kress had more time to organize. The Liberals will finish a distant third. A recent poll next door in Palliser showed that Dion is loathed in Saskatchewan. Lysack has no chance.
08 09 21 DavidC
Monica Lysack, the Liberal candidate, is winning the sign battle, the media battle and seems to have united the anti-Conservation, anti-Tom Lukiwski vote by gaining support from the NDP, who appear to be running a mostly paper candidate (no signs to date, and candidate has no resume).
Lysack will take this riding in a close battle with Tom L., But the anti Tom Lukiwski sentiment is very real and people want a change. Monica is educated and experienced working with all political parties. She's a winner by Regina standards.
08 09 15 Gregor Burton
Stephen Harper accepted Lukiwiski's apology as punishment enough for the comments the incumbent MP made on tape. Regardless of the length of time that has passed, Lukiwiski demonstrated the perspective that is--in my opinion--rampant within the CPC. I highly doubt the voters of Regina/Lumsden/Lake-Centre will be so forgiving, as Lukiwiski's comments have shed a negative light on both the CPC and Saskatchewan. Gary Anderson came very close to taking this riding in 2004. In the intensely anti-Liberal climate of 2006, Anderson still had a strong showing, and split votes with a popular NDP candidate. Given Lukiwiski's fall from grace, Moe Kovatch's late-in-the-game withdrawl, and Andersons' stalwart determination to be elected, this riding is ripe for the Liberal picking!
08 09 14 Weyburn Guy
Lukiwski's unfortunate comments are ancient history, metaphorically and literally. Most voters wouldn't consider a 16 year old tape relevant, and even if they did, few will remember it since it hasn't been in the news recently. It's not unreasonable to look for a closer finish here than in 2006, but the CPC is still the clear favorite.
08 09 13 Giant Political Mouse
As sad as it is to see homophobic Lukwiski win again, the NDP (who almost always place second in this seat) nominated far to late (as in last night) to get their candidate out there working. As a result the CPC will hold this seat.
08 09 08 Louis Riel Trail
Just a note here: Moe Kovatch will not be the NDP candidate - he pulled out of the election. The NDP will nominate something else. This is moderate riding and whatever happens in the NDP nomination will greatly impact the outcome of this election. So, its going to be too close to call for a while.
08 05 08 R.O.
This mp was in the news recently after the ndp released a 16 year old videotape of him making rude comments for which he later apologized for. Although it got a lot of press I don?t recall reading any articles where anyone said they though he wouldn?t be able to hold onto this riding. The ndp or liberals would need a star candidate to make any inroads here I suspect. The ndp have nominated Maurice Kovatch and liberals candidate hasn?t ran here before. But I still think the opposition would need a much more high profile candidate to truly challenge Tom Lukiwski here based on the ridings previous results.
08 04 05 I'm Always Right
Anyone who's a political junkie should read a Joan Bryden's April 4th piece for CP about the Tom Lukiwski's now famous video. Bryden takes a look at the history of Conservative backbenchers slipping out from as she describes ?Harper's iron control? and making their more extreme opinions public. It's quite a list. Bryden correctly points out how these moments have damaged the Conservatives in the big three cities of Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver. Back in Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre however, Lukiwski is in no trouble of being removed from the Conservative caucus or replaced as their candidate. Lukiwski's views that were captured on that video tape won't be offending many people in this western riding and I think he'll end up with very big win when his constituents go to the polls. Whenever that ends up happening. Take the time to read Bryden's article. It's worth the time.
08 04 04 SaskPhoenix
Well, well... now that the video's sprung out of the closet (pun intended) and Tom Lukiwski is caught red-handed, I have to wonder if the Conservatives will even let him run for them in the next election? They may as well as drop him and pick someone who does not have a skeleton in his/her closet.
Talk about putting your foot in your mouth when it comes to spouting off sexist, racist, and homophobic remarks......
I am calling this too close to call as it depends on how the Conservatives handle this issue before the next election. If Lukiwski stays, the Conservatives will lose a lot of support and this riding could go to either NDP or Liberal. But only time will tell. TCTC now.
08 04 04 Peg Leg Pete
Conservative Tom Lukiwsk's highly offensive comments about homosexsuals in a video tape that was made public by the NDP this week is big news. Not only will these comments not bring even a slap on the wrist for Lukiwski in Ottawa but he'll be rewarded by his constituents with re-election in 2009. This is where this kind of rant is fine and dandy. Tommy won by 5000 votes last time and I predict this riding reward him with a 9000 vote victory in 2009.
08 03 12 R.O.
There had been a few elections where this riding was very close, and in the past it had been an ndp riding . But politics in Saskatchewan has changed over the years and conservative party has been successful here. Another factor here is liberal Gary Anderson is not running again he came close in 2004, liberals have new candidate Monica Rysack. Unsure what the ndp are doing for a candidate. But feel Tom Lukiwski is a strong enough mp that he can hold this seat.
08 02 10 A.S.
A seat which encapsulates the eclipse of the once-regnant federal NDP in Saskatchewan, starting with the ground unexpectedly falling out under incumbent John Solomon in 2000, and continuing with Moe Kovatch doing no better than third in 2004 (though he nicked back up to second in 2006). Assuming that the NDP's still (esp. after the provincial election) in reconstruction mode, and the Ralph Goodale presence continues to render the Liberals paradoxically (and, to the political left, parasitically) weak-yet-strong, and that even the CPC foundation remains oddly shallow and possibly vulnerable to an anti-Harper grassroots, the prognosis in RLLC remains garbled. Most that can be said is that, sitting on a 40%+ mandate and an over 10-point advantage, Lucky Lukiwski might have the ‘what the heck, stick with the incumbent’ upper hand anyway...
07 09 16 Nick J Boragina
No official predictions yet? Let me be the first. CPC. Why? Well simple really, both the Liberals and NDP are falling over themselves to win more suburban and urban voters across the country. While that might do them well in most provinces, in Saskatchewan it’s meaningless. Regina and Saskatoon are not growing as fast as urban areas in other provinces, and due to the way the ridings were drawn, both cities are split into four. Each riding, like this one for example, is about 50% city, and 50% rural. What that means with the parties distributed as they are currently, is that the rural half will vote overwhelmingly for the Tories, while the Urban areas split between the NDP and Liberals. Both the NDP or Liberals would have to take half the vote of the other in order to come out and beat the Tories here. What we see in Saskatchewan is the opposite if what we saw in rural Ontario in the 1990’s. Vote Splitting, but this time on the left.
07 06 26 SaskPhoenix
I am not going to make a prediction as of now, but with the way things are looking for the Saskatchewan Conservative MPs over the broken equalization promises, their re-election chances have become weaker. If Premier Calvert and public opinion continue against the Tories, the urban Tory MPS could be turfed out by angry voters on election day.
07 06 24 binriso
Most Likely a CPC hold but I believe that the NDP could win here with a weaker Liberal candidate. A Liberal win here is not too far off either if the stars align right, they almost won in 04. Certainly though i give the advantage to the CPC. For now...
07 04 10 M. Lunn
Of the three Regina ridings, this is the most favourable to the Conservatives so as long as they don't bomb in Saskatchewan they should hold this. A real question will be how big an impact the Canadian Wheat Board changes will have in the rural sections and the equalization changes in the riding as a whole. So far they seem to be having little impact, but the NDP and Liberals seem convinced they will.

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