Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
9:46 AM 6/23/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
12:55 AM 17/03/2004

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Dave Batters
Dick Proctor
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Brian Rands
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Harold Stephan
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
John Williams

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Palliser (100.0%)
Dick Proctor

2000 Result/Résultats:
11,986 38.36%
11,683 37.39%
6,351 20.32%
1,228 3.93%
0 0.00%

(153/153 polls, 50531/50531 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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21/06/04 JCM
Dick Proctor is a great MP and an awesome person, but the Conservatives seem to have focussed all of their Regina guns on this constituency.
Voters in Moose Jaw have been known to vote Reform federally.
It appears Dick Proctor is in the fight of his life.
With the national momentum behind the Conservatives, I would have to give Dave Batters a slight edge in this race.
I hope I am wrong about Palliser.
21/06/04 David C.
Email: [hidden]
Proctor was trailing or winning by 20% I wouldn't say this riding is a slam-dunk. That being said I give the edge to Proctor.
1) He's an incumbent and has a strong record as a good constituency MP and a good organization to get out the vote, 2) the Provincial NDP has recovered somewhat since 2000, 3) the NDP by all accounts is up to at least 30% in Saskatchewan/Manitoba and usually that means a higher number in Saskatchewan than Manitoba where the Liberal vote is higher.
But the most important factor is the Conservatives themselves. When they accused Paul Martin of supporting child porn they looked like fools. As of June 21st they still haven't apologized and they've accused 11NDP MP's of this too, Including Proctor. Of course all those accused are outraged but Proctor's comments calling the Conservatives out of line have been well documented in the media and these comments show integrity, intelligence and a genuine disgust for the suggestions. This will end up hurting the Conservatives -- the NDP's main competition in Saskatchewan. Many Liberals will run towards Proctor to block the Conservatives from getting in and many moderate Conservatives may do the same -- or at the very least will stay home out of disgust. Now this whole development may play well to the Conservative base but that's just it will discourage enough swing voters even if it is only a couple hundred people from voting Conservative and that will hand the riding to Proctor. No body supports child pornography and people from Palliser will see this "American-style" political game played by the Conservatives in a bad light. It's really quite sad that this issue will have such an affect because it really shouldn't be politicized but it will affect enough voters to prevent the Conservatives from winning.
20/06/04 Jordan Timm
Email: [hidden]

Though it pains me to say it, I suggest that this be reassigned as To Close To Call considering:
- the originally slim margin of victory
- Layton's dispute with members of his caucus, especially Bill Blaikie, over the Clarity Act
- COMPAS poll numbers that show a Conservative lead (http://www.compas.ca/polls/040611-Palliser-EP.htm)
12/06/04 HAS
COMPAS Poll of June 11/04 shows Batters (Conservative) at 40%, Proctor (NDP) at 35% and Williams (Liberal) at 23%. That and the combined PC and CA vote from 2000 indicates a Conservative pickup from the NDP.
12/06/04 MLJ
Email: leemj@eudoramail.com
Compas had the Tories winning this riding, though Proctor was only 5 points behind. As well, I expect Jack Layton to do a fair bit of campaigning in the Midwest (he aleady launched his Saskatchewan schpiel), to rescue his ailing MP's out here. This one is too close to call, or, if you believe Compas, Conservative.
12/06/04 W.N.
Email: [hidden]
Last week the local media paid for an opinion poll in this riding. It showed(decided voters): Batters at 40%, Proctor at 35% and Williams at 23%. However, the sample size was only 300 so the difference between Batters and Proctor is within the margin of error. At the moment, this one should probably be marked as too close to call.
Dick Proctor is trailing in the Compass poll to the conservative. In MB/SK the NDP vote is falling and the Conservative vote is growing. This one is too close to call.
12/06/04 Brad
Email: [hidden]
Excerpt from the June 11 Compas Poll on Palliser:
"The NDP may lose its current rural Saskatchewan House of Commons seat of Palliser in the upcoming election despite the NDP's growing support nationally, according to a COMPAS riding poll (N=300) conducted for the National Post, Global Television, and Leader-Post.
Conservative candidate Dave Batters, with 40% of the decided vote, may edge out incumbent New Democrat MP Dick Proctor, who has 35% of the vote, as shown in table 1. Liberal Candidate John Williams trails with 23% of the decided vote. With a margin of error of 5.8 percentage points, Batters victory over Proctor is suggestive, not certain. "
Sounds like a "too close to call" to me.
11/06/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
A new COMPAS poll shows that David Batters is in the lead with 40% and Dick Proctor is coming in with 35%. This riding will go Conservative come June 28.
11/06/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
I note today's COMPAS riding poll suggesting that Proctor is behind by 5%, within the margin of error, but suggestive that the Conservative campaign here...and most likely in Saskatchewan generally, has more momentum than previously thought.
11/06/04 The Mongoose
Email: [hidden]
Compas conducted a poll in this riding that shows Proctor losing to Batters by 5 points. With the Tories now pulling into a narrow but noticeable lead in the national polls, Palliser is one of those seats that is going to swing over. Palliser has no interest in electing a Liberal, but they don't want an opposition MP forever. Now that they've got a chance to vote against the Liberals AND vote with the winning party, this riding is going blue.
11/06/04 Thomas Cranmer
Email: letstalk@sympatico.ca
In no way is this riding going NDP. According to a COMPAS poll in today's National Post (June 11, 2004) of 12 key ridings, a knockout victory for the Tories over the NDP is in the making in Palliser. David Batters has 40% support while Dick Proctor has 35% support. The caviat? If Palliser voters are asked which party they would vote for without regard for the candidate, the Tory lead widens by another 5%. Tory gain.
11/06/04 Mark
Email: [hidden]
NDP policies that are popular in downtown Toronto are not popular with the NDP crowd here. NDP support is a holdover from the Tommy Douglas Religious perspective on socialism, and would be better described as Social Conservatism. New issues have decreased reverence for the NDP further than in previous elections. Even though National NDP numbers are up, this is rural riding in reality, which will give an advantage to the Conservative Party.
With 1200 PC votes up in the Air, a green vote on the far left, unknown liberal support and Christian Heritage on the far right, this should be too close to call.
15/06/04 Victor A.
Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com
As much as I hate to admit it, Dick Proctor is as expected in major trouble and now this is comfirmed by the latest Compas poll. I admit that when I saw the NDP level of support in Saskatchewan and Manitoba at 14 % two weeks ago I knew trouble was on its way for the likes of Dick Proctor, Pat Martin and maybe Judy W.-S. In this riding of Pallister trails the CP cadidate Dave Batters by 5 %, 35 % to 40 %. I wonder is any Saskatchewan/Manitoba friends could give us some scoop on the likeability of their provincial governments... By the way, the Grits are 3rd with 23 % and the margin of error is 5.8 % 19 times out of 20.
15/06/04 D M
Email: [hidden]
I would have agreed with the conventional wisdom on Palliser, but the recent poll results do not bode well for the NDP. Crop's key riding poll done on Palliser shows the Conservative candidate in the lead and today's Ipsos-Reid poll shows the Conservatives surging in Sask/MB. I expect that the trends are making even Mr. Goodale nervous, although I think Palliser will go Conservative before Goodale's seat.
15/06/04 SJ
Email: [hidden]
JT suggests that the NDP performance will surpass 2000's close shave; I beg to differ. A recent COMPAS poll of the riding showed Proctor trailing Dave Batters of the Conservative Party of Canada; it also showed -- no surprise to those who live in the riding -- that both Lorne Calvert and Jack Layton poll pretty negatively here. Yes, the NDP numbers are up nationally; it's easy to focus on that and forget that NDP numbers are flat or shrinking here in Mouseland.
A second point: the bulk of Palliser is not in Regina but in Moose Jaw and the small communities between. This is a predominantly *rural* riding, and where it isn't, Reginans know that Jack Layton's urban agenda doesn't mean prairie cities (even if our mayor doesn't -- and why *doesn't* Fiacco know that the urban agenda is an intrusion on provincial jurisdictions?).
A third point: Ipsos-Reid has found that decided Conservative voters are far and away the most likely to vote on June 28th. Those of us doorknocking in Palliser are not surprised.
Where's the panel? Time to color this one too close to call.
29/05/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
If Dick Proctor didn't lose this seat in 2000 when the NDP was in the cellar he won't lose it now. The Conservatives will give him a run for the money. Final analysis: NDP 41% CPC 35% LIB 22% OTHER 2%
12/05/04 t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
The NDP numbers have gone up because of Layton being centered in Toronto. This riding will be close, and it will go Conservative. Do people really think outside of people in the riding, and a few politically intelligent people that there is two NDP MPs in Saskatchewan?
08/05/04 DL
Email: [hidden]
Who cares what the combined PC/CA vote was in this riding last year. The combined CA/PC vote across Canada in 2000 was 38%. No poll shows them any higher than 28% this time. Meanwhile NDP support is DOUBLE what it was in 2000. Any seat that went NDP during the 2000 debacle will go NDP this time by a huge margin.
05/05/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
If this riding is going to be predicted at all, than it should be going Conservative not NDP. The combined totall shows a slim win for the Conservative party. The fact that hardly anybody outside this riding even know this riding is NDP, just goes to show just how unknown the MP has been. With a moderate Conservative party reaching to all groups, and with a NDP budget provincially failling to deal with rural Saskatchewan issues, enough people will remember this when they go to vote.
23/04/04 Joe
Email: [hidden]
I don't see why this riding is being called for the NDP when the combined PC/Alliance vote was higher then the NDP last time. Sadly Liberals don't have much of a shot at this one I'm betting. This should be change to "Too Close to Call".
26/03/04 Jesse Hoffman
Email: [hidden]
Travis: "Al I don't know what numbers you are looking at, but all numbers show that the Conservative party has gone up more than the NDP has"
Actually I'm not too sure what your talking about. Al said since 2000. In the 2000 election the combined Alliance/PC support was 37.5%, and the latest Ipsos poll has them at 26%. In contrast the NDP was at 8.5% in 2000, compared to 17-18% now. The Conservatives are down 11.5% and the NDP are up 9%. As for the riding, it's a very close race, but I can't see the Conservatives winning. I'd give the NDP a slight edge over the Liberals right now but it's really too close to call.
24/03/04 S.J.
Email: [hidden]
The current predictions are forgetting the stench of Adscam. Previous elections results show strong third-party support for the Liberals, but support that has been dropping -- they took more votes in 1997 than in 2000. I suspect that that support will drop still further in the coming election, and it is unlikely to go to Proctor. Let's face it, this is Saskatchewan: if you aren't already voting NDP, you probably aren't gonna. And the Conservatives are running a strong, moderate candidate who should be able to appeal to disenchanted Liberals (are there any Liberals who are still enchanted?) and to committed Conservative / PC / Alliance voters.
23/03/04 Peter Kelly
Email: [hidden]
Conservatives don't get it. The 2000 election results are not applicable here. The Conservatives are in third place in Sask. and this is not a seat they are going to win, condsidering the NDP won it in a low election year.
20/03/04 Adam B.
Email: polski_69@hotmail.com
Again - vote splitting alone seems to give the Conservatives about a 2% edge over the NDP incumbent here. I would guess that since this looks like a winnable riding, enough investment from the Conservatives would result in the riding shifting to the Tories.
20/03/04 RC
Email: [hidden]
Richard Proctor is simply the hardest working MP on the hill. No other MP has brought home more grant money for his senior citizens, youth centres etc. than him. He is well connected both within his own party and within parliament as a whole. The guy simply knows how the system works. Heck, I know a lot of Reform-Alliance-Conservative types who like the guy! He has my vote, my wife's vote, the dog's and the cat's too.
21/03/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
With the last elections results showing a Conservative win, with both PC, and Alliance party put together, this riding will be close, but will go Conservative in the end.
17/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Often sited as the most forgotten NDP MP, Procter is not well knowen outside of Saskatchewan, but within the province, and within his riding, he is rather popular. I think he will quite easily re-take it, increasing his lead.
Email: [hidden]
Dick Proctor is a fairly popular MP, plus the NDP riding association here has become quite active in the community. It should be a fairly easy hold.
15/03/04 Full Name
Email: Jesse_Hoffman100@hotmail.com
The NDP have been steadily rising over the past year, and all their incumbents are safe. Palliser is no different. Dick Procter will have no trouble retaining his seat.

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